 Poster: A snowHead
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@kitenski,
Yes spot on , I’m actually touring from next Tuesday , week tomorrow , just at the same time the weather starts to breaks down at the moment that is .
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Bizarre to open Wepowder and see not a flake forecast. Literally only two resorts come up in the fresh snow forecast section, with 3 and 2 cm respectively.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Rob Mackley, ah! well enjoy 
I'm off to the Arlberg for Easter, lets hope we get some new snow! GFS looks promising but too far out at the moment.....
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Bizarre to open Wepowder and see not a flake forecast. Literally only two resorts come up in the fresh snow forecast section, with 3 and 2 cm respectively. |
Looks like the Pyrenees might be getting a few cms this week but it's looking all a bit dry for the alps! Fingers crossed that that the ray of hope mentioned by BobinCH comes good.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@BobinCH, maybe more of a mirage  though the current weather pattern will end at some point
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Let's hope for a change. Back to weather watching for the next two weeks. We head out to les deux alpes on 9th April
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One of the wheels is coming loose with GEM Op sliding everything east, but other models haven't changed much.
Found a new toy today, ECM squiggles!
Hasn't got all the options that GFS version allows, such as FL, but nice to see precipitation included. It has 50 ensemble members (GFS has 30), plus an Op, Control and mean.
This for Avoriaz....doesn't look particularly cold yet as it's too far south, I'd guess a FL between 1600 and 2200m, but that kind of detail is not reliable 8-10 days out.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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It’s now coming into the YR 10 day outlook. April is the new February?
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I often wondered if YR.NO adjusts the raw ECM numbers. When I look at latest YR for Avoriaz for Wed 30th it says max -2c, min -10c (at 1800m) but the 00z raw ECM data above shows the Op (black line) barely reaches zero at it's lowest point at 1500m (850hpa) on 30th. Unlikely to be 10 degrees difference over 300m....so they must be making adjustments, don't see how else they get such low min's, maybe they are using higher definition / resolution for data input that we don't see on raw ECM.
Neither likely to be right at that range tho.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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That would be epic. Although I might have to make a last minute dash to buy winter tyres
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@FrediKanoute, that wetterzentrale link is great...has ensemble data for other models and multi model
But the ventusky link is also using GFS data (bottom left corner)....but just showing the GFS Op run, whereas wetterzentral you are looking at 30+ ensemble spikes, while the Op is showing very little (thick green line)
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You know it makes sense.
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In case anyone doesn't know what Op and ensembles are.....the Op means Operational, which is the main run for each model, ie run at the highest resolution. Then you have 30-50 (depending on model) iterations of the main run, where they adjust raw inputs slightly, these runs make up the ensembles. So it's an age old question, which is more reliable at say 8 days out, the higher resolution single Op run, or the average of 30+ slightly adjusted runs.
I'm always in the average camp, believing the ensemble mean to have more predictive value than a single (albeit more accurate) Op run, especially in the 8-14 day range.
Anyway, GFS 06z Op run is in line with averages (above) for the 31st, northerly flow into northern europe, westerly into the alps....as the low crosses over it's going to briefly bring a NW component, quickly followed by SW airmass (2nd-4th april). So if it all pans out like that, you're going to have to be quick to catch the cold snow. Altitude would still get snow, but not the best snow.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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On the basis of this sensational news, I've booked Tignes 9/4 for a week.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| polo wrote: |
In case anyone doesn't know what Op and ensembles are.....the Op means Operational, which is the main run for each model, ie run at the highest resolution. Then you have 30-50 (depending on model) iterations of the main run, where they adjust raw inputs slightly, these runs make up the ensembles. So it's an age old question, which is more reliable at say 8 days out, the higher resolution single Op run, or the average of 30+ slightly adjusted runs.
I'm always in the average camp, believing the ensemble mean to have more predictive value than a single (albeit more accurate) Op run, especially in the 8-14 day range.
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Thanks this is really useful! No matter how many times I get told, it still always bamboozles me!
I've got everything crossed for just one more dump before our trip on the 9th, just to freshen the slopes up a bit.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@up4it, views not news.... apr 9th is way beyond the range of these models, but it does look like a change is coming at month end from current dry and warm spell
ECM 12z looks great for April fools....9 days away, so expectations of it verifying are pretty low.....but the general pattern is what I expect to see, atlantic high pressure ridging up towards iceland / greenland, N-NW flow crossing alps, ahead of another warm up
We've seen this pattern get swept east several times this winter when a strong strat polar vortex was whirling above. Now that the strat has completely unwound it's spin, there may be less eastward drift in the short range models.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Cold smoke 1st to 4th? Wax up those powder skis…
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@mountainaddict, it does look like change is coming, not unusual for Easter in both Scotland and Europe! Also off to Austria but on the 10th so still too far away to be getting excited!
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Do you guys think that the model above will stretch down to La Thuile / Le Ros area?
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cheers - I'm off on the 3rd so slightly earlier than you guys and prob more exited
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I presume there isn't anything on note due to hit Savoie in the next 10 days. 
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@Mosha Marc, There seems to be a change in the weather set up that has dominated the Alps for several weeks next week and this time next week the Savoie might see some new snow , it even might be quite cold for the season towards the end of next week , not sure as I’m going next week that I’d like to see the end of the Sun and a return to cold , damp and gloomy with differing snow.rain levels . We shall see .
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Forecasts for middle/late next week starting to look great; 50cm of new snow in Obergurgl Weds>Friday, and temps down to nearly -20C on the mountain
https://www.bergfex.com/obergurgl-hochgurgl/wetter/berg/
Guess who is arriving on the Saturday
I know it's a way off, but fingers crossed, and the general consensus is that the weather IS finally changing
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You know it makes sense.
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Alps certainly need some snow. What there is, is holding up well, however last few days it has been really hot and very slushy down below 1800m
It’s over 20c in Vallandry today.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Thanks @polo, great update!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks, for those of us who struggle with abbreviations like GFS and ECM it does seem that some snow and lower temperatures might actually be on the way. Perhaps our booked April flights will after all get us on the snow!
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@polo, I know what I would would like but my gut is telling me the current GFS will be closer than the others it’s just the way the whole season has gone , especially when I in the Alps which will be the next two weeks , let’s hope my feel is wrong .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
| Nightmare for any overly enthusiastic farmers / gardeners....I have pumpkin and courgette that need to get outside before they take over the living room |
I suspect you'll not be getting much sympathy for that on here! Here's to them taking over the house 
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Am gonna need bigger pots....some Op runs suggesting this could be a prolonged Janvril episode, all bets are off beyond next weekend
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| polo wrote: |
| Am gonna need bigger pots....some Op runs suggesting this could be a prolonged Janvril episode, all bets are off beyond next weekend |
Hoping it all clears up from about next Saturday - don’t mind cold… at least Innsbruck shouldn’t be hit by snow so airport should be ok… never not been able to land yet
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FAQ
...the lot! - ahead of our Austria trip on 6th April.
...they seem to rely too heavily on GFS to form an outlook. It's one model out of 6 that are useful in my view.
