 Poster: A snowHead
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Timmaah, very tricky to know exactly. Looks pretty violent to me morning into middle of the day. Keep an eye on Met Office severe weather forecast (link above). Might be worth contacting ferry company.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| [b]Might be worth contacting ferry company. |
and booking the chunnel!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| shoogly wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| [b]Might be worth contacting ferry company. |
and booking the chunnel! |
+1
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Timaah - same as you: meant to be on a ferry Friday night. Thinking that it won't sail, and when we do get to the Alps, snowstorms will prevent resort access!
Bad times. Still, at least it's better than nosnow, right? RIGHT?
*sigh*
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Timmaah,
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when is it meant to be stormy on Friday?
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The various forecasts on Windguru (for Dover) suggest its going to be gusting above 30 knots (F7) pretty much throughout the 24 hours on Friday - some show it peaking earlier in the day, some later, with gusts reaching 45 knots (F9) at times. Either way, if it has been blowing that strong all day from due West, funnelling up the channel, it's going to be pretty rough by the evening. Stugeron might be called for.....
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nozawaonsen,
GFS is showing after this weekend a prolonged cold and dry period, good for consolidating the snowfalls this weekend but not good for the new year crowd ( me) what's ECM saying? Cheers
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Harry Flashman, hah ya.. typical isn't it! Hopefully the ferries can manage.. I can deal with a bit of sea sickness.. (says that now..)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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[18z pushes the low further south on Friday, which if it happened that way would reduce winds in the channel and marginally increase the chance of snow in the south of England, but the track of the low continues to shift back and forth]
Snow arriving in the French Alps early Thursday morning.
Should continue through much of the day, fading a little in the afternoon, evening. Before returning in force from around midnight Thursday.
Here it how WRF thinks it might look midday on Friday.
Looking at this evening's models. Beyond Saturday:
- A fair amount of uncertainty.
- Strong likelihood of a spell of substantially colder weather.
- Possibilities around the 20/21 December. 12z had this as primarily an Austrian affair. 18z brings snow across the Alps. Interesting, but a while away yet.
Also SWF have put an update out covering tomorrow in Switzerland.
Considerable avalanche danger in western regions
- "By Thursday evening in the western part of the northern flank of the Alps and in the Valais, 10 to 20 cm of snowfall is expected; in the furthermost western regions, as much as 30 cm of fresh fallen snow from place to place; elsewhere less... The snowfall level will drop down to about 800 m."
- "On Friday, precipitation will become more intense again, particularly in northern and western regions. The westerly wind will be blowing at storm velocity. The avalanche danger is expected to increase, in western regions especially strikingly. On Saturday, the winds will shift to northerly and temperatures are expected to drop noticeably. The precipitation will thereby shift its focus to the north. "
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Interesting to see how the 30 day precipitation figures are starting to look in places.
Bourg St Maurice
Santis
In both places these are now slightly over average, even given the bone dry conditions for half the period under consideration (and ahead of the likely precipitation over the coming few days). This pattern would not be the same in the southern Alps though who would still be looking at quite a deficit.
Looking at the 10 day precipitation outlook you can see in the third panel that much of the northern Alps is expecting 3 to 6 times the average weekly amount of precipitation in the coming week, before it currently looks like tailing off. It's based on the 00z GFS so beyond 5 days needs a fair amount of caution.
Just at that five plus days point there continue to be suggestions that further snowfall might move into the eastern Alps in particular around 21 December.
Beyond this there are suggestions of a slightly milder period in the western Alps in the run up to Christmas, but it's too far out to be sure.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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[latest runs have slightly downgraded winds in the channel for tomorrow, not saying they won't be strong, but look less violent than they were- still going to be tricky journey across France and up into the French alps, with heavy rain, snow as you climb and strong winds]
The 06z GFS introduces some interesting options beyond the heavy snowfall tomorrow and over the weekend:
- Further snowfall (not as heavy as tomorrow's) on 20/21 December and a second band on 22 December. Mostly focussed in the Eastern Alps.
- After some very cold temperatures early next week
- Slightly milder around 23 December, before cold conditions return.
- A snowy FI, particularly in the eastern Alps.
Here's a piece by the Met Office on La Nina.
Double dip for La Niña this winter
Which is currently at 0.87 [BOM] so weak La Nina.
And forecast to stay around there until April.
Nino 3.4 SST anomalies [CFS]
Meanwhile over in Utah still waiting for things to kick in.
Perspectives on early season snowpack.
In terms of comparing this season and last in Europe it's worth looking at the NAO/AO.
In particular look at the NAO/AO for the last two winters which both had notably cold Decembers.
In contrast we have currently got a very positive NAO and AO. Almost as positive as last year was negative. Whilst this weather pattern is not producing extreme cold across the Alps (or the rest of Europe), it is so far producing substantial snow fall from the north west (which tends to see the southern Alps caught in a rain shadow).
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Love these reports Noza, keep them coming!
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Is the current snow in the Trois Vallees due to pause before tomorrow's big storm comes through? It's belting down at the moment (albeit with very high wind at altitude), so if this continues until Saturday morning it's going to be impressive!
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You know it makes sense.
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rob@rar, i'm packing my snorkel for Grands Montets tomorrow 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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rob@rar, looks like it might lighten off a little this evening. Before building up for tomorrow which is the main event. Friday should be pretty serious.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Arno wrote: |
| rob@rar, i'm packing my snorkel for Grands Montets tomorrow |
if it opens
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Arno, would be slightly surprised. With the very heavy snowfall and high winds avalanche risk will be severe.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| Is the current snow in the Trois Vallees due to pause before tomorrow's big storm comes through? It's belting down at the moment (albeit with very high wind at altitude), so if this continues until Saturday morning it's going to be impressive! |
You are a jammy sod Mr Rees, (although an early finisher) I claim first tracks for Feb!!
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nozawaonsen, yup - shut today, it seems so with even more snow and wind tomorrow, the prospects probably aren't great  wonder if les contamines will open. it is due to so guess it depends on how things play out there
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Arno, trees at le Tour?? Les Houches?? Or what's that bolt hole near to Verbier with lots of sheltered skiing???
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kitenski, lifts won't be open at either on tomorrow (due to be on Saturday) and can't see the Col des Montets being open tomorrow
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This is a webcam from La Tania, 1300m??? DUMPING!
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Arno, Skins my friend, skins! Or a road trip to the mighty La Rosiere.......
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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kitenski, LOL! I'm not sure how much skiing we'll get tomorrow, but I'm in Les Arcs next week so things should have settled a little by then (and the sun makes a return) so can't complain  It's snowing very hard now. If this isn't the main event I'm getting a bit alarmed!
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rob@rar, main event still to come! I'm watching the Radar and a huge burst of dark blue is about 3-4 hours west of you, and looks about 6 hours long!
Good Luck to those out there or trying to get out/home this weekend 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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red 27, we've decided to go out and buy extra provisions (beer mainly) just in case we're stuck in the apartment tomorrow.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski, indeed. If that verifies (and it's been looking along those lines for a while now) then today really is just an appetiser.
It could be about to go Japanese.
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You know it makes sense.
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Arno, Cant decide if I am jealous of you or not!
Black flags all over tomorrow -
how log are you out there for?
champex coud be all time by saturday morning, but as you say getting there might be a problem
La Giettaz would be my bet (if open) and snowline drops low.... great tree skiing there.
Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Thu 15-12-11 17:11; edited 1 time in total
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, The runs all seem in pretty broad agreement from my very limited knowledge, don't they?
chamonix meteo have 85cm as a min, 135cm as a max 
TODAY - THURSDAY DECEMBER 15 2011
PRECIPITATION : showers in the morning - temporary lull towards the middle of the day - then resuming showers - rain-snow limit towards 1000 m - expected snowfall towards 1500 m : 15-25 cm, windblown.
OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION : continuous - light at first, then moderate to heavy - rain-snow limit towards 1000 m, rising up towards 1500 m - expected snowfall towards 1800 m : 30-50 cm, windblown.
FRIDAY DECEMBER 16
PRECIPITATION : heavy in the morning - showers in the afternoon, moderate to heavy - rain-snow limit towards 1500 m until noon, then dropping towards 900 m towards the latter part of the afternoon - expected snowfall towards 1800 m : 40-60 cm, windblown.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Thu 15-12-11 16:43; edited 1 time in total
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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i've been to tignes for the past 2 years. This year i decide to go to Cervinia and Tignes gets a pasting. Hope some of it can sneak over the matterhorn and avoid the rain shadow that was being talked about
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the wind and snowfall forecasts seem to point to quite an alarming avalanche risk over the next few days. Everyone going mad for their first turns of the season: got a bad feeling about this one
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Frosty the Snowman, could be, in which case bloody brace up - I've got 15 years on you! 
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Pedantica, but in wear n tear I have 15 on you 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Frosty the Snowman, nah, bet I've worked my brain (which actually seems to be the main problem here) harder than you've worked yours. 
(Apologies for thread drift, everybody.)
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norris, out until wednesday. doing an AIARE course over the weekend. like you say, 10 days ago I was wondering whether there would be enough snow for us to have anything to look at!
not many places seem to be open tomorrow which is the issue. Seems to be (realistically) between Grands Montets and Les Contamines. Skinning is a possibility but if it is a black flag day, might be a day to sit in the bar or go and annoy Smallzookeeper
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