 Poster: A snowHead
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Webcams of resorts in the Tarentaise show a sprinkling of snow above 2,400 metres this morning ... but as @polo says ... it's only mid-October. Still very early to start talking about whether this is going to be a good, average or bad season.
And I've just looked at the historic webcam data for the Tougnette ridge above Meribel - the first real snowfall of 2022 was on 4 November.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Has a feeling of a nice sensible start , doing what it’s supposed to do snow cover starting high up and gradually moving down the mountain . No doubt we will have are usual dry three weeks just to give everyone the collywobbles
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@Rob Mackley, agreed. Seasonal temperatures and useful precipitation for the glaciers at the very least.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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There are currently 11 ski resorts open in Western, Eastern and Northern Europe, less than 1% of total.
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@Whitegold, Judging by the retreat and recent years I doubt we’ll ever see Tignes glacier open for oct half term again
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| @Whitegold, Judging by the retreat and recent years I doubt we’ll ever see Tignes glacier open for oct half term again |
Don't be so pessimistic. In 10,000 years during the next ice age, snow depths will be epic 
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In 10k years, Aberdeen will be like Miami...
Yes, 10-20 years ago, Tignes was open 365 days a year. Now it struggles to make 200 days. The speed of melt is astonishing.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
In 10k years, Aberdeen will be like Miami...
Yes, 10-20 years ago, Tignes was open 365 days a year. Now it struggles to make 200 days. The speed of melt is astonishing. |
Come on son, you can’t get predictions right a few months ahead let alone 10000 years 
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it is only october ... and we had a lovely start to last season ... then it rained ...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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The met office do a weekly detailed (deep dive ) forcast each Tuesday on You Tube https://www.youtube.com/@metoffice
They show the european and US weather models as well as their own.
Sometimes they match sometimes they don't 
Not over technical but a step up from what's on apps etc
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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France today has 5-15cm above ~2500m.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Whitegold, so what?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @Whitegold, so what? |
Why are you posting comments like this in a weather thread?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Wetter than forecast here, was supposed to be dry this morning but steady bonus drizzle always a possibility under a low. Gonna get a lot heavier from now until 29-30th.
2023 sea ice is currently increasing 14% faster than the 10year average. Total extent is below the 80-90-00's average (not shown) but is in line with 2010-20 avg, having just passed 7million km2. The faster and more widespread the arctic snow cover gets established, the better in terms of europe winter prospects. Scandinavia is important here and is doing exceptionally well this early.
 
Read an interesting piece from Roger Smith about lunar influence. This winter will see a high lunar declination range, which is correlated with blocking and high amplitude ridges, ie meridional jet, cold to mid lats. He says to look for high levels of blocking around full moons, which occur near the end of each month this winter. And more stormy episodes around the new moons, 10-15th of each month.
Also a Matt Hugo piece where he focused on the pacific and a favourable MJO phase likely this winter. Meaning he also expects northern blocking nov-dec and a wavy jet in what he describes as a "mouth watering outlook for cold winter fans".
Both of those experts are UK focused but nice to see them reach the same outlook from vastly different sources.
Wepowder have an update out this week but nothing unexpected from my point of view. They do have 2 very good general articles on pressure systems and the jet stream for those interested.
https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/285206
https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/281467
Near term, comparing the GFS and ECM ensemble outlooks, you can clearly see how GFS is a few degrees colder than ECM almost throughout the run. I suspect there is model bias here, but either way you have to be wary of projected GFS freeze levels as being a little too low. Good to see agreement for temps to steadily trend lower in early Nov, with very busy precipitation profiles on both.
 
Halloween temps....most models showing a chilly -4c 850hpa over northern UK, although oddly GFS 06z has now switched milder, out on it's own there. For the alps, probably +6 to 7c at 1400-1500m.
     
Looking 9 days ahead at the means for 3rd Nov, it seems the atlantic low will try once again to push east under the northern blocking. A repeat of the pattern seen last week, which will end up stalling to the west (28th). So third time lucky hopefully. We need to lose the heights over SE europe and see them rise near the azores in order to force the lows far enough into europe to pull down cold air via N/NE.
  
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Noob921 wrote: |
| under a new name wrote: |
| @Whitegold, so what? |
Why are you posting comments like this in a weather thread? |
Because whitesmurf (who is as seasoned old timer as anyone) knows very well that it's meaningless, but insists on making similar comments every year? And it's not helpful?
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@polo, back on the important stuff, I'm struggling to understand the mechanism between lunar declination and the weather (and would be interested to know just how strong the correlation is?) but the last Major Lunar Standstill (max declination if I understand correctly) was October 2006 and - as anecdote - my early season 06/07 photos from the PdS and Monterosa all look pretty good for late Dec and Jan.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@under a new name, no idea, just quoting the man
Profile on Mr Smith here
https://futureweatherinc.wordpress.com/the-author-roger-j-smith-2/
He cited 2 papers conclusions that he has verified with his own research, Bryson 1950 and Lamb 1975. Haven't found the papers, but did read that Lamb said the correlation was statistically significant.....and I can't even find that article either....maybe someone with more time.
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@polo, This Lamb?
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/byauthor/lamb_hh.htm
Papers might be:
Lamb, H.H., 1975
“The Earth's changing climate.”
In: Encyclopaedia Britannica Book of the Year 1975.
(keywords: climate change historical global)
Lamb, H.H., 1975
“Changes of climate: the perspective of time scales and a particular exami nation of recent changes.”
In: Ice Ages: Ancient and Modern (Eds. A.E. Wright and F. Mosel ey), pp.169-188 Geol. J. Special Issue No.6.
(keywords: climate change historical records methodology observations)
Lamb, H.H., 1975
“Changes of climate: the perspective of time scales and a particular exami nation of recent changes.”
In: Ice Ages: Ancient and Modern (Eds. A.E. Wright and F. Mosel ey), pp.169-188 Seel House Press, Liverpool.
(keywords: climate change historical records)
Lamb, H.H., 1975
“Our understanding of the global wind circulation and climatic variations.”
Bird Study 22, 121-141
(keywords: wind climate change global)
Lamb, H.H., 1975
“Remarks on the current climatic trend and its perspective.”
In: Proc. of the WMO/IAMAP Symp. on Long-term Climatic Fluctuat ions, Norwich 18-23, August 1975, pp.473-477
(keywords: climate change historical records)
Lamb, H.H., Dickson, R.R., Malmberg, S.A. and Colebrook, J.M., 1975
“Climatic reversal in the North Atlantic.”
Nature 256, 497-481
(keywords: climate change Atlantic oceans)
But maybe not so easy to source online?
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@under a new name, take it you work in Chamonix central library? 
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@twoodwar, I don't but I was curious and had the time to look. Probably need to work in a library to source those.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@polo, well done. I think what they were really trying to achieve was to bring exogenous_to_the_atmosphere effects into the then-nascent climate discussion and the lunar thing dropped out of it. No-one else has picked up on it (?) I don't think and I suspect Mr Smith is very retired unto maybe death.
I also not that they looked at rainfall vs full moon with no correlation. You may be aware that the hoary locals (yokels? crétins?) of many 2 Savoies valleys ascribe (usually in crap snow years) a belief that the weather changes with the moon. Which is total bollox in my experience, having lived thru not a few snow droughts.
/END
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Wed 25-10-23 17:10; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@under a new name, no he's definitely still not dead, he posts on netweather.tv once in a while, and that's the origin of my interest.....it's his winter 23/24 forecast, about a week ago
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@polo, I'll check that out, thanks. @Rob Mackley, Always good. Just as much fun as the "it won't last, the grounds not cold enough" nonsense.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Potential first big snow of the year around 3rd or 4th November for the west alpes.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Lake Louise, western Canada, got 30cm this week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @polo, I'll check that out, thanks. @Rob Mackley, Always good. Just as much fun as the "it won't last, the grounds not cold enough" nonsense. |
On this:
How many days of consistently sub zero weather do the look for at a resort before they turn the snowmaking on for the season? I assume anything short of 10 days or so would be just a waste of water? I believe that higher than -2 snowmaking is now a thing though but that wouldn't affect this calculation as it would it?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@afterski, hmmm, good question, I don't know, but what they are (usually) maling is termed "concrete" - heavy wet snow that freezes solid but can be moved to where it's needed and lasts quite a long time - esp for making a good base. In January, I suspect that 2 or 3 days solid (at least overnight) cold (maybe even just one) will get the cannons running.
On the other side, a day of freezing followed by two forecast weeks of rain and they won't bother.
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@under a new name, Yeah I'm really curious about first thing in the season (10th December to Obergurgl). So most of the early bases at early open resorts come from farmed snow then? (or glaciers looking at the FIS Zermatt thread!!!) Then when its cold they just make a load concrete and distribute that?
Might do a quick google on snowmaking... Should kill an hour or two.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@afterski, I can only speak of the stations I know best , especially Sainte Foy and Val d’Isere . Val and Tignes will start snow making as soon as possible as they will endeavour to have as much terrain open as possible especially in Val on the race pistes for the early season World Cups , its very normal for it to be cold enough at nights to start around now. In Sainte Foy they will also start making snow asap as they also love to have the French and other country teams training on the stade before the Val races that has become a bit of a tradition in recent years . Normally above 1500m the temperatures fall low enough in November especially at night and it’s not unusual to have a cold week or two when every gun will be running . Remember they make huge piles first and don’t spread it about so any warm days or rain doesn’t really affect it .
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Thu 26-10-23 18:16; edited 1 time in total
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@Rob Mackley, and to that exact point, I saw a post on Facebook a couple days ago that Val d'Isere had started their snow cannons.
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@Handy Turnip, if that was the same post that I saw, it was incorrect: they were just testing (or purging?!) the cannons rather than actually making any snow. Hopefully not long now though!
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| denfinella wrote: |
| @Handy Turnip, if that was the same post that I saw, it was incorrect: they were just testing (or purging?!) the cannons rather than actually making any snow. Hopefully not long now though! |
Ahh I stand corrected! I did think it felt a bit early.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Remember they make huge piles first and don’t spread it about so any warm days or rain doesn’t really affect it . |
Ahh this is the key part I was missing. I was basically wondering how a thin covering could survive a warmer day after a cold night. The answer is that there is no thin covering....
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@afterski, Yep spot on
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FAQ
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