Did anyone see this eastern block coming? I heard rummors about a Scandinavian block, and are easterlies prone to being dryer for the Western Alps?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Personally I'd trace it back to Marx and Engels...
phillip33, apologies the Eastern Block bit was meant to be rather tongue in cheek... The indications for high pressure building in Eastern Europe in the next couple of days have been there for a while now, it looks at present like it's going to be quite stubborn and while it is the weather pattern looks rather set. My calling it a block though is possibly rather over the top...
As for the potential for Scandinavian blocking during winter, there are some suggestions of this in some of the long term models. Time will of course tell.
Back to the 06z GFS run, it is interesting to note what's been happening to the mean (which is the thick grey line). Whilst on the latest run the operational is looking quite mild in FI, the mean (ie the average of all the runs) has been slipping lower and ends the run a good 10C lower by the end of the run. In the 06z it drops quite sharply on 03 November (you can see it quite well in this composite of the last four runs, in this chart the mean is red - it's a chart for the Arlberg, but the pattern is broadly the same across the Alps).
In terms of how to interpret this I'd suggest it means that the possibility of cooler weather in early November is still out there, but remains low confidence (you would want to start seeing it occurring in the operational runs in the next few days as well as cropping up on other models such as ECM before starting to take it seriously).
"Monday night, 24 October, in southern regions above approximately 1400 m, snowfall is expected to set in. The snowfall will become more intense and continue until Tuesday night, 25 October... By Wednesday, above approximately 2000 m on the Main Alpine Ridge from Monte Rosa into the Münstertal and south thereof, as well as in the Upper Engadine, 30 to 40 cm of snowfall is anticipated, locally as much as 60 cm of new fallen snow. On the remaining Main Alpine Ridge and in the Lower Engadine, 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow is expected." [SLF]
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
[a warning, it's a relatively technical lecture and 20 minutes long].
A few points he did mention, though underlining that it was not his actual forecast:
- Conflicting factors at this stage.
- A number of which point towards high pressure blocking over Scandinavia in December and January (rather than over Greenland like in last two years), though potentially shifting to Greenland in February.
- Polar Vortex over North West US and Canada.
- Analogue years for October would include 1998, 2005 and 2007 [all three of which were good snow winters for the Alps]
- For UK: "... slightly dryer than normal. [Temperatures] Average, possibly below average, becoming much below average during February."
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Rain and snow clearing this morning from the Eastern Alps, high pressure re-establishing itself, possibly a sunny weekend ahead.
Out in FI there are some interesting charts cropping up:
[18z GFS +228 0700 04 November] very cold chart, from a very cold run (plenty of snow in Scottish mountains and the Alps in that one).
What all these charts share is that they are all in the unreliable timeframe. What is worth noting is that they are producing a number of quite cold permutations in the same time frame.
Still very low confidence, plenty could change, but it will certainly be interesting to see how it looks this evening and in particular come Friday evening, as by then these charts will have moved into the high resolution part of the output.
ENSO slips down to -0.68 from -0.58 which keeps it playing in a fairly weak La Nina territory as it has been for a while now.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen,
It still looks like some precipitation from middle of next week though it looks like it will snow high up,when will this show up in high res?
After all it is free
After all it is free
Ps my 5 year old daughter typed this, better spelling than me( As my followers on this website will know)
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I love it when it's snow,s from amelia xxx (my daughter a junior snowhead ) !
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
A few things to note in the charts this evening.
- Between now and the end of the GFS run (11 November), most of the charts lose about 2C over the 30 year mean, which equates (very roughly) to an average 300m lower snow line between now and then as we get closer to the end of autumn.
- What looks like more unsettled, much wetter weather, possibly colder, though based on the mean more likely seasonal average, is poised to take over from +192.
- +192 also marks the borderline between high res and low res on GFS.
- Nevertheless almost all of the models see signs of a more aggressive Atlantic from at least +144.
- What remains unclear is what will happen when the Atlantic reaches the high pressure over Europe.
Of course, we are still only talking about the start of November so whatever happens is of course utterly irrelevant to what happens in winter...
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Worth remembering that we are still 5 - 6 months away from peak snow cover in the high Alps
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
fatbob, that's funny. That's a cut and paste job of a summary I wrote on 15 July (scroll back to p3 of this thread). Not sure why they pasted that up? (and why they chose that one? It's rather out of date now). Anyway, obviously wouldn't take it that seriously. Nice map.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
There've been a few GFS operational runs recently with a markedly cold theme. The 18Z brought the jet stream way south with a cool, wet, NW'ly flow & plenty snow for the mountains of NW Europe.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The set up's pretty much the same this morning.
- High pressure building over Eastern Europe and suggestions that the Atlantic is starting to power up. How the two interact is key.
- A pretty wet, autumnal period for the Alps in prospect the other side of the lo/hi res divide. 03 November in particular.
- The mean suggesting this would also lead to slightly cooler temperatures from around 05 November.
- Again looking at the mean the possibility, not probability, that by 07 November snow line (in far FI - so very low confidence!) dropping to around 1500m in the eastern Alps and 1800m in the Western Alps.
Less sign this morning of the more extreme northerlies which have been occasionally flashing their blades in earlier runs.
Let's see how it looks this evening.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen, Thought I couldn't see it on the actual NOAA site
Maybe drop Tim Konrad a friendly email and see if you can get the official Unoffical gig as Euro weather sage?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
In the reliable time frame that high pressure in eastern europe is looking really rather persistent. And whilst it is, it is going to keep mild temperatures over the Alps.
It's not something that one can predict with any great accuracy, certainly over a particular length of time. But CPC/NOAA produces an ensemble forecast. Looking at this you can see a trend which has been around for a few days now for this to head towards a neutral position at the start of November and then a very wide spread of the ensembles with quite a few heading strongly negative (although a number also push back into positive territory).
A negative NAO were it to happen, could be a precursor for colder weather in Northern Europe later in November. Certainly the very cold weather at the end of last November and December was accompanied by a very low NAO.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just so I understand all this. Is it mean it is looking like another crap season for the French Alps. Or does all this low probability stuff mean we might as well flip a coin???
emwmarine, it means the BBC got todays weather completely wrong so how can they forecast whats going to happen in February......
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
And a longer answer...
You cannot with any real degree of certainty predict the weather beyond 5 to 7 days. You might over time see a trend developing in say the seven to fourteen day range, but there won't be much in the way of detail and confidence in that outcome will be very low. Even shorter term weather can and does shift suddenly and predicting things like the amount of precipitation which will fall in a particular valley even a day ahead is difficult.
As for long range forecasting it is undoubtedly still very experimental and I would not take it that seriously. Long range forecasting models do not seek to predict the weather months in advance (it is not possible to do so), but looking at certain factors it is possible to come up with increased or decreased probabilities of certain climate trends. In some areas this works better than others. For example with a La Nina episode in place the probability of there being wetter and colder climate than average over winter in the Pacific North West is increased. It's still possible of course that it will be drier and milder on 12 January 2012 on Mount Baker than average (and indeed still possible that the whole winter would be drier and milder than normal, but during a La Nina winter this is less probable).
Last year throughout much of autumn models showed an increased probability of strong high pressure building over Greenland in early winter. They were also showing strong probabilities for a colder and drier start to winter. November and December were then exceptionally cold (though the extent of the deep cold was not necessarily seen).
This year there is no similar pattern. This doesn't mean the UK won't have a colder winter than normal, but there are no strong signs at this stage to suggest it will.
Over summer and early autumn a number of models were suggesting that there might be a colder start to winter in the Alps than usual and that the Alps would be colder in terms of anomalies than the UK, followed by a milder spring over much of Europe. That said there was nothing to suggest that it would be as cold a start as last year. Many of the models agree that there is likely to be a drier than usual winter in prospect with high pressure dominating (though some suggest this could move to Scandinavia which opens up the possibility of cold weather flowing across from the east and if we were fortunate meeting wet weather arriving from the west). More recently the signals for a cold start to winter seem to be weakening a little. And to me that suggests a weakening in the likelihood of a colder than average start. Mind you an "average" winter for the Alps is cold and snowy.
So is it looking like a bad season for the Alps? Not at this stage.
The CFS model produces forecast anomalies. Here are the current 30 day running means for Lyon (which obviously isn't actually the Alps...)
That suggest temperatures in December and January just a little colder than average, then moving up to average through spring. Precipitation is average and slightly lower than average in December and April.
That may or may not be right, but it doesn't look like a cause for concern to me if that were to validate.
And would you be as well to flip a coin? Well given the experimental nature of long range models you'd be foolish to put much faith in them, though I'm not necessarily sure flipping a coin is going to help you much either.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Back to this week...
That high pressure out east is now well established and acting as a block for much of the week.
You can see in this chart that by Wednesday 02 November low pressure has rolled across the Atlantic and comes up face to face with the high pressure in the east.
Both the low pressure (with wind moving round it anti clockwise) and the high pressure(with wind moving round it clockwise) are dragging up warm air from the Mediterranean which is going to mean continuing warm temperatures, especially on the northern side of the Alps with accompanying Föhn winds (though overnight temperatures could still be quite cold on the southern side of the Alps).
As that low pressure in the Atlantic hits the high pressure it breaks down and by the second half of the week it looks like it will end up sending wet weather south of the Alps.
So rather like Tuesday last it looks like this could bring heavy rain and snow at altitude (it looks to be around 2000m+ at this stage) to the western and southern Alps in the second half of next week in two bands 3/4 and 5/6 November.
05 November also at present (06z) looks like it marks the start of a gentle reduction in temperatures back to around seasonal average or possibly a little below.
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The chart below (from 12z GFS) gives quite a good idea of the areas looking likely to be favoured by snow at altitude towards the end of next week.
12z GFS turned out to be quite mild in FI, though it was a clear outlier on the ensembles (of course that always raises the question of whether it's signaling a new trend or just an outlier).
So despite the occasional charts hinting at colder options in FI, there is a stubbornness at present about the block out to the East.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
This morning's charts continue to show a similar pattern. Whilst high pressure sits out to the east, temperatures look set to stay mild for the time being, particularly in the eastern Alps. Heavy rainfall and snow at altitude (2100m+) look likely along the southern side side of the Alps, focussed in the west starting later on Thursday.
Two ways out seem possible at present, either at some point the eastern block collapses under pressure from the west and the Atlantic...
Some really quite intimidating rainfall being suggested by the 12z GFS for south of the Alps from 04 November to 08 November. Have a look at the Zermatt or Folgaria ensembles above. I'd imagine they'd calm down a little as we draw closer, but potentially very some heavy rainfall over the horizon, which could put quite a bit of snow down at altitude.
More generally the 12z GFS again looked to send the high pressure to the north and bring in easterlies towards the end of the run. All in FI though, so really just one option among many.
The mean continues to see a gentle cooling down from high temperatures from around 05 November.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, The sites I use are all predicting this eastern high to more or less stay put over the next week or so, which is bad news for us here in the eastern Alps (at least on the north side). Nearly everything predicting southerlies (Foehn for us then) or South easterlies Cold night and cloudless mild dry days.
We can but hope that the high declines and moves further to the east, but we really need that Scandinavian high to build to give us some really cold notherly flows and then the nice Adriatic lows that serve up the moisture to give us some nice early season dumps. Looks like the UK is going to take a bit of a wet pasting over the next week though but still too mild.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Well certainly this evening's output saw all the major models suggesting high pressure moving up over or towards Scandinavia by 05 November (+144, the limits of the UKMO public ensembles).
Whether it does and if it does whether it's able to hold it's place long enough to establish a block up there (and allow cold air to roll in from the east) we'll see... Still not a bad sign for early November and the further we get through November the more likely there will be cold air out east to be pulled across if this pattern persists or reappears...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
No major change to the pattern this morning.
Looking out the Bonfire Night you can see the high pressure building over Scandinavia, as the low pressure works its way to the south of the Alps (a "sudstau").
Over the course of the run the high over Scandinavia does pull cold air down to the east, but it never really reaches the Alps staying too far east.
In FI (so unreliable) the Scandinavian high builds again and this time with a source of cold to tap into it does pull cold air over the Alps. By the end of the run point it has also set itself up with an interesting pattern with high pressure building over Greenland and low pressure out in the Atlantic. This would produce the building blocks for a -NAO and if it were to happen (this is the far end of FI so one can assume it won't happen quite like this) it would allow cold to push down from the north.
It will be interesting to see what pattern develops after 05 November.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen,
Hi noza,don't know if you read other threads but my daughter ( hello this is Amelia) is now keenly waiting for snow,now I have explained to her that it is to early,but she is getting worried as she heard me talking to mummy this morning and I was saying it's to warm and when it's looks like getting cold there won't be any bloody snow ( yes a pound in the swear box) looked on the graphs tonight and there seems to be a drop in temps but with little action on the snow front, I know it's a long way out but how are you seeing this, daughter asleep now but she,s expecting a positive and clean update tomorrow!!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
phillip33,
If we can establish the cold the snow will follow, and places like schladming where I spend a lot of time are brilliant at making snow and covering the mountain
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Heavy snowfall likely from 03 to 06 November, snowline 2000m-2200m+, primarily in a line from Montgenevre, through Monterosa to Zermatt.
More generally it's still just 01 November so no need to worry about snow cover at this stage. It could snow all week and then still all melt next week at this stage. The second half of the month is potentially more interesting.
Once we pass 05 November temperatures look to fall back to seasonal averages. GFS 00z threw out a cold outlier of an operational this morning, but it was on it's own with no support.
Incidentally touching on the question of singularities. I've seen various singularities listed for the Alps, but none from original sources and moreover they didn't seem to show the same singularities(!). On a related note you find Lostagen (which are closer to folklore), such as Weihnachtstauwetter which is a fairly frequent thawing period over Christmas (though the boundary between the mild and wet weather from the south west with colder weather in the north east can see heavy snow).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, Been over on TWO this morning and, although there doesn't seem to be much discussion of the Alps on there this year, they don't seem too concerned from a UK point of view as yet?
Looking on the winter prospects thread there seems to be positive thoughts from mid month onwards.
That said there must be a few Alpine resorts with scheduled late November openings getting a bit anxious with only the long range FI stuff showing a bit of a northerly plunge from about 13th onwards?
robboj, to be honest with you I don't think any resorts would be especially worried at this stage. November can shift around very quickly (there's a 3 to 4C drop in mean average temperatures between the start and the middle of November) and parts of the Alps are about to get some good high altitude snowfall at the end of this week. Second half of the month is where it starts to get interesting.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, I'm following the local weather very closely here and they are predicting with "reasonable" accuracy about 16 days in advance (www-wetter.com). I base my assessment of reasonable accuracy on my personal experience of being able to plan my flying days quite successfully in advance (I fly a paraglider and am very, very obsessed with the weather and weather forecasting!).
We are expected to have a drop in temperature from the 7th onwards with a big drop around the 10th, going from 15°C as the maximum on the 10th down to 5°C max. on the 12th. The same picture is predicted for most of my local haunts in the Sportwelt Amade as well. However, none of the forecasts are predicting any precipitation between now and then This situation has been like this since the last snowy rain in the middle of October now.
I know the snow cannons are ready to rock and roll as soon as the temperatures day and night make it worthwhile, but this is the driest October/November I have experienced since I moved out permanently here in 1997/98. The almost constant high pressure to the east of us is maintaining a fairly strong upper air flow from the south to the north. On the ground, we are experiencing the occasional Föhn storm, but mostly light, variable winds mostly from a southerly direction (ESE to WSW and anywhere in between). The strongest patterns are the anabatic/katabatic winds that we are experiencing between day and night. At night we have the cold katabatic winds keeping us clear and cold, then in the day time, after glorious dawns, we gradually disappear into cloud as the anabatic winds bring the morning mists from the lower land to the north of us up to our level. My village has just disappeared into this mist after enjoying a really beautiful morning of autumnal sunshine.
The predictions of "drier than usual" of some of the long term forecasts earlier in the year are now beginning to haunt me. I hate skiing on artificial snow (called Kunstschnee here, which pretty closely approximates my description of it without upsetting the profanity filter ) How are the models looking for the Eastern Alps currently? I have noticed that the Western Alps are about to be inundated ( http://www.niederschlagsradar.de/forecastloop.aspx?type=1) but we are protected to a large degree.
Samerberg Sue, I would be surprised if the wetter.com forecast was not produced using the operational run of GFS. That temperature drop is just what the operational is showing on the 00z (albeit it was pretty much on it's own and unless it picks up support on subsequent runs I'd be cautious about it). The 16 day forecast also makes me think of GFS...
In terms of being reasonably accurate if my suspicion is right it is as accurate as the GFS operational run. So decreasing accuracy from 5-7 days, substantial decrease after that.
As for precipitation it's interesting what you say.
"Um 25 bis 75 Prozent mehr Niederschlag fielen in Vorarlberg, im Tiroler Oberland, Teilen Salzburgs, Oberösterreichs und Kärntens und in der Obersteiermark."
Both stations look around 50% above average, though you can see this was largely due to heavy rain in the second week of the month and as you suggested it has been far drier over the rest of the month.
As for the coming rain/snow at the end of the week, it does look mainly focussed on the western end of the southern Alps coming in from the south. And though I would expect light snow in Austria above 2300m+ it doesn't look like it will be anything like the potential snowfall at the western end of the Italian/Swiss border (above 2000m - 2200m).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Samerberg Sue
Quote:
I hate skiing on artificial snow (called Kunstschnee here, which pretty closely approximates my description of it without upsetting the profanity filter )
Agree Sue, there was too much of it about last year!
Slightly off topic but; The cannons were on night and day for the whole 2 weeks I was out there last January. I was told this was because there is a new law that say they can't make snow after 1st March as the artificial stuff takes too long to melt and hinders the alpine flowers etc in early summer. If it does then fair enough to restrict it but to me all it seemed to achieve was an endless supply of artificial snow in January when it wasn't needed and spoiled the real stuff. The irony being that it did not appear to last very long in Spring, which rendered it all rather pointless anyway?
nozawaonsen, yes, probably, but after the last few years bumper early snow and with a number scheduled to open on the w/e of 19/20 Nov and many on 26/27 Nov they must be watching every run very closely.
After all it is free
After all it is free
For what it's worth GFS 06z has just put out another cold (and not unsnowy) operational FI run for the Alps with a mid month -NAO pattern forming. A long way to go yet mind. See if it get's any sort of support this evening.
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nozawaonsen, the bulk of that precipitation fell over two particularly horrible weekends and in between we have had practically nothing. That is what I meant by dry. There have been no prolonged precipitation events since August. We get heavy downpours either as rain, hail or snow and then nothing.
Yes the monthly averages may show a percentage above the mean, but when it is all in one or two unusual events, the long term overall picture is different. The most interesting part of the ZAMG report was the final paragraph:
Quote:
Überdurchschnittlich viel Sonne
Trotz des Niederschlagsüberschusses im Oktober 2011, war es in weiten Teilen des Landes überdurchschnittlich sonnig. 10 bis 30 Prozent mehr Sonne als üblich schien in Vorarlberg, Nordtirol, Tennen- und Flachgau, Oberösterreich und Wald- und Weinviertel. Spitzenreiter der relativen Sonnenstatistik war Kremsmünster (ca. 170 Stunden) mit rund 45 Prozent oder 50 Stunden mehr Sonnenschein. Am längsten schien die Sonne in diesem Oktober mit rund 224 Stunden (+28%) am Patscherkofel (T). Südlich der Linie Kitzbühl – Mariazell – Wien schien die Sonne den vieljährigen Mittelwerten (+/- 10%) entsprechend.
Effectively saying it has been too sunny most of the month in the northern half and in the southern half it was more in line with the averages obtained after many years of study. The fact that, all in all it has been drier is what concerns me and that it seems to be the prognosis for the coming period.
The definitive report for October will be published on 4th November and that will be interesting
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
May be slightly off topic, but j2ski and snow-forecast are both predicting dumps (I've been checking Val Thorens since that's where I'm going) from Thursday/Friday (Thursday for snow-forecast and Friday for j2ski)... This seems to correlate roughly with what nozawaonsen said. However the numbers are fairly different between the two in terms of snowfall, with j2ski predicting less, as are the freezing levels.
So my question is, based on past experience which one is likely to be more accurate? Or is neither any good?
I noticed last week they both had dumps predicted in advance for Tuesday, which were then revised down closer to the time, and in practice only a sprinkling arrived.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
) How are the models looking for the Eastern Alps currently? I have noticed that the Western Alps are about to be inundated ( 