 Poster: A snowHead
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Interesting they promote 30min updates when the major models only refresh 6 hourly I believe? |
The ensembles update every 6hrs but certainly ECM seems to update gradually over time - so for example on the 06 run today as of now it only shows up to 2 jan - over time that’ll extend that out to 11/12 jan - so maybe they add data as it’s released?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
| Interesting they promote 30min updates when the major models only refresh 6 hourly I believe? |
The ensembles update every 6hrs but certainly ECM seems to update gradually over time - so for example on the 06 run today as of now it only shows up to 2 jan - over time that’ll extend that out to 11/12 jan - so maybe they add data as it’s released? |
more than likely - it takes time to model the latest release. So incremental updates as the data is being processed?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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As predicted, sunny and dry in the European Alps this week.
Variable next week.
Moisture sweeping in (again) from the west off the Atlantic.
Looking like rain below 1500m.
Some stations, like Chamonix, may need an umbrella.
Snow above 2000m.
Head high.
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@Whitegold, Will be snow below 2000 metres in many places looking at the forecast.
Chamonix isn’t a station, it’s a town. The skiing in Cham is generally much higher than the town.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 29-12-23 8:45; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| sparkzter wrote: |
Chamonix isn’t a station, it’s a town. The skiing in Cham is generally much higher than the town. |
some of it is, some of it isn't. Skiing down from the Brevent takes you to 1100 meters. The cross country trails are at 1060 meters. The bottom of les Houches is 1025m. Argentiere, 1250m.
So rain in town, if it happens, is suboptimal if you don't want to download on the lifts.
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| sparkzter wrote: |
@Whitegold, Will be snow below 2000 metres in many places looking at the forecast.
Chamonix isn’t a station, it’s a town. The skiing in Cham is generally much higher than the town. You know this. Does it never get tiring being a miserable, full of dross dick? |
Bit extreme there there lad, maybe just chill a bit
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Thread was healthier when the experts like @polo came here with forecasts...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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How's it look for Arc 1800 next week? From my very amateur eye it looks like a very fine line between snow or rain for Tuesday/Wednesday - anyone more optimistic?
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Latest GFS run for the NW / French Alps ...
Lets' start with the not so positive news : the FL at midday on 3 January is > 2,000 metres. Unfortunately, this coincides with the heaviest precipitation (and it looks pretty heavy and consistent). Good news for Tignes, Val Thorens and Verbier. Low lying resorts around Geneva will suffer.
However, the FL seems to be heading the right way swiftly after the storm passes ... by the 5th, it seems to be plunging down to circa 1,200 metres (possibly lower) during the day and lower than 1,000 metres at night. Get those cannons firing.
Austria looks drier and colder.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@pmercer, No that’s about right, it’s still 5 days away so could change .
The problem is and has been all this season the warm air sectors when drawn in from the south are much warmer than they used to be . We have so far this season in the western alps experienced abundant precipitation, heavy snow and cold followed by tropical rain and then repeat .
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
The problem is and has been all this season the warm air sectors when drawn in from the south are much warmer than they used to be . We have so far this season in the western alps experienced abundant precipitation, heavy snow and cold followed by tropical rain and then repeat . |
The story of the season so far. Go high or go home!
Jan (after the spike in the 3rd) does look more promising for cold temps though. Fingers crossed!
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Thanks for the updates, fingers crossed it will drop a couple of degrees over the next few days.
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You know it makes sense.
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| pmercer wrote: |
| Thanks for the updates, fingers crossed it will drop a couple of degrees over the next few days. |
Looking a bit further north (PdS) Tuesday does look a bit horrid but the 1500m temp on the ensembles doesn’t look as warm as the deluge in December - maybe 4-5º, so snowline 17-1800m? So there could be a useful fall above that level, some damage below, but then looking a lot colder (as January often is) from 5/1 onwards. Bergfex has the snowline at about 15-1600m on Tuesday, MeteoFrance 16-1700m.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Yes with the weather fronts coming in from the west, French resorts are going to get more rain in the lower altitudes than further east.
Although that rain should be followed by snow shortly afterwards fingers crossed
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Poster: A snowHead
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@BobinCH, the story of this season and future seasons most probably. They'll be good periods but very different to book holidays in advance in places like Morzine and Les Gets with any confidence now.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Can I offer a word of caution when looking at the longer term (beyond 5 days) forecasts. In my experience of more than 40 years of looking at models, there is a tendency for them to be too cold in the longer term. There are several possible reasons for this, but they do tend to hint at blocking situations too readily and even when these occur, the models are often too cold from about 3 days onward. It is also my experience that blocking situations in winter occur less frequently than they used to. This may be down to climate change or just natural variability. In the post just above, the deterministic run and the ensembles are broadly consistent until 5 Jan, after which they deviate considerably, suggesting reduced confidence in the forecast. It is probable that there will be a downward trend in temperature as it has recently been warmer than normal, but there is much variability in the amount of new snow and the freezing level beyond day 5. There are some indications of a so-called stratospheric warming in early to mid January, and this can lead to a blocked pattern and cold weather over Europe. I'm off to Zurs on 27 Jan, so will be looking at the forecast even more than normally!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Onelasttime1!, thanks - I think a weatherman once said that forecast accuracy drops by about 10% per day, so anything 5+ days out is a bit of a lottery, even more so in the mountains!
Can I just ask what is meant by a “blocking situation”? Obviously (well I assume) it’s something that stops weather systems (lows?) crossing an area - is it high pressure that does that?
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
@Onelasttime1!, thanks - I think a weatherman once said that forecast accuracy drops by about 10% per day, so anything 5+ days out is a bit of a lottery, even more so in the mountains!
Can I just ask what is meant by a “blocking situation”? Obviously (well I assume) it’s something that stops weather systems (lows?) crossing an area - is it high pressure that does that? |
The jet stream normally flows from west to east around the northern hemisphere in a wave like pattern - imagine shaking a rope and seeing the wave-like pattern. These waves determine the position and development of lows and highs. In a normal pattern over the North Atlantic, the lows tend form off the coast of USA and end up somewhere near Iceland or Northern Scotland. When the pattern is blocked, the jet stream is more south to north or vice-versa, creating an omega shaped pattern and the lows and highs will be displaced to the north or south. One of the more well known blocked patters is the Scandinavian high pressure which can result in cold weather over the UK and Central Europe, much like the 'beast-from-the -east' in Feb/March of 2018. See the Met Office explanation of blocking at this link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/how-weather-works/high-and-low-pressure/blocks
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 29-12-23 13:51; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks @Onelasttime1! - really helpful!
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For the NW Alps, currently looks like areas above... hmm... 1600m will see a net gain over the next week. But a net loss below. Happy days for Flaine / Avoriaz, bad news for Morillon / Morzine etc.
Further south in the French Alps the break even point would be few hundred metres higher. So, good for Alpe d'Huez, problematic for the Vercors resorts etc.
Further east towards eastern Switzerland and Austria, a few hundred metres lower, as is usually the case. And also less precipitation, so unlikely to be too damaging for most ski areas here.
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
The jet stream normally flows from east to west around the northern hemisphere in a wave like pattern - imagine shaking a rope and seeing the wave-like pattern. |
I think you’ve got hold of the wrong end of the rope!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Wildsmith wrote: |
| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
The jet stream normally flows from east to west around the northern hemisphere in a wave like pattern - imagine shaking a rope and seeing the wave-like pattern. |
I think you’ve got hold of the wrong end of the rope! |
Od dear - my error. Haven't even had a drink yet!
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Blocking high doing a fine job in the Northern French Alps. 1025 mb. Flurry of sleety snow at 1600m this morning then the high reasserted itself and it's sunny now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Onelasttime1!, but that's how the daily mail, express etc sell newspapers with snowmaggedon forecasts 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Onelasttime! I don’t deny your 40 years experience following the models - I certainly haven’t been following that long. But I’m sure the models have developed over that time (and continue to develop) to become more accurate for longer periods. Of course they will always become less certain the further they look out into the future.
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| philhitch wrote: |
| @Onelasttime! I don’t deny your 40 years experience following the models - I certainly haven’t been following that long. But I’m sure the models have developed over that time (and continue to develop) to become more accurate for longer periods. Of course they will always become less certain the further they look out into the future. |
You are right of course that the models have improved remarkably over the years, as has the availability of data, especially from satellites, and ever more powerful supercomputers. However there are still deficiencies in the models and a shortage of data. The various models have differences in the way they analyse the data, how they solve the equations of motion and deal with thermodynamic process, and other physical processes that occur between the atmosphere, land and oceans. For these reasons, the various models come up with different solutions based on the same initial data, sometimes at relatively short lead times. No doubt the accuracy of forecasts will continue to improve as we make further advances in all aspects of data analyses and numerical weather prediction.
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You know it makes sense.
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@philhitch, I think OLT is a recently retired met office meteorologist so will probably be aware of recent developments.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @philhitch, I think OLT is a recently retired met office meteorologist so will probably be aware of recent developments. |
if only it was 'recently'!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Onelasttime1! wrote: |
| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @philhitch, I think OLT is a recently retired met office meteorologist so will probably be aware of recent developments. |
if only it was 'recently'! |
Ah, well if you’d said that - over the hill, out of date and past it! 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Austria looking good from next Saturday, in terms of ‘winter temperatures’ and snow?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Snow&skifan wrote: |
| Austria looking good from next Saturday, in terms of ‘winter temperatures’ and snow? |
Temps looking good for Austria into Jan, I’m no expert but I can’t see much in the way of precipitation, few little nibbles but nothing major, let’s hope things change
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Am I detecting a slight lowering of the freezing level on Tuesday? Interestingly I was looking at the Accuweather app that has the weather for the same day a year ago - Tuesday is forecast to be a 0º high in Avoriaz - last year it was 16º with a low of 8º. So could be a lot worse!
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@andy from embsay,  yeah, well last year definitely was a lot worse!
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| Am I detecting a slight lowering of the freezing level on Tuesday? Interestingly I was looking at the Accuweather app that has the weather for the same day a year ago - Tuesday is forecast to be a 0º high in Avoriaz - last year it was 16º with a low of 8º. So could be a lot worse! |
You’re right @andy from embsay - Bergfex are also scaling back on precipitation levels which I’m not quite convinced about. What has been consistent across the last few runs (and I know it’s a few days out) is the cooling trend from the middle of next week.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@franga, a 100 drop in snowline makes a big difference to us, as it can mean a freshen up on the run back to Super Morzine.
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| andy from embsay wrote: |
| @franga, a 100 drop in snowline makes a big difference to us, as it can mean a freshen up on the run back to Super Morzine. |
Exactly - a friend of mine has just sent me a gorgeous picture from circa 1,500 metres in the PdS. The start of this season is incomparable to last year’s misery.
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