Brevent-Flégere, surprisingly good. Top 100m or so wind blown powder, really nice. Next 800m or so, in sun springlike. Nice also.
In shade, bit icy.
Much better than expected.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Biiiigggg slides everywhere...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
After the storms to come over the next few days it looks calmer in the northern Alps over the weekend and into next week. The southern side of the Alps however looks to get its share of heavy weather between 07-09 January.
Obviously a lot can still change at that range but currently looks like heavy snow with the snowline a bit above average for the time of year.
Anyway enjoy the storms and before the fireworks get ridiculous a very happy and safe New Year to you all!
@nozawaonsen, Happy New Year to you! And thanks for all your wisdom.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Happy New Year all
The NAO is to go negative for a brief period, and then turn neutral into the long term. This is on EPS.
Lovely outlook of 100-150cm in the French Alps over the next 3 days. That's a Japan kind of dump, not a European one. Very nice stuff.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Happy New Year all
The NAO is to go negative for a brief period, and then turn neutral into the long term. This is on EPS.
Lovely outlook of 100-150cm in the French Alps over the next 3 days. That's a Japan kind of dump, not a European one. Very nice stuff.
It will be for the places that it comes down as snow as opposed to rain!
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Southern side of the Alps is cooler, calmer and sunnier than the north for the next few days.
A different story for those on the north side and particularly the western end.
Three big problems becoming more complex as the week progresses.
- fluctuating snow line (not too bad to start the week, but rising).
So for places like Chamonix/Tignes it will look a bit like today 500-1400m, Tuesday 300-1500m, Wednesday 1500-2100m, Thursday 1200-2200m. But all of those are dynamic
- epic snow above the snow line (calling this a problem is a bit perverse, but in places it will cause problems later in the week).
2m possible in parts of the French Alps over the next four days.
[edit: potential for epic rain beneath the snowline a more obvious challenge].
- very high wind speeds.
Over 100kmh certainly possible on Wednesday.
Further east in places like the Arlberg there will be heavy snow (not as heavy as further west), but much lower temperatures with the snow line 500m or so lower. Still rain at village level at times, but not reaching as high as further west.
All in all that’s quite a potent mix. I would not be surprised if some higher French resorts are raising the Black Flag Wednesday and Thursday.
Should be interesting if nothing else.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 1-01-18 14:44; edited 1 time in total
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What does 'raising the black flag' mean.....?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Sneachta2013 wrote:
What does 'raising the black flag' mean.....?
It means avalanche risk of 5 I believe and likely to lead to closure of much of the resort.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Southern side of the Alps is cooler, calmer and sunnier than the north for the next few days.........
That's not how I see it for us down here in the Sarf , some models are predicting 20cms for tonight and on into the early hours and dribbles all day tomorrow
Then I'm meant to be with a guide Wed - Fri, not the same one as the last two attempts when God decided to have a laugh and we bailed, and Wednesday is looking certifiable bonkers.
Though we've yet to be told where to head to within a sensible distance of Turin.
To me I think we should write Wed off but let's see what he suggests.
Nice moody shot of La Meije La Grave this morning
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Weathercam, yes but though at times you might think it you do not actually represent the whole of the southern side of the Alps. How odd.
To be fair it’s more of a NW/SE split than N/S.
Nice photo.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, tis a similar scenario for Vars / Risoul and Queyras it's only when you look at Alpes Maritimes (Isola) that it's not so unsettled........
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Weathercam, indeed though not in Trento, Venito and Sud Tirol...
The worst impact of the storm looks likely to be to the north and west of the Alps. So places like Chamonix and the Tarentaise which look like having the highest winds, the highest snow lines and the heaviest snow/rain.
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Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, started snowing here again now, not too sure a couple of days ago if this was being forecast ??
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Weathercam, yep it was.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowing in the Beaufortain too. Last few days pretty well as forecast.
Here‘s the weather outlook from SLF for Switzerland [my bold].
”Weather forecast through Tuesday, 02.01.2018
During the night snowfall will commence from the west. It will persist until around midday in the west, but until later in the afternoon in the east. The snowfall level will be at low altitude. In the south the weather will remain dry. During the day it will be quite sunny with a northerly wind.
Fresh snow
From Sunday afternoon until Monday afternoon:
Vaud Alps, Chablais, Lower Valais, western Jura: 20 to 40 cm
Rest of the northern flank of the Alps, Upper Valais, northern Grisons, eastern Jura: 10 to 20 cm, but as much as 30 cm along the northern Alpine ridge
Elsewhere: a few centimetres, remaining dry in the far south
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m: -8 °C in the north and -6 °C in the south
Wind
Strong, in the Jura and the high Alpine regions storm force, from the west, veering northwesterly as the day progresses; strong northerly in the south
Outlook through Thursday, 04.01.2018
Snow will fall in the north on both days. The snowfall level will rise intermittently to approximately 2000 m. The wind will be storm force from the west to northwest. At high altitudes on the northern flank of the Alps and in Valais, large amounts of snow are to be expected. To the south of the Alpine ridge it will be mostly dry and sunny at times with a strong northerly wind.
The avalanche danger will increase significantly in the north and west. The likelihood of natural avalanches will increase from Wednesday. Danger level 4 (high) is expected to be reached on Wednesday evening in the west. Danger level 4 may be reached in the east as well on Thursday. As the snowfall level rises temporarily, an increasing number of gliding avalanches are once again to be expected at intermediate altitudes. In the south the avalanche danger will change very little.”
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
If you’ve been following a certain tweeter you will have heard that there is a particularly cold spell across much of the US right now. Possibly colder still next weekend.
^ It's been +30c in the west and -40c in the east of the US the past week...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
This is how WRF sees the build of snow between lunchtime today and lunchtime Thursday (at which point it is likely to still be snowing).
As you can see localised parts of the French Alps (not widespread) could have received 2m of fresh snow by then on top of quite a lot of snow already. Combine that with 100kmh an hour winds at times and heavy rain lower down and that’s going to be quite a mix.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Spoke to my cousin in Calgary yesterday. At 1pm there the temperature was -34C! With the wind-chill factor it’s -47C!! All outdoor celebrations for New Year were cancelled and people were advised to stay indoors!
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18Z GFS predicting a five or six day föhn for the Eastern Alps from Friday onwards.
Hopefully that will change.
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snowheads68 wrote:
18Z GFS predicting a five or six day föhn for the Eastern Alps from Friday onwards.
Hopefully that will change.
Why, and what if it doesn't? Cheers.
CG
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Charliegolf, Foehn is a warm, dry wind aka the "hairdryer" that as you would imagine, being warm and dry, is effective at melting and removing snow.
So it is generally Not A Good Thing.
Unfortunately, it is also rather common.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@under a new name, Cheers for that.
CG
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Can't believe that WRF analysis when every other one suggests a freezing level well over 2400 and 100mm rain in next few days.
Is there any hope for NW Alps for next 48hrs?
Sat in Morzine having had two great days and wondering whether to come home or face two more days of torrential rain?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@fuego, I think you are confused. WRF is simply showing snowfall at altitude, nothing to do with freezing level.
Freezing levels will fluctuate as mentioned above near the top of this page (for what it’s worth the snow line will be a few 100m lower than the freezing level).
That’s going to mean heavy rain lower down. Heavy snow higher up, with strong winds. I would imagine a lot of lift closures over the next couple of days in the NW Alps.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
In the NW Alps, where the most precipitation is forecast, there'll be a big net gain in snow for the higher resorts, but a (big?) net loss for the lower resorts where much of the precipitation will fall as rain. Anybody like to make a guess where the "break even" altitude is likely to be for the next few days?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The storm is going to unleash some violent winds on the western Alps.
They are likely to be strong in the valleys let alone at altitude.
In Vorarlberg they are warning of winds 60-110km in the valleys. 100-170kmh on the mountains.
I would anticipate stronger winds further west.
That combined with the potentially very heavy precipitation (rain/snow) as discussed carries the risk of damage to infrastructure.
If you are in the mountains in effected areas anticipate disruption and perhaps a glass of red in front of a log fire.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I'm in 3v and it continues to dump and dump snow, for the time being. I'm at about 1950 and am hopeful the rain won't hit here, but we've been warned to stay inside for the foreseeable and given plenty of advice about walking near buildings etc! 🤣
Anybody like to make a guess where the "break even" altitude is likely to be for the next few days?
I want to make a guess for the French northern Alps:-) Between 900 and 1200 m the situation will become very difficult and snow will suffer a lot and even disappear. Higher until 1500 they will lose snow and quality, but should survive. Between 1500 and 1800 m it will be ok with some rain which will not be good for the quality but snowpack will increase. Above 1800 m, the situation will become exceptional, comparable to February 1996 or January 1999 (to just to mention these two)
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@bart_bdv, thanks, interesting. Obviously it's a guessing game, but I think you're probably about right with 1500m the break even height. And also with the higher altitudes. But between 800 and 1500m there's still a deep snowpack (I would guess at over a metre generally), so would 2 days of heavy rain really be enough to wash that all away? Surely not - if so, then resorts like Morzine and Megeve would be in big trouble.
@bart_bdv, thanks, interesting. Obviously it's a guessing game, but I think you're probably about right with 1500m the break even height. And also with the higher altitudes. But between 800 and 1500m there's still a deep snowpack (I would guess at over a metre generally), so would 2 days of heavy rain really be enough to wash that all away? Surely not - if so, then resorts like Morzine and Megeve would be in big trouble.
1 meter of compact snow does not rain away easily that is for sure. I believe that as a very general rule (of course depends on many other factors like wind etcetera), 10mm of rain only melts 1 cm of compact snow (but I'm not quite sure about the rule anymore, but its is much less than you would think).
It also depends on where you are located. Mégève is in de Val D'Arly, well known to keep the cold very well. So here it will snow longer and rain somewhat less. So Mégève no problem I would say. The Vercors on the other gets almost immediately the warm air, so here it will rain a lot and a return to green is well probable . Due to this reason there is already now less snow in the Vercors than in the Chablais at the same altitude. Chablais will be between Vercors and Val D'arly in terms of snow melt.
Don't forget also that the pistes are very compact with artifical snow, so even if it becomes green around, the pistes should survive.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I've been watching the GFS ensembles closely for a week long trip to Livigno leaving on Saturday 6th. It's been interesting to watch the spike of precipitation bubbling up around the 7th-11th Jan for the Central/Southern alps. It's been showing for the last few runs, but hasn't really settled or firmed up.
To the experts out there, is that spike suggestive of snow coming from the south?
It seems to be much less present on the ensembles for the Arlberg just a bit further north, but over the main alpine ridge
It's fascinating to see how drastically the weather differs in Livigno and the Arlberg, despite being relatively close and on the same longitude.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@element, different neighbouring valleys can have dramatically different snowfall.
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😱😱😱
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@under a new name, yeah, it's fascinating to watch. I picked Livigno and the Arlberg as the GFS model I use on Wetterzentrale only has a 1 degree resolution, and the model it showed for both Livigno and the Arlberg (47N-10E) often had no relation to what was actually happening in Livigno, but seemed to be pretty accurate for the Arlberg. The North/South split seems to be the big factor. On a local level, I've come through Bormio and seen green fields above the town at over 2000m, while all of Livigno just over the ridge has been white at 1800m.
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