@Mike Pow, not necessarily a reputable news site, but the content mirrors interviews I've read with Prof. Ferguson today.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Not sure, but a not dissimilar story is in today's Times, but I cannot post a link to that version because The Times operates a paywall.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
My reading of https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/ which is a "real" source article, is that Prof Ferguson is saying that under lockdown conditions, the upcoming peak of deaths could be as low as 20,000. That's not the same as revising his model, it's telling us that under a different scenario (lockdown) we will have many fewer deaths.
Now I think of it, there was a letter in The Times about a week or two ago from a vet, who said his heart sank when he heard Govt was following the advice of the Imperial team. The vet blamed Imperial for what he felt was overly pessimistic advice, leading a policy of culling far too many healthy animals, under the last foot-and-mouth epidemic.
I have to say that today's Times piece carried a degree of scepticism from other researchers about the opposing Oxford study. Be that as it may, it does seem likely that Imperial's Prof Ferguson has shifted his stance - or was he simply misreported in the first instance?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
snowdave wrote:
My reading of https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/ which is a "real" source article, is that Prof Ferguson is saying that under lockdown conditions, the upcoming peak of deaths could be as low as 20,000. That's not the same as revising his model, it's telling us that under a different scenario (lockdown) we will have many fewer deaths.
I watched his evidence to the Science Select Committee and I concluded the same as you about what he said.
So many comments that the scientists have "changed their mind". So many people who appear to have no idea of how science works, especially in a fast-moving time of crisis...
The Oxford research was described by one rival researcher as "a highly polished turd." Goodness, these scientists are an earthy lot!
I just hope the government has picked the right "experts" - because they can't all be right, can they?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
A quick comparison of the 500000 v 20000 deaths from the Imperial College / Prof Ferguson study can be seen from the graphs posted by @geoffers on page 2 of this thread. The numbers are for intensive care requirements, and the study is based on a 50% fatality rate for anyone getting intensive care. Anything above the red line is someone who needs intensive care, but can't get it as capacity has been exceeded, which is going to be near 100% fatality. 500000 is the area under the black line, and above the red line to August, and it looks about right that 20000 is half (the 50% fatality rate) of what is under the green line (assuming that's what we're tracking to).
AFAIK 500000 is the only death figure from the Imperial College / Prof Ferguson study, but if they'd given a death figure for the green scenario it looks like it would be around 20000. So, nothing has changed in the study, just the government policy.
A bit more detail:
1. Personally, I think we're probably not tracking to the green line, as the government guidance was not as quick as it could have been, nor as clear. My guess is we're closer to the orange for now, but probably dropping in May. Also, there are regional differences, so it's very likely that the red line capacity will be exceeded locally. However, as a first order approximation, either could be ~20000 deaths, compared to the 'Do nothing' scenario
2. I'm only thinking about figures up to August. Necessarily something has to be done to avoid huge peaks after that, but the Imperial College / Prof Ferguson study gives a strategy for this
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Very interesting read - worrying that the USA was one of the first to have significant cases
Quote:
The Lancet’s own view of the crisis (as of January 24) was equally measured.
...
“As we went to press, more than 500 cases have been confirmed in China, as well as in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and the US.
It now turns out (as of Fri 27 March) that the USA has become the world's major epicentre
Just heard on BBC world service that the USS Theodore Roosevelt has docked in Guam and is in lockdown due CV19 outbreak
So much for the Yellow Halfwit's misinformation campaign...
Thanks for that link, I think it's a good summary of what he said on Wednesday (and saves re-watching the entire video of the session).
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
maggi wrote:
8611 wrote:
not wearing Ski gear.
I never wear ski gear at breakfast. It's not comfortable as Austrian hotels, especially, are always too hot. I eat, then go to my room, clean teeth and change into ski gear. This is normal behaviour for a lot of people, not some weird "older European" thing.
I straddle the middle of these two options... I enjoy breakfast in my ski undergarments so I am already half-dressed for the mountain once I've finished.
I am sure people realize I'm keen to be out on the mountain early as they never join me at my table or delay me with conversation..........
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pablito69 wrote:
maggi wrote:
8611 wrote:
not wearing Ski gear.
I never wear ski gear at breakfast. It's not comfortable as Austrian hotels, especially, are always too hot. I eat, then go to my room, clean teeth and change into ski gear. This is normal behaviour for a lot of people, not some weird "older European" thing.
I straddle the middle of these two options... I enjoy breakfast in my ski undergarments so I am already half-dressed for the mountain once I've finished.
I am sure people realize I'm keen to be out on the mountain early as they never join me at my table or delay me with conversation..........
Or the merino isn't working as well as you think it is
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quite valid point in this article, sad but true ...
Quote:
"We don't know what the level of excess deaths will be in this epidemic," Ferguson said.
In other words, we don't know the extent to which COVID-19 will increase annual deaths above the level that otherwise would have been expected.
"By the end of the year, what proportion of those people who've died from COVID-19 would have died anyhow?" Ferguson asked.
"It might be as much as half to two-thirds of the deaths we're seeing from COVID-19, because it's affecting people who are either at the end of their lives or in poor health conditions.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I really don't like the propaganda coming out from the reason.com site you linked to above. Wander around the site for a while, and it's pretty clear it's Trumpian propaganda i.e. the financial cure mustn't be worse than the viral disease.
It's couched in moderate-sounding terms, but basically by the end of most articles, having prefixed the conclusion with 'no one is saying ...' they then go on to say exactly that lives are less important than jobs and the economy. Which is a false alternative.
This 'The cure is worse than the disease.' line is reprehensible. And we heard it from the Telegraph's correspondent at the PM's briefing a few days ago. It's reprehensible because it's a false alternative - there is no balance to be made between lives and the economy on coronavirus. There's no linkage. The economy will be devastated whether we take the necessary public health measures or not. Just how badly depends not on the health countermeasures, but on the financial support and economic measures taken by the government and how well these are targeted.
'The cure is worse than the disease' propaganda is just a way of blaming public health officials for the consequences of Trump and his Minions' catastrophically incompetent optimism and laissez-faire social indifference.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sat 28-03-20 16:51; edited 7 times in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
LaForet wrote:
I really don't like the propaganda coming out from the reason.com site you linked to above. Wander around the site for a while, and it's pretty clear it's Trumpian propaganda i.e. the financial cure mustn't be worse than the viral disease.
I've not looked at other articles on that website, but I thought the article specifically linked to above was a good summary of what Neil Ferguson told the House of Commons Science Select Committee last week.
After all it is free
After all it is free
LaForet wrote:
'The cure is worse than the disease' propaganda is just a way of blaming public health officials for the consequences of Trump and his Minions' catastrophically incompetent optimism and laissez-faire social indifference.
Affluent white men in their 50s do not seem immune. If you are so ill to need a ventilator then the chances of survival are 50:50. I'm so glad that Dominic Cummings has it and even that his uncle died of it. lady's front bottom.
Affluent white men in their 50s do not seem immune. If you are so ill to need a ventilator then the chances of survival are 50:50. I'm so glad that Dominic Cummings has it and even that his uncle died of it. lady's front bottom.
Was once told if you cant say anything nice about someone then say nothing at all.
Im sure you wouldn' like someone making such a comment about your loved ones
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
robs1 wrote:
... Was once told if you cant say anything nice about someone then say nothing at all. ..
That specific concept has always fascinated me.
I can't imagine that the people who say things like this have thought about about it actually means.
I've nothing nice to say about Trump, for example, but if everyone in that position remained silent, he would have zero opposition.
In fact this is what he, and populists like him, would love to see. It sounds completely undemocratic.
As far as privileged Tory politicians are concerned, I guess it's good to know that they have to use the same health service as the rest of us, if not the same education system.
I'd guess that they all smoke.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Affluent white men in their 50s do not seem immune. If you are so ill to need a ventilator then the chances of survival are 50:50. I'm so glad that Dominic Cummings has it and even that his uncle died of it. lady's front bottom.
What an utterly abhorrent thing to say! Such a comment says way more about what sort of person you are than it does about it’s subject matter. Shame on you.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
[quote="philwig"][quote="robs1"]...
"As far as privileged Tory politicians are concerned, I guess it's good to know that they have to use the same health service as the rest of us, if not the same education system."
Yet every tax payer funds the state education system, even if some then pay yet again (through taxed income) for independent education. I note that Labour's class warrior Diane Abbott sent her son to a fee paying school.
Not that this has anything to do with the current health crisis, of course.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Or skiing FFS!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Re one poster's earlier comment about the controversial Mr Cummings and his health, the sheer nastiness of those words betrays an extreme view, well outside the boundary of decent free speech. The poster stands condemned by their own hate-mongering, published on this forum for all to see.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
And it should be removed along with the poster from SH’s. No place for it here this is supposed to be a friendly forum to help people with all things skiing!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
...
