ENSO may be making a break for the border... Up to +0.41 which keeps it out of El Niño territory for now, but perhaps not for too long if it keeps rising at that rate.
Not quite sure why I wrote that the summer solstice was Sunday. That was nonsense as it was last Tuesday. And the rollercoaster is now creeping past the highest point about to plunge through the rest of summer, autumn and direct to winter! Or something. It might be a bit slower than that in reality.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Less of a good thing if your house is flooded of course.
The solstice Sunday mix up was due not to whiskey or even whisky, but the oddity that means that Midsummer's night falls on the 24th and is not the same as the solstice.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
NOAA/CPC on ENSO:
"Nearly all of the dynamical models predict a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) to El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer/fall, with El Niño continuing through the remainder of the year."
Looking at CFS it's still generally been suggesting a wetter and possibly warmer than average winter in the northern Alps with more dry anomalies in December in the southern Alps. Which if (and that is a big if) it came out would suggest a positive NAO. But obviously too far out to take that seriously in any way.
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 1-07-12 15:48; edited 1 time in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
June 2012 in Austria was one of the hottest on record, coming in at the sixth warmest in the last 250 years, possibly also setting the record for the hottest June day. It was often wet with 150% average rainfall and conversely was also sunnier than average (110%) in much of Austria, much of the heavy rain being concentrated in storms.
Generally warmer (in the easternAlps) and wetter weather looks like continuing through early July in much of the Alps.
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nozawaonsen, well after the storm in Newcastle last Thursday the rain continues.....
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Yes the UK is on the wrong side of an unusually stubborn jet stream which has been diving much further south than usual. This is caused by the type of northern blocking which in winter could well produce very cold weather though it's not likely to be very welcome in summer. At the same time this is also producing some very warm weather for those on the other side. Hence the warm weather in Austria and elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. And of course over the Atlantic in the US.
You can see the strength of the pattern through the NAO.
ENSO incidentally has paused for breath and remains at +0.68.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looking at how CFS sees December 2012 (which is obviously still five months away so too far off to have any sense of confidence in, in any way) there is broad trend to a positive NAO pattern, with wetter weather anomalies in the northern Alps and drier anomalies to the south. Temperature is not current showing anomalies one way or another.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ENSO has actually slipped back a little at +0.54. Still just in El niño territory and looking at the modelling probably likely to rise again as we move through summer.
A little more commentary on ENSO from BOM (the Australian equivalent of the Met Office).
"Climate indicators continue to show a shift towards El Niño, in line with most model predictions."
Apparently the ECM seasonal model update for November, December and January is suggesting "there is fcst to be a -ve pressure anom to the NW of the UK, hence +NAO (wet, windy & mild)" according to Matt Hugo at Weather Commerce Ltd.
This can favour wetter weather in the northern Alps (last December and January had +NAOs), but can also produce milder weather. Obviously all a long way off and all very broad brush.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Interesting piece from the Met Office about the jet stream and the persistent southerly track it is currently set on.
Meanwhile CFS has updated to include January in it's monthly outlooks. It goes without saying that that is waaaay too far out to take seriously, but for what it's worth it continues to show a positive NAO for both December and now January, with low pressure to the north west of the UK.
This is also showing up in the precipitation charts suggesting above average anomalies for the northern Alps. Whether it turns out that way of course time will tell.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Interesting piece on some of the very stormy weather that's been hitting Steirmark in Austria.
Very hot weather has been accompanied by violent storms with heavy rain, high winds and heavy hail, resulting in flooding, landslides, bridges being swept away and damage to homes and agriculture.
As an example on 03 July hot weather 38.3C was followed by storms leading to 150mm of rainfall, hail up to 7cm in diameter and 10,653 lightning flashes recorded in Styria (!). A couple of days later they had to use a snow plough to clear hail from the A2 motorway.
Watch out guys! I’ll be in the Alps this January on my honeymoon. I’ve been on three trips with my bride to be and every time we get poor snow conditions. Perfect sunshine but not a slow flake in sight! I’m beginning to think she has some kind of snow voodoo going on because I always used to luck out on snow trips with lots of powder.
Hopefully making a honest women of her will appease the snow gods!
And maybe if you are in the UK, you may even see some summer next week for a few days.
ENSO has slipped a little further back towards neutral to +0.49, but in general still looking like it will be either a weak or moderate El Niño later this year.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
In line with what is showing elsewhere (not least as he is commenting on the ECM model which I mentioned a few posts above):
- Moderate El Niño
- Positive NAO
Suggesting possibly drier than average conditions in the PNW, but colder than average further south.
Bad news is the Alps last had a moderate El Niño and positive NAO in 2006/2007, good news is that firstly that sort of correlation is not very strong and secondly (and probably more importantly) it is far too far off to have any confidence at all in how things might turn out.
After all it is free
After all it is free
BOM's ENSO update now stands at +0.68 with NOAA now saying "Chances increase for El Niño beginning in July- September 2012."
At present the models suggest this is likely to be somewhere between weak and moderate.
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nozawaonsen, was perusing TWO just now and read the Autumn Forecast 2012 thread, which, inevitably has lead to discussions of winter. One or two recent opinions of a very negative NAO and a very cold Northern European winter?
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robboj, the last week or so has seen some suggestions creeping into the CFS model of a more blocked pattern in December with high pressure building to the north (which would lead to a more -NAO).
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, the heavy rains have resulted in some pretty hairy landslides and some serious work will need to be done to some of the access routes to ski resorts. I saw some really bad slides along the Ötztal the other week and there have been road closures in the Stiermark as well. Yesterday saw one person killed and loads of others injured in Niederösterreich when a storm blew up with no warming at a tented festival near Melk - winds gusting up to 120km bringing trees down onto the tents. Very weird summer one way or another!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Only just picked this up on my news feeds, interesting effect every 150 years or so!
Bit of a glance back to see how things were looking at this (very early) stage last year.
- Most models were suggesting a neutral ENSO, though a number were starting to indicate another La Nina year. It turned out to be weak to moderate La Nina year. This year is currently looking like a weak to moderate El Nino.
- The other day in a different thread CH2O copied a forecast from Le Boss on TV Mountain (I think though am not sure this may be Yan Giezendanner?), last year at this time he was suggesting blocked weather in late autumn early winter, very cold, but dry. It was blocked in late autumn, but over Europe rather than to the north and so ended up being not just very dry, but very mild. Until it switched to become very wet (and snowy) in the northern Alps. Not really too sure what to make of his 9 (!) month forecast.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
NOAA currently notes:
"Nearly all of the dynamical models predict a transition from ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) to El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer/fall, with El Niño continuing into winter 2012-13."
CFS continues to suggest what looks to me like a +NAO pattern with a low pressure anomaly to the north west in November and December. That would tend to see more precipitation on the northern side of the Alps and generally temperatures on the milder side of average (and possibly quite stormy up in Scotland). ECM (which was also suggesting a +NAO for early winter last month) will update later this week.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Here's how the Aspen Times is reporting Accuweather's assessment of early season out West.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
We are now at that point where average temperatures have pretty much peaked in the Alps for summer and over the next two weeks the 30 year mean starts to gently head down. That doesn't of course mean there won't be more hot weather in the Alps, just that across the years we've reached the point where we start heading slowly, but surely towards the cooler end of the year. The time of year when the tide is on the turn.
Meanwhile ENSO is stumbling a bit and has slipped to +0.63.
CFS continues to have low pressure anomalies to the north and west of the UK in early Winter. This would lead to a +NAO and a wetter, possibly stormier start to winter in the northern Alps, though potentially milder too. ECM apparently has low pressure to the east and high pressure over the Arctic which could lead to a -AO and a colder start to winter. So take your pick. All pretty broad brush stuff at this stage!
Hottest July and indeed hottest month on record in the US.
Severely damaged leaves shrivel and turn brown by late summer and fall early, well before normal leaf fall in the autumn
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I don't think I mentioned anything about winter? Just that there are now early signs of the autumn to come appearing, not just in Horse Chestnuts, but in a number of trees and plants. Given that autumn is now only just over two weeks away that's pretty much to be expected.
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, Just kidding, we' have trees begining to shed leaves and the areas of long grass have started dying back, this morning was quite dark and gloomy, but hey the longest day was nearly 2 months ago
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Interesting piece about The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 and the current state of the Arctic ice melt.
On the face of it less strong for Alaska and the PNW compared to last year.
"The model has highest confidence in the above-normal winter temperatures across northern Canada/Alaska and the dryness over the Pacific Northwest. The Alaska forecast is the opposite of last year"
"Following a snow drought during winter 2011-2012, the mid-Atlantic and southern New England will get a snow dump this winter."
"... the ski industry, which despite an early start for some resorts suffered a slow season overall last winter, will benefit from the above-normal snowfall."
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Poster: A snowHead
