 Poster: A snowHead
|
There is a view in the UK that the way out of lockdown is mass vaccination.
If this is true then we're screwed in France for the foreseeable future.
Now that AZ is back on the French menu we contacted our friendly doctor at the Chatel Medi centre to see if we could arrange jabs for two neighbours (70 + 66) who do not speak French as well as us.
The first time they answered a different doctor answered ( a man this time ) he said that he would not give the AZ jab to people older than 65, and they would need to wait until he had access to another vaccine.
Luckily Mrs WoC does not take "no" for an answer, so she called back a few minutes later, this time she got thru to the nice lady doctor who jabbed us on Monday. She said that it was fine and she has booked them in for Monday - maybe that's her jab-a-brit day 
How can this country hope to get its population vaccinated, when due to the politicising on vaccination brands only 24% of French people say they would have the AZ jab, only 54% of people would have any jab at all, and doctors are just plainly ignoring the advice of the WHO, the EMA and their own government.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| Weathercam wrote: |
@admin, (...)
Doing what I did is totally different to coming for just one week's holiday, ...
People living here have a totally different mindset and live accordingly, especially in these times compared to people who are here on holiday, some of the antics you just would not see out of the holidays.
|
Sorry mate, but I need to call bs. In the second half of january France was heavily hit by a third wave with numbers of daily new infected doubling within a week and hospitals on the brink. The French government panicked, and righly so. As we all know, they desparately responded with the draconic measures of a 6pm curfew and by restricting recreational outings to 1km from home max. Whereupon yours truely Mr. Weathercam responded with... well, let me put it in his own words:
The evening of the 21st January, I was out walking the dogs after curfew with my attestation which allows me to exercise pets within 1km from my home and I happened to have supper at friends 0.98km from chez moi. Joining us were two friends who both run businesses that heavily rely on tourists, one being the most popular bar/restaurants in Serre Chevalier at the foot of the pistes and the other a Gite Hotel and numerous apartments.
https://www.stylealtitude.com/life-in-serre-chevalier-with-lifts-and-bars-closed.html
I rest my case there.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
"There is a view in the UK that the way out of lockdown is mass vaccination.
If this is true then we're screwed in France for the foreseeable future."
I don't know the view over there, but it seems an undercurrent of perception that the faster the vaccine program rolls out, the lower the risk of mutation getting embedded and not being controllable with current strategies. That seems to be more of a potential risk, IF true.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
@ski3 You're right, and it's based on what has happened before, in previous epidemics and pandemics. Prof. Whitty said early on that once you start a vaccination programme, then the race is on to complete it and get to the 75%+ herd immunity level. Because as the unvaccinated proportion diminishes, mutation increases. It's almost worse to start on a vaccination programme and then give up or take it too slow, as this forces the mutation rate, and increases the chance of a resistant mutation putting you back at square#1 again.
The caveat is that I'm not an epidemiologist and this is from my recllection of one of the Downing Street Briefings, plus a read of the excellent book by Eula Biss 'On Immunity: An Inoculation' (2014) - she's a science journalist, not a medic, who manages to conclude that vaccination is positive, but without demonising those who don't agree. The other book I found fascinating was Laura Spinney's 'The Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and how it changed the world' (2017). I'd read both before the covid pandemic began - watching the latter unfold, it seemed clear that no one in the Cabinet had.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
@LaForet, Chris Whitty knows a lot more than me - but surely mutations that can cause second infections in those protected by having had Covid previously would exploit the same natural selection advantage as if they were evading protection from vaccination. In other words, it isn't the vaccines that drive the appearance of variants. The effect would be much the same though, since all the current vaccines will prime the immune system to the same form of Covid as infection with the original strain.
But I can imagine, even if I don't know how to do the calculation, that there is a "sweet spot" for variants appearing at a point when infections are still high (it needs virus replication within infected patients for mutations to occur) but there is a large pool of vaccinated individuals ripe for infection by a variant which evaded their protection. Coupled with the possibility the vaccinated population may be more relaxed at taking other precautions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
@LaForet, interesting post. As a scientist but not a virologist, I wonder. Given vaccines target the same spike protein that CV uses to infect us, if it changed its spike protein so much that it could evade vaccines, then that might make it harder for it to infect and get into our cells.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So France has resumed vaccinations with AZ. But having previously barred its use for 65+ it is now limited to those 55+. Due to the few unrelated blood clots occurring in younger age groups. No wonder the french are confused and sceptical. Castex aged 55 who had it today just crept in 
Should be plenty around for my 2nd dose I think.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The sheer cussedness and stupidity of governments facing big surges in infection rates beggars belief. Yes, individual citizens will be scared and irrational and have no understanding of risk. But there's no excuse for the people who are supposed to be in charge.  It's a kind of collective madness.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
@pam w, You have a wonderful way of stating my very thoughts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| snowhound wrote: |
| @LaForet, interesting post. As a scientist but not a virologist, I wonder. Given vaccines target the same spike protein that CV uses to infect us, if it changed its spike protein so much that it could evade vaccines, then that might make it harder for it to infect and get into our cells. |
I can thoroughly recommend giving @sailorrooscout a follow on Twitter. She’s a molecular biologist working on the Moderna vaccine and explains stuff really well. As I understand her viruses can’t mutate selectively to avoid vaccines - but the more infections there are the more mutations there are and the more likely one will turn up that evades the vaccine - however none of the current mutations (or KILLER DEATH MUTANTS as the BBC prefer to call them) will completely avoid any of the current vaccines as the antibody response is so good. The other thing is t-cells which are another element of the immune system that stops any infection causing serious illness (which at the end of the day is the important thing). She also says there’s signs that the virus will eventually run out of ways to mutate (exactly as you suggest) whilst remaining able to infect people - as she put it “it may have given us its best shot”. She certainly seems optimistic that vaccines will see us out of this.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
| LaForet wrote: |
| @ski3 You're right, and it's based on what has happened before, in previous epidemics and pandemics. Prof. Whitty said early on that once you start a vaccination programme, then the race is on to complete it and get to the 75%+ herd immunity level. Because as the unvaccinated proportion diminishes, mutation increases. .... |
The herd immunity rate keeps being banded around at 75% (Good to see the + on your number). That is incorrect for COVID.
You hear a lot about the R rate or Reproduction rate - a measure of how many people each carrier infects. For the pandemic to shrink we know R needs to be below 1.0 .
There is also an R0 rate that is the natural R rate of the virus in the absence of any community measures like social distancing. For reference, Flu R0=1.6 and COVID R0=4.0 with the Kent variant being around R0=5.5. So from this it is clear that COVID is 3 to 4 times more infectious than Flu.
Each measure put into place will reduce R by a set amount. That can be closing pubs, shops or schools, or using masks & hand gel. In addition to stopping vulnerable groups getting sick and dying, the vaccine also has an effect on R – hopefully quite a big effect.
Herd immunity is achieved when the percent of people unable to transmit the virus is greater than the R0 rate. The math around herd immunity is simple but I have been explicit about the brackets so no one has to think about precedence rules.
Herd Immunity Threshold = 1 - ((1/R0) * Vaccine transmission prevention percent)
So given...
R0 = 4
Vaccine transmission prevention = Preventing 75% of transmission
1 - ((1/4) * .75) = 81.25%
So you need to vaccinate 81.25% to gain herd immunity
Now, given the Kent variant is estimated at
R0 = 5.5
Vaccine transmission prevention = Preventing 75% of transmission
1 - ((1/5.5) * .75) = 86.36%
So you need to vaccinate 86.36% to gain herd immunity
And that is higher than most vaccination campaigns achieve.
Either we get to that 86.36% level, or we will all have to maintain community measures like mask wearing or occasional lockdowns indefinitely . (This takes no account of the amount of the population that get short term immunity from getting COVID)
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
I find the science of this fascinating. I realise viruses mutate randomly and occasionally get lucky. It’s interesting that the same mutations are appearing independently all over the world. In other words, it is finding and using the same trick in different places. Should make boosters easier and one should target lots of variants.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 19-03-21 21:13; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| snowhound wrote: |
| @LaForet, interesting post. As a scientist but not a virologist, I wonder. Given vaccines target the same spike protein that CV uses to infect us, if it changed its spike protein so much that it could evade vaccines, then that might make it harder for it to infect and get into our cells. |
Absolutely true. And something I haven't seen analysed in public.
It is interesting how many of the same mutations seem to have been recorded in variants arising in different places (although that could possibly be due to viral recombination which again I haven't seen much analysed). That might imply there is a limited repertoire of mutations that still allow human infection to appear. There is one report somewhere of a patient on immunosuppressant drugs as part of cancer treatment, where multiple mutations seemed to arise over several months but again concentrated on the same parts of the spike protein where other variants have changes (I think it was that case that led to the hypothesis something similar must have happened for the UK/Kent variant).
My surprise at not having seen more scientific discussion of this is that if the number of viable variants is finite and able to be determined, a vaccine against all Covid variants could be designed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
The French press are giving Macron a rough ride today saying that locking down Paris is an admission of failure.
Was planning a trip in May but not sure if we will be allowed?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
@ringingmaster, if we vaccinate less than the % required for herd immunity then people will get infected. They will then have antibodies - will this effectively increase the vaccinated % so ultimately we will achieve herd immunity by a combination of vaccination and natural infection?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
@MorningGory, yes. That is how I read it.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
@MorningGory, With the added factor of additional Hospitalisation and deaths in the group that get infected rather than vaccinated. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
@ringingmaster, I think it is a pity that herd immunity has become an obsession of the press. They hadn't heard of it until this time last year.
I don't think it is realistically attainable as a target. In your calculation you assume a vaccine stops 75% of transmission, which is presumably a guess. The data from those who have been tested regularly suggests it stops around 60% of infections but those are almost all mild and usually asymptomatic; it is possible those individuals are less likely to pass infection on but I don't think you can take that for granted. And the number may differ for some of the variants.
However if vaccination stops serious illness, hospitalisation and death then it is a huge benefit. There are also likely to be fewer infections around, which should reduce the likelihood of new variants arising. In fact there is no selective advantage for mutations causing serious disease in the way there is for ones that allow it to spread despite protection from vaccination or previous infection, and one might expect (and arguably hope) that over time milder but more transmissable variants become dominant.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
@j b, The 75% came from early data. I wrote that post for another forum about 6 weeks ago. but I am dammed if I can find it now. There is probably better data now. You can plug in your numbers to the calculation.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
FFS...we don't have to eliminate CV
We just have to get general population immunity to a point where getting CV does not overload (or even significantly load) the NHS in general, and more specifically Intensive Care.
We will never get to zero...people will get CV, some will need hospitalisation, and some will die.
Even if loads and loads of people get a mild form of CV...well that is OK.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Quote: |
As we all know, they desparately responded ... and by restricting recreational outings to 1km from home max.
|
@Tristero, I don't know which bit of France you're living in but that certainly was not the case here (Haute Savoie) ... there have been no distance limitations since early December ...
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reasonably busy with new arrivals here today. Glancing at cars as I wandered back I didn't see any 75 plates though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@rungsp, you've said that before, but I don't think it's true. Unless France, UK and everywhere else get the number of cases down to a low level (rather lower than the number of flu cases in a typical winter) there will continue to be many new mutations. At some point one will not respond to current vaccines / immunity, and the world will have to start all over again with a new vaccine. Until Europe gets things down to a low level I can't see us being allowed to travel there; it really is a case of everywhere or effectively nowhere.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Rather worryingly, over the past 4 days, the new daily case rate is averaging ~ 36,000, an increase of ~20% over previous weeks which have been *relatively* stable, possibly fallout from the crazy decision to allow free travel throughout France for 4 weeks over the holidays?
Without a decent vaccination system in place I'm seriously concerned about an exponential increase in the numbers if this isn't just a spike..........
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@ecureuil, new mutations are somewhat unpredictable. The mechanisms are in place for rapid release vaccines. There are new ones twice a year for boring old 'flu ...
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
@KenX, what’s been happening underneath the optically stable case numbers is that the variant cases are rising rapidly and the legacy cases are falling.
Without much stricter lockdown, there was always going to be a tipping point around about now, as the variant numbers become dominant in the mix. This was totally predictable.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
@snowhound said “LaForet, interesting post... Given vaccines target the same spike protein that CV uses to infect us, if it changed its spike protein so much that it could evade vaccines, then that might make it harder for it to infect and get into our cells.”
This may be part of the reason for a lack of large numbers of viable (those that persist) variants: the virus can only adopt a limited number of guises, it’s only got so many cards to play. So, we see British, Safa and Brazilians persisting and we do not observe the variants that cannot infect us so cannot multiply so go extinct.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The other problem is the astonishingly low level of genome sequencing in Europe.
The UK does about 50% of the whole world's sequencing...we KNOW if there are new variants, how many and where they are.
In Europe that have not got a clue.
I've mentioned this before...Wales did more genome sequencing tests in a week than France had done in the whole pandemic.
It is the "new" test and trace...and it is the one that is really vital.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| Grinning wrote: |
| we do not observe the variants that cannot infect us so cannot multiply so go extinct. |
Maybe that Darwin chap was onto something with his natural selection theory...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
I'll make the french government aware of how much expertise they can tap into on snowheads 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
@Claude B, 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
What I don’t understand about France is the lack of urgency. A fair amount of their income comes from tourism both in summer and winter, a lot more than here presumably? But they don’t seem to be bricking it, it’s like they don’t really care about people’s businesses being affected?
Maybe I’m wrong but that’s the impression I’ve got, they aren’t fussed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
@stewart woodward, But only between May and October!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| snowdave wrote: |
@KenX, what’s been happening underneath the optically stable case numbers is that the variant cases are rising rapidly and the legacy cases are falling.
Without much stricter lockdown, there was always going to be a tipping point around about now, as the variant numbers become dominant in the mix. This was totally predictable. |
What interests me (as a scientist working in France) is the different response to sequencing. The UK has a collaboration between the Wellcome trust and 16 Universities (with ~complete geographical coverage).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_Genomics_UK_Consortium
The level of investment (and frankly academic standard) is so low here that there is nothing comparable. Actually, even if you could parachute in brand new equipment, it would be absolutely impossible to get people to run it. There would be huge problems with unions, University hierarchy etc. I heard an interesting interview on the radio a few days ago where it was said that the government has essentially given up on a huge swathe of French research. I think this is essentially true, and commensurate with the extra investment going into e.g. Engineering schools instead.
Indeed, Wales does 10 X the amount of sequencing compared to France. Pandemics have a way of exposing weaknesses, (as we saw with the very high death rates in the UK early on)... Interesting times!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In one day, yesterday, the UK gave around 12% of France's overall total vaccines.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Careful what you say @JamesHJ, there are a lot of people here who normally have the attitude that France>U.K. in just about everything.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
| VolklAttivaS5 wrote: |
What I don’t understand about France is the lack of urgency. A fair amount of their income comes from tourism both in summer and winter, a lot more than here presumably? But they don’t seem to be bricking it, it’s like they don’t really care about people’s businesses being affected?
Maybe I’m wrong but that’s the impression I’ve got, they aren’t fussed. |
France and UK tourism are roughly similar. e.g. see https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Tourism_statistics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| rungsp wrote: |
| Careful what you say @JamesHJ, there are a lot of people here who normally have the attitude that France>U.K. in just about everything. |
Places have pluses and minuses it turns out. France is the best place in the world to go on holiday. You probably wouldn't want to work here though 
I didn't appreciate just how good e.g. UK universities were when I grew up.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
