 Poster: A snowHead
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red 27, yes for the next week it looks mild, dry and sunny because high pressure is dominating. From the 23 November or so it looks cooler and possibly wetter. I wouldn't worry too much about the detail as that is changing from run to run.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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18z GFS operational run doesn't back the colder 12z, so a pretty unclear picture remains beyond about a week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Whereas... This morning's 00z GFS does. If you take a glance at the ensembles at the bottom of the previous page you can see they both go for colder and snowier weather in the last week of November. There is still a lot of spread, although the control run is picking up a similar pattern to the operational, ideally you would want to see this signal being picked up through today before increasing confidence.
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Too far out to get excited about it but this would certainly cool things down for the PSB...
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 15-11-12 13:45; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The 06z GFS and it is the complete reverse of the previous run.
Just shows how little confidence you can have in the long range models.
Keep up the good work Noz really looking forward to the day you post saying mega dump potentially on the horizon 
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Going to Val Thorens for a week during the first week December to open things up and make sure everything is clean and still working and I didn't leave a window open when I went out in the summer!
Let's hope some snow arrives in the last week of November as the 00z GFS thingy suggests.
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harri20000, to be honest 06z looked pretty cool and snowy in the last week of November too.
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nozawaonsen, is there a guide to all this 00z GFS ECM etc terminology somewhere? I seem to recall it has all been explained before but not found it - in which case can you point me and maybe others sharing this unhealthy obsession towards it? Thanks!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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DoubleBombardino, but be aware that because all the charts on that thread update, ie they are for now, not then, they don't have any relationship with the words written back then. Makes that otherwise very helpful thread difficult to follow!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Keep up the good work Noz really looking forward to the day you post saying mega dump definitely on the horizon
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having been following the weather threads for years now, I don't think I've ever seen such a post!
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thanks kitenski, and pam w, I shall save some of that reading for a night when sleep is elusive.
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You know it makes sense.
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I can dream can't I 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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18z takes it cold and snowy in the Alps from 23/24 November.
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Poster: A snowHead
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00z GFS also going for a colder than average last week of November with snow in the Alps. Strong agreement between the control and operational runs building support from a number of the other individual ensemble runs.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Great timing yet again nozawaonsen, each year you manage to organise a dump just before my trips out.
If the snow could stop on saturday 1st so I can drive up the hill easily on Sunday or Monday, that would be great.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Nozawaonsen
I am a little confused  looking at the models, can you explain the difference between Temperature 500hPa and Temperature 850hPa ? and if this is the key area to be looking at or if when looking at the models you look at another area altogether such as max Temperature 2m or Theta-E 850hPa for example ?
I regularly look at this model if that helps http://www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-ncep.html
Cheers
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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harri20000, 500hPa is about 5000m above sea level and 850hPa equates roughly to 1500m above sea level. In simple terms looking at 500hPa heights is a good way of getting a sense of how different models assess medium term conditions. 850hPa temperatures are useful for getting an idea for mountain temperatures. The link you posted is to a series of charts based on the American GFS model.
The 06z run continues the drum beat towards a cold final week of November.
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Nozawaonsen
Thanks for the explanation its most appreciated. 
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The sudden lack of chatter in here makes me nervous about my first week of december 
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joedumper, don't think there was a "sudden lack of chatter?"
The 12z GFS operational bucks the trend of the last few runs by delivering a mild last week of November, but it was quite an outlier with the majority of the pack going cold so I wouldn't take it too seriously. ECM goes on to deliver colder conditions.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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18z GFS is rolling out so we should get a sense of whether the milder 12z end to the month was a blip or not...
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And 18z had a generally cooler than average last week of November and start to December for the Alps with snow.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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don't think there was a "sudden lack of chatter?"
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pardon my stupidity, i had just bookmarked page 12 of the thread and when it rolled to 13, i didn't notice 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snow is on the way as temperatures cool at the end of the week.
Here's a look at how it currently looks, this will shift from run to run, but is currently focussed around the south and western end of the Alps (particularly the French Italian border). Looks like falling between the 23-25 November.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Mon 19-11-12 23:55; edited 4 times in total
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Good piece by UCAR on ENSO and the US winter. Touches on the question of October snow cover and The Arctic Oscillation.
¡HOLA, LA NADA!
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You know it makes sense.
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06z operational was a cool run from 23 November, below average into early December with snow arriving from 24 November. I've updated the chart above which shows the more eastern focus of the snow (compared to the 00z).
Time to start the bus...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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That's what I like to see, the Dolomites getting more than their fair share 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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whats happenend to noza
"snow is on the way" thats a bold statement for him. no disclaimers?, something has happened to him. we wont the real noza back please.
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phillip33, dont worry I am sure he will find a run that will cause some doubt 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I've updated the chart above to show the 12z update. A pretty snowy outlook for much of the Alps next weekend. Heading colder than average weather for the last week of November (the end of this week).
Not bad. Not certain. But likely now.
So to the question of certainty, well it's the weather so it's rarely certain, that's the nature of things (and not just the weather). So the more certain one claims to be about it the more likely that is to be misleading. The more so the further out you are looking (and that must be true of any form of forecasting). I'd prefer not to mislead people, hence why I try to be up front about the lack of certainty. And I'm fairly certain I'm not going to change that.
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If you could make it drop on the West side a bit more that would be great.
Looking much better now for the first week of December though.
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18z spins out a completely different operational evolution, which would delay snowfall in the Alps (though delivers it in the end at the end of the month). Given how different it is and given the lack of consistency I'd want to see where it lay in the ensembles and how the 00z runs look tomorrow.
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00z GFS is a downgrade on some of yesterday's charts (particularly for the eastern Alps). It does cool things down to seasonal average, but not below. A sudstau bringing snow to the southern and western Alps.
ECM is similar, but cooler and pushes things a little further east.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Interesting show on the Mega Storm Sandy on the tele last night. Talked about how the weather computer models all but one or two showing Sandy 5 days out predicting a storm path that put a direct hit into the Central To N. Jersey area. In about 123 years of weatehr data, no such hurricane had ever traveled such a path. It was interesting to note that there was a high pressure blocking over Greenland, along with the jet stream coming out of Canada with a bunch of cold air, which was forcing Sandy on the path to New Jersey. I guess that's why the reference to the perfect super storm recipe. In any event it is intereting to see what goes into creating such mega storms.
At this moment the PNW is getting hit by some serious weather. Lots and lots of precip falling as rain in the low lands and heavy wet snow in the mountains.Most rivers will reach flood levels this afternoon. Could get really nasty if the FL goes up. However, if the FL stays reasonable low throughout the week, it will generate several feet of snow in the central to North Cascade range. Hopefully the FL will get a wee bit of help from some cold air up in the gulf of Alaska. All those little weather ingredients that us skiers hope for that creates some wonderfully and tastey snow! Yum!
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