 Poster: A snowHead
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That amount of snow (and rain lower down) would be very disruptive and could shut things down for a day or two.
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Hmm. First big transfer day of the season.... that figures. The Met Office chart predictions have some impressively low pressures on. Be careful what you wish for......
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Wow, it's not often you see the precip wiggles slice through the temps like that. Looks like potential for a settled period after the storm. Could be a chance for the snow pack to consolidate.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looking good but austria not quite so exciting although if i am right looks a pretty cosistent cold spell with a few cm of snow most days? hope i am right meaning would be plenty nice condition for my new year trip, webcams look a lot healthier but some of the snow reports seem a little excessive from what looks to be on the ground?
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nozawaonsen, flying to GVA on Sunday morning, hope it has passed through by then
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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That is some very serious precipitation en route !! 
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Eeek, I've gone from being excited about epic snow to slightly concerned I won't make it to La Plagne on Saturday...ah well, as long as we get there at some point.
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I'm flying TO London from Geneva this Friday, hope it will be Ok!
Miserable weather in Geneva this morning with very heavy rain, so hopefully higher up it will be seeing the benefits.
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brian
brian
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06z keeps the worst of the winds in the channel/biscay. *Ridiculous* amounts of snow heading to northern french alps and the Valais. Still a decent dump along in E Switz/Austria. A few cm at best in Italy/S France (do not underestimate the power of the rain shadow!)
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Piccadilly wrote: |
| Eeek, I've gone from being excited about epic snow to slightly concerned I won't make it to La Plagne on Saturday...ah well, as long as we get there at some point. |
Me too! Particularly as one forecast on tinternet shows a weather warning for heavy snow in BstM for Saturday!
Although this morning the heavy snow seems to have moved to Friday.
We shall just have to wait and see. 
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Its excited concern
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I'm a bit worried about the FL, snow-forecast have got a lot of rain low down for where we are going (Val Cenis) 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Driving to Le Grand Bornand on Friday/Saturday - looks like we might need those lovely snow tyres (and 4WD and chains...)
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Can the snowheads arriving GVA on Friday prep the bar for those of us arriving Saturday - please??? 
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You know it makes sense.
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driving down to Ste Foy on Thursday, looks like my arrival is going to be well timed ahead of the heavy snow forecast..........others in the party flying to Chambery on Fri & Sat.....finges crossed for them.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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just see the forecast and its now rain with FL at almost 2500m........i bloody hope that is wrong!!!!!!!!!!! 45mm of rain for STe Foy
Days 0-3 Sainte Foy Weather Summary: A moderate fall of snow, heaviest on Mon morning. Temperatures will be below freezing (max 0°C on Tue morning, min -15°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. Days 4-6 Sainte Foy Weather Summary: A heavy fall of snow, heaviest during Fri afternoon. Becoming milder with heavy rain (total 45.0mm) on Fri afternoon . Freeze-thaw conditions (max 1°C on Fri night, min -11°C on Sat night). Wind will be generally light.
Metric
Imper.
Mon
12
morn-
ing Mon
12
after-
noon Mon
12
night Tue
13
morn-
ing Tue
13
after-
noon Tue
13
night Wed
14
morn-
ing Wed
14
after-
noon Wed
14
night Thu
15
morn-
ing Thu
15
after-
noon Thu
15
night Fri
16
morn-
ing Fri
16
after-
noon Fri
16
night Sat
17
morn-
ing Sat
17
after-
noon Sat
17
night
Wind (km/h)
Summary light snow light snow clear some clouds some clouds snow shwrs snow shwrs light snow snow shwrs light snow light snow mod. snow heavy snow mod. snow mod. snow mod. snow mod. snow mod. snow
Snow cm 5 2 - - - 1 1 3 2 4 5 8 12 7 6 7 5 7
Rain mm - - - - - - - - - - - - - 14 31 - - -
Max °C -2 -5 -6 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -7 -8 -4 0 0 1 -2 -8 -10
Min °C -3 -8 -15 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -9 -7 -8 -10 -2 0 0 -5 -9 -11
WChill °C -7 -13 -20 -5 -6 -7 -5 -8 -15 -12 -16 -14 -8 -6 -5 -12 -16 -17
Freezing level (m) 1700 1450 650 2200 2300 2000 2050 1950 900 1100 850 800 1850 2350 2500 1800 950 450
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Poster: A snowHead
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snowing quite nicely in the Savoie today, it seems. 15 - 25cms at 1500m forecast by Chamonix meteo. Need to build up some more base to withstand the stunning quantity of rain which looks pretty likely to fall on Friday - hopefully Saturday it will still be precipitating, with snow to much lower altitudes. Anybody driving round the Alps this weekend will probably be thankful if all that precipitation doesn't fall as snow along the main road arteries and resort approach roads. I have timed it really badly; driving south through the San Gottardo tunnel on Thursday and north through Fréjus on Sunday - not looking forward to that, really. Have four good snow tyres and just did my annual snowchain practice, but.......
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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pam w, gulp.... good luck with that!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Remember snow-forecast takes its figures only from the op. GFS run, it's likely that any snowfall coming this weekend will be less than currently progged (it's 4-6 days away, a long time when there is a massive variable involved such as the track of a storm)
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why will it be less ??........last week they weren t forecasting anywhere near the amount that actually fell.
as it happens I m happy for it to be less.......the only worry is the FL, which at 2500m, and the amount of precipitation due will cause mayhem.
thouigh very true much can change between now and then
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| stefoy4me wrote: |
why will it be less ??........last week they weren t forecasting anywhere near the amount that actually fell.
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As far as I can see the 6z OP run on GFS was an outlier in showing much heavier precipitation that what most of the other runs show. Hence the amount falling is likely to be less than what the OP run shows unless the OP run is right and all the other runs are wrong. I would wait until Thursday before getting excited/disappointed as this will give a amore accurate indication of how much will fall Friday/Saturday. What does seem clear at this stage is that the heavier precipitation coincides with milder air hence the high freezing level shown on sites like snow forecast.com
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cheers Jimmy........to be honest alot of this is beyond my level of understanding as regards forecasts, GFS, 6z, OP etc etc.........
by Thursday i ll be en route so what will be will be
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If you look at the wigglies for the Western French Alps for example:
The green spike is the operational run which snow-forecast is based on, and shows almost twice as much precipitation as some runs.
All runs agree that the FL will increase over the weekened, and then decrease again, and all agree to some precipitation.
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This storm only has to track a bit further north and the temps will drop and so will snow levels, don't worry yet, the freezing line on snow forecast pretty unreliable , I like to use the guys from chamonix they tend to get temps and snowfall amounts reasonably correct normally though from two days out max
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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cheers for the explanation......excuse the dumb q's............which side is the FL indicated on right or left ?
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yes noticed that about Snow Forecast........their freezing levels don always seem to be very reliable...........take each day as it comes until Thursday when i ll be en route to bucket loads of rain or snow.
A freezing level of 1500m will be just fine.......snow in resort but not a nightmare climb in snow from BSM
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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06z is showing an increasing likelihood of a white (or even rather wet) Christmas, compared to 00Z. In fact you might wonder whether the two runs had any relationship to each other at all.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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James the Last, almost no relationship at all at that range. Each run is just producing different permutations.
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stefoy4me, the upper line and the left hand side shows the temperature at approx. 1500m. The steady red line is the average for that time of year.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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no Rob, it potentially could be carnage...........glad i m getting there on Thursday night!!!!!!!!!..........
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Poster: A snowHead
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| phillip33 wrote: |
| the freezing line on snow forecast pretty unreliable , I like to use the guys from chamonix they tend to get temps and snowfall amounts reasonably correct normally though from two days out max |
I checked snow forecast today after looking at this thread and it said 13mm of rain followed by 1cm of snow for us at village level (I usually only look at chamonix meteo unless the news is so good/bad I'm praying for agreement/disagreement from other sources)! It was a bit sleety at 7am but by the time I'd made coffee it had become proper snow that has just stopped, and there is 16cm of snow on the balcony (tape measured for accuracy in this weather thread rather than relying on the Pringle method!)
I stopped looking at snow forecast because it so often predicts rain at village level here when it in fact falls as snow that I got tired of being unduly worried. I seem to remember nozawaonsen giving a good explanation last year of the different factors that affect the actual rain/snow limit at specific times in specific areas, and why snow forecast can only give a rough guide as to what might happen.
Here's hoping it works out perfectly so everyone can get where they need to go, with just the right amount of snow!
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brian
brian
Guest
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There was a flutter of sleet here today, at below 500m!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Hmmm I'm on Hayling Island and its gusting over 40 knts now....
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The GFS reports, are they normalised to sea level?
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Bit of a shame about sea area Trafalgar (or whatever it is now called)... otherwise it would be "There are warnings of gales in all areas...." not what you want to hear if you are in a small boat but quite nice if you have plenty of alcohol and spare matches on land.... 944 would certainly cause you to take a reef in....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
944 would certainly cause you to take a reef in
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bare poles, maybe? And some of that alcohol you mentioned. 
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Yes - bare poles and plenty of sea room! Always think that mountains and seas have one thing in common.. rocks are a bad idea....
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