 Poster: A snowHead
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@BRi87, there is some snow forecast this coming weekend and the temperatures are likely to be a good deal cooler next week. Should be Ok for the snow cannons if nothing else.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Re-upping Page one, Post one.
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
http://youtube.com/v/kUg7OO1gZk0
Hot, hot, hot. Tabloids talking about 40C next week in Austria.
Time to relax by the pool and try to remember quite how much snow was tumbling down across Austria last January (clue: a lot times a lot).
Hard to imagine right now.
But first...
I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.
Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.
Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.
nozawaonsen wrote:
"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously."
To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.
And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).
And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats). So those guys promising you it’s all so easy? Well. It isn’t. Wasn’t last year, won’t be next year.
Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.
But there’s going to be skiing to ski come autumn and winter and right now that feels like good odds.
As ever some thoughts on ENSO to follow...
Good to see you all again! |
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looks to be some potentially disruptive weather around in the Alps next 5 days ?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Global warming is back.
It's a disaster for the lower trails.
Not even freezing at night in Chamonix at the moment. |
Horror, end of Winter! Or maybe not....
Xmas week powder fest incoming! And we’re in Scotland 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@BobinCH, what website is the screenshot from?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@BobinCH, for the less regular visitors to this site you should probably state where the charts you post are for (i.e Verbier and ?mid mountain). Otherwise @BRi87 might think that was the forecast for Scotland! 
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@BobinCH, all 5 Scottish ski areas are open!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I’m hoping @BobinCH, will bring us a white Christmas
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Snowfall out to Saturday night.
Some very strong Föhn wind about this evening into tomorrow.
“In der Nacht zum Freitag dann auch im Rheintal stürmische Windböen. Den Höhepunkt erwarten wir Freitag Mittag bei 60-100 km/h im Rheintal und >120 km/h in den Föhn-Hotspots (Brandnertal / Liechtensteiner Oberland, Schweizer Rheinseite)sowie in Gipfellagen!” Wettering Vorarlberg.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Its 18 degrees in Feldkirch (in the Rhine valley) so still a big Föhn blowing. Reports from the Arlberg say its mild and windy there too. The snow in the lead up to Christmas seems very much focused on the Western alps, could well be more of a "green" christmas for more easterly places.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Was 11 degrees in oberlech at lunchtime, dropped to 8 now! Wind not so bad around Lech, but very strong in Warth.
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13 degrees in the Chamonix valley just now, fine sunshine, but clouds building on the high summits.
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You know it makes sense.
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@munich_irish, the east is going to get hammered from monday, getting much colder too if ECM is right about NE flow....big change coming
Here's UKMO, but all models agree that low pressure is sliding east next week
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@polo, not sure the definition of "hammered". Wepowder's algorithm is suggesting 13cm for Niederau, 28cm for Saalbach, 27cm for Wagrain mid stations over the next 6 days, snow forecast even less. Other places all suggesting dustings of wet snow are likely to be the order of the day prior to Christmas. I realise that most places use the same model (ECM??) and it could be wrong. The western alps are a different matter, I have seen suggestions of over 2m mid station in Tignes plus lots of other large numbers. A reversal of the snowmaggedon event last January where Austria was completely snowed under and much of France had very little?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| I realise that most places use the same model (ECM??) and it could be wrong. |
I think you mean GFS.
This is what ECM is showing.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ok I might be getting carried away...wouldn't worry about specific numbers, eg Wepowder currently showing 7cm for Morzine at 1350m, it's wrong.
The synoptic pattern is more relevant I think, with the east benefitting from a longer spell of low pressure next week, and with heights rising near UK, east europe could draw in a cold feed from E/NE.
Nothing will compare to last Jan in Austria. But like then, Haute Savoie was good enough with 20-30cm, so you don't need 2+meters in a few days. A lot of high resorts will have lift, access and avalanche issues.
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@polo, maybe you are right but it also seems possible that the eastern alps are in for mild (not as warm as the current Föhn conditions) but generally dry weather in the period up to new year. I realise that forecasting amounts of snow for a specific place and height is pretty dubious but looked at overall it does give an general picture, which in the next few days suggests heavy snow in parts of the western alps and much less snow further east.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@munich irish sure, pretty much anything is possible for the last week of the year, very mixed outlook, depends how far west that big ridge sets up....looks like a pacific driven burst of amplification will disturb the recent westerly flow
GFS 12z shows the temp/FL differences as an example, albeit 10 days away
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@munich_irish, you seem to be taking a rather gloomy and negative outlook? Any particular reason why?
Arlberg
Run up to Christmas below average temperatures, above average snowfall. After Christmas to New Year, average for time of year albeit no snow at present.
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A bit further east at Saalbach, 60+cm forecast by ECM and 85cm by GFS from 21st to the 26th.
Snow line on Bergfex around 800-900m for most of it.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@munich_irish, looks snowy to me.
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, if you think I am gloomy, Stanton is forecasting rain in the Arlberg on Monday 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@munich_irish, long since decided he was not worth paying any attention to.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@ster, Reminds me of a t-shirt I saw once "When Hell Freezes Over, I'll Ski There Too"
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Problematic snowfalls and wind speeds for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday in the northern French alps.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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France, Italy and Switzerland are gonna be carnage.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, I'm a bit confused - your screenshots of the GFS 12Z are different from the ones I am getting on Wetterzentrale, for the same run, location and axes.
For example, your graph for Chamonix shows 850hPa temperatures consistently at average or below (indeed, mostly below) from 21st Dec onwards. Whereas the one I'm looking at (link: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=45855&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= generally seems a couple of degrees warmer (e.g. above average temps on Dec 26th-28th). Any idea why there's a discrepancy?
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Strong winds in French Alps... (Meteo Alpes).
TEMPÊTE CE MATIN avec, entre autres :
- 153 km/h à la point de la Masse- Les Menuires 2800m
- 145 km/h à Lans en Vercors -les Allière 1449m
- 144 km/h à Villard de Lans 1042m
- 120 km/h à Bourgoin 358 m
- 113 km/h à l'aéroport de Grenoble Saint Geoirs
- 106 km/h à Val-Thorens 2280m
- 103 km/h à Saint Laurent du Pont 410m
- 91 km/h aux Saisies 163m
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@nozawaonsen, per whoever gets the weather for Radio Mont Blanc apparently the pressure difference across the massif is screwing up the Tunnel’s ventilation system ...
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Thank you Santa! Bring the sun cream...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, heard that from @davidof, that it was windy where he was yesterday.
Not too sure if those figs you quoted were for yesterday or today?
But just goes to show how the Lautaret is such a natural barrier as I was cross country skiing with no breeze at all yesterday.
Different story today, 2.6 degrees and heavy rain, can't see up the hill as to where the snowline is, and looks 20-25kph.
Pretty grim, suppose it's like an average day in Morzine 
Going up the hill shortly to suss a couple of places out for Xmas morning, a good test for the hard shells, goggles etc
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@Weathercam, wind speeds from overnight into this morning I believe.
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FAQ
Lots to play with for those folk who battle through the strikes in France though 
