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The All New 13/14 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The Stelvio Pass today:

I cycled up this less than 6 weeks ago in lovely sunshine !


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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
dsoutar, at the top of the image, does it say Temp +16c?

That's a lot of snow looking at it!!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Should be further snowfall in the Alps midweek, not quite as cool as last night, snowline down to around 1900m-2200m on Wednesday night. After that it currently looks like warming up again.
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Here's SLF's review of recent snowfall in the Swiss Alps.

"Weather review

On Thursday night there was heavy snowfall, particularly in the Glarner Alps and in Grisons. On Friday, there was a pause during the daytime, bringing bright intervals in eastern and southern regions. Then snowfall set in again, particularly in southern regions. The snowfall level dipped to below 1000 m for a brief spell, but mostly was between 1000 and 1300 m.

Between Thursday evening and Saturday evening above approximately 1600 m the following amounts of snowfall were registered:
Glarner Alps, Grisons, Main Alpine Ridge from the Simplon into northern Ticino and southwards thereof: 50-80 cm; in the central and eastern sectors of the Main Alpine Ridge even more than 1 meter from place to place
remaining regions: 30 to 50 cm

During the snowfall, moderate, intermittently strong velocity winds from various directions were blowing.

Weather forecast

On Saturday night there will be snowfall above approximately 1300 m. In the furthermost western regions and in the central sector of the southern flank of the Alps, 10 to 20 cm of new fallen snow is expected, elsewhere less. In eastern regions, next to no snowfall. During the day, quite sunny in eastern regions, elsewhere there will be bright spells.

On Monday and Tuesday, skies will frequently be overcast. Above approximately 2000 m, a small amount of snowfall is anticipated.
Particularly at high altitudes, a strong to storm strength southwesterly wind will be blowing intermittently.

Outlook

On Wednesday snowfall is expected in northern regions above approximately 1800 m more than anywhere else. In southern regions skies will be overcast. The avalanche situation is not expected to change significantly."
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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GFS for Tignes showing some interesting activity near the end of the month to keep an eye on, especially for those of us out training early November Smile
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I love this time of the year. Watching the temperatures generally gradually drop from the beginning of October through to the end of october. Fantastic. Madeye-Smiley
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A few snow showers over the next 24 hours, but then a generally pretty warm phase for the second half of the month.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
kitenski wrote:
GFS for Tignes showing some interesting activity near the end of the month to keep an eye on, especially for those of us out training early November Smile


good conditions in tignes at the moment! There opening more up over the next few days i would think as well.

there was an on piste avalanche on sunday though Shocked
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This chart shows how ECM sees pressure building over Europe in a week's time.



And the next one temperatures also above average a week from now.



So high pressure and mild temperatures to come.
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It's mid October, And the lowest temperature recorded in Manchester so far is 4.4c. It's been very warm recently. Can't wait for a good cold spell.
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kitenski wrote:
GFS for Tignes showing some interesting activity near the end of the month to keep an eye on, especially for those of us out training early November Smile


Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Second half of October continues to look generally milder than average for the time of year across much of Europe.

Matt Hugo's take on the EC seasonal model is:

"@MattHugo81: EC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months."
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No real change today in the outlook for the second half of October. Generally milder than average, with a fair amount of high pressure across central and eastern Europe.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Do I keep holding onto the GFS promise showing some precipitation around the 23rd Oct and temps dropping into November (for Tignes...)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Far too warm in Cardiff for this time of the year. Baking on the bike this morning. Bring on the cold.
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Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
Do I keep holding onto the GFS promise showing some precipitation around the 23rd Oct and temps dropping into November (for Tignes...)


Looks like there could be some snow on Wednesday, not too sure it will be all that much and the snowline looks pretty high. Early November looks more promising in terms of cooler than average temperatures at present, but that's a way off.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
GFS 06z continues a trend of flinging out colder than or at least close to average temperatures for the start of November in the Alps and Pyrenees.

Zermatt.

Eastern Pyrenees.

Worth keeping an eye on. Between now and then though some much milder than average temperatures likely, with some heavy rain in places midweek.

Further north though both Scotland and parts of Scandinavia look like seeing some cold temperatures at times.

Cairngorm.

Hemsedal.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, do you reckon the freezing level is going to get over 3000m next week??
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kitenski wrote:
nozawaonsen, do you reckon the freezing level is going to get over 3000m next week??


Yes, it's been above 3000m today. By next weekend it looks like being up above 3500m at times.
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nozawaonsen, when are you going to wave your magic wand and bring freezing level down to 1000m?
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Snow showers today in the western Alps down to around 2700 and possibly heavier snow on Wednesday again to around 2700m. Temperatures in general though are going to be high for the time of year with freezing level more often than not above 3000m possibly pushing towards 4000m by the end of the week. Conversely it looks like Scotland could get a cold blast with snowfall at the end of the week, though it may be a relatively brief affair.
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During today the trend has been to extend the likelihood of above average temperatures into early November. On the other hand the spread is wide from 27 October. In any case very early days obviously.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Third frame really tells the story. Temperatures across Europe much milder than average for the time of year.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Not that that means a great deal at this stage.
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certainly enjoying the higher temperatures in the alps at the moment. if it can carry on until the end of november that would be great! Very Happy
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Latest JAMSTEC output going for a colder than average winter.

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Good good so I will be most happy with a repeat of last year snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like there could be a sharp drop in temps and quite a bit of snow in the Alps next Wed.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/ischgl
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Meteociel is looking good for the season now, all could change though.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=6&run=10&archive=0

The snow cover spread makes interesting reading.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2013&ui_day=295&ui_set=0
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen, just bought new winter tyres for the car while there was plenty in stock......
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
snowheads68 wrote:
Looks like there could be a sharp drop in temps and quite a bit of snow in the Alps next Wed.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/ischgl


It's moved a day earlier now. Starts Tuesday.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I wouldn't take the figures particularly seriously, but the likelihood of snow in the Alps around the middle of next week is increasing currently looks to be down to around 1300m, but that will shift about.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday seems to be fluctuating from snow to rain. The snow line is up and down like the proverbial. Back to snow now !! (and lots of it)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snow coming Tuesday and Wednesday primarily in the eastern Alps where it may fall down to 1300m. But a return to milder weather looks likely later in the week.
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It gets really exciting from now on, especially with plans to be in val thorens 2nd week December. Usually it gets cold enough for snow canons to start working from around 2nd week November and then it's just waiting for the first big dump.
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Summer hibernation is over - is there an "OMG Shocked No Snow" thread yet?
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The snow now forecast to fall further east now.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/mallnitz
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As anticipated the snowfall tomorrow and Wednesday looks focussed on the eastern Alps.

Here it is on WRF on Wednesday

00z
12z

It looks like reaching down to around 1400m and should be about 30cm at altitude in places like Hintertux. It will warm up again later in the week before the chance of further snowfall on Sunday.

The trailers continue...


http://youtube.com/v/CCo1Ffn9_u8
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen,
Any cold spell on the horizon for the Alps? We seemed to have gone into a pattern of unsettled but mild weather over several weeks. Early days I know.
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Looking like a fair dump of snow at the weekend in the alps. Getting interesting as anything from nowish on is likely to stick above maybe 2600m?
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i'd say that above 2600 already has a snow covering in the shader places Smile
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