 Poster: A snowHead
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Snow at Easter statistically more likely than at Christmas
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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And to add to that GFS at 240.
Which goes on to produce some very snowy weather in the Alps a few days later.
Both models now suggesting a similar pattern. Details unclear, but if this persists confidence growing.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Keep the faith , had fresh every Easter I think for 12 years now, maybe 1 or 2 years without....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Some cooler weather pushing across the Alps now (certainly in comparison to the last few weeks). Some light snow in parts of Austria - and again on Sunday.
A midweek cold push on 04/05 April looks quite possible. With potentially a fair bit of fresh snow.
Beyond that and into FI this morning's GFS has a pretty cold picture with further snowfall looking possible on and off and particularly around 10/11 April (though that is obviously a long way out).
All in all a colder and snowier outlook that we've had for some time.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Will be out from the 7th onwards - looks like I've timed it nicely!
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Please let it snow in Scotland on the 10th-17th April!!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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moffatross, really trying not to hype this up for the Arlberg....let's wait a week and see if it continues 
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Afternoon avalanche report for Steiremark, Austria, http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage talks of up to 40cms of new snow in last 24 hours, an increase in avi risk above treeline with new snow not bonding very well and drifting. Also mentions Sunday cold front coming in, will bring a 10 degree temp drop and some snow. Currently still raining in Schladming town, will be snowing from mid-mountain upwards, was a nice 15cm - 20cm fresh this morning, will clear up here tomorrow, so early bird could catch some heavy powder.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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ZAMG on March in Austria.
March 2012: Unusually sunny, warm and dry
- Third warmest March since 1767.
- Only 25% of average rainfall across Austria, one of the driest since records began. Especially dry in Carinthia, Styria and Burgenland.
- Third sunniest March since 1880.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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anyone have any updates?
It seems that most models have the high pressure moving away, but what will that mean?
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Ricklovesthepowder, You haven't booked a holiday in Scotland with any confidence of snow have you?
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You know it makes sense.
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06z GFS continues to tell a fairly cold and snowy story.
- Light snow this evening into Austria.
- From Tuesday evening snow pushing into the Alps from the South West as cold air pushing down from the North. Though snow line is still unclear, 1500m+/-. It looks quite persistent. Lasting through to Saturday.
- At which point cold air renews its push from the north. GFS 06z +180
- Possibly bringing heavier easter snowfall from 08/09/10 April.
Quite a change from the last couple of weeks.
Here's a rough look of how the 06z would play out through to Saturday.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Interesting weekly review by SLF which also looks back at March conditions.
Du 23 au 29 mars 2012: Conditions de randonnées de plus en plus favorables; quelques déclenchements d'avalanches par des personnes sur les pentes exposées au nord
- Mild, sunny spring like weather lead to a generally decreasing avalanche risk.
- Milder than usual temperatures have continued since the cold spell in February.
- Across the Swiss Alps snow depths between 1000-1700m were only above average from the Gothard into the Alpstein.
- Above 1700m snow depths are either average or above average across the Swiss Alps except in the southern Alps.
- In the northern Alps by late March, the snow line was about 1200m on north facing slopes and about 1500m on south facing slopes.
- Thanks to nocturnal radiation surface snow on north facing slopes remained powdery.
- Warming temperatures have tended to increase the risk of wet snow avalanches, but despite this there have been relatively few.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, thanks for the "ski party" pic, very good. Not quite so keen on the snow forecast pic above, on that the "far eastern" alps are on the edge of the snow. I guess the thrust of the weather will be coming from the west. Just started to rain here, still mild but set to drop 10 degrees overnight and snow a little, even down to the valley apparently, we're see.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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waynos, wouldn't take those charts too seriously. Just gives a general picture.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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under a new name, No, we have a cottage booked on the eastern shore of Loch Lomand. Would love some snow and maybe one last cheeky slide before summer!!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Ricklovesthepowder, Ah, lovely but don't you mean Loch Lomond?
High road, low road and all that? Have a splendid time, it is a lovely part of the world.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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This morning's GFS op run has cold weather pushed further east by high pressure over the Azores.
Compare this to some of the charts above.
This would mean temperatures closer to seasonal average in just over a week rather than the cooler temperatures being suggested in last night's runs. Though the operational run in this case is something of an outlier, so you'd want to see a few more runs before really having a sense whether this is a trend or an anomaly.
Certainly the weather for Easter and the week after has little real consistency across models at present and even how it will behave later this week remains uncertain with some slightly suspicious output in some of the ensembles above (the one for Zermatt is particularly striking, though it's notable that nothing of that intensity is cropping up on WRF).
At this stage it still looks more unsettled from midweek with temperatures seasonal average and in some cases possibly below. The detail is still elusive.
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under a new name, yes that Loch, i was nearly right!!!
kitenski, You had me then for 10 seconds!!! Only if!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Fairly strong swing against colder weather over Easter in both ECM and GFS this evening.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Fairly strong swing against colder weather over Easter in both ECM and GFS this evening. |
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, I was looking at the 12z for the Arlberg and thought it was still going for a cold spell around the 9th april??
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski, you are absolutely right, the 12z does still drop on the Easter Monday although not as steeply in some of the recent runs and the amount of snowfall has dropped quite a bit. It then warms up quite swiftly. ECM shows a similar pattern this evening.
But of course it could easily switch back to something closer to last night by tomorrow evening.
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nozawaonsen, thanks for the quick reply
In my view there is huge variance between the various runs from the 5th April, even the control and the average seem to vary a fair bitso all up in the air, let's see what happens. Could be interesting!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, What's the general outlook for Scotland over the next 10 days?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ricklovesthepowder, quite a bit of snow in the short term. After that less sure, but looks like milder weather over Easter before cooling again. I'm not really sure there is much to be squeezed out of the rest of the season in Scotland. I'm sure you could find something. But equally there comes a point when hiking may be more fun? (happy to be corrected by others more familiar with Scottish skiing).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A quick update from the southern alps
Warm and sunny.
Some rain /snow forecast locally over the next 48 hrs although it always seems to fizzle out and the FL doesn't seem anywhere near low enough for me.
We shall see 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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looking selfishly at only the Arlberg, and based on the 00z GFS....
Looks like some snow between the 5th and 9th April, how much seems very much up in the air, with temps dropping below seasonal norm from the 7th until they recover back over average by about the 10th but still disagreement in the models.
If that pans out I should get some decent snow whilst the kids are in ski school on the 8th and 9th
so April Showers methinks, which have done well for me in past years.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Hmmm, trying to decide between Ischgl this weekend with piste lovers and St Anton the next with my offpiste buddy.
Or maybe St Anton both weekends. kitenski, if I'm around by any chance, will you share some turns?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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horizon, sure, we are in a largish group, but normally split off. My kids are in ski school on the 8th and 9th, after that they would be skiing with me, unless I can get a special pass for a day off
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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kitenski, it was a great 12Z run from the GFS. Widely good for the Alps, the Monta Rosa ski areas in particular would get a powder plastering and moe to the point, up to 40 or 50 cm of snow is possible for the Arlberg late Thursday through Saturday. 
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moffatross, are you out in the Arlberg as well (memory fade....)
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kitenski, yep, a week staying in Lech ... Gatwick (not Glasgow) -> Innsbruck this Sunday. Will catch the bus to Stuben/Alpe Rauz for a couple of days in St Anton too.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Wiggles for Bad Gastein look promising.
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moffatross, say hello if you see us then, will be on pm gear Lhasa or head titan, blue pants, blue goggles & blue/white helmet. Likely with 2 kids, better skier wife & a few mates.
Helmet has changed since this pic,,,,,
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Tue 3-04-12 23:58; edited 2 times in total
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