Fri and Sat looking peachy for PDS...l just hope the freezing levels quoted in SnowForecast are overstated.
Interested from the experts how much confidence is building for a good dump at the weekend or is the forecast at risk of fizzling out.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow forecast.com has removed the rain now for ste foy so fingers crossed
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
can anybody tell me what, if any, effect the forthcoming weather fronts in the alps will have on the pyrenees? arriving in 3 weeks and a bit more white stuff on the ground would make me feel a bit better
addo1, on the current output the Pyrenees should see some fairly light snow showers this weekend. Slightly stronger further west.
Snowforecast.com is fine for what it does. But given it is 3 to 5 hours behind GFS and only then a representation of the operational run I think perhaps that is enough said.
The chances of a fairly large snowfall at altitude this weekend at the western end of the Alps is fairly strong. I wouldn't be too focussed on the precise freezing level or the exact amount that will fall, it's simply too chaotic this far out. Some of the amounts coming out on the operational runs are quite high, so I would treat these with some caution. But either way as Brian said the actual snow level, especially during heavy snowfall can be some way below the freezing level.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, thanks for that, i know there is plenty of time for things to change and therefore dont take forecasts too far ahead as gospel. hopefully those "showers" for this weekend will at the very least make the webcams look a bit whiter!
now blowing a steady 9 here, and we just had a Force 11 gust..... My kitchen, which faces the wind, is like the bridge of a ship!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
addo1, three weeks ago the Alps were green. Plenty of time for things to shift in the Pyrenees.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Local forecasts are suggesting the mother of all storms is on its way for the Northern French Alps this weekend. 20+ cm of snow in gva on Sat and Sun. All looking good now for Xmas.
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Quote:
20+ cm of snow in gva on Sat and Sun.
that much snow would probably shut Geneva airport - I've known it shut by half that.
- [After an extended dry period, 45 days for Innsbruck the longest dry period on record] it started to snow on 05 December.
- Snowfall was particularly strong in the typical Nordstau areas (Arlberg and Außerfern).
- From 05 to noon on 07 December Ulmerhutte (in the Arlberg) saw an increase in snow height of nearly 100cm.
- Strong winds from the northwest.
The 18z continues the same pattern as recent runs. Further snow across the Alps on Wednesday into Thursday. And again, though quite a bit heavier, particularly in the Northern French Alps on Friday into Saturday. Freezing levels at the weekend look fine to me on this run. And it goes much colder for the start of the next week.
Good timing for a long weekend in western Switzerland then
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Sharkymark, or a week even. I felt somewhat vindicated and rather smug today for booking a heavily discounted deal a whole week ago when I checked iglu, chaletline & crystal & found their remaining coming weekend Verbier weeks had gone back to near enough book price ... and those were for mostly make your own way there 'packages'.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Sharkymark wrote:
Good timing for a long weekend in western Switzerland then
If you can get there!!!!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
moffatross, even better Think we may try Morgins on Fri and then Verbier, Leysin and others over the weekend, or wherever Phototim gets 2 for 1.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Sooo tempted to head up this weekend. Head up Friday, ski Saturday and until Sunday lunchtime then head home. What's glenshee like ATM?
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Ricklovesthepowder, last report from Glenshee was:
Quote:
It's dumping
Ya dancer
I guess you could surmise from that that there might just be some big fat snowflakes around the place
Looks like we're in for another 24 hours of heavy snow in Scotland
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Bring it on.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowfall in the Alps over the next five days, particularly in the French Alps, looks likely to be substantial. A metre of snow is not impossible at present in parts of the French Alps, much of it on Friday. Obviously the exact amount will vary and may well change between now and then, but it does look like a large snowfall is on the way.
Here is a very rough guide.
Parts of Austria also seeing nearly two foot in places (which would normally be noteworthy in itself), the Aosta valley just catching some (though less for much of Italy) and a foot in western Scotland.
It is worth underlining how disruptive it could be, particularly in parts of the French Alps, if snow did fall in that sort of quantity, both in terms of heavy rain lower down and heavy snow higher up. It would also of course send avalanche risk right up and would doubtless lead to some closures whilst the teams worked to stabalise the slopes.
But it would of course bring some fantastic conditions.
The main storm track for Friday continues to look like it could be focussed on the Channel. Possible strong winds in southern England.
Looking a little further ahead the middle of next week has been cropping up a bit recently.
Here it is on ECM.
Obviously a long way off, and anything beyond Friday's storm is complicated. But worth keeping a watch to see how it looks this evening.
book a last minute eurotunnel to be safe...................if the ferry is running the last thing you ll feel like doing is driving ten hours after getting sea sick!!!!!!!!!!
good luck
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:
Snowforecast.com is fine for what it does. But given it is 3 to 5 hours behind GFS and only then a representation of the operational run I think perhaps that is enough said.
Are there any snow forecast sites that take more than that into account so are slightly more rounded and likely to be more accurate? I tend to read this then look at snowforecast.com to see the red numbers, a more accurate site would be of more use.
Thanks
After all it is free
After all it is free
mheadbee, the forecast generation engines that extrapolate data from GFS are probably about as accurate as you'll get in the public domain and their lag / inconsistency just reflects that in the GFS data itself. I like the xcweather engine which is good for chez moi but can also be use for any worldwide location for a 'resort level' forecast ...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
mheadbee, IMHO your best understanding the GFS Model, then you can see wether the various runs are in agreement or not, which can give you a higher confidence factor (or not...)
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
mheadbee, IMHO your best understanding the GFS Model, then you can see wether the various runs are in agreement or not, which can give you a higher confidence factor (or not...)
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I'd always assumed there was some sort of built in lag to snowforecast.com perhaps for licensing reasons. It updates to 00z at 0900. Three hours after the ensembles are out, four after the wz meteograms and only 30 mins before 06z starts rolling out.
Anyway as Moffatross wisely points out, Faustian pacts or anything similar are in general worth avoiding...
06z keeps it snowy.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And they are both very unforgiving....................................................
brian
brian Guest
James the Last, the 500 hPa height (in decametres). From which it is possible to calculate "thickness" of the atmosphere, which gives a rough guide to the average temperature of an airmass.
height(in dm) + 0.8(1000 - SLP)
Well, you did ask ...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I did! Thanks.
And whilst I'm asking idiot questions, what does the orange mean on this map.
- " Between Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon in the western part of the northern flank of the Alps, in northern Valais and in the Lower Valais, 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is anticipated. In the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps and in the remaining Valais, 10 to 20 cm of new fallen snow is expected; in Ticino and in Grisons, maximum 10 cm of snowfall. The snowfall level will be at 1500 to 1800 to begin with, then descend over the course of the day down to about 1000 m"
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, Bit confused by what that chart means. Is the blue-orange colour temperature? What does it suggest? The storms that have been (and are still bringing) all the snow are a low pressure area to the north of the alps - this is a lowish pressure area sat over eastern europe - would that bring cold air down from the north? What sort of weather will that bring?
yours amateurishly but fascinated!
andy
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
andy from embsay, see brian's answer, 5 posts above. That 'thickness' is used as a guide to the mean temperature of the entire airmass because it needs to be measured somewhere and because air expands and contracts with temperature, its value gives an indication of its temperature at that point. FWIW, 500 dam = 5 km & a dam (decametre or 10m) is one of those odd units that only seems to be used in aviation and meteorology. The air pressure is in hPa and it just so happens on planet Earth that the dividing sphere where 1/2 the atmospheric mass is above and 1/2 the atmospheric mass is below, occurs at about 5 km above sea level. Important details such as areas of high and low pressure will obviously skew the meaning of that value so that's why the calculation that brian provided is used to calibrate it to something meaningful.
Thanks moffatross - I assumed that orange was warmer and blue was cold, but couldn't work out why it's an interesting chart - is it suggesting more stable weather with cold temps or something else?
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
not sure i'm liking the look of that 21st Dec predicition above...looks like a heatwave unless i'm mistaken
Looks like a LOT of precipitation arriving from Friday morning (including some before) across the entire north west alpine region. At altitude (above 1600m), there's going to be a major cumulation of snow.
I'm guessing over 1m in places. Anyone with more understanding verify that?
Hope everyone can get to their chosen resorts ok.
After all it is free
After all it is free
skinutter, no it would have been below average in the eastern Alps and around average, perhaps a little above, in the west. It would have been very snowy in parts of the Alps.
Anyway, so much wrapping for fish and chips at this point.
The next few days look like bringing snowfall across most of the Alps. By far the most looks like falling in the French Alps, but the Valais, Arlberg and around Salzburg all look like profitting. At times on Friday evening it looks like temperatures could rise quite sharply (briefly raining the snow line to 1600m+ in places, before it falls almost as quickly.
Saturday to Tuesday all look rather cold at present, with temperatures well below seasonal average. There's a foxy little ovrernight -33C cropping up on this chart. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1024.gif
Looks stormy in the Channel on Friday.
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nozawaonsen, liking the sound of what you say, hopefully the snow around salzburg area will push just south past the Dachstein, sometimes gets a bit held up around there.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen, when is it meant to be stormy on Friday? Meant to be getting a ferry across in the evening
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
My kitchen, which faces the wind, is like the bridge of a ship!
I felt somewhat vindicated and rather smug today for booking a heavily discounted deal a whole week ago when I checked iglu, chaletline & crystal & found their remaining coming weekend Verbier weeks had gone back to near enough book price ... and those were for mostly make your own way there 'packages'. 
