 Poster: A snowHead
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@extremerob, yep good summary.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@extremerob, thanks for the interesting link.
Out of interest, how do they choose the range of initial conditions? Do they play with the variances in the input measurements to do it? Another approach might be to omit each measurement in turn to try different starting conditions, except that presumably they don't all carry equal weight.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks extremerob.
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Wasn’t the exact same wepowder ensemble link posted just 2 pages ago and the crowd didn’t go wild? What’s different this time? Haven’t been paying attention to this thread so I could be wrong.
Anyway with a few failed forecasts so far, the anticipated La Niña imprint has been trumped by an uninvited El Niño pattern up to now. Forget long range forecasts, they will all fail as well.
Don’t lose sight of the reliable timeframe, most models showing 10cm-15cm this Friday down to 1500m in NW alps. With a bit of luck enough for the first meadow slide.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo, i think people were just being polite. I guess posts come and go some get noticed some don‘t. If there is a rhyme or reason it’s escaped me.
Anyway yes a first little taster coming up.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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"I'm not on  24/7"....well that's a big plus, me neither, I just skimmed thru this thread looking for interesting links, so easily noticed that the 2 better ones were exactly the same....anyway, am just throwing some credit towards the first poster, a newcomer.....cause if you ain't first, you're not winning any of the paying attention awards. More of an oversight than anything.
More importantly, UKMO now joins in with decent snow coverage to reasonably low levels on Friday, starting off heavy at 1800-1900m and dropping to 1300m during the day....though more concentrated at the western end than other models.
Medium term there is a lot of noise at the far end of the GFS, not unusual for the time of year, but the overriding feature is the tendency to have low pressure in the Atlantic and highs to our east. This is classic +NAO / AO / El Nino. Generally wet and mild especially around British Isles, and more mild and dry in central europe. The global 4 wave pattern is stuck as it has been throughout October. I'd unscientifically estimate that the worst case for one of these is 6-8 weeks, so mid to late November might be the earliest we see a major shift. Better to have it now than in December.
Slight weakening forecast in the strat pv, before strengthening again, so no help visible there. Although there has been some wave pressure applied from tropospheric PV via high pressure over Alaska, Eastern NA and sometimes Scandi. The mechanism is probably not of interest to readers here, but higher lattitude blocking in the right areas at this time of year can weaken / stretch the growing polar vortex and subsequently slow down westerly zonality and lead to snowier outbreaks in mid lattitudes.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How accurate have these long-range forecasts been in the last few years?
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@südtirolistdeutsch, LRFs are not particularly accurate. Doesn’t mean they are automatically wrong mind you.
Snow this Friday will make things look pretty, but temperatures look like rising afterwards (not Tobake levels we’ve had recently mind you) and not much to get excited about in the follow up period from a snow perspective.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I am in the vicinity of Saalbach and Kitzbühel over the whole season, so I am hoping that we get snow and cold starting in at least early-mid December.
All these long range forecasts are worrying me, but what worries me more is superstition; that last year was exceptional with consistent snow in the valley from November on, which must mean that this year will be much warmer and drier
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some bad news that made the press over here:
1. Oct 30th was the latest 25c/77f day in CH ever.
2. ...and the hottest day later than Oct 20 in FR ever.
3. This October was the warmest October ever in AUT.
I don't really like Fall, but skipping it entirely wasn't my idea.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@südtirolistdeutsch, LRFs are not particularly accurate. Doesn’t mean they are automatically wrong mind you.
Snow this Friday will make things look pretty, but temperatures look like rising afterwards (not Tobake levels we’ve had recently mind you) and not much to get excited about in the follow up period from a snow perspective. |
Best go skiing on Saturday then
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You know it makes sense.
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@BobinCH, or indeed Sunday when the sun should be out if you happen to have a glacier in reach…
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Some white webcams in Epace Killy this morning.
Officially excited!!!!! 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Severe Weathers latest snowfall forecast 1st Nov despite the headline hasn’t improved much for the majority of the Alps , Still looking below average overall .
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 1-11-22 9:12; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Rob Mackley, how good are those v long range forecasts in terms of setting expectations that far out? Looking at last years at this time of year, it didn't seem to be all that on the money?
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@under a new name in answer to your question marginal , however the theme that is developing from the various agencies I follow is for average temps and below average precipitation with some cold interludes for the Western and Northern Alps this winter but better snowfall chances south of the Alpine Ridge in parts of Italy and the Southern Alps.
This article from the Telegraph suggests the Met office is also thinking along the dry and colder lines in UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/31/cold-winter-raises-spectre-energy-shortages/
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@südtirolistdeutsch, LRFs are not particularly accurate. Doesn’t mean they are automatically wrong mind you.
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You can say the same about a stopped clock.
I speak to some of the world's biggest wind farm operators. As you can imagine they would love to have reliable longer term forecasts. They say that they find zero value in models beyond 3 weeks.
Do you think that is wrong?
Not being argumentative, genuinely interested
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| Scooter in Seattle wrote: |
Some bad news that made the press over here:
1. Oct 30th was the latest 25c/77f day in CH ever.
2. ...and the hottest day later than Oct 20 in FR ever.
3. This October was the warmest October ever in AUT.
I don't really like Fall, but skipping it entirely wasn't my idea. |
We've been skipping Fall for centuries in the British Isles, having Autumn instead.
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Pic from the office at 3,200 feet. Heavy wet snow in Central Oregon this morning. More incoming later this week. Seems like the PNW is getting a nice start to things. Still way too early to get the hopes up. But things definitely look promising for British Columbia and the PNW. Will be up on the local hill with the dog on Saturday to play in the snow!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@jedster, the first half of the comment was doing more work than the second.
LRFs are interesting in that they may give you some sense of the overall background conditions, but that “may” carries a lot of weight. So I suspect we are pretty much in the same space.
For operational decisions such as a wind farm operator has to make its hard to see how they are useful. Certainly for tactical decisions such as should I book a ski holiday here or there they are pretty much pointless. For a more strategic perspective which wonders how the coming season might turn out, they may give you some very broad sense of what is going on, but even that is pretty tendentious.
So as I said they tend to end up having poor accuracy overall simply because seasonal climate let alone weather is too complex to make confident predictions about. So interesting as long as you don’t take them too seriously! 
Still that won’t stop the usual suspects predicting months out that it’s going to be an awful season, because that’s what they do. But given there’s beer over there and dancing over here, between now and then, that’ll probably do.
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What @nozawaonsen, says above makes sense, perhaps long range climate forecast might be a somewhat more accurate term than weather. There is a recent article https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-forecast-accuracy-snow-temperature-pressure-united-states-europe-verification-fa/ suggesting that longer term winter forecasts work reasonable well in western North America but less well elsewhere. I only skimmed through so might have missed something, the basic premise seems to be that El Nino / La Nina is one of the biggest factors in global weather patterns. As it is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon it's effects are fairly easy to model there and also for the adjoining areas (in this case the west coast of North America) further away the effects get diluted by many other factors so it becomes much more difficult to provide the forecasts.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@munich_irish, the article shows that one model had some success and some failure over a 3 month period in one season. Clearly the US is more under any ENSO influence than the rest of the world.
There are at least 10 major models trying to forecast global seasonal weather patterns. And at least another 10-20 noteworthy organizations/ individuals compiling forecasts, so it would be good to see a table of how they all perform over a long period of time. Even if one model / forecast happened to show high skill for 3 months it would need to repeat the trick consistently to have merit.
Even if that was proven, we are talking 3 month pressure anomalies over very wide areas (low resolution). Outside of simple historical pattern matching such as La Niña promotes pacific high and North American low, I don’t see how they can show any skill for snowfall, or even global temperature anomalies. There are many climate drivers in the background at any point in time and there’s the complication of constant climate change and feedback loops.
I mean you could just say Europe with be largely under high pressure with above average temperatures and you’d probably be right 75% of the time.
The UK Met, widely regarded as one of the best, has for years shown central Europe to be under high pressure all winter, yet the alps have had plenty of good seasons and even low pressure anomalies over several months.
I really fail to see any predictive value on a useful timescale, especially for Europe, but more particularly for snow in the alps.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Let’s stick to 1 to 2 weeks out then as a maximum! Does not everyone, not just me, discount long range forecasts?
On that point looking good for Zermatt this weekend
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Long range forecasts at this time of year have been a fixture of this thread for at least the last decade I’ve been following regardless if they have turned out to be right or wrong , this year they ain’t too favourable so not quite so welcome.
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You know it makes sense.
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Latest ECM & UK met office winter forecasts https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-more-snow-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ .
Both are a bit less negative in terms of overall snowfall than previously. ECM still suggesting a pretty snow free December for most of the alps. UK met office suggests areas south / west of the main ridge of the alps could see some good snowfalls. Both suggest Norway could be in for a good snow season. Usual comments about none of this implying that your "resort" wont have snow at Christmas, however December is only a few weeks away and beyond some snow over much of the alps in the next 48 hours nothing much else seems likely in the following 10 days.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Hard to see a quick route out of this...ECM mean at day 10, but all models are similar.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Rob Mackley, agreed and we’ll get them. It’s just really for the serious meteorology types. It’s just not that meaningful. I know we can’t help it and I read them as much as anyone. I was not seriously suggesting avoidance 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@twoodwar,
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Well, its nice to see some snow hitting the upper slopes of the PDS today, though its raining at resort level in Morzine & Les Gets. Hopefully gettting colder and precipitation keeps coming!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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SLF on recent snowfall.
“By Saturday midday, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated above approximately 2500m:
Northern Alpine Ridge, furthermost western part of Lower Valais, central sector of the Main Alpine Ridge from the Nufen Pass as far as the Bernina: 30 to 50 cm;
In the remaining regions of Switzerland, 20 to 30 cm over widespread areas.
At 2000 m altitude in the western regions, approximately 10 to 20 cm of fresh snow is anticipated, in the eastern regions 20 to 30 cm.”
https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#avalanchedanger
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Flew over the alps today on the way back to Munich. Lovely views of Lake Garda. There was some snow above around 2000m. The higher pistes around Madonna were pretty obvious (though I doubt enough snow for skiing). The Dolomites could be seen further off with snow on higher ground, I could even make out a few pistes there. The amount of snow seemed to increase nearer the main ridgeline but to the north there were clouds so could not really tell. Certainly a good deal more snow than on my trip south at the beginning of the week.
A report from the Arlberg Pass on the change in the weather (its in German, the woman interviewed says one day it was 20 degrees and the next she woke up to snow) https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/wintereinbruch-in-alpen--45bdccce-5511-4dce-aeda-e393c31aee09
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| A report from the Arlberg Pass on the change in the weather (its in German, the woman interviewed says one day it was 20 degrees and the next she woke up to snow) |
Sounds plausible. I have a reading from my balcony of 21C for Thursday afternoon, and was woken up about 6.30am on Friday by the torrential rain on the roof (this is unusual, I can generally sleep through anything). Snow on Friday down to around 1000m, but receded to about 1500m today. I haven't tried it out yet though, as I like my skis with bases intact 
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| Quote: |
| I haven't tried it out yet though, as I like my skis with bases intact |
Get yourself up to Hintertux Scarlet - it's looking pretty decent at the top of the Zillertal
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@mountainaddict, It's not on my pass...
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FAQ
(But seriously, lift passes are definitely becoming a dear do 
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