 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, a 20 degree possible split in the ensembles on 6th March looking at the 18z for Stuben!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, do you have any updates for Jackson Hole and Park City. Am heading to Jackson on Saturday and then Park City early next week! Thanks.
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No big changes from the overnight run. High pressure all the way and little if any snow. Most if not all of the models now agreeing on a big warm up from Tue/Wed next week. Question is how long will the warm weather last? Sun cream and shades would be advisable if skiing in the Alps in the next couple of weeks. I still can't believe that it's nearly March and not one big dump of snow has affected the Italian Dolomites this winter. WOuld love to see figures showing how low the precipitation has been in that region this winter
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Just hope it breaks down for 10 days time..... 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| norris wrote: |
| Just hope it breaks down for 10 days time..... |
So do I!!
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Off to Mottaret on 16th of March... hope the snow will last in this hot weather 
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norris, some suggestions of this in this morning's output. But not especially strong at present.
Anyway, shades and suntans isn't a bad look. On some people at least. Just make sure the beer's cold.
Tom W, yes there will be snow in Mottaret in mid March.
jimmybog, will see if I can find some. There will certainly be some floating around mid March. But yes, the Dolomites have not had a strong season so far.
darbyrw, Jackson has actually had a better season than many other western resorts. And it's been snowing there in the last few days.
Northwesterly flow or "Dirty Ridge"
Utah has had a trickier season. But conditions are improving.
Utah conditions
Utah forecast
Last edited by After all it is free  on Thu 23-02-12 11:09; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Tom W, I suspect you may just be ok 
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nozawaonsen, yes some weak signs. see what the 06 brings..
got a road trip through central switzerland coming up so really could do with snow as its all off piste
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
Seems like it is rather easy for 7-10 days forecast to change from cold and snowier to hot and sunny but rarely the other way around.
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 if that was true it would just get hotter and sunnier till we all disappeared in a puff of smoke.
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And the irony is, the opposite is happening.
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You know it makes sense.
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Tom W, it's largely untrue. People looking at the weather in summer hoping for hot and sunny weather frequently make similar comments about the models being frustrating. So unless there is some bizarre built in bias designed to frustrate, I suspect it has a lot more to do with expectations and the increased variation from run to run at that range.
Where there is some truth is that the GFS operational is currently run at two resolution levels. Up to +192 is hi res, beyond is low res. The low res runs can often amplify features which can create distortions of scale (but in all directions) beyond eight days.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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pam w, paulio, nozawaonsen, Did I not said it was RUBBISH 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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anyone else thought that meant Arc 1950?
I expected smug euro-families and bad architecture and I get beehives and capri pants.
I am just back from an enforced spell in hotter climes and have been worried that we're gripped by a devastating thaw.
Perhaps that is not the case judging by the chilled-out att-tit-tood of the cognescenti on here
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Interesting little round up from Meteo France.
Point sur l'enneigement dans les massifs français au 22 février 2012
- The last significant snowfall [in the French Alps] was over three weeks ago at the end of January.
- The cold spell, with minimums between -20C and -30C is now finished, thanks to mild air and sunshine mean even if temperatures are negative at day break, they are positive during the day.
- Snow levels have not changed much over the last week. Marked contrast between north and south.
- Northern Alps: 10% to 50%, very good, more than average for the time of year, though ridges and exposed areas have lost coverage due to high winds in December and January.
- Southern Alps: Hautes Alpes is good, generally around normal for the time of year though 20-30% higher in some places. However, Alpes de Haute-Provence and Alpes-Maritimes are poor with snow levels -20 to -50% beneath seasonal average.
- Pyrenees: Snow good at all levels.
There was of course more recent and heavy snowfall last week in the eastern Alps, Austria in particular, leading to a spate of serious avalanches.
In general the eastern Alps will continue to see slightly cooler weather even in the current milder period. With the possibility of some very light snow on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures look like falling about 10C from tonight to Monday morning, before rising by at least that much by the middle of next week.
So temperatures will again be very mild in the middle of next week. Beyond that is less clear. Some suggestions of more unsettled weather as we go into March, but the pattern to beat is dry and mild.
So of course the next question is what to wear? And the answer is simple.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Not sure I agree with the observation of no significant snow since the end of January. We had 30cm in a 24 hour period 14/15 Feb in Chatel (measured on my car roof). Obviously that doesn't speak for the whole of the Alps but it certainly felt significant on Thursday 16th. Certainly one tumble I took brought guffaws from the rest of the guys - i was totally submerged and lost both skis and was thigh deep looking for one of them (bloody Salomon BBRs hired for the day!)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Forecast for some snow in the middle of Austria for Sun / Mon and getting a little cooler but then wiggles bring on spring again.
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It looks increasingly like a broad repeat of last season.
A snowy first half. A dry second half.
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Nothing really on the horizon to challenge the dominance of high pressure across Europe at present. By and large that looks like meaning mild and dry temperatures reaching into March. That said a weak disturbance will push across this weekend bringing cloudier weather by Saturday evening, possible snow in the Eastern Alps Sunday into Monday and cooler temperatures by Mobday morning.
By the middle of next week though as waynos suggests sunshine and mild temperatures should be filling the après terraces...
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Whitegold, only in the very broadest sense. Last season did not have an exceptionally snowy first half. This season snow across much of the northern Alps is significantly above average. Last season it was significantly under average.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Whitegold, Yes there were some periods of snowfall and some without and winter turned to spring.
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From nozawaonsen's map, the far west of Ukraine looks like it's in for a treat next week!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Piece from HAT on some of the recent avalanche activity.
Some recent accidents and more misleading information.
"Contrary to what is being said by even experienced journalists, the latest round of avalanche accidents is not due to all the snow that these parts of the Alps have had since the beginning of the season. It is due to the cold temperatures of the last month or so that has created a weak layer - then it snowed on top of this weak layer and that created an unstable snowpack (new snow on top of a weak layer)."
[for further background on the on piste avalanche in Austria see 18 Feb entry on here]
The Kuratorium für Alpine Sicherheit provides the following figures for avalanche fatalities in Austria.
10/11 3
09/10 39
08/09 32
07/08 29
06/07 17
Over the last 20 years there have been an average 25 fatalities per year (the years below being notable either for significantly high or low numbers of deaths):
04/05 48
03/04 8
98/99 50
97/98 11
They also had an interesting piece on on piste accidents. Between 01 November and 01 February there were 237 hit and run incidents on Austrian slopes, much less than over the same period last year. But as a proportion has remained 22% of accidents.
Here's how WRF sees some of the snowfall in the coming few days focussed on western Austria.
Sunday 26 0900
Tuesday 28 0300
Some suggestions in this evening's GFS that as we move into the second week of March the high pressure might start to break down, but you'd want to see that cropping up quite a bit over the next few days before starting to put any confidence in it.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Some continuing suggestions in this morning's FI output.
GFS 06z +348
and
ECM 00z +240
that once we get towards the end of the first week and into second week of March high pressure over Europe may collapse.
I wouldn't take any of those particular charts seriously at this stage (nor would I rule out a resurgence in high pressure), but worth keeping an eye on in the 12z charts this evening.
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nozawaonsen, Any outlook for Scotland?
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You know it makes sense.
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Ricklovesthepowder, Scotland like the rest of the UK is likely to be exceptionally mild for the next week, considerably more so than the Alps (which will also have some very mild weather though neither as prolonged nor as warm as Scotland). Beyond that and beyond the reliable timeframe there is a possibility of colder and snowier weather returning.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I'm not suggesting the charts will look like this at T +0, but it continues to look like there may be options for colder and snowier weather in early March for the Alps and Scotland.
ECM 12z +240
GFS 12z +324
Meanwhile some warm and sunny weather coming up midweek (though some light snow in the eastern Alps tomorrow).
Good times are out there!
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Poster: A snowHead
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GFS 18z suggests the high pressure will start to break down around Sunday 04 - Monday 05 March, with the Azores High slipping back west and a trough pushing down from the north west.
GFS 18z +192
And bringing with it a colder and snowier outlook.
Worth keeping and eye on.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Please let that continue through the next couple of weeks... First trip to espace killy on march 11th and the top up would be nice!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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shoogly, we may cross tracks, I'll be in Sainte Foy the same week with snowball and others, and will ski Espace Killy for at least a couple of days.
We need that top-up, I'm keeping my ifgnsre rcsossde.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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just checked webcams for Skiwelt and plenty of snow falling. Temps seem lower than forecast so what was predicted as rain is falling as snow. Happy days
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
GFS 18z suggests the high pressure will start to break down around Sunday 04 - Monday 05 March, with the Azores High slipping back west and a trough pushing down from the north west.
GFS 18z +192
And bringing with it a colder and snowier outlook.
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Bring it on 
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horizon, will pm nearer the time
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Here's a good link from SLF showing snow depth percentage of long-term mean values for the snowpack in Switzerland as of 23 February. Parts of the east have twice, even three times average for the time of year.
There's been some reasonable snowfall in the eastern Alps today. Not massive, but 15cm+ in places. And it looks like there may be further light snow in Austria Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures start the week low overnight, though warming quickly where there's sunshine and rising to very mild from midweek.
However, there's growing consistency towards a change to colder and snowier weather in the Alps from around 05 March. Whether that sets up a more sustained period of snowy weather in the Alps is less clear. But this afternoon's 12z GFS keeps it rolling right on through FI.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, Been snowing pretty hard around Schladming since mid afternoon, just poked head out the door still coming down hard. Liking the Early March forecast.
Here's the latest radar with some nice bright colours.
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