 Poster: A snowHead
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| Sorry to pester you |
No worries. I don't want anyone to use me instead of the local forecasters - which is why it's good that David@traxvax puts his local forecast on here too, and I don't want to give anyone the impression that I am better than I am at this. I'm interested and would like to get to the point where I can be useful to people, but don't think I'm close, yet.
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| It's funny how you get completely obsessed with having ideal conditions when you are about to travel. |
Well most of us don't get many goes each year, so it's understandable, I think. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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....and does David say it's going to snow loads followed by clear blue sky???? 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Bad weather from tomorrow to Tues. |
Nearly.
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brian
brian
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You can get a rough idea of freezing level for the GFS forecasts by looking at the 850hPa temperature charts. A pressure of 850hPa usually corresponds to an altitude of 1500m-ish and you drop about a degree celsius every 100m up. So this chart
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/wz/pics/Rtavn482.html
would show a freezing level of 1700-1900m or thereabouts for France/Switzerland.
I did say it was a rough idea
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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brian, thanks for that. I was using a much more convoluted method and (probably) making mistakes in the process. The simple methods are better, and often easily overlooked. I'll use that one in future. 
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PG, yeah, they've followed the GFS output (unless the French model closely agrees with it).
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PG where do you get the meteo F info from, I cannot get this detail from the meteo.fr web site?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Matthew Way, you can't get it directly any more, but you can get the Les Arcs 4 day from this link...
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Thanks
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Snowing in La Rosiere this morning.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Latest FAX charts keeping it cold next week. Looks like the snow will ease off after Tuesday. Models more in agreement for the beginning fo the week and there's a hint of possibly more snow for the end of the week.
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Just thought I'd mention that after a little drizzle early on, the snow has been falling steadily (down to 800m) since lunchtime....
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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That said, the sun is creeping into the picture for Sunday and Monday on the 4 day forecast, only yesterday there were double snowflakes virtually across the board. Does this mean the front is going to pass further to the east?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Dunno, they've probably had the GFS 12z charts which aren't freely available yet. Will be out soon though.
[EDIT:] Reminding myself of the 06z charts (and the FAX charts) the front will pass through overnight and you'll be in a strong northerly airstream after that. The amount of precip you get after the front will depend on the properties of that air mass. It could be that the front is moving through more quickly than they expected (which would be a good thing in terms of temperature as it'll cool it down more quickly) or they think the following air mass will be drier, or more likely, something else I haven't considered.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Okay well 12z out now. 'Sfunny, although I can see the potential for breaks on Sunday, I'd swap the Monday & Tuesday icons on that forecast, if it was me compiling it. 
It's also severely downgraded the chance of any significant amounts of new stuff next weekend - though that's way too far ahead at the moment.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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If you're right, Meteo France have a meteorological station in Bourg St Maurice, perhaps you should get a job, show'em how it's done!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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skanky et al, this is a great thread !! very useful indeed
... would it be too much to pry into the favourite links to weather sites that you dip into to formulate your much awaited snow forecast updates ?
ta
d
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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skanky, excellent work
... thanks for those, now all i need to do is go and dig up my old geography college notes and actually read the sections on how to read weather maps (i really should have paid attention at the time) 
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doogo, I'm re-learning it all again, too. I even had (basic) Met O training and forgot it all. You'll probably not have some of the model output covered by your geography books though (the web will be better for those, or a decent NWP book), but they should help with the FAX charts. School level geograpy tends to teach the Norwegian model (standard low pressure system with warm, cold & occluded front). The situations to forecast just using that model is increasing uncommon these days, I think. Which is why I need to re-learn loads as that's most of what I remember.
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Interesting agreement between the models for most of the week. UKMO FAX and GFS are very similar until about Thursday. There should be more snow tomorrow then it'll start dying out as the HP over Spain ridges eastwards and a low pressure system over the Balkans and southern Italy. This set-up should bring cold air down from the NE. There may be a few snow showers from the odd trough or weak front, but there probably won't be much, if any - Austria and Eastern Switaerland will get most of it, I should think. Come Friday and everyone starts to disagree a little. GFS deteriorates the high pressure to the west and brings a low pressure system down the north sea bringing precipitation down through Europe during the weekend (mainly Sunday). However UKMO, ECMWF, JMA & GEM all keep the high (in largely the same position it is now) send it further west (by varying degrees), over Germany & Poland. The GFS track would bring more precipitation to the whole of the Alps whereas the others will deflect more of it to the east and over Austria. The latter scenario is more in keeping with the way this winter's gone so far, and GFS can have problems with blocks so, at the moment, I'd be inclined to say the easterly track is the more likely.
[EDIT:] Just realised that the ECMWF charts I was looking at are yesterday's. Last night's run shows a stronger correlation with GFS (the GFS charts are from this morning).
Usual caveats apply.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Latest (12z) GFS run brings everything forward slightly and upgrades the precipitation for Austria & parts of Switzerland this week. Still talking aboyt some stuff for the whole Alps next weekend, but how far west will depend on the exact state of the Atlantic HP & Baltic LP (which GFS has downgraded slightly). Waiting for the 12z ECMWF & UKMOs now as ECMWF has both the HP & LP slightly NE and UKMO more so again (that's 00z runs). I'd keep your brass monkeys indoors for most of this week (though it looks like it'll warm up a bit next weekend - though not to the same extent that it did this last saturday).
[EDIT:] Well UKMO 12z has moved a little closer to ECMWF, but there's still a pesky ridge over the western Alps. We'll have to watch how the models develop over the next few days. Keep your eyes on next Sat/Sun/Mons charts. Note, there's a potential there for a little something for Blighty, too - too early to get excited about though.
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Blocking HP system in the Atlantic looking to form which should send any LPs and air masses northwards via the Arctic Circle. Though there is some warm air mixed in this should bring some cold air south into western Europe. The low pressure currently to the NW should be dragged down through Scandinavia turning the northerlies in north-easterlies and might bring some more easterly flow (to the UK at least). Scandinavia should get very cold next week.
Cold in the Alps for the foreseeable future. Some light stuff in the east, little or none in the west, south or Pyrennees for the rest of the week (Pyrennees may get a little on Friday if the warm front gets further south than currently predicted). Cold front moving down through Saturday should bring some stuff (probably not a massive dump, though too early to know) to all areas with Pyrennees & southern Alps getting the least and possibly missing out. Behind that cold northerlies perhaps swinging NE as the wee goes on keeping it very cold. Should be some precip and cloud in the northerly airstream, esp. on the northerly sides of the mountains.
Good general agreement at the moment, with some detail variation, which again can make all the difference to snow amounts.
Looking further ahead, could be a very cold spell in most of northern and western Europe coming up. When the blocking high finall collapses (if indeed it becomes fully established), we could see some very warm (moist) air brought up from the SW - whether this makes it into the Alps is totally unforeseeable.
Usual caveats apply esp. as the GFS has already modified it's prediction between the 00z and 06z runs.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skanky, you need one of these... it'll save you time...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Check out the new sig.
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Update, well we now have quite a strong agreement bewteen UKMO (12z), ECMWF (00z) & GFS (12z) for the scenario shown above. 12z ECMWF out soon.
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You know it makes sense.
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Can any of you experts forecast for Wengen. Going there a week on Thursday.(24th) I know that's too far in the future tp be certain of anything, but any best guesses???
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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gregh, thanks for the feedback.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Brian T, not an expert but best guess so far is very cold. Should be some more snow between now and then, and may well be some at that point as there may be (the remnants of) a low pressure hanging around. Far too far for much confidence about that, but all the models are currently running the LP down through central Europe, so it's a matter of whether they stick with that over the next few days and how quickly it fills and/or moves off.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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skanky, if the following is correct:
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When the blocking high finall collapses (if indeed it becomes fully established), we could see some very warm (moist) air brought up from the SW - whether this makes it into the Alps is totally unforeseeable.
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when will it rain in the alps? One weeks time? Two weeks time?
And, yes, i've seen you new sig 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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sugardaddy, I'm not sure it will rain in the Alps, it's just that the set-up that's being touted will push HP north so it's quite possible (possibly even favourite) that it will collapse from the south. If this does a LP system will move in from the west and will bring stuff up from the SW. Whether it brings precipitation to the Alps is impossible to know at the moment and also whether it'll be warm enough for rain in the Alps - it's worth looking out for, if the predicted set-up comes about. If the set-up does come about, and that set-up does collapse in that way, then it won't be before the 25th at the earliest.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Skanky... I'm interested in your theories about what seems to make the snow years for different regions vary? For example, last year the Southern Alps got LOADS of snow and had a bumper year, whilst Austria didn't do so well. This year, it's an exact reverse.
Are the weather systems such that this will always be the case? I.e. does a good year for Austria necessarily mean that a bad year for the Southern Alps will have occurred? Why does it tend to last a season too... it seems rare that the pattern gets broken and once a "good year" or "bad year" pattern is established, it tends to stay that way throughout the season as far as I can tell.
What weather system is needed to dump snow in the Southern alps (he says desperately, 5 weeks away from his Serre Chevalier holiday...) ? High pressure over Easter Europe or the other way around or even something completely different... (insert Monty Python joke here)
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Skanky... I'm interested in your theories about what seems to make the snow years for different regions vary? For example, last year the Southern Alps got LOADS of snow and had a bumper year, whilst Austria didn't do so well. This year, it's an exact reverse. |
Blimey, well to be honest I don't know. I have only just started following the weather for anything like a ncontinuous period and half a season isn't really enough experience to notice any patterns. Ask me again in ten years.
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| Are the weather systems such that this will always be the case? I.e. does a good year for Austria necessarily mean that a bad year for the Southern Alps will have occurred? Why does it tend to last a season too... it seems rare that the pattern gets broken and once a "good year" or "bad year" pattern is established, it tends to stay that way throughout the season as far as I can tell. |
I don't think so, I'm sure in the past there have been times when the whole of Europe has done well. There are possibly three/four different scenarios (1) a LP system moves W->E through central/northern Europe trailing fronts through the whole of the Alps. (2) HP system to W sends LP systems and fronts round a more northerly track and down through the eastern side of the Alps (this year) (3) A combination of (different) HP positions (over centra Europe) sends the LP systems on a more southerly track down through France, Switzerland and Italy (4) LP systems move up through the Med into the area around Nice (this could occur in conjunction with the others). I've probably missed some and may have one or two a bit wrong - for example in scenario (1) the fronts may have degraded by the time they reach Austria, esp. if there's a large HP in eastern Europe.
This year we've seen a lot of (2) though I think the southern Alps got some stuff early on from (4) though someone else can confirm that as I wasn't paying a lot of attention at the time. Can't say for certain about the past but these days patterns (especially ones involving the situation of large HP systems) tend to remain for most of season.
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| What weather system is needed to dump snow in the Southern alps (he says desperately, 5 weeks away from his Serre Chevalier holiday...) ? High pressure over Easter Europe or the other way around or even something completely different... (insert Monty Python joke here) |
5 weeks is a long time, so no panic yet. There should be some (amounts unknown) over all the Alps this weekend and possibly into early next week.
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Set to warm up a little (don't expect it to be a problem though) over the weekend with snow to most/all areas of the alps and pyrennees (maybe towards the end of the weekend, start of week). Next week is looking to be a bit of a stunner and if latest FAX charts are to be believed there might be more snow in Blighty than in the Alps, though all areas will remain cold. There should be a LP system moving SE over central Europe which should bring some stuff to parts of Europe (maybe not heavy, but over the week I'd expect a reasonably amount). That system though should (might) bring some easterly blasts of air (with embedded troughs) into the UK - bringing snow and cold temperatures to many parts of the country esp. north & east (Scotland should be superb). Still a long way to go (we're talking after the weekend - there's the northerly airflow to cope with over the weekend) and the details will change but all the models and FAX are showing it now, so I find it hard to believe that the general set-up will change.
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Meteo for La Rosiere still shows very cold but unsettled weather for next few days, thunderstorms predicted for tomorrow, -18 in the village at the moment. Now got 245 cms of snow on the mountain and 165 cms in the village.
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brian
brian
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skanky, if the current GFS FI were to come true, I may be living in an igloo by the end of the month
Even in the worth-talking-about timeframe, Glenshee and the Lecht could be seriously tasty by this time next week !!
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FAQ
). However if it was all to go completely about face, I think we'll still definitely see the northerlies which'll bring more to the Scottish resorts. 