 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Thanks nozawaonsen, Snow-Forecast's 15h update is even better for the Dolomites than the one this morning. So for once I hope that is right and not ECM.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
If the current GFS-based forecasts turn out to be correct we're in for another difficult transfer day in some places - let's hope people get their chains organised!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
This is turning out to be a very frustrating winter here in the Pyrenees. We have had two weeks of clear blue skies, and though very cold overnight the lack of fresh snow is really beginning to tell. The forecast 5 days ago was for heavy snow this weekend, however as seems to be the pattern this winter it has turned on its head with temperatures rising again. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Ski Guide, so far this season has been notable for the strength of the Azores High and the strength of the Polar Vortex. This can be seen in the very positive NAO so far this year. This has meant milder temperatures and a much more northern storm track with the Azores High shutting out snow for the Pyrenees and Southern Alps. It has also contributed to a very dry season in the US. Up until a day or two ago.
But. There have been changes afoot above us. The polar vortex has been weakening and breaking up in places. This has contributed to the change in pattern in the US I mentioned. Will it lead to a change in pattern here? Maybe. If you look at the Met Office extended outlook on the previous page you'll see it mentions two distinct possibilities for the end of January and the start of February. This is I think the first time the Met Office has mentioned substantial snow in it's look ahead this winter and for that to happen you would really need the Azores High to crumble and high pressure to build to the north. With the weakened Polar Vortex this is possible, but certainly not definite. If it did happen it could also change the pattern and allow snow into Pyrenees and Southern Alps through the Mediterranean. Possibly, but not definitely. The models are struggling to converge on a clear output given the shift from a stable setup. Chopping and changing from run to run. Uncertainty is in the air and maybe snow, later this month or early next...
Best I can do for now. The other possibility is the current pattern continues all winter.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hmmmmm
12z has taken it warmer and dialled back the snow a little for the 3v
I'll quietly ignore that and await the pub run
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
jonathancarty, yes it has a bit for much of the western Alps. Though you'd still see snow. It's going to go up and down a bit over the next couple of days I would have thought.
Here's the SLF for Switzerland.
Persistent danger of full-depth avalanches, otherwise favourable avalanche situation over a wide area
"Trend for Thursday and Friday
Light snow will fall on Thursday. Snow will fall continuously in the north on Friday. It will be sunny in the far south. The snowfall level will temporarily rise to approximately 1700 m on Thursday. The wind will be strong to very strong. The avalanche danger will increase a little on Thursday and significantly in some regions on Friday."
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
ZAMG on the weather ahead of the Hahnenkamm this Saturday.
Kitzbühel und das Wetter – ein spannendes Rennen
- Overnight Thursday into Friday some rain on lower sections.
- Cooling on Friday (Super G) as the snowline falls to the valley.
- By Saturday morning 20cm fresh snow in the valley, 40cms on the mountain.
- For the downhill on Saturday possibly a temporary clearer period.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Here's WRF's take.
Thursday 19 0900 Snowfall arriving in the Arlberg and further east.
Thursday 19 1800 Strengthening and spreading back west.
Friday 20 1500 Reaching into the French Alps.
Saturday 21 1800 Having weakened a little, rebuilding in strength.
Sunday 22 0900 Still going.
It's tricky to get a real gauge of strength. GFS has continued to reduce the strength, others models remain quite bullish. Over the period a fair amount of fresh snow looks like falling though not perhaps with the intensity of some of the earlier storms this winter (it looks persistently strong over the Arlberg). Winds will be high. I would anticipate some lift closures at least.
GFS suggests a further band of snow in the middle of next week.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
nozawaonsen, that must put a fair bit of snow down in the French Alps?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Yes, most of the northern Alps looks like it will see a fair amount of snow. Hard to have much of a sense for how much. It doesn't look as intense as some of the recent snowfall (at this stage). Which given the chaos it caused is possibly no bad thing. Looking the WRF charts it looks more persistent over the Arlberg.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
nozawaonsen, hopefully the snow will continue to fall in Japan despite the polar vortex change as I'm counting the days til I get there!!
Paul Hudson replied to my post on Facebook about the chance of UK snow linking back to the met office with the more sobering words
| Quote: |
| Dont hold your breath! Since met office wrote that models have aligned towards mobile westerlies so any cold snaps short lived and insignificant. For a week up until yesterday models had though been all over the place. Winters like this usually end with a more blocked february but just as likely to be settled and dry as snow and ice. At least you'll have tons of it when u go skiiing! |
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
kitenski, the Met Office update is fairly sanguine about chances, seeing a continuation of the pattern as more likely (not necessarily bad for the northern Alps). Not sure though that I agree with Paul Hudson about the model shift taking place after the Met Office wrote it? Yes the short term models had switched since Sunday's colder position, but I understand the 32 day ECM ensembles which came out Tuesday (and suggested an increased possibility of cold over the UK) play a significant part. And the Met Office would have been well aware of these when they drafted the update as well as the shorter term shift model shift which was clear yesterday morning. Nevertheless the Met Office sees cold as a "significant risk," but not a probability.
06z GFS continues to show snow in the northern Alps will be substantial in places, but not on the scale of recent storms.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
| Quote: |
06z GFS continues to show snow in the northern Alps will be substantial in places, but not on the scale of recent storms.
|
that'll do nicely, thankyou. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Does my untrained eye detect a slightly warmer period coming albeit the wiggles are all over the place?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
kitenski, the only thing I was disagreeing about was whether the Met Office had written their update before or after the models had shifted? I think they wrote it based not on the Sunday 10 day ECM output (which updates twice a day) which was cold, but milder by Tuesday morning, but rather the 32 day ECM ensemble update (which updates twice a week) which came out on Tuesday morning (and was cold) before they updated their 30 day outlook to include the risk of cold on Tuesday lunchtime. It's a bit of an esoteric point.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
Excellent! Just don't snow too much when we're trying to get into resort. An 'ickle bit would be nice for the kids, but not road-blocking amounts.
BTW thanks to all for putting the weather thread together.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
SLF update for Switzerland.
Slightly increasing avalanche danger in north, full depth snowslides continue
- "On Thursday morning, light precipitation will set in. On the northern flank of the Alps only a few centimeters of snowfall is anticipated; in the eastern part of the northern flank of the Alps and in northern Grisons, about 10 cm is expected. The snowfall level is expected to ascend to 1200 to 1600 m. South of the Main Alpine Ridge it will be generally sunny. The westerly to northwesterly wind will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity; on the northern flank of the Alps it will intensify to storm strength over the course of the day."
- "Trend for Friday and Saturday
On both days, snowfall is anticipated; in northern and eastern regions it will be sustained and intermittently intensive. In the furthermost southern regions it will be partly sunny. The northwesterly wind will be blowing at strong to storm velocity. The avalanche danger will rise significantly on Friday. On Saturday in the major regions of participation [?], it may reach danger level "high" (Level 4)."
As far as the polar vortex and Japan goes part of the disrupted vortex spins over towards Hokkaido which should keep things cold and snowy for a while.
GFS 12z +168 (next Wednesday)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hey nozawaonsen, what's the outlook for Chamonix in the next week or so... i'm getting a positive impression from wigglies... anything I'm missing?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Snow pushing into the eastern and central northern Alps this morning. Then picking up along with winds later today and into tomorrow. Temperatures dropping through tomorrow. Quite substantial snowfall in places, particularly tomorrow. The Arlberg seems to be in the thick of it over the next few days. Perhaps slightly less so in Haute Savoie, though there will certainly be some fresh snow.
By Monday it looks cooler in most places. Considerable uncertainty beyond that. GFS wants to bring another band of snow across on Tuesday, ECM less convinced. Beyond that very little consistency.
Here's how the Tirol avalanche warning sees the weather this morning.
"- Alpine Weather Forecast (ZAMG-Weather Service Innsbruck)
Weather in general: a powerful northwesterly air current has reached the Alps. In quick succession, a series of warm and cold fronts will pass through, bringing the northern flank of the Alps heavy precipitation. Mountain weather today: the cloud cover will drop further, the higher peaks will become shrouded in fog and snowfall will commence, which will be rain below 1700 m. From the north towards the south, the amount of precipitation will lessen. In the Southern Alps it is overcast, with diffuse visibility. Strong westerly winds, in the Northern Alps the wind will be stormy.
Short Term Development
Amidst snowfall and stormy northwesterly winds, noticeably escalating avalanche danger"
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Hi Noza, could you cast your expert eye over the Pirin mountain range for Bansko in Bulgaria? Thanks... I know its not the Alps but our departure date is rapidly approaching and you seem to be pretty accurate with your predictions and wiggly reading capabilities xx 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
stewart woodward, Are you planned to race 3rd and 4th of feb, please, please please say yes 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
Stewart please organise some racing in the dolomites!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
What of the pattern change? Still inevitably a lot of uncertainty, but two things today.
- The Friday update to the 32 day ECM ensembles apparently continues to show a shift.
"Latest EC 32 continues its trend with below avg temps and cold/very cold E or NE'lies into early Feb as HP develops to the N and NW.." [Matt Hugo]
- This pattern is picked up in GFS 00z FI.
Here's GFS 00z at +300 (01 February) with snow pushing into the Alps through the Mediterranean (and cold weather pushing in from the east including for the UK).
Whether it happens is not possible to tell at this range, but it's an option that has been cropping up for a while for the end of January, early February.
Closer in snow and high winds pushing into the northern Alps, it looks like it will be quite heavy in a band from Savoie through to Salzburg, particularly tonight into tomorrow accompanied by high winds. Tapering off at the edges.
It will calm down Sunday afternoon into Monday, before a further band of snow hits the same area Tuesday with temperatures dropping quite hard.
The end of the week suggests the possibility of further snowfall around 26/27 January, but this is not yet picking up strong support.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Fruity, I really haven't been paying much attention to that part of Europe. Taking a quick glance at the ensembles this morning it looks like snow tomorrow and possibly the end of the week against a background of slightly above average temperatures.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Meteo France have just upped their forecast for us today - three snowflakes all day today now - changed in the last hour.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Looking at the avalanche bulletin Meteo France suggests 50cms for Beaufortain and Tarentaise, 30cm for Vanoise.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Quote: |
Looking at the avalanche bulletin Meteo France suggests 50cms for Beaufortain
|
I don't know what the system is for updating those avalanche bulletins. Yesterday they predicted 15cms last night (was certainly a bit less than that here) and 50 today. The forecast has been upped a lot this morning, but not the avalanche bulletin.
It's just drizzling at the moment - not even 2 snowflakes, let alone 3. Windy, though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
50cms sounds like a three snowflake type of figure to me. Maybe it was the avalanche bulletin which the other forecast is updating to? Also the fresh snow figures are for 1800m and obviously the amount higher up can be a lot more than that in the valley which I suppose might explain the discrepancy. Obviously the figures are only indicative. You couldn't predict that accurately and even if you could measuring it subsequently presents some challenges too...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
this might be a stupid question and i'll probably get flammed for asking it, but why is it that snow fall is always deeper higher up? If we get a snow fall at 1000m thats say 10cm deep at say -4, there might be 15cm higher up at -9. Do the flakes evaporate or get smaller the further they fall or are they just bigger at colder temperatures?!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
cantridepete, actually, I think that's an interesting question. I suppose one reason is that in many storms the snow level starts fairly high, then drops - so it snows for longer at the top! someone reported rain in Les Gets, this morning, for example. But there's no doubt much more to it than that.
It's certainly chucking it down here now, and windy, so it would certainly be v difficult estimating any "average" figure very accurately. I had planned to go out for a walk on snowshoes but my will is evaporating....
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
haha yeah, i planned on going up saint gervais this afternoon, but like you, i'm being seduced by a warm fire and hot chocolate!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
cantridepete, I'm making fruit bread again. This time have included some fresh apple chopped small, and pecan nuts. If it snowed like this more often I'd get v fat! I wish I had a fire, but not possible in this little apartment. Being inside, cooking something tasty and looking out at the snow falling so hard is one of my favourite ways of spending a winter day. There are a few other favourite ways of spending one, too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Certainly chucking it down sideways in les Menuires at the moment. 3 valley links closed. Ski ing from the top of Becca was very interesting earlier.... very very windy. The week has been wonderful, the snow just magic, and with the new stuff everyone should have a good time who arrives tomorrow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
but it seems to be a trend
