phillip33, please do explain, I simply don't understand how your post relates to mine. All I was saying was that I appreciate nozawaonsen's ability to make a technical subject interesting to a numpty like me (and I don't suppose I'm the only numpty on here that doesn't altogether understand the technicalities.)
And, because I too am predictable, you might like to know that the word 'your' in your last post should be 'you're' - though that post is equally mystifying.
Then I owe you a apology I thought you were refering to me sorry, re pam w she,s always on my case,re spelling thank you
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, Can you point me in the direction of any maps for the current NAO/AO please. I've tried searching the Net, but obviously lack the right search parameters. I would be very interested in seeing how the meteorologists foresee the pattern developing over the next 3 or 4 weeks.
The current Met Office maps for surface pressure over Europe are indicating that the Continental High Pressure zone is still maintaining its position to the east of the classic Scandinavian High. This means we in the eastern Alps can see at least another week, if not longer, of this unseasonal extended period of warmth and southerly air flow. I've been out here for over 15 years and cannot remember such an extended period of Föhn situation and nor can my friends. Looking at our flying club logs there is no record that shows no flying at all for such a long period. We have two start sites, both of which are no go areas when the winds are from anywhere south of the starts. We have had long periods of Föhn but they are most often in the Spring, the Autumnal ones tend to be short sharp affairs with huge changes in pressure over a few days then a return to a more typical November packet of northerlies and low temperatures.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Samerberg Sue wrote:
nozawaonsen, Can you point me in the direction of any maps for the current NAO/AO please. I've tried searching the Net, but obviously lack the right search parameters. I would be very interested in seeing how the meteorologists foresee the pattern developing over the next 3 or 4 weeks.
The current Met Office maps for surface pressure over Europe are indicating that the Continental High Pressure zone is still maintaining its position to the east of the classic Scandinavian High. This means we in the eastern Alps can see at least another week, if not longer, of this unseasonal extended period of warmth and southerly air flow. I've been out here for over 15 years and cannot remember such an extended period of Föhn situation and nor can my friends. Looking at our flying club logs there is no record that shows no flying at all for such a long period. We have two start sites, both of which are no go areas when the winds are from anywhere south of the starts. We have had long periods of Föhn but they are most often in the Spring, the Autumnal ones tend to be short sharp affairs with huge changes in pressure over a few days then a return to a more typical November packet of northerlies and low temperatures.
I agree the current pattern does seem to be especially stubborn. Certainly mild temperatures seem set for at least the next week. There are though indications of a possible pattern shift from around mid month.
Compare:
06z +06 chart [Eastern Europe dominated by high pressure block]
06z +384 chart [High pressure stacked over Greenland, low pressure nearer Azores, ie -NAO, northerly pushing into Europe]
Obviously that's just one run and deep into far FI, but I use it to illustrate how this pattern change might occur. Anyway more this evening.
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nozawaonsen, It was actually maps or imaging that I was after. I seem to be able to relate to maps more easily than graphs, comes from having a pictorial rather than an abstract mathematical brain I suppose. I know there are graphics out there showing the current and project paths of both, but just do not seem to able to find them.
Thanks for the current links so far, I take a peek and see if they contain what I've been looking for.
Edited to remove a stupid auto correct and to add a a request for a link to polar projection maps for the Arctic Oscillation.
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phillip33, no worries. I didn't even notice your post, tbh.
And apologies from me too - I do try harder these days not to let my pedantry run away with me. I'm not yet in recovery though.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Pedantica,
Yes any more of that and I,ll send you ton the tinges "bash" with me for a week,that should be enough deterrent
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
phillip33,
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Ricklovesthepowder, in the short term (ie next seven days) no, none at all.
Sustained snow in the first half of November is relatively rare in the UK (though clearly the higher and further north you are more likely it is). Of course last year there was a sudden and harsh outbreak of winter very early in the season. The end of November and much of December was almost unprecedentedly cold. This was largely a result of very strong high pressure building over Greenland and forming a block (much like the high pressure block out in eastern Europe, which is currently causing rather different results).
Both these blocks have the result of halting the generally wet and relatively mild weather coming in from the west over the Atlantic. In the case of the block over Greenland this caused cold Arctic air to flow down from the north bringing deep cold with it. And showed as a very -NAO. A not dissimilar pattern occurred the winter before, but this was both less extreme and longer lasting and winter 2009/10 was therefore overall colder in the UK than last year, despite the very cold December we had in 2010.
The current block out east is proving very stubborn and has lead to a very mild start to November. For slightly different reason both the Alps and the UK are generally under the influence of very mild winds from the south at present. Although the cause is the same, the block in eastern Europe.
Were that block to move further north then we would have what is called a Scandinavian High (or Scandi High). This pulls cold air from Russia and beyond into Europe and the further we get into November and December the colder the source of air out east will be. Eventually in the right circumstances this can also reach the UK (although has to negotiate the North Sea which can disrupt the cold flow).
Another way the Eastern Block might go is if high pressure again builds over Greenland which would allow northern influences to push down and force it away. There are some suggestions in some of the model output that this might be on the cards later in the second half of November, but it is too soon to have any confidence in this.
What of long term models or forecasts? First thing to say is don't take them that seriously. Some have better foundations, but even where the science is good, there is currently no way to make accurate long term predictions for the weather. What is notable is that last winter it was possible during Autumn to see strong indications for just the type of northern blocking we ended up getting. This Autumn there has been no similar strong signal. Does that mean it won't happen? No. But it means there are no signs at this stage that it will. More generally much of the output I've been looking at seems to suggest a UK winter between average and cold, rather than very cold (again I wouldn't put too much faith in that either way and even then we are only talking about probabilities, so cannot rule out mild).
What has been heavily skewed is much of the UK media reporting which has latched onto one or two (one in particular) forecasts (not the Met Office it's worth saying) and has therefore given a stronger suggestion than I think is perhaps reasonable that we could have a very cold winter (that isn't to say we won't, just that I haven't seen much to convince of this at this stage).
There's a programme on BBC2 tonight called "Will It Snow?" which might be interesting (I'd be very surprised if they gave an answer incidentally).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Interesting...
Fairly dramatic pattern switch to high pressure building over Greenland and -NAO at pretty close range.
Here's UKMO at +144, which is as far they reach.
And here's ECM at +144.
Whether it verifies of course is still a question, but if it did it would open the path to moving the Eastern Block and allow cold to flow in. We'll see...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen, A big change in the wiggles from 12Z run today for the east of austria,
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1447_ens.png I think this approx Schladming though probably a little further east.
Showing a marked temp drop around the 13th though a few days later the control and main go in opposite directions. Not much precip.
Very mild around schladming last couple of days, I guess the hair dryer influence finally crept in.
I'm bored of the eastern high pressure now, please go away!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
When does it verify,and is it showing on the GFS , excuse my average punter eye ( Please Pedantica I,m not wishing to open old wounds ! ) Noza are there any other graphs etc that you look at? And could these maps be the first confirmation of the change that you first indicated maybe happening in the NAO / AO ?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen,
Noza you on the first post on this thread incorporated a cfs Enso graph I just looked at this and understood nothing apart from it seemed to be heading further into the minus territory ,what are the implications of this, sorry but I haven't worked out on this iPad how to cut and paste ( probably never will , or spell check as I desperately need)
In terms of confirmation, no, these are just indicators (there have already been a few in recent GFS FI charts, but this is the first time ECM and UKMO have got in on the act in the near term).
As far as validation, well I guess that happens at +0 or the present. And given these charts are some time in the future there is plenty that could change. For starters you would want to see this theme building over the next few days (not necessarily in every run, but you would by and large want to see the pattern getting stronger). You'd also want to avoid seeing the block out east simply reappearing after a few days.
But this evening's runs at least develop some options across all three major models which isn't bad. Let's see.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Still looks like a fair amount of snowfall above 2200m on the Swiss Italian border over the next couple of days, though diminishing as we go through tomorrow.
Elsewhere on the northern side of the Alps, particularly the east, temperatures look set to be mild for the time off the year for much of the coming week.
All three models continue to show high pressure building over Greenland, but GFS doesn't really allow much to happen with the block out east... and keeps it largely in place...
ECM on the other hand pours cold weather from the north (on this occasion it would bring cold to the eastern half of Austria, but the key would be the shifting of the block).
Whether it is just a diversion or the onset of more serious cold weather, we'll see... It'll be interesting to see either ECM or GFS have given any ground by the 12z runs this evening.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
Ricklovesthepowder,
There's a programme on BBC2 tonight called "Will It Snow?" which might be interesting (I'd be very surprised if they gave an answer incidentally).
Wasted an hour of my life watching "will it snow" last night. Load of waffle, repetative questions and no answers.
After all it is free
After all it is free
jirac18, Odd that, I watched and found it fascinating. But then I'm interested in and fascinated by the chaos behind weather forecasting. This was really the focus of the programme.
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Samerberg Sue, ah, another opinion. Might give it a go, if you thought it was fascinating. I'm interested in it all, too, after my very basic bits of learning about meteorology when I studied geography.
Maybe some people watched it, expecting to get an answer to the question "Will it snow?"
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pam w, that's kind of the point of asking a question is it not, to seek an answer. Yes I did expect at least a partial answer but the absence of one made me fall asleep twice (no I'm not narcaleptic) All they seemed to do was repeatedly ask the question over and over with Kate Humble babbling on and on.
I hope you get more from it than I did.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen,
Average punter here, the gps graphs are showing signs of moving in the right direction downwards also for what it's worth the Met office 16 to 30 day forecast indicates a return to more seasonal temps and rainfall for the uk, so maybe November could have something good to bring,who would have thought it!! Bloody amateurs out there
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
This evening's model output continues to suggest a move towards cooler temperatures from mid month, certainly at least to seasonal average, but GFS and ECM remain at odds over quite how events will evolve.
Still plenty to be sorted out.
In terms of the snowfall over the last weekend SLF have produced the following round up for Switzerland.
- 3 November to 7 November snowfall level lay between 2000 and 2500 m.
- As of this evening 2700m+,upper valleys of Maggia, 150 to 200 cm; from the Monte Rosa region over the Simplon region into northern Ticino, 100 to 150 cm; remaining Main Alpine Ridge from Great St. Bernard into the Bernina region, 40 to 60 cm.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
In terms of this morning's model output both ECM and GFS see the high pressure out east being pushed away by the end of their runs, but GFS takes a lot longer to get there. Still a long way from seeing real cold in the reliable range for the moment...
Incidentally and as it has been brought up elsewhere, this is just for fun, I'm no expert, don't take it seriously.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen, ignore the rabble on other threads - they come and go...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:
Incidentally and as it has been brought up elsewhere, this is just for fun, I'm no expert, don't take it seriously.
nozawaonsen, it's not a case of being an "expert" or not, is it? Just someone who has taken the time and made the effort needed to begin getting to grips with the different weather models and the phenomena behind them, and is prepared to take even more time to share that knowledge.
Some of us now understand a lot better - thanks to you and others who have done the same in the past, and generally got fed up with all the cr@p that gets chucked at them by people who haven't bothered to try to understand and just want to know, in words of one syllable, whether there will be nice snow for their holiday next month.
Keep up the good work.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w,
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
phillip33, maybe I'm not very good at picking up subtle nuances in forum posts, but I've not noticed any direct or implied critisism of yourself in this thread
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Meteo France have updated their seasonal forecast. As I have said several times before I'd take long range forecasts with a pinch of salt. Or to put it another way I wouldn't take them that seriously. I'm curious to see what they say, but wouldn't have much confidence in it.
"En France métropolitaine
En Métropole, les températures moyennes et les cumuls de précipitation devraient être inférieurs aux normales saisonnières. Toutefois la prévisibilité saisonnière y reste encore limitée."
So for mainland France average November, December and January temperature and precipitation over the three months lower than normal.
I for one have never taken you seriously as your never Right!, come to think of it you,re never Wrong either as you never commit to anything,it,s all if,s and maybe,s, seriously though I for one appreciate your work,and also recently your humour too ( average punter! ) because for me that,s what this website is all about , praying for snow a bit of banter and not taking things to seriously , now I know I've upset a few people and taken things to heart , but were all human and I do apologise when I've got it wrong. Anyway noza keep the faith and I for one will continue to follow your every word,
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
phillip33 wrote:
nozawaonsen,
I for one have never taken you seriously as your never Right!, come to think of it you,re never Wrong either as you never commit to anything,it,s all if,s and maybe,s, seriously though I for one appreciate your work,and also recently your humour too ( average punter! ) because for me that,s what this website is all about , praying for snow a bit of banter and not taking things to seriously , now I know I've upset a few people and taken things to heart , but were all human and I do apologise when I've got it wrong. Anyway noza keep the faith and I for one will continue to follow your every word,
If someone was trying to forecast either close / local detail, or trying to predict far out, then paradoxically, the best and accurate would use 'if's and 'maybe's. That's because trying to predict at such close detail, or, trying to predict at a low-confidence range is nothing more than ifs and maybes. Yes, there are plenty of signals that make a certain type of weather more likely or less likely, but general patterns are never nailed on until they are in the high-confidence timeframe, which I would guess to be around 96 hours. The weather forecasted for a week or more's time may well never come to happen. Therefore, it is wrong and inaccurate to say that something 'will' happen, even if the models suggest that. It's often the case that the next run would show a completely different weather pattern, or precipitation may move hundreds of miles in any direction. So it's very unlikely that a forecast for a long range will pan out exactly and come into fruition.
As for precisely-detailed snow events? Well, even if it's due to happen in just a few hours, it's almost impossible to forecast the snowline to anymore than the nearest hundred metres or so, and it's impossible to forecast just how much will fall, and where exactly it will fall. Of course, forecasts can give you a very good guess.
Weather forecasting is just a load of ifs and maybes, it's just a matter of determining which ifs are more likely of accurately occuring.
En Métropole, les températures moyennes et les cumuls de précipitation devraient être inférieurs aux normales saisonnières. Toutefois la prévisibilité saisonnière y reste encore limitée.
I could live with that - at least they'd be able to make snow! But low confidence in that forecast, it seems.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Still a tricky outlook this evening.
GFS at +240, with the Euro block out east.
ECM at +240, with low pressure from the north squeezing high pressure out.
Either way in the short term, by and large mild and relatively dry temperatures look likely to prevail in the Alps (and Scotland) until at the least mid month.
Crack open a beer, light a cigar and stretch out for a while... Nothing happening for a bit it seems...
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen wrote:
Either way in the short term, by and large mild and relatively dry .... in the Alps (and Scotland) until at the least mid month.
Yep, nothing much to worry about yet. November skiing in Scotland is only ever Brucey bonus really & the Alps have got well over a month to get the snowy goodness ready for their mid December openings.
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It's there anything to pick between GFS and ECMWF? or are they considered equally valid predictions of what could happen? The fact that they do not agree at present therefore suggesting that there is some uncertainty in the evolution of the weather and when the block will subside?
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tallman wrote:
It's there anything to pick between GFS and ECMWF? or are they considered equally valid predictions of what could happen? The fact that they do not agree at present therefore suggesting that there is some uncertainty in the evolution of the weather and when the block will subside?
tallman, each supercomputer modelling the weather (such as the ECM hosted in Reading, UKMO hosted in Exeter, GFS hosted in Maryland, US) produce scores of outputs daily (e.g. GFS publishes 22 runs every 6 hours). One is always designated the 'operational run' and is supposedly the one that receives the most data to churn and/or the most human intervention before publishing. In the ensuing chaos dividing individual computer modelled runs which might not have spotted the particular butterfly beating its wings in Peking in quite the same instant in time, direction, rhythm or height above the ground, the end result is inevitably different. Sometimes, when chance conspires or when there are no butterflies to worry about, the published runs will look similar but the general rule is, beyond about 5 days, mostly it's only worth looking for trends. That's when the ensembles are most useful. Presently, the spread of different outputs in the published runs suggests lots of uncertainty but that's always more likely after the seasonal equinoxes when there's the biggest differential in heat energy across the middle latitudes towards either pole.
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