 Poster: A snowHead
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phillip33
user
Posts: 405
Location: canterbury
I have to say now I,m just two weeks from departure I wish I was going this weekend, the forecasts ( wiggles) all seem to be heading in the wrong direction for me, temps up and not much sign of snow, they have been quite consistent for a few days now for the end of the runs, hope there wrong which of course they could be this far out, but they have been consistent for a while, and what has often been said on this thread by people a lot more in the know than me, you look for trends
Feeling a bit half empty tonite, but at least my glass isn't !! All set for strictly I bet brucie comes off the bench and clears up!
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Christ, you are hard to please aren't you?
We had a drought last year and then this year the driest autumn in 150 years. Suddenly its gone completely crazy and 2 meters come down in 5 days, there is another meter coming in the next 5-6 days. The resorts are closed due to avalanche risk, white outs and closed roads so probably the most frustrating week off the season. You are going out there as soon as it brightens up, the temp goes up, the visibility is excellent and 3 meters of snow to ski on.
What else do you want?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This evening's GFS operational pumps up the potential snowfall on 21/22 December even further. It certainly has strong support, but not quite to the extent that the operational run is suggesting. So we'll see.
Either way it looks like further heavy snow at altitude (snow line 1500-1800m+) in the northern Alps around the middle of next week. It looks like this will be stronger further north in the French Alps and indeed strongest in Switzerland and eastern Austria.
After a mild end to the week, temperatures look like possibly cooling steeply on Christmas eve and bringing snow, stronger in the eastern Alps.
At present although it's a long way out there have been some suggestions that temperatures will rise above average after Christmas before cooling down with the possibility for further snow around 28/29 December. But that's with very low confidence indeed.
SLF incidentally suggests that between Thursday morning and Saturday evening parts of the Valais had 120 to 170 cm above 2000m.
Meteo France suggests 150cm at 1800m in the last five days (100cm of which fell in 36 hours) and 200cm at 2500m in the Haute Tarentaise.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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mheadbee,
Brucie to win strictly, and my glass to remain as full as possible !!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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phillip33, count yourself lucky you aren't going to the southern Italian Alps!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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pam w,
Brucie too , right it's started strictly that is , crispy duck and a cold glass of wine , who needs snow !
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mheadbee, phillip33 has not had the years of watching Brentford that you and I have had to manage expectations. Having said that I'm out in Saalbach in January and snowforecast is predicting a Noahs Ark like downpour for 23 Dec. Hope they are wrong.
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phillip33, count yourself lucky you aren't going to the southern Italian Alps!
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oh...thanks for that!
wait until its our turn!! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Couple of interesting pieces on the current conditions in the US.
Where's the snow and when's it coming? [Joel Gratz]
"... it’s now about two months into the 2011/2012 ski season, and for much of the United States, there haven’t been many “next storms” to talk about.
On the bright side, many areas are still taking advantage of the typical cold December temperatures and making a good amount of snow. And Alaska is seeing a ton of snow, plus after a dry early season, big snowstorms are now hitting the Alps in Europe and their season is really picking up."
Finding Snow [Jim Steenburgh]
"The snow situation is below average across much of the west and is incredibly grim in the Sierra Nevada."
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| pjd wrote: |
| mheadbee, phillip33 years of watching Brentford. |
Oh dear!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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18z run incidentally tones down the snowfall/rain in the middle of next week quite substantially. Brings down the freezing temperature for mid week too, or at least in comparison to some recent runs (though Scotland continues to look very mild for a few days).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Can we cut the crap out of this thread please.........
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On lake Geneva, the snow/rain limit has fallen. In Evian, it's roughly at 450 meters and it's now snowing by the lake side. Definitely a winter day here in this part of Switzerland. I'm in Morges now.
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You know it makes sense.
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GFS continues to reign in the more extreme operational runs of late. That has the impact of reducing the potential amount of snow falling midweek (still looks reasonable for many parts of the northern Alps), but increasing the chances it will fall as snow rather than rain.
Still looks like a mild end to the week, but with the possibility of temperatures dropping on Christmas Eve and light snow in the eastern Alps.
Beyond that FI is suggesting the likelihood if a milder, calmer spell, but obviously with all the caveats that apply.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, What's the outlook for Scotland's west coast over the next week or so? Due up there 27-30th and wondering if it will be worth skiing or not? I know they have had loads of snow but temps are due to rise with rain forecast on the summits I think next week?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ricklovesthepowder, Scotland looks like it will have really a rather mild period in the second half of the week. Obviously the week after is too far to tell, but there is a fairly good possibility of snow around Christmas eve/day. Before temperatures rise to fall again around 28 December? But far too far off for any confidence.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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06z punches up the snowfall 21/22 in the Eastern Alps. Will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles and the freezing level.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's hammering down with snow in Les Arcs, again. Was this forecast? I thought today was meant to be reasonably clear?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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rob@rar, must admit it looked to me like it was going to pick up again during today. Monday looks likely to bring clearer spells, particularly by the afternoon.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, thanks. Not that I'm complaining of course 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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High pressure looms large for the alps, northern side anyway, not good, and we know how stubborn those high pressures can be, hope there,s enough snow to last until I,m out in the new year! Noza what's the ECM graphs showing , the same ?
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| High pressure looms large for the alps, northern side anyway, not good, and we know how stubborn those high pressures can be, hope there,s enough snow to last until I,m out in the new year! Noza what's the ECM graphs showing , the same ? |
You think it's all going to melt within a week? Have you ever been skiing before?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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phillip33, no offence, but as someone mentioned yesterday there has been a huge amount of snowfall over the last couple of weeks. High pressure may bring some clearer and milder conditions to enjoy it in. High pressure can be stubborn so can the Atlantic.
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pam w, Les Arcs is reporting 320cm at 3,000m.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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rob@rar, the Beaufortain doesn't have any slopes (or indeed any mountains) as high as that - it's a low, but very snowy massif.
I wish I was a more competent off piste skier - the conditions are superlative and there are some good safe options round here.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Love it, what a reaction !! Like shelling cliches , off to church now with family to sing Xmas carols and throw the odd prayer in regarding snow forecasts ! Noza and robrar I will pray for you too that a sense of humour comes to your house this christmas !
Just joking
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rob@rar,
Re skiing, not as much as you, but 3 times a year for the 15 years , thanks again for the picture made my night
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You know it makes sense.
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phillip33, sorry, it was just a trend of inanity from you in this thread I thought you might be an inexperienced skier who genuinely thought all this snow will melt within a week. Apologies for intruding in to your little game.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen,
Never take offence from you, unless you don't talk to me! But I can guess why you dont
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Poster: A snowHead
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Maybe one day we can all meet up then you might realise I,m not the complete #rsehole that I am on this thread
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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phillip33, the trouble with constant fishing trips is that sooner or later people stop responding to you. That would be a shame, no?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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We finally got out on the mountain today to do some avalanche observation. About 2m of snow observed at at 1950m around Brevent. It is consolidating nicely fro what we can see so if the snow ever stops and we get a few days of clear weather it could turn into a very decent base indeed and really set up the season. In a short clearing of the weather the mountains look absolutely plastered. Never seen chamonix looking like this.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Belting down with snow again. Almost unbelievable!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I heard it referred to as a 50 year storm, but think that might be an exaggeration, let's see what next week brings 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Looks like 12z has the high over Spain moving a little further east and pushing next Tues / Weds snow that way too
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rob@rar,
During a lusty rendition of " hark the herald" I have seen the light, going to change my user name !
Merry Xmas
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Now the dust has settled, here is a summary of the past week's snowfall in the European Alps:
France and western Switzerland got the most snowfall. About 10cm to 40cm at 1000m, and 100cm to 200cm at 2500m.
Eastern Switzerland, Germany, Italy and Austria received about 10cm to 40cm at 1000m, and 40cm to 100cm at 2500m.
France and western Switzerland now have a little more snow than the historical average.
Most of the rest of the Alps remains a little below-average.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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adam.b, I'm heading that way too - feeling more than a little left out! It will come I'm sure. Thanks for the continuing info weather people!
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WRF currently suggests overnight snow will push through the French Alps by 11am or so, leaving a clearer afternoon.
However, by Tuesday morning the next snow looks like arriving
Tuesday 20 December 9am.
And potentially continues through 21 December intensifying on Thursday in the east [edit: 18z GFS operational again goes strong on this without much support, so I'd be cautious].
Thursday 22 December noon.
By the end of the week temperatures continue to look like rising (this evening's 18z GFS suggests not as high as some recent runs) and by 23 December it would be much milder than of late, especially in the western Alps. Cooler again over Christmas, possibly snowing in the eastern Alps, before growing milder once more from Boxing Day.
Although the pattern across the Alps is certainly far from uniform (the east and particularly parts of the south are still in deficit) it is interesting to see quite how much of an impact the recent rainfall had in parts of the western Alps.
Bourg St Maurice 90 day precipitation
Even with the exceptionally dry weather over autumn the intense rain and snow of the last few days has managed to push the 90 day line above average.
On a slight digression here's an interesting article on the October snowfall in the US.
The October snow blitz: What made "Snowtober" so unusual?
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