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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

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Piles of slush cleared from overnight snow on the webcams in St Gervais town, NW French Alps this morning (800m) but long since turned to rain. Also now appears to be rain on the Evasion Mont Blanc webcams (c. 1700m).

Compared to the text forecasts I was reading, that suggests an initially lower snowline than expected, but then a bigger rise in temps than expected too.

Freezing level should drop again as the next (cold) front approaches later today.
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JohnMo wrote:
davidof wrote:
Zero iso at 2000m and rain at around 1800. Had hoped it would stay lower. A lot of snow over 2000m though. Rain has stopped since 10am so doesn't look like we'll get any snow at mid altitudes.



I guess Grenoble is that much further south. But in Valais in Switzerland the precipitation last night fell as snow not just in the mountains but all along the Rhône valley from Visp at 660m down to Martigny at 470m. Martigny is close to the French border and the precipitation was coming from that direction so it would have been falling as snow at fairly low levels in the northern French Alps as it came across.


I've no idea about Switzerland but the FL was around 2000/2100 m in Chamonix from before midnight. Rain also at 1900 meters in the Bauges, which is north of me according to a friend who has just got back.
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davidof wrote:


I've no idea about Switzerland but the FL was around 2000/2100 m in Chamonix from before midnight.


Interesting. Chamonix is not that much further south than Zermatt. It has struggled to get above zero in Zermatt (at 1600m) all day today.
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JohnMo wrote:
davidof wrote:


I've no idea about Switzerland but the FL was around 2000/2100 m in Chamonix from before midnight.


Interesting. Chamonix is not that much further south than Zermatt. It has struggled to get above zero in Zermatt (at 1600m) all day today.


I'm going on the Meteo France monitoring station on the Aiguilles Rouges but it may be inaccurate.

There is a big difference in the FLs MF is giving for the Aravis: 2100 meters on Sunday morning and Chamonix: 1500 m - given we are talking about a few kms (and FL of 2200 m for the Belledonne - hence the rain at high levels experienced by the 7 laux.
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“Exceptional view of downslope (katabatic) winds in Jura neuchâtelois, Switzerland yestrday, December 15. Report: Jura & Trois-Lacs”

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/1074315580935688192?s=21
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Difference in freezing levels can often be explained by how far into the Alps the location is. Cold air can get "trapped" in inner-Alpine valleys as warm air moves in, whereas resorts on the edge of the Alps are more exposed to rising temperatures.

Aravis / Les 7 Laux are particularly exposed to warm fronts coming in from the west, while Chamonix usually holds onto cold air a bit better (it's slightly further into the Alps), and Zermatt is right in the middle of the Alps (and further east, which also usually helps), giving much better protection from warm fronts.
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denfinella wrote:
Compared to the text forecasts I was reading, that suggests an initially lower snowline than expected, but then a bigger rise in temps than expected too.

Freezing level should drop again as the next (cold) front approaches later today.
That's my experience here in Les Arcs. I was expecting yesterday's snowline initially to be quite high, then drop overnight, but saw the opposite of that (although my expectations might have been wrong from only glancing at one forecast). It was about -5 yesterday evening (at 1800m) when it started to snow, and stayed there until the early hours as the snow continued to fall, but then temperatures rose and there snow turned to rain, with the temperature peaking at +4 this afternoon.
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amazing Jura vid

Grenoble looks to be near the sweet spot for the next 24hours (below)....most of western ridge to get 10-20cm to low levels mon, then heavier falls wed/thurs to 1200m.



But then the fun stops, next weekend looking wet and mild, possibly a wash out to above 2000m... too far away to completely write off, but seems to be a lot of agreement now that ECM was on the right track (mild christmas).
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Snow depths in Switzerland at 2000m on Thursday as a % of normal.
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davidof wrote:


Zero iso at 2000m and rain at around 1800. Had hoped it would stay lower. A lot of snow over 2000m though. Rain has stopped since 10am so doesn't look like we'll get any snow at mid altitudes.


It was more like April today.

Rainy and warm.

Lots of brown trails below ~1600m in the 3Vs.

Looks like it's shaping up as a repeat of last season -- plenty of snow up high, big rain down low.
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To my amateur eyes and looking at Les Arcs and todays 6z GFS seems like the precipitation will come with lower temps in 2 phases this week, then a 3rd storm on the days before Xmas (without much agreement), it then warms up over Xmas but the precipitation is stopping by then and temps drop again after Xmas (but models not converging much on this)? Likely will change through the next week...

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@Whitegold, suggest you look at the Serre thread Cool

Currently awaiting the next batch of the white stuff to come down, though don't think it will be as much as early hours of today.

I did say a few days ago that there was a good chance of a Retour Est - and there is now an area of low pressure pretty well over Genoa and predicted radar is interesting

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Certainly hasn’t felt like April in Austria today. Brrr.

Nor does it make much sense to cherry pick the milder weather in parts of the French Alps and then extrapolate them to make an inaccurate comparison with a mischaracterisation of last season to try to project what this season will turn out to be like from mid December. But there you go...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, of course it makes sense if your sole purpose in life is to troll this forum and get a rise out of people. rolling eyes
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And of course not being in the Alps last year white gold can be excused ...
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Whitegold wrote:
davidof wrote:


Zero iso at 2000m and rain at around 1800. Had hoped it would stay lower. A lot of snow over 2000m though. Rain has stopped since 10am so doesn't look like we'll get any snow at mid altitudes.


It was more like April today.

Rainy and warm.

Lots of brown trails below ~1600m in the 3Vs.

Looks like it's shaping up as a repeat of last season -- plenty of snow up high, big rain down low.


So whereabouts in the 3Vs are you reporting these pearls of wisdom from. Puzzled
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Just to keep you on your toes, 18z would be a colder than average and snowy Christmas...


http://youtube.com/v/-9hEzcpYOQc
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@nozawaonsen,
If that means colder and a chance of snow I will take that please.
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Just to keep you on your toes, 18z would be a colder than average and snowy Christmas...



Another Nordstau coming down with old St Nick from the frozen North would suit me fine too! snowHead
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Another 10cm on the car at 1500m this morning...

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Our overnight / early hours snowfall failed to happen.

And looks like the upper lifts are still not scheduled to open.

Decisions as to what to do rolling eyes
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00z GFS has colder weather arriving on Christmas Day (though with an emphasis to the Easter side of the Alps). 00z ECM waits till Boxing Day.

Fair amount of snow looks likely towards the end of this week at the western end of the Alps. Though temperatures look like rising from Friday.

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06z also a snowy Christmas in the northern Alps.

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yep big move SW for that low on the GFS Para 06z as well for 25th, even if only briefly....while ECM 0z a little standoff-ish with only 30-40% of ensembles (2 purple boxes) turning the isobars N/NW. But quite a big spread of options for 7-8 days out.



The SSW is still likely to happen 23-24 dec. Reading it hits 6 standard deviations of heat flux....as in one in every 1.4 million years Very Happy
Plently of dodgy maths involved though, such as not having a normal distribution. Either way, it's off the charts stratospheric warming for dec.
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Just read this which explains Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW ) for non meteorologists.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming
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polo wrote:

.....
The SSW is still likely to happen 23-24 dec. Reading it hits 6 standard deviations of heat flux....as in one in every 1.4 million years Very Happy
Plently of dodgy maths involved though, such as not having a normal distribution. Either way, it's off the charts stratospheric warming for dec.


JESUS is coming..... Believe Smile
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
horgand wrote:
polo wrote:

.....
The SSW is still likely to happen 23-24 dec. Reading it hits 6 standard deviations of heat flux....as in one in every 1.4 million years Very Happy
Plently of dodgy maths involved though, such as not having a normal distribution. Either way, it's off the charts stratospheric warming for dec.


JESUS is coming..... Believe Smile


Bejaysus and Begorrah! Shocked

Can I just say goodbye to you all and nice knowing you, if I don't get a chance later! Laughing
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Around 20cm of fresh in the 3Vs today.
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More snow incoming for the PNW. Going to be a bit of a yo-yo effect with the temps. Later in the week, the temps will progress lower. Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is 20cm-30cm. During Tuesday into Wednesday another 20cm is possible. Friday looks promising for another round with cold temps.



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Russeh wrote:
Just read this which explains Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW ) for non meteorologists.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming


I like this vid.
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Has the Nordstau for Austria at Xmas disappeared? I can't see it on the 06Z. Looks like a mild Xmas with some rain to lower elevations, but getting colder again into New Year as the ensemble average dips back below mean.
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luigi wrote:
Has the Nordstau for Austria at Xmas disappeared? I can't see it on the 06Z. Looks like a mild Xmas with some rain to lower elevations, but getting colder again into New Year as the ensemble average dips back below mean.


I think the 06 & 18 are not as comprehensive models as the 00 & 12
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Good tweet by Amy Butler on the difficultly of predicting the impact of SSWs.

https://twitter.com/drahbutler/status/1075064716316344320?s=21
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Moderate snowfall in France tomorrow.

Trails are icy and like concrete in the 3Vs right now.

Offpiste pretty good for time of year.
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@Whitegold, what you talking about Lewis?
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Atmospheric River incoming! PNW (including Whistler-Blackcomb) getting the goods. Lots of snow stakes reported 20-35cm before opening bell. More storminess for Wednesday and colder temps on the way. Thursday morning also looking to get another dose of refresh of the slopes.

Looking out toward Xmas week, there appear to be low pressure trough building with a series of storms that might split and deliver some energy into the PNW and down into the Sierras and making their way into the Wasatch and Colorado Rockies.
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Looking at this morning forecast on Bergfex Christmas is looking very Grim in the Skiwelt Austria. As the saying goes only one thing worse than mild weather in the Alps and that is Mild Wet Weather and that looks like what is coming
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@2waterford, temperatures around average for the time of year and largely dry. Grim???

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queenie pretty please wrote:
@2waterford, temperatures around average for the time of year and largely dry. Grim???



Thank you. I did say I was looking at Bergfex.
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