@Peter S, well you could ask something about on what basis the government or local government makes decisions about purchasing snow clearing equipment. What is the annual budget for doing so in different areas and whether there has been any study into the economic costs of disruption as a result of snow. I suppose if you wanted. Or you could just moan about your so called “hazardous snow” and use rolling eye emojis.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks like a fairly serious dump is underway in the northern French resorts
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
In the words of Clark Griswald "drum roll please....Joy to the world"..... it's snowing heavily again, tomorrow will be formidable.
Latest ECM pressure clusters indicate 1-2 Jan has support, and 5-8 Jan throwing some nice NW'ly shapes in as well. Long way out but a good call so far.
Short term alternating tropical/polar maritime flow = snow to 29th, then heavy rain sat 30th to 1800, then snow again later
@Peter S, well indeed. In that case you could just ask rather than moan and roll your eyes.
Here’s what the Met Office Contingency Planners make of Jan to March. All the usual caveats apply.
La Niña, the cold counterpart to El Niño, has become established in the Central and Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Long-range prediction systems indicate that it will persist throughout the period of this outlook. La Niña affects patterns of rainfall in the tropics, and in late winter these changes increase the chances of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Positive NAO increases the likelihood of weather patterns with winds from the west, leading to milder-than-average conditions.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an area of enhanced thundery activity that moves eastwards through the tropics over a period of several weeks. It has recently been active and is currently in a location that frequently leads to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation about 10 days later. The negative phase of the NAO brings colder-than- average conditions to the UK, implying an increased chance of colder- than-average temperatures in early January.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), an oscillation of the equatorial winds in the stratosphere, is in its easterly phase. An easterly phase of the QBO tends to increase the likelihood of a negative phase of the NAO, which in turn increases the chances of below-average temperatures.
For January, the Met Office long-range prediction system and systems from other prediction centres around the world show good agreement on an increased likelihood of cyclonic weather patterns over the North Atlantic and Northwest Europe. These patterns favour mild westerly winds, but also increase the chances of colder north or north-westerly winds, suggesting a changeable situation with a mix of conditions. For the month on average, higher-than-normal temperatures are slightly more likely than below-average temperatures (see left-hand graph of figure T2).
For January-February-March as whole, long-range forecast systems show good agreement on an increased chance of a positive NAO pattern. As a result, there is a higher-than-normal likelihood of above- average temperatures in the 3-month period (see right hand graph of figure T2). Significant cold weather impacts, such as from frost, fog and snow, are less likely than normal, although they remain possible.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Never have I been this relaxed about the weather 30 days before a ski holiday. What a fantastic start to the season. Keep up the good work chaps.
After all it is free
After all it is free
12z GFS sends repeated bands of snow across the northern Alps between now and at least 10 January.
Obviously the further out you go the less confidence you can have in that, but for now the outlook continues to be pretty snowy.
Where it gets a bit more complicated is the temperatures.
At present the main problems look likely this Friday and Saturday when there could be heavy rain in the northern Alps (more so in the west) below 1700-1900m along with strong winds.
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@nozawaonsen, friday 29th NW alps the mean freeze level per GFS 12z is 800m...wondering where you are seeing different?
ECM also points towards Sat afternoon into Sun 31st for the spike in temps.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Last few runs of gfs have revised the freezing levels down a bit for nw alps. What was looking like a washout at lower levels this weekend might come good.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@snoozeboy, not so sure about that.
@langball, yep my muddle.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Here are some extracts from SLF’s outlook for Switzerland [my bold].
On Wednesday night in southern regions, the snowfall will taper off. At the same time in northern regions, snowfall will set in, which subsequently will slacken off during the course of the day from west to east. As of midday in western and southern regions, bright intervals are anticipated, skies in eastern regions are expected to remain heavily overcast for the most part.
Fresh snow
Between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon above 1000 m, the following amounts of snowfall are anticipated:
Lower Valais, northern flank of the Alps and Grisons: 15 to 30 cm;
Upper Valais and Ticino: 5 to 15 cm;
Jura region: 10 to 20 cm.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, -11 °C in northern regions and -7 °C in southern regions.
Wind
Winds will be blowing at strong velocity at high altitude, from the northwest.
In the Ticino, strong northerly foehn winds will be blowing down into the valleys.
Outlook through Saturday, 30.12.2017
Friday
During the morning in western regions, final bright intervals are expected, in eastern and southern regions it will be quite sunny. During the course of the day, cloud cover will move in from the west and a small amount of snowfall is expected. The westerly winds will intensify. The avalanche situation is not expected to change significantly.
Saturday
On Saturday in western and northern regions, intensive precipitation is expected. The snowfall level will rapidly ascend to 2000 m. The danger of dry-snow avalanches at high altitudes and the danger of wet-snow avalanches at low and intermediate altitudes will increase significantly in western and in northern regions. The southern regions will be relatively little affected by the precipitation and the rising temperatures. Thus, the avalanche situation is not expected to change significantly there.”
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Still looking dry in a lot of the western US compared to normal.
Yes GFS and metoceil are projecting large quantities of snow particularly western high alps. Likely to be problematic......even with lots of snow clearing equipment.
Uk projection returning cool and unsettled again next week.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Massive snow here in the Beaufortain. More than anyone forecast.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Whitegold wrote:
The Alpine glaciers have been battered by heavy rain the past week.
Some, like Kaprun in Austria, lost huge amounts of snow and were closed for a whole day or two.
That’s a lot of snow primarily for the northern Alps on top of a lot of snow. And of course on Saturday that’s going to be heavy rain below roughly 1700-1900m (less so further east). Add to that some strong winds.
So there will be lift closures at times and potentially it may effect infrastructure more generally where the snowfall is especially heavy. Avalanche risk will rise considerably.
Still.
A lot of snow.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
How may the rain affect the snow layer at 1000-1500meters in the northwest? Solidifying or spoiling? I still have a dream about doing the entire Vallee Blanche in Cham sometime!
@staffsan, with high winds and heavy snow not sure it will be an option for a while.
Heavy rain will increase will increase the likelihood of wet avalanches. When it refreezes it will resolve some of the existing faults but may create new ones.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, right, but im going week 4 and 5, so mainly wondering wether the base layer at lower altitude will disappear?
After all it is free
After all it is free
@nozawaonsen, what do the ensembles look like for glencoe/nevis range? pretty much a week of snow forecast, but I'm wondering will it be enough for uplift?
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@nozawaonsen, a belated thank you for your advice re: where to go over the next few days. Opted for Skier’s lodge in La Grave and forecast looks exciting but worryingly windy...
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Whitegold has been very quiet of late...........
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Tempete Bruno left us with a ton of powder in the Pyrenees overnight with heavy snow down to 500m.
Delays opening some areas this morning while the PIDA teams went about their business but the conditions were awesome
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
staffsan wrote:
@nozawaonsen, right, but im going week 4 and 5, so mainly wondering wether the base layer at lower altitude will disappear?
That is a ridiculously long time away to be speculating about snow conditions. Maybe any incoming rain will affect snow quality on the lower slopes. Maybe it will snow again at low altitude before you arrive.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The January outlook looks pretty good for the Northern Alps with a +NAO driver based forecast. Interesting times.....
Hmm was actually considering a very last minute booking of a new years trip to the French alps, but with the huge amount of snow forecasted i don't know if it wil be worth it? Yr.no forecasts heavy snowfall until january 6. And with the new years week being busier than average, it doesn't seem like there will be much enjoyable skiing?
Or am i just too worried?
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@staffsan, of course it will. It always does every January.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, all right all right, im asking stupid questions etc. Just wondering if this rain will might melt away any rideable snow at lower altitude.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
Still looking dry in a lot of the western US compared to normal.
PNW will get a decent amount of snow Thursday-Saturday morning with fluctuating snow levels. Whistler should get a good bit of snow in the 50cm range over the next 3 days. Areas of the Northern Cascades should see similar numbers. Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming will also do well from the series of storms passing through.
Utah, and Tahoe resorts will miss out yet again. But Colorado did just fine over Christmas with up to 60CM of freshies over the holiday. But we need some consistency in the storm cycles. That pesky high pressure seems to want to come back and visit again off the West Coast.
@nozawaonsen, all right all right, im asking stupid questions etc. Just wondering if this rain will might melt away any rideable snow at lower altitude.
It will probably melt some of it. Then freeze again, then snow again, then rain again, then snow again, then melt again, then snow again etc etc before you arrive
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Thu 28-12-17 23:37; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
As ever don’t take the numbers too seriously and of course a lot of this will be rain beneath 2000m on Saturday, but that (on 18z) is a lot of snow for the western end of the northern Alps in the next week or so...
After all it is free
After all it is free
How is eastern europe looking? not everyone is going to the alps
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FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
