Corona Virus + upcoming holiday

A snowHead

@LaForet, there's a calm, sensible, measured analysis on the Atlantic that I linked to on the main thread.

A snowHead

Thanks for that link @stanton, those charts confirm what the WHO have been saying - it's not as bad as the Press are making it sound!

Particularly when you consider that in January Italy had around 3 Million people confirmed with flu (around 250 deaths reported so far).

I've got no worries whatsoever about travelling.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Italian Civil Protection Department

http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/home

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There's a lot of us heading to Pila this weekend it would appear. We can all pin a bottle of antibacterial gel to our lapel so we can recognise each other out on the slopes wink

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Anyone who starts coughing or sneezing on the main gondola up from Aosta may get a kicking...

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Hi,
There are a few questions on here comparing Coronavirus to the flu and whether people should be worried, bottom line is that the risk is higher but still not massive for the 'average' person. I personally am not worried for my own health.

I am not a medical professional but do work in pharma and have done some self research so thought it might be worthwhile briefly trying to explain why governments are more worried about Coronavirus (CV) than flu, it is purely because of the potential impact. There are varied figures available so I’ve chosen some mid ground values I found from reputable sources, the numbers themselves aren’t that important it’s their relative values compared to flu that is causing the concern. Sobering thought - The 1918-20 flu pandemic is estimatedto have killed 1-3% of the global population.

The main reasons are
1. Ability to spread – the average person with flu passes it on to 1.3 other people, for CV the initial reported figure is 2.2 so it may spread almost twice as quickly and this is enough to result in exponential spread.
2. Impact, in the US an estimated 1% of people with flu need to go to hospital and 0.05% of people who get the flu each year die. For CV in China it’s looking like up to 5% of people may need hospital care and 1-2% die (although figures been 0.4% and 2.7% have been reported).

So they are worried that the disease will spread very quickly (2x flu) and infect many more people, overwhelm hospitals (5x number of patients cf flu) and result in significant number of deaths (20-40x flu).

Obviously there is a vaccine for flu which can be effective and reduce the rate of spread and Coronavirus vaccine is probably a couple of years away.

I'm not trying to be a doom monger just give context, these numbers are why such draconian measures are being implemented in Italy and elsewhere, the current number of deaths are tragic but almost irrelevant.

Of course it could just all calm down and young(ish) healthy individuals are unlikely to develop severe symptoms so on a personal level it might not be a problem but obviously one healthy person carrying the virus with virtually no symptoms could easily spread it to many other people without realising so the best way to stop the spread is to stop people meeting. You might not be at risk but you may BE the risk for others.

Note – I am a random guy on the internet and this is just to try and put some context around the measures being taken in Italy and elsewhere because I found the numbers interesting. I won’t get involved in discussion on the accuracy of the numbers as I'm working and one of the issues is that there has not been sufficient time for the medical community to agree on these

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Another angle I hadn’t even thought about...my employers. I work in a J&J medical devices facility and they may not let me travel ? My immediate supervisor knows where I’m going but I’m not back in work until tomorrow when I find out what’s going on with them then. At least they would issue me with a letter if they scenario arises.

After all it is free

Thanks for that, @richb67. And buon giorno @carled,' sbeen a long time..... snowHead

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This is the Official Advice from the Dutch Government (Only valid for today)

Red Areas : Do Not travel to these areas

Lombardije: Casalpusterlengo, Codogno, Castiglione d’Adda, Fombio, Maleo, Somaglia, Bertonico, Terranova dei Passerini, Castelgerundo en San Fiorano.
Padova: Vo` Euganeo.

Orange Area (Milano) : Only for emergency reasons

https://www.nederlandwereldwijd.nl/landen/italie/reizen/reisadvies#anker-gezondheid

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Am I the only one that is thinking that either it doesn't spread anywhere near as easily as the media would have us believe, otherwise there would be far more cases, OR, it has in fact spread to millions of people around the world, but is just being treated in the same way as a common cold, no doctors, no testing, and in healthy people is no more serious?

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

This is my (Axa) travel insurance wording:

We will pay you up to the limit in your schedule for:
Cancellation - your proportion only of your irrecoverable unused travel and accommodation costs and other
pre-paid charges if you have to cancel your trip;
The reasons covered are:
...
The Travel Advice Unit of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) or other regulatory authority in a
country in which you are travelling advising against all travel, or all but essential travel, to the area you are
travelling to/in.

The bit I've highlighted in italics seems interesting, although I always struggle with interpreting things written by m'learned friends...

In other news, 2 cases have been reported in Tyrol in Austria... Skullie

A snowHead

Oh well just wandered down into the commercial centre in Serre Chevalier* and a fair sprinkling of Italians around with kids (as the schools are closed), come back home and two Italian families now here with kids rolling eyes

*we're only 1hr 40m from Turin

A snowHead

@Weathercam, why the eye roll?

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

@denfinella, because I think it's mildly ironic with everyone concerned about travelling to Italy, that's all.

And this just in from SIGB

Due to the coronavirus situation in Italy, there will be regular updates this week – things can obviously develop and change very quickly. We'll keep everyone updated with any developments. Please remember that these updates only go to the listed principal contact, so please circulate to your test team as appropriate.

Coronavirus

Enclosed is a copy of a local government statement following some suspected cases in the Aosta Valley (all negative).
There is no UK travel advice against travel to Italy, although they do recommend self-isolation if anyone has visited the actual affected areas or if anyone has coronavirus-like symptons returning from Italy (or anywhere else affected).
The affected area around Codogno, is some 245km from Pila.
The only flights suspended to Milan are direct flights from China.

Based on the above, the Test will proceed as planned but the situation will be monitored on a daily basis.

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Two cases now confirmed in Tirol.

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I saw a chap on tv yesterday who said that CV is of concern but, to him, more important was the potential ability for it to mutate into something far worse.

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A school in Cheshire has been forced to close amid concerns that students returning to the UK from a ski trip to Italy could be infected with Coronavirus.

Cransley School, in Northwich, took the decision to close the school after NHS clinical services advised any staff or pupils who went on a ski-trip to Bormio to self-isolate.

A number of students are believed to be experiencing symptoms of the virus after visiting the area in the Lombardy region where hundreds of residents have contracted the deadly infection.

That would be a bore, to have to self-isolate for x number of weeks when I get back.

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Back from a week visiting Aosta resorts and one of the lads has a cough/sniffle but no temp. Keeping him off school today but GP advice is if no temp he can go back. My boss has suggested I work from home which seems v cautious compared to PHE advice, but then having spent 14 hours in a car with him Sunday if he does have it, so do I!

R5 had a travel expert responding to a question from a mom in similar situation to my son's above, that the ski areas are a "long distance from the quarantined areas." But that seems to ignore the fact many people will have travelled from Milan/Turin areas to go skiing there for a couple of days. Then sharing a gondola/queue at close quarters for a decent amount of time with others.

The more you think about it, especially with it being contagious before being symptomatic, the advice is contradictory and probably a bit useless in terms of stopping spread.

After all it is free

There is a vaccine ready for initial trials as I said a couple of weeks ago. Inovio have a capacity to scale up because of the MERS work they have done in the past. Once the Chinese gov released the RNA sequence it was only a matter of 4 weeks to get the preliminary work done.

My friend is VP or R&D but I have NOT spoke to her.

What's the situation for those skiing Italy but in and out of Innsbruck?

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@shockingmoment, not an issue at the moment, as the Austria-Italy border is open and (assuming you are visiting the Dolomites) you won't be travelling through (or even near) the Italian areas where the hotspots are.

Of course it's an evolving issue though, so could well change.

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They are not mass testing for it in the UK, anyone with suspected symptoms just being advised to stay at home. I'd imagine the are thousands or tens of thousands already that have/had it.
Most of the confirmed cases have recovered fully and the advice is that if you are healthy normally, catching it won't cause you any significant problems.
It seems now that we are headed for pandemic, it's spread too far and wide that even shutting down air travel/borders wouldn't help much.
Best advice is if you have frail/ill relatives make sure they are washing hands constantly and avoiding mixing with others where possible.

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I'm off to Aosta valley end of this week and we've been trying to gather the best info possible and at the moment I don't see any reason not to travel, we're hiring a car from MXP so will try to minimise mingling but I work for a company with 70+ members of staff that travel in and out of the offices on international flights every week or so, so I don't see this being much higher risk!

We have a pack of masks and a fair amount of alcohol gel so just gonna treat is as an excuse to do more days touring out in the wilds than catching gondolas full of people! Anyone noticed any effect on the busyness, saw a facebook comment that some areas were deserted but webcams seem to say otherwise!?

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

@oliverracing, face masks don't do anything other than make you look stupid.

A snowHead

Masks are not that effective.

Clean Hands

Avoid touching handrails on trains,buses planes, wipe steering wheel gear, handles on rental cars etc

Dont touch your face oe eyes without cleaning hands.

Wear Gloves when travelling..

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

@oliverracing, I think I'd take the risk rather than look stupid and look as though I am stupid.

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@oliverracing, we were in Courmayuer last week, very busy on Saturday due Carnivale, LaThuile and Pila not too busy earlier in the week. I think Potential biggest threat of spread is being in an aeroplane from both other passengers and crew who will have high level of possible exposure.

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@stanton, whilst you may be giving good advice on this subject, all your other posts lead me to think you only spout scaremongering rubbish, shame you’ve created this impression of yourself

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I was like Howard Hughes on the plane and at the airport last week. I wiped and rubbed away like a mad thing. This follows getting floored by chest infections following flights in the past . I read that you are more likely to be affected by being in airports rather than on the planes themselves - not sure about this though. I wasn’t taking a chance in any event. So far so good.

After all it is free

Tell you what guys - few years ago I cancelled my trip to Antananarivo due to bubonic plague

https://www.who.int/csr/don/27-november-2017-plague-madagascar/en/

At first our contacts said was nothing to worry about and that it happens every couple of years in Tana, but then it became very very serious and with a week to go they suggested we cancel as body count was rising rapidly!

So Corona Virus, pah Laughing

Doing some research on this, to put things into perspective: If you travel to India you have a 43% chance of contracting an illness, and a 10% chance of contracting more than one (according to the US CDC). Of those falling ill, about 1 in 3 will get a gastrointestinal illness, about 1 in 5 a respiratory illness. Few people get the more high-profile diseases like malaria, probably because the preventive measures are well-understood and most people take them. So despite an almost 2 in 5 chance of getting ill with something that will at a minimum spoil your holiday, and at worst see you in hospital, lots of us still choose to go. I just put this out there for the purposes of setting a context for the Coronavirus numbers.

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Corona Virus + upcoming holiday

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