 Poster: A snowHead
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Aha. Thanks for the correction Rob.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mont Blanc tunnel closed until preventive avalanches can be set off, a hundred tourists put up for the night in a gym in BSM. Thousands of homes without electricity - not mine, thankfully.
They'll probably get many of the blocked roads open during the day, and maybe tomorrow's transfers won't be too badly affected in the French Alps, though there'll probably still be a fair few lift closures - still high winds today as well as the snow.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Kiters, mr_merc, depends what you are worrying about? The GFS op run keeps it mild and probably sunny with high pressure in charge. The control run and a number of the ensembles takes it much colder and would bring further snow. There has been a weak suggestion of colder and more unsettled weather returning from mid month for a while now, but quite when and indeed if is slipping about from run to run.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Stopped worrying last night when I was reading Steve's report in Val - Im just happy to be seeing some white stuff this year... 
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When was the lst time, we saw conditions like this across such a wide expanse of the Alps, seems to be Aus, Sui and Fra mainly
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| Quote: |
mr_merc
user
Posts: 14
Hi
I go out to portes du soleil on 14 January and am startin to get very concerned by the latest ensemble. Am I being stupid or will the warm weather bug it up for us in chatel/ PDS?
Ensemble here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
Thanks to Noza for such excellent reports to date
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I am going out on the 31st, personally i am hoping it does warm up a bit. Perfect conditions would be a small sprinkling overnight and blue sky's during the day but as you can't always have everything the next best thing in my opinion is great pistes and great visibility. I went last year and the lack of snow meant petit chatel and super chatel were 90% closed due to green grass but the rest of the PdS was open and pistes were in fantastic condition throughout kept alive by artificial snow. We had a great time.
This year we have had about 2-3m more snow then last year and it is still going to snow for another 3-4 days at least. Your main worry is too much snow rather than warm weather. By the time you go in a few days time there will still be several foot of snow and if it warms up a bit and you get great visibility you will have timed it perfectly.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looking at WRF over the next few days.
Noon today The most intense snowfall is now over Switzerland and Western Austria as it starts to clear France.
6pm Saturday Having cleared duringt he day the snowfall builds up again particularly in western Austria.
3pm Sunday Snow much of the day in the eastern Alps.
6pm Monday Lighter during the day, but building up in the evening (particularly in the eastern Alps)
Fading out Tuesday through Austria.
From midweek temperatures will be much milder, but with clear nights and sunny days, there could still be quite low overnight temperatures. Should be very pleasant.
The following weekend still remains somewhat uncertain. Earlier signals for a shift to much colder weather seem to have been at best postponed, that isn't to say that a number of the ensembles (including the control) don't support it, but there is much less certainty in the operational runs.
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Morning all.
Thanks for the comments.
I appreciate that I'm being a bit greedy as last year the only reason that the GM had any snow was because of artificial cannons. This year we have a cracking covering.
I guess my concern is more that it warms significantly during next week and when we get there, there will be hard pack and ice, rather than any decent snow to board on. I have had holidays where it's snowed significantly, but conditions have been slushy, or worse icy so previous snow is not really an indication to me of good conditions.
Either way I can't change it, but after the amazing conditions we have had, it would be just my luck to get out there the week they worsen!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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mr_merc, or you could be there now unable to ski because the snow has shut the resort down. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Noza, you are absolutely right. I'm being a plank 
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The western Alps got 30 - 80cm overnight.
The eastern Alps got 30 - 100cm overnight.
Very windy.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
the only reason that the GM had any snow was because of artificial cannons.
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I doubt very much whether that is the case. For much of the season it was far too warm to blow snow, anyway. It did fall from the sky, just not in great quantity. We spent most of the season in a nearby resort and I can assure you that many pistes where there is no artificial snow cover were open, and skiable, for much of the time.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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From what I can tell from my fairly limited knowledge (mostly picked up from this thread!), current GFS still showing calm for Saturday 14th but ECM showing a little more unsettled?? Is that roughly correct?
Flying into Chambery and then going on to Val Thorens so starting to take an interest in the potential for things being shut down or whatever.
Obviously I know far too early to take it too seriously, etc etc., just seeing what the potential is looking like at the moment.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, Purely selfishly, now the Sella Ronda has some snow, any idea what the temp will be like week commencing 14th Jan. Many thanks
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| bobmcstuff wrote: |
From what I can tell from my fairly limited knowledge (mostly picked up from this thread!), current GFS still showing calm for Saturday 14th but ECM showing a little more unsettled?? Is that roughly correct?
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Appears to be the case, yes. GFS seems quite calm for w/c 14 Jan, but ECM is predicting what Noza said a couple of pages ago - the polar vortex to drop down and produce some bitter temperatures around 17 January.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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afternoon guys!
anyone know some good places to look for forecasts for UTAH coming up. just off there for 2 weeks at the end of the month and im already getting the snow hunger!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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PLEASE send some of the lovely white stuff across Italy!!
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It's puking it at bergeralm! About 20 cm's since I arrived at 2 pm. I am just about to go night skiing. When I asked if it was open tonight they laughed and said of course "it's snowing"!
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| adam.b wrote: |
| PLEASE send some of the lovely white stuff across Italy!! |
We're off to selva tomorrow morning, so will let you know how it's fairing
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It looks clearer tomorrow morning, building up in the east from lunch, with snow showers in the evening in the west. Beyond that heavy snow continuing into the central and eastern Alps through to early on Tuesday.
Weather clearing up rapidly in the west, with blue skies and sun increasingly likely. In the east it will take till midweek before clear weather really sets in. Under clear skies daytime temepratures will rise quickly. Nighttime temperatures will fall.
From mid month the chances of a return to colder and snowier weather are increasing, though still with a lot of uncertainty.
Weekly round up from SLF.
Schnee, schnee, schnee
- Rare to see these amounts of snow in December.
- Snowfall well above average, except on the southern side of the Alps.
- During December snowfall in the northern Alps two to four times the average.
This evening's SLF update.
High avalanche danger widespread
- "On Friday night, the precipitation is expected to slacken off and bright intervals will follow. Over the course of the day on Saturday, snowfall will again set in widespread".
- "On Sunday, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps... intense precipitation can once again be expected, accompanied by storm velocity northwesterly winds. On Monday, light snowfall is still anticipated in northern regions... The avalanche situation will remain tense."
Looking to the US.
Is there any hope?
[biggest December on record in Valdez]
Putting things in perspective.
Snowpack sketchy in the west.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Much clearer everywhere this morning, but with more snow just around the corner for the central and eastern Alps.
Here's ZAMG. Avalanche situation is critical, high danger widespread. http://lawine.tirol.gv.at/english/
- "... the peril far and wide is high."
- "... conditions will improve for a brief interim this morning."
- "The next round of precipitation will be launched Saturday afternoon and extend until Monday bringing an additional 40-80cms of snowfall."
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It is interessting that the southern alps have had a relatively below average start to the season.
With slight lull in the weather next week i hope thes second half of January proves more snowy for the Sourthern Alps 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Don't think the southern alps is noza's speciality !
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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This NOAA chart shows precipitation against normal for December 2011.
You can clearly see the arc from the French Alps round to the Arlberg and western Tirol which has had substantially higher snowfall so far this season.
You can also see how most of Italy has been exceptionally dry. Parts of the Aosta Valley and the Southern Tirol have benefited from snow spilling over from the north. Further south though has seen considerably less snowfall this season.
In the coming week it looks like there will be some snow for those places right up close to the Austrian border over the next couple of days, otherwise it looks very sunny.
As I mentioned a while back this is down to the strength and position of the Azores high which has effectively locked out any low pressure systems from pushing through the Mediterranean and instead forced in down through the northern Alps. This can also be seen in the very positive NAO and AO this year compared to the very negative value for last year. There is a possibility that we could see something of a change of pattern in the second half of this month, but whether that happens, and whether we move into a set up which allows more snow into the Southern Alps remains to be seen.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Tue 17-01-12 12:46; edited 2 times in total
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
You can also see how most of Italy has been exceptionally dry. Parts of the Aosta Valley and the Southern Tirol have benefited from snow spilling over from the north. Further south though has seen considerably less snowfall this season.
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Great map noza, not an epic start south of the watershed, good to see the Sella Ronda, South Tyrol & Ampezzo Dolomites are above average for Dec, though they are notoriously one of the driest parts of the Alpine chain on average.
The 20-30 cm snow this week that spilled over from the north looks to have freshened things up a lot round there and given a powdery grippy natural surface to the artificial base.
Hoping for some nice sunny skiing in Arabba next week, while the resorts in the Austrian Tyrol are on high avalanche alert!! Just as long as they can keep Innsbruck airport open tomorrow!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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luigi, I wonder about that. I'm not too sure that the Sella Ronda is really above average, although it has benefited from some recent snow. I'd be wary of treating that sort of map too exactly. Would be interested to hear what you reckon when you get out there.
As you say it remains a tricky start to the season in parts of Italy. Slightly further south, but this link allows some comparisons with previous years in the Trentino.
Still there is snow, the scenery is stunning, the food and wine great and the sun should be shining.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting things happening in the 12z runs this evening beyond mid month.
Before that though some photographs from the Tirol Avalanche blog of avalanche activity in the Tirol where military reconnaissance flights have been assisting the assessments.
Here's SLF's updated bulletin.
Considerable avalanche danger
- "By Sunday evening in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps, in northern Grisons and in the Lower Engadine, 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is anticipated; in the Glarner Alps, about 50 cm."
- "On Monday, the snowfall will continue only in the eastern regions. In inneralpine and southern regions, it will be predominantly sunny."
Looking at this evening's models. Snowfall looks like building up this evening and continuing strong all through Sunday in the central and eastern Alps. It looks like continuing, slightly less heavily through Monday and light slow into early Tuesday in Austria.
In the western Alps it will start clearing up from tomorrow with much of the coming week looking like it will be under clear, blue and increasingly sunny skies. In the sun it will get increasingly mild midweek, though with clear skies expect cold nights (and a strong melt refreeze).
By Friday it currently looks like the mildest temperatures will have subsided in the east and by Sunday it looks probable that it will be cooling across the Alps.
From mid month though it's worth underlining how uncertain the outlook is. This evening's output has tended to suggest deep cold could be pushing in from the east, whilst low pressure could pushes in from the Mediterranean. Certainly interesting and both GFS and ECM operational runs produced variations on the theme. However, starkly different options for the second half of January have been being produced for the last few days. It will be interesting to see if this one picks up support through tomorrow.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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thanks for all your updates . if this weeks forecast come true . slightly warmer then cold next weekend , would that make the snow more stable? ie , thaw -freeze cycle. heading to mayrhofen next sat and getting slightly worried  . hope everyone out there stays safe.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Interesting things happening in the 12z runs this evening beyond mid month.
From mid month though it's worth underlining how uncertain the outlook is. This evening's output has tended to suggest deep cold could be pushing in from the east, whilst low pressure could pushes in from the Mediterranean. Certainly interesting and both GFS and ECM operational runs produced variations on the theme. However, starkly different options for the second half of January have been being produced for the last few days. It will be interesting to see if this one picks up support through tomorrow. |
Given the last three weeks in the Northern Alps I know many would like a few more bluebird days and this is pretty much guaranteed in the short term but in the medium term I dont want a prolonged european high.
Please keep up the good work and keep us updated on any interesting developments.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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tim000, the high and very high avalanche risk (which is causing roads and lifts to be shut down) is likely to diminish during the week. Although those areas where it is still snowing through Sunday (central Alps, Austria, parts of Italy near the Austrian border possibly down to the Dolomites) and Monday will inevitably take longer. In broad terms the melt refreeze cycle does tend to consolidate the existing snow pack.
It's been snowing in Utah too.
"Finally we're getting some snow!" [Utah Ski Weather]
18z continued to suggest a pattern change in FI, this one perhaps not quite as cold as the 12z run, but snowier. Let's see how it looks tomorrow (and whether it has begun to settle around a particular pattern).
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Well unless something changes overnight, any snowfall falling over Austria tonight looks like being restricted to areas between Innsbruck and Salzburg. I can't see anything on the radar currently to suggest any snow for the Arlberg or Western Tyrol region. This looks to be completely at odds with the GFS precipitation charts for tonight and tomorrow.
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Never too sure what people mean when they refer to radar. Which site are you looking at? As far as I can see, it looks like it will be a little lighter overnight before it picks up tomorrow. Could be wrong of course.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Noz, I was referring to the Meteox rainfall radar site. To be honest I don't know how accurate the site is. Anyway this morning shows the snow falling heavier across most areas.
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Neuschnee und Wind - wieder in Kombination
- 20 to 40cms overnight in Silvretta, Arlberg and Außerfern. 20 to 30cms in the rest of the northern Alps.
- Very strong winds overnight.
- ZAMG forecast is for further snow during the day, particularly Arlberg/Außerfern, possibly 40cm.
jimmybog, certainly looks like it snowed through the night. If you look at the Meteogroup archive you can see plenty of snow coming in overnight (it doesn't really cover Austria, but you get the picture).
On a separate note ZAMG has quite a nice animation. You can see by Monday and Tuesday the focus is further to the east in Austria (though potentially could return at times to the Arlberg).
The best radar for the Arlberg is the Valluga one.
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