 Poster: A snowHead
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@Astontech - and by way of an example of how things can change between runs - the 06 Op run for GFS (solid green) is now back near seasonal average when on the 00 run it was at 5-6º.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well this GFS 12z chart sums up my worries about a repeat of Dec22, the vortex splits, we get an arctic lobe over the north sea, greenland high, -AO, -NAO. Uk in the freezer, but western and southern alps get warm air. These potentially great synoptic set ups only happen once or twice a season if that....so close to a massive low level snow event, but if the low in the south atlantic interacts like below, it's going to be a washout below 2500m.
But it's just one option....still a few days before this period (14-17th) can be reliably forecast I think, apart from the east should to relatively well
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 8-01-24 18:02; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Astontech - and by way of an example of how things can change between runs - the 06 Op run for GFS (solid green) is now back near seasonal average when on the 00 run it was at 5-6º.
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It is not so much change between runs. The 00 & 12 are more complete data models than the 06 & 18. Hence 00 & 12 look similar. The 06 & 18 look similar, but both sets usually look quite different up until they align.
My understanding is that the 00 & 12 take a lot longer to model the data than the 06 & 18 - but I might got the pairings mixed around.
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@Gored, yeah the 00 and 12z generally have better verification stats than 06 and 18.....saw some stats that had the 12z ahead of all of them recently.
Am not aware of different processing times....makes sense if there is more data, but they all get released at the same time, eg about 5 hours after data cut off.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@polo is that chart the 12z op run (or is that not the same thing here)?
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@andy from embsay, yes its the 12z Op, not looking great today.....trend shift started yesterday on the EC46, too far NW, brings in high pressure quicker to the south, most models now leaning warmer for south and west, while still colder to the east and lots of snow for UK
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Currently raining at ~1500m in parts of the southwestern Alps.
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This link: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_w_other_ts_upperair?area=NHem%20Extratropics&day=3&score=Anomaly%20correlation shows the verification of the main modelling centres in Dec 2023. High numbers are good. ECMWF is a clear winner, partly because it has longer to analyse data as it is not used to supply operational output for the aviation industry as is the case for other models, e.g. UK and USA (NCEP) which supply output earlier to meet contractual requirements. ECMWF also has state of the art computing facilities and some of the best scientists in Europe. ECMWF outputs are generally available 6 - 7 hours after data time (e.g. 00Z and 12Z).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| snoozeboy wrote: |
| Some of us need to lighten up. The strength of this place is its traffic and diversity. |
SnowHeads gets nearly twice the global traffic of that Aussie site.
Every year this thread gets swamped with self-appointed forum police egomaniac control-freaks who can't contain their overwhelming urges to dictate other people's lives.
Happens every year for a decade or more.
It's nothing new.
This thread is and remains the best ski-weather thread on the entire Web.
A perfect mix of nerdcasts, hopecasts, and reality checks.
Something for everyone.
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@Whitegold,
Its weather. People only want to hear what they want to hear. Not that it is raining, even if it is.
Everyone has picked at least 1 week to go skiing & hoping they had picked the right week for the season, so I can see why people get anoyed being told it is raining when it’s raining.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
This thread is and remains the best ski-weather thread on the entire Web.
A perfect mix of nerdcasts, hopecasts, and reality checks.
Something for everyone. |
+1 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| polo wrote: |
Well this GFS 12z chart sums up my worries about a repeat of Dec22, the vortex splits, we get an arctic lobe over the north sea, greenland high, -AO, -NAO. Uk in the freezer, but western and southern alps get warm air. These potentially great synoptic set ups only happen once or twice a season if that....so close to a massive low level snow event, but if the low in the south atlantic interacts like below, it's going to be a washout below 2500m.
But it's just one option....still a few days before this period (14-17th) can be reliably forecast I think, apart from the east should to relatively well |
And here is the latest Met Office update - which to my untrained eye supports what you've just explained about the UK potentially heading for a cold spell ...
Long range forecast
Saturday 13 Jan - Monday 22 Jan
Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.
Tuesday 23 Jan - Tuesday 6 Feb
Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely.
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You know it makes sense.
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Hi all, been lurking for donkies years here thank you to all who contribute it’s much appreciated I’ve learnt a bit along the way but not much!
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=3436&var=202&run=12&date=2024-01-08&model=ecm&member=ENS&bw=1
Just to help me learn a little would any of those with knowledge be able to guide me?
The above ensemble is the today at 12Z for Filzmoos Austria.
I understand the further away the date is the more the variance as predictably becomes less and less but all the different coloured lines what do they represent? This is ECMFW
Is the white line the mean average of all the coloured lines?
Thank yiu
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| franga wrote: |
| polo wrote: |
Well this GFS 12z chart sums up my worries about a repeat of Dec22, the vortex splits, we get an arctic lobe over the north sea, greenland high, -AO, -NAO. Uk in the freezer, but western and southern alps get warm air. These potentially great synoptic set ups only happen once or twice a season if that....so close to a massive low level snow event, but if the low in the south atlantic interacts like below, it's going to be a washout below 2500m.
But it's just one option....still a few days before this period (14-17th) can be reliably forecast I think, apart from the east should to relatively well |
And here is the latest Met Office update - which to my untrained eye supports what you've just explained about the UK potentially heading for a cold spell ...
Long range forecast
Saturday 13 Jan - Monday 22 Jan
Cloudy, with patchy light rain or drizzle for central and southern areas, although many areas staying largely dry. Sunny spells and scattered showers, wintry in places, further north, most frequent along coasts. Winds will be light with temperatures likely to be a little below average. Into the start of the following week, it is likely to turn colder as northerly winds begin to develop across of the UK and bring a risk of snow showers, particularly across the north. Further bands of light rain and drizzle may also sink south at times. There is a very small risk of a period of snow across some southern areas for a time. Confidence is low through the rest of this period, but an increased chance of unsettled conditions returning from the west.
Tuesday 23 Jan - Tuesday 6 Feb
Through this period, there is an increased chance compared to normal of cold conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Frontal systems will probably move in from the west or southwest at times, bringing periods of rain or snow. Some drier, more settled interludes are also likely. |
Hope this means some snow in the end of January, at least for Arlberg (hopecasting mode: on)
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Poster: A snowHead
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@sussexmartlet, yes, white is the average of all the lines. Each one represents a forecast, based on slightly different variables, which as you get further out can cause them to be a wider spread of outcomes. If there’s a wide spread then that suggests less certainty over the forecast.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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We Powder is showing freezing level in France at 2000m for a big chunk of next week. Seems crazy for January. 
Anyone got any views on that? TIA
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@EvieTee, if you read about half a dozen posts further up that’s exactly what @polo suggested the 12z GFS model output showed could happen. It’s still uncertain as a slight change in pattern could mean a very different outcome, but there is now a (growing?) possibility that the southern/western alps could be in a S/SW airflow for a few days next week.
The same website also has FL dropping to about 900m from Thursday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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That pool of tropical air just can’t help trying to make a return .
We can’t get away from the fact that the mild air from the south west seems to be about 3/4c warmer these days
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
That pool of tropical air just can’t help trying to make a return .
We can’t get away from the fact that the mild air from the south west seems to be about 3/4c warmer these days |
Well with all due respect that pool of tropical air can do one
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
That pool of tropical air just can’t help trying to make a return .
We can’t get away from the fact that the mild air from the south west seems to be about 3/4c warmer these days |
When you say a “pool of tropical air” that suggests something static - I thought all these cyclones and anticyclones whizzed round the globe at 250km/h?
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More overnight snow in Crans at circa 1500m. Website forecast down to -5.8 for today.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@andy from embsay, Ok the air to the south wizzing round the earth seems to be a lot warmer than it used as discussed many pages ago, the mild incursions these days seem to be 2 to 4c warmer than they used to be all part of the new Climate rollercoaster .
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| EvieTee wrote: |
We Powder is showing freezing level in France at 2000m for a big chunk of next week. Seems crazy for January.
Anyone got any views on that? TIA |
That's not particularly unusual for January. It probably happens most years at some point mid-winter. I've unfortunately got too many memories of unwelcome deluges of rain up to 2000m or even 2500m in January!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Rob Mackley, ah, I see what you mean - I guess if the planet’s warmer that’s to be expected. This episode next week will hopefully be fairly short lived.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| musehead wrote: |
| EvieTee wrote: |
We Powder is showing freezing level in France at 2000m for a big chunk of next week. Seems crazy for January.
Anyone got any views on that? TIA |
That's not particularly unusual for January. It probably happens most years at some point mid-winter. I've unfortunately got too many memories of unwelcome deluges of rain up to 2000m or even 2500m in January! |
Eugh. Ok good to know thanks. Just luck of the draw then I guess.
I’m keeping everything crossed for no deluges of rain at 2000m but not feeling too optimistic at the minute.
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@musehead, Yes not unusual for Jan as a single occurrence but if this happens this will be the fourth or fifth time since the end of November this has happened which is unprecedented in my view . In the western alps there has always been warm sectors in the weather cycle but there is no doubt when they come along they are much warmer than they used to be .
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You know it makes sense.
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@EvieTee, tbh it depends where you’re going - if the FL is 2000m the snowline will be lower, maybe 1700m if you’re lucky. So places like Avoriaz, Tignes, Val d’Isere will all have snow at village level.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @EvieTee, tbh it depends where you’re going - if the FL is 2000m the snowline will be lower, maybe 1700m if you’re lucky. So places like Avoriaz, Tignes, Val d’Isere will all have snow at village level. |
What charts must I look at to identity where the FL is? I would like to keep track of this for Avoriaz.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I’d download meteoblue - that uses a range of models and has some useful weather maps including FL.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Astontech wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @EvieTee, tbh it depends where you’re going - if the FL is 2000m the snowline will be lower, maybe 1700m if you’re lucky. So places like Avoriaz, Tignes, Val d’Isere will all have snow at village level. |
What charts must I look at to identity where the FL is? I would like to keep track of this for Avoriaz. |
For the FL, I tend to look at the model data at wetterzentrale.de. There is a vast amount of information on this site, but the link shows one example of FL and precipitation over France: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=43&time=6&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 If you use the menu on the left you can find the same information from other models. New information will come in every 6 hours.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| I’d download meteoblue - that uses a range of models and has some useful weather maps including FL. |
Thanks Andy - I very much appreciate your help!
I am going to keep an eye on this as it is quite a high risk trip for me, my girlfriend is coming for the first time and I need her to enjoy skiing so we can go multiple times a year lol.
I am thinking that if it looks a bit touch and go I will do a last minute swap to a different resort, somewhere higher and further east.
From your experience in Alps weather watching, may I ask what your general thinking is for Avoriaz 18-23rd Jan? It would be good to hear thoughts from you/anyone else to see if i should start thinking of a back up plan or whether it will be fine.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Another option for FL and other forecast data for a location is to use the 'Diagrams' tab on Wetterzentrale.de. Click on the diagrams tab, chose 'city location via map' then select France on the list. zoom into your desired location and you will find a forecast for Morzine, probably close enough to Avoriaz. You will then see a plot of temperature and precipitation for 3 days. if you click on the 10 day option you will see that forecast if the model runs that far ahead - some don't. Obviously, you can see plots for hundreds of other sites around Europe.
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Oooh gosh @Astontech - that’s pressure! Tbh as it stands it looks like it might be touch and go in Avoriaz around 16-18 Jan. Beyond 18th is still very uncertain. We’re back out on 26/1 and as it stands the week before we arrive looks quite unsettled and colder.
The thing about beginners is as long as there is snow on the ground (which there will be) then they can learn to ski. If it rains it’ll be unpleasant, but if it’s white out/blowing a hoolie then it’s also unpleasant (as my now 21 year old daughter can attest from when she was expelled from ski school at 4yrs old…). So what you want ideally is clear and sunny - and tbh it’s a bit far out to be able to predict that.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
Oooh gosh @Astontech - that’s pressure! Tbh as it stands it looks like it might be touch and go in Avoriaz around 16-18 Jan. Beyond 18th is still very uncertain. We’re back out on 26/1 and as it stands the week before we arrive looks quite unsettled and colder.
The thing about beginners is as long as there is snow on the ground (which there will be) then they can learn to ski. If it rains it’ll be unpleasant, but if it’s white out/blowing a hoolie then it’s also unpleasant (as my now 21 year old daughter can attest from when she was expelled from ski school at 4yrs old…). So what you want ideally is clear and sunny - and tbh it’s a bit far out to be able to predict that. |
We will be skiing 19-22. If it rains 16-18 should the skiing be effected?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Astontech wrote: |
We will be skiing 19-22. If it rains 16-18 should the skiing be effected? |
Rain before you get there is less of a concern than raining while you are there from an enjoyment of learning.
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If you go skiing in late January you are sacrificing the potential for some nasty weather against cheap costs and quiet slopes.
I agree skiing in rain is no fun but it's relatively rare and would be for a day or two. Not something I'd sweat on or change resorts for personally.
In fact, in general, I just suck it up. The only time I have changed plans is when Le Sept Laux didn't open (start of season).
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FAQ
