Next week sees high pressure developing over central and eastern Europe and then building into a block over Scandinavia. The Atlantic hurls low pressure towards Europe, but the block resists. The outcome of this struggle will define how the weather develops. At present there is still a possibility of snow at altitude in the Western Alps for the middle of next week. But it will be rain up to at least 2000m on the basis of this morning's output (similarly though a little earlier, Scotland looks like quite a bit milder weather and rain will arrive this weekend).
Much later in the run (and at the very unreliable end) you get an idea of what happens if (big if) the Scandi high weighs anchor.
Which would bring cold and snow from the east.
Here's a piece from Jim Steenburgh at Wasatch Weather Weenies.
Just in terms of those charts, the first is a monthly precipitation probability chart, second monthly precipitation anomaly chart, the third an apparent precipitation forecast for 16 December (+1416) - all CFS (ie the same model)?
Daily CFS monthly charts fluctuate a lot, daily CFS monthly anomaly charts fluctuate quite a bit more, any chart trying to suggest daily precipitation beyond about +144 is low confidence (nearly 10 times that cannot give any confidence at all).
That's not to question what they say (they say what they say) and that's fine, just to suggest if it is a trend you want you would ideally see it being repeated for days if not weeks on end (and ideally seeing the same pattern being picked up in other models) before you have any confidence...
And even then like any long range forecast I'd treat it with low confidence!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Here's a selection of ensembles...
You can see the continuing pattern for rain/snow in France around 26 October as a low pressure system sits to the north of the Bay of Biscay. Although snow line looks like it would be around 2000m+.
Further out temperatures currently look close to seasonal average in much of the Alps (slightly wilder variation in Scotland), and though there are a few colder runs (notably the control), there isn't much to back up yesterday's suggestion of a strong easterly in FI.
Thinking of ENSO the latest update sees it slide back up to -0.54 from -0.78, just keeping things in weak La Nina territory.
Here's a piece by Joel Gratz at Colorado Powder Forecast.
"... a cold front will reach the Alps. The snowfall level will drop from 2000 m down to about 800 m in northern regions; and down to about 1200 m in southern regions. By the evening of Thursday, 20 October, 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is anticipated above 2000 m in the Lower Valais and on the northern flank of the Alps."
This evening's models continue to support the potential for a further bout of rain/snowfall next Tuesday/Wednesday (25/26 October) with a snow level looking to be around 2000m, so obviously not down to the valley's if that verified, but a further top up at altitude, particularly on the French/Italian border and in the Southern French Alps by the looks of things. Before then some sunny and crisp weather over the weekend.
Beyond 27 October in general conditions look roughly seasonal, although it's noticeable (though not necessarily that significant at this stage) that a small number of ensembles are still pursuing the very cold easterly idea.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Temperatures in the Alps look like being on the cool side for the time of year for much of the next week (conversely Scotland is looking slightly milder for the time of year).
25/26 October continues to look potentially quite wet in the Alps, especially round the French/Italian border. Snow line perhaps creeping down to 1800m+ on some of this morning's output.
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And suggesting quite a bit of snow falling around 25/26 October down to around 1700m+ in this evening's output. As in earlier runs the focus looks like being towards the western end of the Alps.
Beyond that... Broadly average for the time of year, but that could of course all change...
For much of winter they see no particularly strong signal for cold, average or warm temperatures (so all remain equally probable). Similarly they do not see any particular trend for precipitation.
However early winter sees a 50% chance of warmer conditions than average in the western Alps and southern French Alps. 40% in Eastern Alps. Spring sees 40% probability of warmer temperatures in southern French Alps, 50% chance of warmer in Scotland.
What to make of it? Not a lot. The warmer temperature in places in spring fits the general pattern, warmer in early winter seems rather to buck the trend so far, so has to be low confidence.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Some very slight suggestions of colder weather approaching the Alps early November in the last few runs...
And this morning's GFS sends a cold blast from the Arctic on 05 November (obviously far, far too far out to take seriously at this stage)...
In the meantime some fine weather over the weekend in the Alps and continuing likelihood of snowfall above 1800m in parts of the Alps on 25/26 October.
And finally with the current sunny weather a public safety video for driving in the Italian Alps...
other wigglies are a bit harder in that they're on a grid of whole degrees, so the ones below are for 7 45 (see the number 745 halfway through?) since la tania is 6 1/2 45 1/2 the best you can do is put in say, 745, 645, 644 and 744 and try to piece together your own picture from there......
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_745_ens.png
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
rogg, minor point, but the first of those is the meteogram (which draws heavily on the GFS operational run of the ensembles), the second two are diagrams of the ensembles (both GFS, but one from meteociel and the other from wetterzentrale.de).
In terms of "favouring" anywhere I simply meant that snow (and rain below around 1800m) is looking more likely to the south and west of the Alps.
If this verified temperatures would not be far off average, coldest against average in December, mildest against average by April. By comparison last December (the coldest in over 40 years in France) was -3.0C against average. And April (the second hottest April since 1900) was +4.0C above average. So quite a dramatic see saw in 2010/11.
Precipitation would average at -5.1% (a little below average - put another way you'd see 94.9% of average precipitation) for the five months, compared to -35% to -50% for the northern French Alps last season and -11% to -35% for the southern French Alps.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Heavy rain and snowfall possibly down to 1600m+ in the Southern French Alps and across the border in Italy looks increasingly likely early on Tuesday (25 Oct) building through the day.
By late Tuesday (25 Oct) /early Wednesday (26 Oct) the last few runs are now suggesting this looks like it might reach into the Tirol though the snow line would probably be closer to 2000m+.
Beyond that temperatures look likely to be milder than they have been over the last few days in the Alps, so close to seasonal average, with high pressure in place through to the end of October.
Looking a little further east, keeping an eye on Japan's autumn.
Slightly above average and in certainly for Honshu, drier than normal (looks like Hokkaido could get some wind and rain on Tuesday GFS +54, but temperatures are nothing to get excited about for now).
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NOAA seem to think La Nina's on but hedging bets a bit with talk of a wildcard
"Could we see a repeat of the extreme weather conditions that occurred across Colorado last winter? Of course, it’s always possible, but probably not likely, even with a return to La Niña conditions." [Mike Baker]
ECM incidentally are tightening their ENSO forecast around +/- -0.75.
Back to the nearer to medium term there are continuing very faint signals cropping up in far FI for colder and interesting weather in the Alps around perhaps 04, 05, 06 November. But very, very low confidence at this stage...
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen,
any graphs to show this
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
seany1,
thanks
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
phillip33, the chart seany1 posted is not far from Bad Gastein, if you click on the links below you can see various ensembles (listed by nearby areas):
As for early November, well it's too far off to have any confidence in at all. Just a vague shape you might just be able to make out peering into the distant mist at this time. May all just blow away...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen,
thanks , this morning,s graphs looks interesting at the end
"...we think that the worst of the cold across Western Europe will be in December and January, and that the back-half of winter could be significantly milder." [WSI]
Shorter term, heavy rain with snow possibly above 1600-1800m Tignes, Serre Chevalier, Montgenevre, Zermatt, Saas Fe (arriving very late tonight, early tomorrow), by tomorrow afternoon arriving in parts of the Tirol and Dolomites with snow above 2100m.
After that high pressure and milder, a little over seasonal, temperatures running out October.
Beyond that some continuing weak suggestions in the distance that early November could see colder temperatures pushing through... But will the high pressure hold it off?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
06z run consolidated the cooler outlook from early November. Quite a good deal of support from a number of the ensemble runs (the charts in the links above should update in about 5 mins). Still in the low res part of the run and plenty could of course change between now and the end of October, but worth keeping an eye on...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Local radio is forecasting a possible Föhn wind and 21degC tomorrow in Austria
stevev, yes, there's a mild spell coming up particularly for parts of Austria. Temperatures in the Arlberg and Tirol look about 5C higher than further west in the Alps. This mild weather currently looks like it will run to the end of October. Then could get colder again...
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Strong southerly Föhn here in Upper Bavaria due to the high pressure cell slipping east and the circulation around it and across the Frontal system in western France. Perfect snow-eater conditions sadly!
Samerberg Sue, yes it looks like it just sits over Moscow for the next week...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
12z GFS backed away a little from the strong 06z run, which isn't a complete surprise, and there are still suggestions of cooler temperatures in the Alps in early November (around 03 November in this evening's run). That's still a long way off though so has to be very low confidence for now.
Before then (and after some quite heavy snow/rain in places tomorrow, see above) the main issue is high pressure. Here it is on Thursday on ECM with warm air up being drawn up over the Alps from the south.
It's just possible that the low pressure system in the Bay of Biscay might cut across the Southern French Alps on Friday, otherwise it looks pretty dry.
Out in the Atlantic low pressure systems lie in wait, the track they take depends on how the block holds...
After all it is free
After all it is free
Rain (snow at altitude) coming through parts of the Alps today, looks cooler on the Italian side of the border. [WRF]
Watching autumn snow is like watching the tide coming in, waves rolling in, then rolling back, occasionally one makes it further up the shore than the others, before subsiding, but gradually though they reach higher and higher.
Back to the coming week, will the Eastern Block hold?
Looks like it will for a while longer from the 06z GFS.
Looking ahead towards winter ZAMG (Austrian weather service) has updated it's seasonal outlook.
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Poster: A snowHead
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