The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

@sbooker, much too early to tell. Beyond two weeks is pretty much guesswork; even beyond a week isn't much better.

General outlook is fairly settled / mostly dry though at the moment.

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

@sbooker, you've got plenty of snow over that side of the Alpine ridge already wink

I think my similar request for Italy should take precedence (guess where I'm going).

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It’s all coming to an end soon. 6 weeks is about as long as a pattern will last (no science was used here) so time is up on the +NAO / AO.

Am traveling this week so hard to see charts on phone but looks like some strat warming / PV slow down.

500mb Charts are showing highs pushing north (HLB) so the cold should enter from the east and then maybe snow from the north.

Feb has been great for many, but March showing potential for something colder

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Wonderful views of snowy mountains on the journey into work this morning, from Salzburg to the Zugspitz. Looking forward to a cold and mostly sunny weekend's skiing after a bit of a top up over the next 24 hours Very Happy

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@polo , You could be on to something there, from the 4th March the GFS forecast is showing a high settling over Norway with a colder air mass coming in from the East settling over central Europe. Caveat of course is that its a long way out and hence unreliable, but it suits me as I am heading to St Anton on the 11th Laughing

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It does look as if there might be a change on the way, both GFS & ECM seem to be pointing towards a change at the end of next week. Doesnt seem to indicate any great amount of snow for the alps (though ECM suggest a good bit next week GFS not) but it might mean less rain for flooded parts of the UK.

After all it is free

Has Putin set off his evil global warming raygun for mid-march?

@RetroBod, mid march a bit far to call.....first 10 days look to hover around average temps, or lower, depending where you are in the alps

Let's start at the top.....up in the strat, a big slow down in winds now forecast, from over 60 m/s to under 20 m/s....red line is the GFS Op forecast (and is supported by mean / ensembles)

AO index also dropping from +3 to 0 this week as high pressure anomalies build over northern lattitudes.....not clear where it goes beyond that, but clearly leaning more +ve than -ve at the moment

This is how it looks on the ECM mean 500mb anomaly chart for March 7th......high pressure to the north, with a cool NE flow towards central europe

A lot of movement (uncertainty) on the various Op runs....some charts have shown brief northerly into eastern europe, others show a weak undercut scenario with low pressure cutting back further west.
Snow wise we've seen GFS go from zero, to 30cm to zero, to 5cm etc in my area....so any forecast would be low confidence for another few days until we see more consistency-

ICON 12z just out is decent Blue

UKMO 00z not so interesting Going green

....couldn't find a barfing emoji

Need another day or two to see which way this will go

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Good progress on the 12z....all models now showing N to NE flow into eastern end on 7th, with low pressure extending to the west and the southern alps....has potential to last 2-3 days.
Low's actually start to form in the east by Friday.

ECM Op 7th

GFS Op to wed 9th, a nice cold top up showing for now

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@polo, not going to pretend to understand it all but I have appreciated your expert explanation of the flip-flopping I have seen over the last 10 days as we approach t-12. My concern was it had begun to flop rather than FLIP!! I should know, having obsessed before every holiday since discovering snowHead

, there is no reliability past 7 days; but I just cant help it!! Fingers crossed for newxt week.

snow reports

It's all relative, you can have some reliability beyond 7 days (general pattern), and you can have a significant lack of reliability within 3 days (snowfall in x resort).
If people are interested in any of the technical jargon / concepts just ask for a specific explanation.....maybe Page 1 / stickie should include a list of terms with basic explanations etc.... but most weather posters on here tend to use the same terms (NAO, blocking), without going too far down the rabbit hole.

Right now, looking far into the unknown, you'd have to say it will warm up beyond the 9th for central europe....could be dry, could be wet....but no one should worry about that, because a) its going to get cold and snowy first, and b) it's guaranteed to change beyond that day 8-10 window, for resort x

Re. flip flopping....something I've emphasised for years is that you can have confidence in big picture based on synoptic shape of mean anomalies, some background factors, experience and watching the various Op runs, ensembles.
So when you have a certain level of confidence built, you can worry less about rogue Op runs....and each model will produce them....but as long as one or two are still clinging to the original idea (vague concept) you can remain optimistic and just wait for consensus to form....like today. Still might go horribly wrong, but that's the process I use.

I appreciate this might not make much sense to some readers.....so fire away with any questions....worst case no one answers wink

I'm terrible at reading these graphs... anyone care to explain in layman's terms what I could be expecting in the Kaiser Brixental (Skiwelt) region next week? Think Soll, Ellmau etc. TIA!

You know it makes sense.

Everything shifting east again on the 00z, looks like the projected scandi high is sinking as usual.....should have remembered the models seem to over-estimate it's northerly position at least 9 times out of 10.

Still looking chilly 4-10th, but the only new snow might be artificial in many places.

Easiest way to interpret the pressure graphs is that anywhere coloured blue has a chance of fresh snow, the darker the colours the better (lower pressure). Then you'd look at the number of isobars (white lines)....the tighter they are the more chance of stormy conditions. It's a very simplistic read though, because you can get snow under higher pressure (green) and under slack conditions....a lot depends on where the fronts are coming from, ie NW more potent than NE.

Here's UKMO 00z, compared to yesterdays ECM, you can see the eastward shift in the pattern....the area of greens and yellows is more bloated and any undercutting flow from the east is much more slack.

Also visible on updated GFS snow chart

So central and eastern Austria still a good chance of modest top up.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Anyone know any good weather sites for northern Norway/Finland area?

A snowHead

Hi all!

In summary, my doubt is: are there currently any models that give us any oversight on what to expect for March in Switzerland, particularly around Arosa? (I know no long-term forecast is very reliable, but still)

Here's my situation: I'm planning on going to Switzerland from March 25th to April 3rd, but the resorts in which we managed to find the best deals are not really high: Arosa/Lenzerheide, Crans Montana and Engelberg. In fact, out of those 3, in principle Arosa would be our favourite choice (bigger, cheaper than Engelberg and sounds nicer overall).
But I'm a little scared the snow may no longer be that good around that time.
Also, today I heard from a colleague that, according to some models, March is expected to be relatively dry and warm here in the Netherlands (which was celebrated by the colleagues who heard it, but for a snowhead those words hurt deeply hahah). So I was wondering if anyone is aware of such long-term reports for Switzerland too.

And yes, I know Engelberg is probably more snow-sure, but it's also considerably smaller, in this case pricier, and also I've already been there (not that I'd mind going again of course, but still). For the rest I have looked into literally every Swiss resort above 2800m (I have a spreadsheet to prove it) but these really seem to be the best deals among the larger resorts (maybe Andermatt too, but it's also not so large nor so high).

Many thanks!

A snowHead

@Gustavo the Gaper I have taken the liberty of starting a new thread to preclude any off topic shenanigans in this zone of sancrosanctity Blush

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@Little Martin, yr.no is a decent place to start. I don't have any mountain specific sites but that one tends to be fairly accurate in my experience.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

@mgrolf, thanks will check that site

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More generally, how far ahead are forecasts moderately reliable - for guessing whether there will be OK snow in April other than at the highest resorts?

The experts here haven't offered much optimism for much snow falling over the next couple of weeks, which makes us reluctant to commit at this point.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

Slight dip in recent correlation / accuracy, and am not sure what scale these numbers are for (5km, 50km?)....but still around 60% accurate at day 7 for europe.

I've shown many examples where day 8-10 anomalies can be close to the mark, as in the position of large blocks / troughs, but doesn't mean a lot for predicting snow quantities at a resort level.

Short term most snow seems to be heading towards Croatia, very southerly jet, so southern alps should get some too.

The Scandi high saga rolls on....the strat vortex is split in two, with zonal winds collapsing over next few days from record territory (60+) to almost zero...very nearly a technical SSW.

All of this ensures heightened model chaos, but there is still some consensus for a proper undercut back to the west.....ie low pressure from east joining low pressure from west, with the Scandi high floating above

ECM mean for thurs 10th

Looking at GFS for NW alps, there's a lot of precipitation coming from the atlantic side mid march, but at the moment it's bringing SW mild air, so quite a high snowline.

More flip flopping ahead as you'd expect with this pattern / background....wouldn't make any rash decisions

Thanks @telford_mike, it's what I feared.

Our daughter has university term running well into April (and medicine, so miss anything and you spend weeks trying to make it up). She loves her skiing, but it would have to be a last minute decision only if the snow is worthwhile.

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From those with more knowledge than me, any comments versus current GFS? Needless to say this shows Sahara like conditions regarding precipitation.

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@twoodwar, here's my understanding:

The next 7 days are looking cool with easterly winds. Fairly dry, but a little snow for the far NE Alps, the fringes of the Italian Alps (i.e. the bits close to the flatlands), and to the far southern French / Italian Alps (i.e. close to Nice).

From Friday 11th, some GFS runs have been indicating a change to a milder and moister southwesterly flow, which would favour France but Italy could benefit too depending on the exact direction - though in both cases, could be some rain lower down. Other GFS runs have continued with the easterly flow however, or gone for a hybrid of the two.

To sum up: really uncertain after the 10th.

Your map above mostly only covers the period before this point. I'm not sure what model it is derived from.

snow reports

Richard_Sideways posted elsewhere who says from the ‘Windy’ app. ECMWF, GFS, and Icon. - think that’s right. Multiple sources.

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

For those inclined to debate which model is better than the others all can be seen and compared here. For what it worth they are all saying much the same thing with lingering high pressure over Scandinavia, which means colder dry weather for central Europe / northern alps and maybe some precipitation for Italy / southern alps. pretty much as @polo, says above.

A snowHead

Uncertain is weather forecasting’s middle name. Frequently the bbc forecast gives 10% chance of rain, and it pours in Liverpool. More than 1 chance in 10 I think!
@GreenDay, I do understand the point. GFS was stating no snow at all and the ‘windy’ forecast was saying snow. Just trying to get a feel for why someone could possibly forecast more snow than GFS, and therefore ‘snow forecast’!

A snowHead

I know anything outside of three days is pretty unreliable.. But going to Morzine on 17th and most websites seem to be saying they are expecting highs of 14°C at 900m with freezing level at over 3000m! Any knowledge of heatwaves/milder air being pushed through? Might have to pack a mountain bike at this rate Eh oh!

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@winterstickboarder, the 17th is a long way away but the general thought at the moment is dry spring weather for the next 10 days or so, getting milder. Not many snowflakes in sight. A bike might be useful Sad

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@winterstickboarder, mild days are not that unusual in mid / late March. It's not a big problem as long as it is accompanied by dry air, as the pistes tend to refreeze as the temperature drops overnight.

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Windy.com forecasting a cold period and a non trivial amount of snow for the Pyrenees in the next 10 days. Could be time for a trip back to Baqueira.

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Can see the mid month warm up on these two charts, first one from 3 days ago, second one is today

But with cold air in place from the east, the mild SW flow incoming next weekend might not carry the freeze line too high....hopefully not much above 1600m in the NW alps.

GFS freeze levels Sunday lunch

Models are split on how far west this low will disrupt, and how far south it sinks....so another very borderline situation as to how far east the precipitation will reach......could easily be zero cm's, but a few models have it reaching the western end of the alps for 10-20cm.

Nice to see a little high pressure amplification returning to the atlantic as well....that can only help the odds of nudging the flow a little closer to the alps. Straws clutched as it's likely to join up with the scandi high soon after.

Pyrenees favoured right now....possibly seeing snow from the NW and then the south later

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UKMO total precip to Monday

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/gbr/france/accumulated-precipitation/20220314-1800z.html

GFS, ECM, ICON aren't showing much reaching western alps, but as long as a few other models are there remains a chance. Precip seems to be heading largely SE, so southern alps could do well, maybe SW alps though will be best for a change.
Three models showing over 3m between Toulouse and Marseille.

After all it is free

Note the hole in the Tarentaise , Haute Savoie and the Northern Alps in Switzerland wind/foehn from the SW , in the Tarentaise where I’m sometimes nothing falls from the sky when the Foehn is on .

Line from the Chamonix Meteo forecast this morning

That foehn pattern might then persist about a week long, thus melting to none remaining snow patches down in the valley.

@polo, hope that’s correct. 40mm for Cervinia is better than gfs is giving me at the moment

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yep GFS is dandruff

Continues to look like the low will be too far west this time, which makes a refreshingly pointless change from too far east. Unless you are skiing the pyrennes / massif centrale.
A cut off low over Iberia on the 06z lasting for almost a week would indeed bring the hairdryer to low lying alpine villages.

Am still clinging to the idea of false positives this weekend, as from an abstract point of view all forecasts are wrong anyway but something is better than nothing.

Help!!

The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

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