 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@JohnHSmith, are you in a "high risk" group for covid? If not, there is no very compelling reason to change your thinking.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I don’t regard myself as “high risk”. Mid 60s. Overweight. Reasonably active. No diabetes / asthma / heart conditions or anything like that.
In the post (above) in which I was quoted, I obviously underestimated the effect that national and international decisions would have on freedom of movement.
But I agree. No compelling reasons to change plans yet. In a “normal” year I wouldn’t be forming up my transport plans for 4 months or so from now. I hope the situation will be clearer by then
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Well, @JohnHSmith, overweight carries additional risk, but plenty of time to get rid of it before your next ski holiday. And that will also help ward off the risk of diabetes. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@JohnHSmith, but did you pay it the same level of attention as you did to influenza though? or have you been following the social distancing rules like the rest of us? Long term though I am not sure how this will play out and lots of commentators suggest further spikes next winter too, so there may well be further precautions that we will have to take in excess of that expected for flu.
I think many of us underestimated the seriousness of Covid-19 in the early days and its higher risk to those over 65/70 & overweight etc. so you were not alone in this regard.
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@JohnHSmith, I saw the most recent estimates for the IFR of COVID-19 here, broken down by age range:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
Someone in their mid-60s I would say is fairly high risk - about a 1% chance of death. Something like 300 times more risk compared to someone in the 15-24 age bracket.
For kids and young adults the risk of death appears to be extremely small.
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| musehead wrote: |
@JohnHSmith, I saw the most recent estimates for the IFR of COVID-19 here, broken down by age range:
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
Someone in their mid-60s I would say is fairly high risk - about a 1% chance of death. Something like 300 times more risk compared to someone in the 15-24 age bracket.
For kids and young adults the risk of death appears to be extremely small. |
I understand this and I don't underestimate the power of statistics when applied to a large number of people when you can look at averages and percentages. But there will always be people who are more susceptible and people who are less susceptible............ to anything really. As I get older there is a greater and greater chance of my dying due to a heart attack / falling off my motorbike / rock climbing / skiing / whatever. And influenza is in there too with an increased risk.
But getting back to this thread, is covid-19 going to make me alter my plans for skiing next season?
Well, I hope not. As I said above, I did underestimate the way it has affected international transport. But I am still proposing to go skiing next season. As usual in Sankt Vigilio. And I think there is a very realistic prospect of that happening. Of course, influenza might get me first. And so might any number of things. But rather than fixate on those things I will try to plod steadily onwards taking what I consider (not what the government considers) to be sensible precautions in my everyday life. For example, I work as a criminal defence solicitor. I have dealt with eight police station interviews since Friday lunchtime. In the past that would have been eight interviews at a police station with between three and five people in a fairly small room for between 30 minutes and 90 minutes. No chance at all of keeping six feet apart. The risk is that I could be passing covid-19 to others or that they could be passing it to me. I know one person who does my job has died from covid-19 as have at least two police officers.
So now it has become acceptable to do some of the police station interviews remotely. By email. By video.
The government may say "It's all right lads. Off to work you go. It'll be fine" but I am rather more cautious.
So I am changing the way that I do things. But skiing next season? Yes. I expect to be there.
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Old folks over 60yo are right in the deathzone.
One cough in a bubble and you're toast.
Wear a gasmask with Nato filter for police station interviews.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Assuming we can still ski in France, the travel time will likely have the biggest impact on us. My working assumption is that even if travel is possible, it's slower (by any means) and flight frequency will be lower. Most ski holidays one of us (usually my wife) has to return to the UK for a day or two, it's hard to imagine this being nearly as easy which will make it harder for her to come. Certainly if there's any kind of quarantine in place she will struggle to leave the UK.
A knock on effect of this may also be the difficulty of doing ski weekends - I had 5 weekends this season and although I've got 3 booked next year (and a couple more planned), I can see that being zero.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Old folks over 60yo are right in the deathzone.
One cough in a bubble and you're toast.
Wear a gasmask with Nato filter for police station interviews. |
Yeah right !
I haven’t checked recently but I suppose I am toast now and presumably I have been toast for the last 2 months.
Happily generalisations like yours do not hold good. Be aware. Be sensible. That’s life. Like looking before you cross the road.
But getting back to the thread title, I still plan to ski as usual in the coming season
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Usually would have been making plans and booking flights/accommodation by now for Half Term 2021. Just too much uncertainty for me...safety/operation of flights, airline failure, overall economic uncertainty, safety of being in enclosed lifts, border closure, quarantine restrictions, etc.
2021 is definitely wait & see. If an effective vaccine gets delivered and things look ok before half-term, it will be a last-minute trip. If the prices are sky-high, I will likely have to pass.
There's always the possibility of driving down at Easter if conditions/availability/pricing are ok.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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in the UK we are 8 weeks into this, 8 weeks & look how much has changed. Other countries are starting to open up after 10 weeks, 2 weeks before the quoted 12 week period that was banding about, now the next ski season is some 30+ weeks away, so I say less of the scaremongering & a bit more positivity.
I already have 6 trips planned & I can assure you I will fit a couple more in, lets be a bit more positive.
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With you @Jonny996, and looking forward to a possible meet-up in La Grange!
We are very much of the glass-half-full expectation that we will be able to use our rebooked EasyJet flights. Things are a bit less predictable for the summer but we are still working on the basis of driving to the alps being feasible at some point.
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You know it makes sense.
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Indeed. As well as my planned annual Kronplatz trip, I have already speculatively booked flights to Geneva at the start of April for myself, two of my children and my granddaughter. The flights were so cheap it couldn't be missed
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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We are hoping to go and stay with friends in Switzerland and go skiing there. If that isn't feasible, then the Chill Factore with apres at Wetherspoons it is.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| PrimroseAndBlue wrote: |
| We are hoping to go and stay with friends in Switzerland and go skiing there. If that isn't feasible, then the Chill Factore with apres at Wetherspoons it is. |
Of course we can’t do that yet... we can’t even do the dry ski slope which is outside.
Reviewing this thread I didn’t actually update to say we have actually booked for Christmas week. Having lost out on our boomed Easter trip has meant we have booked Christmas week for the first time as family unit (hubby has always felt he wanted to stay home for Christmas)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@NickyJ, Good move. We have spent the last few Christmas' in the alps and it has been most enjoyable. Where are you off to?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Lech
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I admire the positivity and fully hope it will all be ok, but I'm not laying out my hard-earned cash until I'm certain the virus risk has been mitigated, there aren't going to be more waves of infection or an ongoing deepening economic malaise. Still way too many downside risks for me to start jumping now! 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
I'm not laying out my hard-earned cash until I'm certain the virus risk has been mitigated, there aren't going to be more waves of infection or an ongoing deepening economic malaise
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If you insist on never running the risk of catching Covid, @luigi, your life is going to be exceptionally limited for the next year or so, if not much longer. There are cogent views (e.g. from WHO) that we may be living with this virus indefinitely.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@pam w, im not booking anything. On the one hand its not the end of the world if I plan not to have a holiday in the next 12 months, on the other if I booked and it had to be cancelled it would be gutting. I prefer not to risk being gutted at present.
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| Jonny996 wrote: |
in the UK we are 8 weeks into this, 8 weeks & look how much has changed. Other countries are starting to open up after 10 weeks, 2 weeks before the quoted 12 week period that was banding about, now the next ski season is some 30+ weeks away, so I say less of the scaremongering & a bit more positivity.
I already have 6 trips planned & I can assure you I will fit a couple more in, lets be a bit more positive. |
Until the second wave of death plague slams into the Alps next winter.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Jonny996 wrote: |
in the UK we are 8 weeks into this, 8 weeks & look how much has changed. Other countries are starting to open up after 10 weeks, 2 weeks before the quoted 12 week period that was banding about, now the next ski season is some 30+ weeks away, so I say less of the scaremongering & a bit more positivity.
I already have 6 trips planned & I can assure you I will fit a couple more in, lets be a bit more positive. |
Until the second wave of death plague slams into the Alps next winter. |
Or not. You look at it your way. The one thing that Covid-19 does demonstrate is that life can be short. Too short to be excessively negative. Be careful, yes. But don’t be a miserable git
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| Jonny996 wrote: |
in the UK we are 8 weeks into this, 8 weeks & look how much has changed. Other countries are starting to open up after 10 weeks, 2 weeks before the quoted 12 week period that was banding about, now the next ski season is some 30+ weeks away, so I say less of the scaremongering & a bit more positivity.
I already have 6 trips planned & I can assure you I will fit a couple more in, lets be a bit more positive. |
Until the second wave of death plague slams into the Alps next winter. |
Even thou we’re still living through it, you still don’t get it. The second wave will not slam into the Alps, it will slam into everywhere if it comes.
You just sit wherever you are waiting for cancer to get you & leave us to be positive
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
I'm not laying out my hard-earned cash until I'm certain the virus risk has been mitigated, there aren't going to be more waves of infection or an ongoing deepening economic malaise
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If you insist on never running the risk of catching Covid, @luigi, your life is going to be exceptionally limited for the next year or so, if not much longer. There are cogent views (e.g. from WHO) that we may be living with this virus indefinitely. |
I did say mitigated, not eliminated...for a reason!!
And getting into a sealed tin box for a couple of hours and sharing recirculated exhalations with 150 other potential virus hosts if there's a second wave of infection next winter is a risk I wouldn't want to take.
For me it's all about what happens between now and then, that's why I'm not jumping in booking flights now.
I'm sure there'll be something left if the economic circumstances still look promising and the virus risk seems sufficiently mitigated to me.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Jonny996 wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
| Jonny996 wrote: |
in the UK we are 8 weeks into this, 8 weeks & look how much has changed. Other countries are starting to open up after 10 weeks, 2 weeks before the quoted 12 week period that was banding about, now the next ski season is some 30+ weeks away, so I say less of the scaremongering & a bit more positivity.
I already have 6 trips planned & I can assure you I will fit a couple more in, lets be a bit more positive. |
Until the second wave of death plague slams into the Alps next winter. |
Even thou we’re still living through it, you still don’t get it. The second wave will not slam into the Alps, it will slam into everywhere if it comes.
You just sit wherever you are waiting for cancer to get you & leave us to be positive |
I'm not defending Whitegold's provocative language, he likes to troll, but a second wave next winter (if not before) is a distinct possibility without a vaccine or the fabled 'herd immunity'.
You're right it could affect many places, but flights, leisure accommodation and lift operations could well be curtailed as they were in the first wave, so my argument is why throw hard-earned at them now when you don't know what will be happening then?
I do hope it will all go away as fast as it arrived, but it's too soon to be jumping the gun IMHO
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I wouldn't throw much cash at booking a holiday many months in advance, in this situation - for sure. But then I never do. I would certainly hope and expect to be taking some sort of holiday abroad before the end of 2020/21 ski season. Not necessarily a ski holiday, and I'd arrange it at the last minute.
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@luigi, in our case the flights have free rebooking (or whatever it is called) and are paid for by Credit card should worst happen. In addition although my travel insurance now won’t cover cancellation due Coronavirus it still covers airline failure should the worst happen to the airline.
The accommodation is direct with the owner who has agreed to refund of the deposit if we are unable to travel there due to the Coronavirus. Again paid for by credit card for additional protection.
We are stuck with school holidays presuming our children are allowed to return to school in the next calendar year of course.
Certainly you can definitely say that the presence of virus us led us to additional caution / conditions on what we have booked.
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You know it makes sense.
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it all comes down to your risk stance & I appreciate my decision is much easier than some, flights were £25 each way including new year & half term, the cost saving in them alone makes it worth the risk & as we have an apartment out there it is not like we would never use them if they did get pushed.
I have said this since the start, if we are still living under strict restrictions which affects the 2021 ski season then the loss of a few hundred on flights will be insignificant compared to the loss on my property & pension worth.
what ever the outcome, for sure I think the slopes will be a lot quieter with the combination of folks staying away due to worry & the ones who unfortunately took a financial hit & simply pulled in the belt for a few years.
There are no winners in this argument
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I’ve just got flights so far for Easter -they were too cheap not to-and like many, I’ll probably have bigger things to worry about if we are not able to go by then. Thought about December but thought that might be pushing my luck for international flights. And car hire but they can always be cancelled until 48 hours. Have my eye on a great deal for an apartment I would like in Tignes-we are meeting other people so have to go there- but no refund for cancellation so just waiting for a bit before booking anything else.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
If you insist on never running the risk of catching Covid, @luigi, your life is going to be exceptionally limited for the next year or so, if not much longer. |
| holidayloverxx wrote: |
| @pam w, im not booking anything. On the one hand its not the end of the world if I plan not to have a holiday in the next 12 months, on the other if I booked and it had to be cancelled it would be gutting. I prefer not to risk being gutted at present. |
That (in bold) reflects my sentiment too.
I wouldn't even call it "exceptionally limited". In fact, I'm discovering a lot of pleasant things in my surrounding neighborhood that I used to pass right through on my way to the airport. 
| Quote: |
| There are cogent views (e.g. from WHO) that we may be living with this virus indefinitely. |
| Quote: |
I did say mitigated, not eliminated...for a reason!!
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To me, "mitigate" can also mean improved treatment protocol or even a therapeutic drug that lessens, albeit not cure, the severity of the disease.
Take Flu as an example. We never had found a cure so far. We don't even have a 100% effective vaccine. But its impact on the population is much "contained" thanks to years of experience treating patients of all ages. Covid may turn out to be another "bad flu" in a couple year's time. I'm quite happy to wait till then before committing to fly away holidays.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 19-05-20 18:26; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The reason I said "exceptionally limited" was that I consider it JUST as possible to catch Covid in my immediate neighbourhood as on a ski slope. An approach of minimising risk is not compatible with planning a ski holiday, but then it's not compatible with doing much at all, is it? We none of us know how things will be in terms of second waves, or third waves, or vaccines etc but I think we all need to start thinking NOW about what we're willing to do, as risks change, and where and with whom we're willing to do it. This isn't just about travel, it's about life as a whole.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| pam w wrote: |
| The reason I said "exceptionally limited" was that I consider it JUST as possible to catch Covid in my immediate neighbourhood as on a ski slope. An approach of minimising risk is not compatible with planning a ski holiday, but then it's not compatible with doing much at all, is it? We none of us know how things will be in terms of second waves, or third waves, or vaccines etc but I think we all need to start thinking NOW about what we're willing to do, as risks change, and where and with whom we're willing to do it. This isn't just about travel, it's about life as a whole. |
My usual ski holiday would involve passing through airports that normally see 1000s of passengers from all over the world per day, travelling on a plane sharing recirculated air with 150 strangers, getting into a hire car whose cleanliness I can't vouch for, staying in rented accommodation, getting into enclosed lifts with who knows?...so a lot more risky than anything I would do in my socially-distanced life at home.
I get your point about thinking ahead...if only my crystal ball would tell me what the situation re Coronavirus will be next February, then I could probably start booking!! 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
@luigi, in our case the flights have free rebooking (or whatever it is called) and are paid for by Credit card should worst happen. In addition although my travel insurance now won’t cover cancellation due Coronavirus it still covers airline failure should the worst happen to the airline.
The accommodation is direct with the owner who has agreed to refund of the deposit if we are unable to travel there due to the Coronavirus. Again paid for by credit card for additional protection.
We are stuck with school holidays presuming our children are allowed to return to school in the next calendar year of course.
Certainly you can definitely say that the presence of virus us led us to additional caution / conditions on what we have booked. |
I've just been through the rigmarole of getting some Covid-affected Transatlantic flights refunded...believe me, once these companies have your cash they don't want to give it back without an enormous struggle...never again!! 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Leave booking right until the last minute.
When airlines, hotels, and lift operators are nearly bust, they will slash prices even further.
Will be able to pickup a flight, hotel, and lift ticket for practically free 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| pam w wrote: |
| The reason I said "exceptionally limited" was that I consider it JUST as possible to catch Covid in my immediate neighbourhood as on a ski slope. An approach of minimising risk is not compatible with planning a ski holiday, but then it's not compatible with doing much at all, is it? |
That's not been my experience the last 2 months. I've been "doing much" during that time... cycling, walking in the woods, soon to be kayaking.
I've been fortunate to be able to work from home, which takes up the usual 40hr/week. So I really only need to fill the rest of my "normal" spare time with "much" to do, which is rather easy to achieve.
I've been lucky in my situation. I live in a low density area. I really don't run into anyone "by accident". So by design, I only cross path with strangers when I go grocery shopping. Otherwise, I don't come close to anyone when I'm out walking, not when I bike, not when I...stay at home reading!
Granted, it's pretty obvious much of my favorite pass time are solo pursuits.
But then, so is skiing in its pure form (i.e. as long as I'm not forced to share a chair lift or bubble with strangers). So you're quite right that I'm no more nor less likely to catch Covid in my immediate surrounding as on a ski slope.
However, if I must travel by airplane to the ski slope. That increase the risk considerably. And if I must also stay in a hotel, there's another chance of risk.
So, NOT traveling, I do minimize my risk, to a much higher degree compare to traveling.
I'm not going to hole up like a rat the rest of my life (this being the year of rats BTW ). But I have no problem doing so for a year or so. By then, I'm quite confident we'll have a "better" handle on the disease. How much better? I can't predict the exact percentage. But again, it's all about improving one's odds.
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| luigi wrote: |
| Whitegold wrote: |
Leave booking right until the last minute.
When airlines, hotels, and lift operators are nearly bust, they will slash prices even further.
Will be able to pickup a flight, hotel, and lift ticket for practically free |
I'm not banking on it being spectacularly cheap, but I'm sure there will be something last minute...less chance of them going bust holding your cash that way!!  |
@luigi, while we should not take advantage of others misfortune, we have no moral obligation to WASTE our money to rescue an industry. That's the government's job, albeit with our taxes.
So yes, I do share Whitegold's view. Wait till the very last minute. There're bound to be plenty of bargains to be had.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| abc wrote: |
| So yes, I do share Whitegold's view. Wait till the very last minute. There're bound to be plenty of bargains to be had. |
Not sure. For flights and packages I think capacity will be greatly reduced. Less skiers chasing less capacity = same prices. Yield management is now such an art form that last minute can actually deliver higher prices.
For me, the way to handle next season is fairly obvious:
(1) Drive
(2) Self cater
(3) Go to a less popular area
(4) Go off peak if you can
(5) Be prepared for your plans to fall over
I think avoiding airports, planes, transfers, enclosed lifts, bars and restaurants will mitigate the risk best as can be expected.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
| ...We are stuck with school holidays presuming our children are allowed to return to school in the next calendar year of course. ... |
And even if they do return, a further uncertainty is whether school holidays will still be on the current anticipated schedule. If full schooling doesn't restart until say early-October, not impossible that traditional autumn and spring half-terms will be scrapped.
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FAQ
