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GFS ensembles in the alps

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like they are forecasting zero degrees at sea level until early Feb, this is from Tues 23rd! Yes, that is Cryogenic Skullie Let's hope the wind does not blow. Snow is forecast but I'm taking comfort in the difficulty of forecasting how much it's going to dump snowHead Let's all hope it's a good amount.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
Snow-forecast has now updated itself and looks depressing, far less precipitation forecast. I would be less bothered about that (as they never get quantities right) if locals, e.g. ski hire shop proprietor, were not making faces about the "peu" de precipitation expected. They are not cheerful locally. If it had got cold without this terrible rain they could have started blowing snow, and keeping the existing snow in decent nick for a bit longer. As it is, there will be very little skiing available below 2500m without a really good dump. Val Thorens here we come.


The big problem is that the northerlies very quickly become NEerlies, which means that they bring dry air in, which means little snow. The dump around Tuesday is due to a low pressure system that forms around northen Italy and feeds on the air coming down the N Sea. Once this depression moves away East, the high pressure to the west of the UK moves and expands E and SE and thus shuts off the feed of moist air from the oceans. If the models have that wrong, and the high pressure stays further west, then we may well get more snow. Also, if another low pressure forms that drags warmer air from the Med. to meet the colder air from the NE we will get snow. There's no sign of that yet, but the models are a bit up in teh air about everything after Tues/Weds anyway.

The silver lining is that there should be snow around Tues (exact timing is also variable at the moment), and afterwards it will be cold enough for artificial snow on top of whatever base this dump brings. At the moment, I wouldn't say that it'll bring classic conditions, but it will re-enable decent skiing again.

I think it's still open for after the 27th, but the high pressure does look like re-establishing itself.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I don't know what everyones whinging about..... At least with all this rain they will have some water to pump trough the snow cannons!!! You see, if you try hard enough you can be positive!
Just booked to go to Les Contamines on 10th Feb, lets hope the natives are wearing big grins and snow drifts on there heads when we get there!! snowHead snowHead snowHead
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
Bumpity-bump to keep it near the top.... snowHead
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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ok guys, does this look good?

It looks like it is slightly warmer than the 30 year average, but a good deal of precipitation!

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_1247_ens.png
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
the main forecaster on the skipass.com French forum says:

"en tout cas en dessous de 1500 m ca sent le rinçage"

Doesn't look good next week for lower slopes. Rain. But there's time for it to change......for better or worse.
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