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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Very windy overnight. The local resorts (Chamrouse, Les Sept Laux) are shut. St Geoirs is a bleak spot, it is a bit less windy around Grenoble, about 80kph but 150kph on the summits is not impossible. Rain expected later to around 2000 meters, zero iso is at 2500 meters but there will be a real yo-yo in temperatures over the weekend with snow to 600 meters then high altitude rain etc through to Monday. Saturday morning looks like the best window before a storm blows through in the afternoon.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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munich_irish wrote:
@nozawaonsen,

Compare Val d'Isere

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=39314&model=gfs&var=203&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

where the forecast is for a lot more snow to fall on top of a good base to Kitzbühel

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=3095&model=gfs&var=203&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

where not so much is going to be falling onto green (and probably warm & dry) mountainsides.

It might be enough to make things look pretty but seems unlikely to be enough to provide for a decent skiing base even on the meadows of the eastern alps.


Except many if not most of the runs will already have a base, and they presumably will have been using the cannons. The Streif resort run is open for example.

So I am not really sure what your point is?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
This Ski Pass article is good in terms of showing the impact the recent warm weather has had.

https://www.skipass.com/news/196733-meteo-du-jeudi-restera-t-il-neige.html
.



good pics but the kidz of skipass have short memories. These pre-Christmas foehn weather patterns are not a new thing but may well be related to global warming - the Mediterranean is warmer and stays warm longer into autumn and that seems to be the driver of the bigger autumn storms, sometimes massive frontier snowfalls and maybe drives the huge foehn events in December. Last winter we didn't suffer too much but the previous 3 or 4 winters really didn't get going until mid January after promising November starts. This year the foehns have been massive but there has been a bit more snow so things are ok at the moment, at least above 1500 meters. The bottom of the 7 Laux isn't looking too chipper but a couple of hundred meters higher it is not so bad



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@davidof, it was the slidey pics that I enjoyed playing with.
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Weathercam wrote:


Different story today, 2.6 degrees and heavy rain, can't see up the hill as to where the snowline is, and looks 20-25kph.

Pretty grim, suppose it's like an average day in Morzine Laughing


Smile Smile. Yep, you hit the nail on the head. We are used to it here though. I have all sorts of bricolage projects planned, or so I’m told!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, it was the slidey pics that I enjoyed playing with.


yes they are really good
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, it was the slidey pics that I enjoyed playing with.


They’re excellent! Surely the upcoming dump should ensure the best Xmas conditions for years in the Western alps?
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Wet and pissy in Les Menuires right now snow line looks around 2400
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+14C in Wengen, and a brisk föhn blowing. Zero lifts open and no trains going up the hill.
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Pissing with rain in Courchevel 1850, skied for 90 mins from 10am, snow was super sticky. Tried to go up Saulire, the wind was so violent most lifts were closed. Write off day Confused
We need that fœhn to leave!
Sat pm/Sunday should see a huge drop in temps and massive amounts of snow.
Bring it on.
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@buchanan101, the point is that for all the talk of lots of snow it is not clear that there is going be considerable snowfall for the eastern alps in the run up to Christmas, no doubt there will be some. I am erring on the not so much side (though of course I hope I am wrong).

A cursory look at the webcams shows, at best, some white ribbons on otherwise green hillsides though north facing slopes are a bit better. Even above the mid stations conditions are not great, skiable certainly but not brilliant. Given the recent weather the ground will generally be warm and dry and little or no snow making has been possible for the past few days. This means that a lot of snow is going to be needed even in typically Austrian areas where the pistes sit on grassy meadows rather than more rocky ground. Kitzbühel (and other places too) does make huge efforts to "open" the resort, the snow cannons supplemented by snow farming but there is a limit to what can be achieved without enough natural snowfall. I cant see the Christmas and New Year period being a particularly good one east of the Arlberg, best head further west if you can. I suspect I am going to be waiting for January for more snow rather than fight the crowds for small amounts of white stuff.
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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

Sunday lunchtime through Monday looks pretty wild in the west.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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@axel80, Welcome to SnowHeads.. Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
BobinCH wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof, it was the slidey pics that I enjoyed playing with.


Surely the upcoming dump should ensure the best Xmas conditions for years in the Western alps?


Some talk that the rain followed then by snow will assist in stabilising the snow pack too, hopefully correct
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@munich_irish, you're killing me! Crying or Very sad

Very sad household here as the kids look at webcams but what can we do

Just have to keep praying! Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@BRi87, take a look at our webcam, link below, sort of puking down now

I think we down Sarf have faired pretty well this week judging by various reports and this is going to be a great top-up over the next 3 days or so, even though I go back to UK tomorrow, but return 24th

Report from the front line

Rain quickly turned to snow at 1,700m and has been now snowing in the valley where temps have dropped to 1.5 degrees.

All top lifts closed due to wind, which I think was a good excuse to let a lot of people have the day off before the holidays, as there was hardly any wind at one of the lifts that took us up to 2,250 and could then see that there was no wind at the top of two other closed lifts at 2,400.

Think it was just us on the hill and that's probably why they closed the lifts as just no-one was bothering with the conditions after their morning end of the week sodden ski school group runs etc

It was the type of weather that really tests your clothing and the OH's Goretex* jacket was wet through, my new gear was fine.

And don't think it counts as powder but was not too bad at times, hasten to add that we only went up to suss a mates place out for Xmas day on the hill.



*she's never used it anger in wet snow in six years, I remember the Mkt Dir of Paramo telling us that the Goretex does break down over the years
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@BRi87, I hope for all those with holidays booked that I am being far too pessimistic (probably being excessively grumpy as have had the in laws staying for a week, now gone thank goodness a bit of peace and quiet!).
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@munich_irish, conditions above 1600m in Zillertal very good. Lower down poor or non existent. Been very warm again today with high “snow killer” winds, most lifts closed. Bergfex threatening some snow and cold temps over the coming days (starting tomorrow). Most pistes are open but it will of course be very crowded. Valley reporting 79% occupancy for Christmas week and 99% for NY week!
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Green and rainy at ~1200m in Chatel (France).

Second year in a row where France has been flooded with rain in the days before Xmas and deep winter.

Bad weather until midweek.

Disaster for the lower stations.
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Whitegold wrote:
Green and rainy at ~1200m in Chatel (France).

Second year in a row where France has been flooded with rain in the days before Xmas and deep winter.

Bad weather until midweek.

Disaster for the lower stations.


Flooding in Chatel? I wish somebody'd told me.
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@snoozeboy, that's not what he said. So it hasn't been pissing down in Chatel all day then?
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@zzz, I was trolling the troll. His implication was that it's a freak occurrence to have rain here at this time of the year, which was misleading, as you know.

I hope he'll be posting his chatel update today. He'll have heard the blasting all night on his webcam site, no doubt. Strange way to clear a flood.

To discuss this is to dignify such tosh. Much more fun to take the p!ss and go skiing.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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It's starting to look a lot like cold high pressure for the New Year period when we'll be in Sestriere.

Given the snow that has already fallen, I'll take that over fresh snow and bad light.
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Extracts from last nights SLF update...

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack

In the south a critical avalanche situation will prevail

”Fresh snow

Between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, the following amounts of fresh snow were registered above approximately 2200 m:

Bedretto valley, valleys of Maggia, Leventina: 30 to 50 cm;

furthermost western part of Lower Valais, remaining parts of the Main Alpine Ridge from Monte Rosa into the Bernina region and southwards therefrom: 15 to 30 cm;

remaining parts of the Valais sector of Main Alpine Ridge: approximately 10 cm;

in the other regions of Switzerland there was no fresh snow.

...

Weather forecast through Saturday, 21.12.2019

On Friday night the precipitation in the western regions and in the Ticino will come to an end. In the eastern regions and in Grisons, there will still be snowfall above approximately 1200 m. During the morning hours on Saturday, some last bouts of snowfall are anticipated, in the other regions of Switzerland it will be quite sunny.

Fresh snow

Between Friday afternoon and Saturday midday, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated above approximately 2000 m:

Moesano, Avers, Val Bregaglia, Bernina region, Val Poschiavo: 40 to 60 cm;

remaining parts of the Main Alpine Ridge from Bedretto valley into Val Müstair and southwards therefrom: 20 to 40 cm;

in the other regions of Switzerland: 5 to 15 cm over widespread areas; in the furthermost western regions as much as 20 cm.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between -4 °C in the northern regions and 0 °C in the southern regions.

Wind

Winds will be blowing at moderate strength during the morning hours, in the afternoon at strong velocity, from southwesterly directions.

Outlook through Monday, 23.12.2019

On Sunday and on Monday in the northern regions and the Valais, frequent snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will lie at 1200 m on Sunday, on Monday at 800 m.

Avalanche danger levels are expected to increase significantly on Sunday. In the major areas of precipitation in the western part of Lower Valais and in the northern Alpine Ridge from Trient into the Lötschental, avalanche danger level 4 (high) could be reached. On Monday, the avalanche situation in the western and the northern regions will remain critical.“
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If anyone is interested there was about 40cm of snow at altitude in the French Northern Alps but a lot of rain below 2000 meters. Snow line should be below 1000 meters tomorrow. Where it falls on pistes that had manmade snow (essentially above 1400 meters) conditions should be much improved for Christmas week. There is precious little snow on south facing slopes below 1800 meters due to the fohn but some base down to 1200 meters on north aspects (outside of open ski runs). Snow cover off piste is uneven due to the wind.
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Great snow in Cervinia, - snowboard x now on Eurosport.
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Cham météo forecasting 1m over the next 3 days although snow line up to 1800-2000m on Tuesday.
http://m.chamonix-meteo.com/en/index.php
Verbier SF says the same


And that’s on top of the 40cm that fell yesterday and overnight in the West!

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Good news for later in the season but not great news for lift or piste opening there in the next 3 days Puzzled
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Peter S, I fear you are correct. Boxing Day looks splendid however, if I am not too hungover*

(* clearly only one plan ... )
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Peter S, Verbier open up to Attelas at 2700m. But trees best today. Pick a resort that has both high altitude and trees and a good record of opening quickly and you’ll be fine wink
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Winter solstice has been and gone. It gets lighter (but not warmer) from here.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Meanwhile deep, deep, down... 200 miles (miles) deep snow cover. Intense.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191219162350.htm

“ The snow is made of tiny particles of iron -- much heavier than any snowflake on Earth's surface -- that fall from the molten outer core and pile on top of the inner core, creating piles up to 200 miles thick that cover the inner core.”

Mind you given it’s 6000C on the surface of the inner core I’m not sure what sort of wax you would need? And what sort of edges would you need for iron snow?
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Alpinwetter.at flagging that Super HD is suggesting potential for enormous (between 100-150cm) amounts of snow for the Arlberg to Montafon between now and Christmas morning.

https://www.facebook.com/291205441383986/posts/750403522130840/?d=n
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12z GFS going for a very snowy xmas day (well certainly above 1000m) in the E Alps

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions/40705/zell_am_see.htm
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Escuse me if its stupid but im going on 27dec to chamonix. All forecasts give 50-80 cm new snow in the next 3-4 days but no more snow until 1 january, just partly clouded.

Should i be worried?
Thanks
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@RonWeltyPT, no need to worry they will keep the road open.
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I was talking about pistes:p
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@RonWeltyPT, yes, unfortunately Chamonix is notoriously known for how quickly all the snow melts there. But there's a lot to do besides skiing AFaIK
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http://mobi.meteox.com/

Here is a link to the European weather radar. It shows where the precipitation is falling and where it is likely to fall soon.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure/

This is a link to the met office surface pressure chart. It indicates air flow and origin, likely wind speed (gap between isobars) and projected position of fronts and troughs (areas of possible precipitation). Clicking forward in time you can see a succession of unstable weather and the westerly and northerly air flow originating off the Atlantic. This is what is delivering all the snow at altitude, particularly in the north western alps.
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