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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@antipotato, cheers works now
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
BobinCH wrote:
Wigglies

Shocked
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Any update for the French alps, specifically around the Tarentaise (Val/ste Foy)?
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@dannyboy23,
The situation has improved if you were looking for some new snow as the forecast a couple of days ago was for sun, sun , sun but has in the last 24 hours changed .
It’s going to snow a little friday night and then again with possibly a little more on Sunday night , further out looks like some cold snow Friday/Saturday next week in time for half term week that I have my eye on , however it’s quite far out so can change . Keep any eye on the Tignes thread as chocksaway posts very good updates on that thread .

Personally I will be in Sainte Foy from the 10th and whilst I’d like some new snow on a few days I don’t want too much as with the station full we want as much of the mountain open , when I was there last week the depths were quite good and all that was needed was a few 25cm falls to Freashen up the OP .
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Thanks Rob, sounds great. I’d be happy with a top up and 7 days of sun Happy

We’ll be there on the 11th and honestly, we can’t wait!

Yeti isn’t far away.
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Snow for the 7th in Zermatt and Cervinia

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Weather forecast seems to have changed for the three valleys, bergfex now giving 20-25cm of snow on Monday for Meribel and seems across the board a snow event is expected, will it materialise though !

Currently in Courcheval and it was spring like yesterday.

To be honest I’m looking forward to some cold and snowy weather, bring it on.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Cov_lad, surprised to see that as well when I checked this morning.
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GFS 00z showing a pretty good spread across the northern side of the Alps this morning.



If previous experience is right some of you will be able to see this image. Some of you won’t. Exciting!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS 00z showing a pretty good spread across the northern side of the Alps this morning.



If previous experience is right some of you will be able to see this image. Some of you won’t. Exciting!


right click on img square & view image in new tab usually fixes it
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Dusting of new snow Sunday again for us in Passo it looks like before "tropical" temps and FL @3600 mtrs 2 days later. Real sea-saw of conditions.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Any chance of anything significant for the Dolomites before next weekend? Those tropical temps next week are getting me worried it will be frozen slush when I get there! Sad

The 06Z GFS is showing a snowbomb in N Italy for 11th/12th, is that a likely scenario?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Alpinebear wrote:
@Cov_lad, surprised to see that as well when I checked this morning.


A welcome surprise for sure, I’m sitting at le bouc blanc in La Tania right now you’d think it was April !
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
luigi wrote:
Any chance of anything significant for the Dolomites before next weekend? Those tropical temps next week are getting me worried it will be frozen slush when I get there! Sad

The 06Z GFS is showing a snowbomb in N Italy for 11th/12th, is that a likely scenario?


That's when the wider scatter starts so I would say it's not nailed on yet. But a good sign.



Rather cold either way.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hmm yes, the operational run is an outlier in terms of precip and temp. That would be a chilly blast around Valentines Day! Skullie
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Spike107 wrote:
Dusting of new snow Sunday again for us in Passo it looks like before "tropical" temps and FL @3600 mtrs 2 days later. Real sea-saw of conditions.


How has it been so far?
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Quote:
How has it been so far?
Somewhat better than last winter's lockdown I'll wager wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just seen this https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/intense-snow-northern-alps-norway-turkey-high-influencing-europe-rrc/ it is a few days old now and very correctly forecasted what actually happened, certainly as far as the alps were concerned. What is a little concerning, though perhaps not surprising, is the final few paragraphs suggesting that the current weather pattern could well continue for some time (weeks) but the high pressure area could drift further east, meaning dry conditions for the whole alpine region. I know any forecast longer than a few days has an element of mystic meg but the analysis seems a reasonable one. Fingers crossed that the mythical Amazonian butterfly intervenes and the current weather pattern gets disrupted.
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Heres‘s how the snowfall across the northern side of the Alps is looking (some spill over to the south).



331-FE319-57-CA-4-DB5-B7-C3-AF70953-C0607
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Windy tomorrow across the alps but then the anticyclone moves east bringing settled weather.
Northerly Britain remains in a strong Atlantic flow. That’s been quite rare over the last 13 months.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure/
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Yep, winds will be strong enough to shut some lifts tomorrow, and then really rather warm weather on 08/09 before temperature drops and possibly some light snow on 11 Feb.

That strong jet across the Atlantic



leaves open possibilities of further snow at some stage in FI depending, as the ensembles suggest, but not with an especially strong signal yet.
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Any comments on the jet stream buckling/Genoa Low setup for 11/12 Feb on the 00Z GFS?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
With the half terms about to commence next weekend nice little top up with sun in between please , no major storms shutting the mountain we need as much open as possible .
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luigi wrote:
Any comments on the jet stream buckling/Genoa Low setup for 11/12 Feb on the 00Z GFS?


My take on it: it's not supported by any of the other runs and is quite weak (in Alpine areas) in any case, so not worth taking seriously at this point.
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denfinella wrote:
luigi wrote:
Any comments on the jet stream buckling/Genoa Low setup for 11/12 Feb on the 00Z GFS?


My take on it: it's not supported by any of the other runs and is quite weak (in Alpine areas) in any case, so not worth taking seriously at this point.


Thanks, yes, it is weak, but repeated again on 06Z and I have seen the Low crop up a few times in recent days. I'm probably clutching at straws! snowHead
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@luigi, you are grasping at the thinnest of straws. Yes GFS does suggest a weak Genoa low around the 1tth though short-lived (ECM doesnt). Both suggest the general pattern of high pressure over Azores / southern Europe will continue for sometime. Potentially good for Scottish skiing much less so for the southern Alps.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
munich_irish wrote:
@luigi, you are grasping at the thinnest of straws. Yes GFS does suggest a weak Genoa low around the 1tth though short-lived (ECM doesnt). Both suggest the general pattern of high pressure over Azores / southern Europe will continue for sometime. Potentially good for Scottish skiing much less so for the southern Alps.


OK thanks, I'll be sure to pack my shades then!! Cool
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Semnoz, above Annecy. Just started snowing moderately heavily (1450m).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Here it comes…
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Raining heavily in Martigny Combe.
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Poster: A snowHead
BobinCH wrote:
Here it comes…


Is that snow or rain? rolling eyes
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Worth a read. https://www.slf.ch/en/2022/01/avalanche-risk-recalculated.html
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Don't you love this new invention... webcams...

Hosing down in Zell am See
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Can the weather gurus explain/give some insight into what is happening in the Alps right now? I am heading to Monterosa on Friday so SW Alps, and the forecast on snow-forecast.com is positively tropical for the week! Bit of a cold snap on Sat/Sun then temperatures up to 10 degrees and freezing levels of 3400m later in the week. I have to say that quite a few of our recent Feb trips have been similar with very warm weather, and we have pretty much always had better conditions in April. Feb used to be considered mid-winter with consistent low temps but times seems to have change. Usually ski in Switzerland (Val D'Anniviers/Saas Fee/Zermatt) so similar part of the alps.
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You can see how lively the 12z op is in FI for the north side of the Alps here. Obviously a bit far out, but a more unsettled spell from roughly 17 Feb has been cropping up in a few runs recently.

Arlberg

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.1&lon=10.3&ville=



Chamonix

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.9&lon=6.9



Meanwhile. Auto-Bob (but not inCH).


http://youtube.com/v/F_XyqpD1_O4
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Seems to be a band of snow crossing France Friday morning……. Still a long way out but would be a nice top up for half term
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Just what I didn’t want for half term looking like a rollercoaster of snow, possible rain and high and low temps , what was wrong with the sun and two top up snowfalls at the start and the middle .
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I might well be jumping the gun here, but the last few GFS runs have been a little more hopeful re. snow for the southern Alps. There's no single massive dump nailed on (far from it), but rather a few chances for snowfall over the next 10 days - so an increased chance that one may end up verifying. Some of these may just be spillover from the north / west, but something coming up from the Mediterranean isn't out of the question either.

I'm not getting too excited but it's worth watching. More hopeful than the last few weeks anyway...
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denfinella wrote:
I might well be jumping the gun here, but the last few GFS runs have been a little more hopeful re. snow for the southern Alps. There's no single massive dump nailed on (far from it), but rather a few chances for snowfall over the next 10 days - so an increased chance that one may end up verifying. Some of these may just be spillover from the north / west, but something coming up from the Mediterranean isn't out of the question either.

I'm not getting too excited but it's worth watching. More hopeful than the last few weeks anyway...


Fingers crossed for next week:


Both bumps have been showing for a few runs now, always a good sign.
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I'm struggling to find a model that is not predicting serious amounts of wet stuff of some description falling from the sky within the next 10 days.

e.g. ECMWF



To what extent are temperatures a concern?
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