The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

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Ricklovesthepowder, standard idiot troll from our resident internet junkie! Must need a pizza fix Laughing

Still snowing here on the northern edge of the Tirol, but firends a wee bit further south say the real cold has not reached them yet. It seems to be about 24 hours later than forecast was one persons guesstimate.

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Samerberg Sue, like I said before since at least Thursday it's been looking like temperatures would be dropping through Saturday rather than Friday.

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Snowfall has now reached low lying Vienna. Back in the west the Arlbergstrasse is closed due to snowfall.

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And more importantly an extra hour in bed tonight!

Make it count.

After all it is free

nozawaonsen, over 20cms here this morning and more to come snowHead

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Looks like the forecasts were accurate, or even conservative about snow depth. A friend in Zermatt reports 50cm and still falling.

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snow reports

Snow down to the valley floor here in the Tarentaise, with 5cm at 600m

This early low level snow will inevitably melt back as from mid week temperatures return to closer to average for the start of November. So the snow line will rise again.

There could well be more snow later this week, ECM has a fair amount Wednesday and Thursday, GFS is suggesting it is more likely to be Friday down to 1200m+.

Next Sunday into Monday (5 November) there looks like being further rain/snow, but the temperature is rather uncertain.

Further out still GFS is keen to drop temperatures again as we move into November with more snow around 07/08 November.

But that's a long way off.

You know it makes sense.

ZAMG have put together some figures for snowfall at different altitudes this morning.

Seltenes Ereignis: Schnee im Oktober

And also some thoughts on frequency of October snowfall.

On average you might expect 1cm of snow cover in October:

- Flachau once every 10 years.
- Lungau once every other year.
- Graz once every 15 years,
- Mariazell once every 2 years.
- Klagenfurt once very 15 years.
- Kötschach once every three years
- Innsbruck to Kufstein once every 10 years.
- Reutte once every 2 years,
- Arlberg most years.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

The current snow in the Alps is courtesy of two low pressure systems.

You can see them both in this chart from early yesterday.

27 October 06z GFS+6 http://images.meteociel.fr/im/6759/gfs-2012102606-0-18_afa7.png

To the north east of the Alps is Veronika drawing cold air from the Arctic. To the South West is ex Raphael with mild and moist air pushing across the Mediterranean. It's the cold air from the north meeting the moist air from the west that has brought the snow.

This afternoon's 12z, rolling out at it's new earlier time, is suggesting a further low pressure system will skirt along the south on Wednesday and Thursday bringing further snow though with warmer temperatures the snow line looks 1500-1800m to me.

Friday could see yet another low pressure system make the same run, this time cooler air is pressing in so the snow line could be several 100m lower.

A snowHead

Some of the numbers relating to the storm approaching the East Coast are really striking.

- NOAA reckons 50-60 million people will be affected.
- 10 million could lose power.
- It could be a 500 to 1000 year precipitation event in places (much less in others).
- Possible 6-11 foot storm surge hitting New York (which would flood parts of the subway).
- the New York subway will close at 7pm tonight (possibly through Wednesday).
- 375,000 people in lower Manhattan and other low lying areas have just been asked to evacuate.
- Several feet of snow could fall on West Virginia mountains.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/cause-for-concern-the-7-most-alarming-hurricane-sandy-images/2012/10/28/615bbbfe-210b-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

A snowHead

nozawaonsen, Shocked

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

nozawaonsen, there is a thread about this in the après zone. Very very serious this storm, NYC is in serious trouble.

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Both the NAO and AO indexes are currently very negative.

NAO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

AO http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

This reflects the current high pressure blocking over Greenland which is allowing colder weather to pour down from the Arctic. At the same time a series of low pressure systems is being sent across the Mediterranean and you can see this clearly in the ensembles for Zermatt.

Big spikes of precipitation around Halloween and All Saints' Day (Wednesday and Thursday) and again on Sunday 04 and Monday 05 November. By the time this weather arrives temperatures will be close to seasonal average and the current snow line looks around 1800m +/-, it could be cooler further east and of course it could shift between now and then (ECM is cooler for the same period), but it certainly looks like the heaviest rain/ snow will be in the southern Alps for these next two systems.

From around 06 November temperatures look like cooling off again to quite a bit below average on both GFS and ECM this evening.

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Time to tune into this thread again !

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Some Sunday evening thoughts from SLF.

Avalanche dangers are gradually receding http://www.slf.ch/lawineninfo/lawinenbulletin/nationale_lawinenbulletins/index_EN

"Between the evening of Friday, 26 October, and Sunday, 28 October, at 2000 m there was 30 to 50 cm of new fallen snow in the southern Upper Valais. In the remaining regions there was 15 to 30 cm of fresh fallen snow widespread, from place to place more. The distribution of the snowfall varied intensely from spot to spot. The snowfall level dropped down to low altitudes..."

"On Sunday night, 28 October, in the central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, 5 to 10 cm of snowfall is anticipated, elsewhere less..."

"On Wednesday, 31 October, in southern regions above approximately 1300 m snowfall is expected to set in. In northern regions, there will be bright intervals due to foehn winds..."

After all it is free

Cold and snowy FI lasting through the whole run for the 18z (thankfully back in it's rightful time slot!).

Finishes with a bit of a gem.

18zGFS 28 October +384

Obviously one can't take something at that range seriously, but it would be very snowy if something like that did come off.

Looking at CFS.

CFSv2 forecast monthly z700 anomalies

- November may be shaping up to have quite a positive anomaly over Greenland(-NAO). It doesn't look very strong at this point though which may indicate it will fade as we go through the month.
- December looks like a +NAO, so milder and stormy over northern Europe and the Northern Alps. That said there is high pressure near Scandinavia which conversely could make things colder.
- February and March look like returning to a very -NAO. So possibly colder weather.

Rebel Yells and all, it's the South in the firing line this week.*

From mid week low pressure in the Mediterranean will drive heavy snow into the southern side of the Alps. Temperatures will start quite low to the south with the snow line around 1300m but rising to 1800m so snow to rain at mid levels. But at higher altitudes you could see 40cm+ of snow falling including on some crowd pullers like Val D'Isere and Zermatt (could be less mind you).

Further north should also see smaller amounts of snow with a higher snow line 1800m+ more influenced by the foehn.

You can see the switch in wind direction nicely here.

Foehn and Bise [meteocentrale.ch]

By the start of next week we could see further stormy (mild and wet) weather pushing in. After that at least for a while cooler temperatures returning.

*away from the Alps it is of course the US East Coast that is perhaps more directly exposed...

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Further to the last piece of sensationalizing (if that's a word) news I posted, here's the latest offering from the AOL website http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/10/28/are-we-in-for-a-freezing-winter/?ncid=webmail9

Does this one seem to have some credibility? Apologies if similar has already been posted on here, haven't had time to catch up yet.

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Also for any chaps out there, the very next article may be more interesting - http://www.mydaily.co.uk/2012/10/28/jennifer-aniston-boobs-black-dress-justin-theroux_n_2033695.html?ncid=webmail3

snow reports

reded78, it is poorly written. That's not to say that the UK may not have a cold winter. It might. But that article is not well put together and gives the impression of greater certainty than in reality there is. There are of course a couple of well placed clues. One is that it cites The Daily Star, the other that it cites The Express.

First off the Met Office contingency planners is available to anyone who wants to look for it. To make it easy here it is:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

What it actually says about temperature is:

"between neutral and El Niño over the next three months. Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher than normal though the anomaly has decreased in the last couple of weeks and typically change quickly at this time of year. Consequently the influence of these forcing factors is weak and not expected to
have predictive value for conditions over Europe over the next three months.
After record low Arctic sea ice extent in September, coverage is increasing but is still well below average for the time of year, and close to the 2007 value. However, any links with European early winter climate are yet not clearly established.

Indications from the models favour slightly higher than average pressure to the north of the UK and slightly lower pressure over southern Europe. This would suggest a weakened westerly tendency which could allow a greater than average incidence of cold blocking patterns. This is more marked in the forecast for November than for the November-December-January period.

However, the lack of strong influences suggests that predictability for this year is likely to be low. Therefore confidence in the forecast is relatively low.

The curves in Figure T2 show a small shift towards colder than average values for November and November-December-January, slightly increasing the probability of well below average temperatures from the climatological level."

So the possibility is there, but with low confidence.

The bit about heavy snow is extrapolation and it is not made clear that this is not what the Met Office said. As for salt stocks that may be an indicator that councils have read the Met Office contingency forecast or they may just be being careful, but it's an indicator of prudence not a means of prediction.

On salt stocks. I work at an office in a depot that grits Motorways in the Mids. They have been stockpiling grit/salt for the last 6 weeks or so. They got caught napping a few years ago when it fell to -15C or so in Nov/Dec. As nozawaonsen surmised this is due to prudence rather than knowledge/prediction. Apart from long term stock planning they look very much in the short term (the next few days). Any weather predictions taken any notice of are usually only 2 to 3 days in the future at most.

You know it makes sense.

nozawaonsen, is it likely/possible that the current NY storm will have significant impacts over this side of the pond further down the line?

If so, what might we see?

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Mark1863 re salt stocks.. reminds me of an old weather forecasting joke:

A group of Indians came to their chief and asked "Will it be a bad winter?" The chief, who was young, had not paid attention to the elders and did not know the signs. He told them to go start cutting firewood and he would tell them when they returned. He then snuck off and consulted the National Weather Service. He asked them, "Will it be a bad winter?"

"Probably," was the answer.

When the men returned the chief told them it would be a bad winter and to go cut more firewood. Just to be sure, the chief called the Weather Service again and asked, "Are you sure it's going to be a bad winter?"

"It looks like it," was the answer.

So when the woodcutters returned he again sent them out to cut more wood. Once more he called the Weather Service and asked, "Are you really sure it's going to be a bad winter?"

"Yes. A very bad winter," they said.

"How do you know?" asked the chief.

"Because the Indians are cutting wood like crazy!"

A snowHead

Midweek weather now looking less severe for the Alps as the storm takes a more southerly route. 04/05 November still looking potentially quite substantial to the south, but again could end up tracking further south. We'll see.

A snowHead

Southern Alps still look likely to see the most of snowfall midweek, down a little on this time yesterday, but 15-25cm seems quite possible. 04/05 November should see further snowfall. The period around 07 November is also shaping up now. After some cooler than average temperatures in a week's time it looks like returning to closer to seasonal average for mid November.

All in all with temperatures running between colder than average and average and fairly frequent snowfall it's not shaping up too badly through autumn. Of course what happens later in November could yet change that. Still. "Jusqu'ici tout va bien… "

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

The rooks are building their nests lower this year.....

Perhaps having learnt their lesson from last year when a couple of days of wind in November blew the higher nests out of the tree's Toofy Grin

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Several feet of snow in West Virginia. Crazy to see so much snow in the mid-atlantic area this time of year. Meanwhile it's warm and wet in the PNW. Freezing level has gone up this week with mild temps.

Glad to see the Southern Alps looking promising early season. Hope it holds up and builds a nice base for a White Swiss Christmas. (Zermatt in 7 weeks!)

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

SLF's take.

Caution urged towards fresh snowdrift at high altitudes

"On Wednesday, 31 October... During the afternoon on the southern flank of the Alps above approximately 1300 m, snowfall is expected to set in... During the night of Wednesday, 31 October, the precipitation will intensify along the southern flank of the Alps. Between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning above approximately 2000 m on the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards thereof, 15 to 30 cm of fresh fallen snow is anticipated, with as much as 40 cm of snowfall locally. In the regions bordering to the north, approximately 10 cm of new fallen snow is expected, elsewhere less. On Thursday and Friday... light snowfall above approximately 1500 m.

The wind will become more brisk on Wednesday. On Thursday in northern regions and in high alpine regions, winds will be blowing at strong to storm velocity, elsewhere at moderate to strong velocity from southwesterly directions."

"During the night of Saturday, 3 November, the foehn wind will come to an end and widespread snowfall is expected."

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Powder magazine with some reporting on the snowfall from Sandy.

Snow from Sandy

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Sandy US records:

- highest storm surge at Battery Park 13.88 feet (10 foot previously)
- lowest pressure ever 940mb of a storm making landfall
- largest storm related power outage in history
- 20-25bn damage makes it one of top ten costliest ever.
- Sugar Mountain set for earliest ever Opening Day

Good article from The Atlantic.

Sorting the Real Sandy Photos From the Fakes

Back to snow later this morning!

After all it is free

Nice WRF image of how the snow later today is going to be focussed round the southern side of the Alps.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=36#model

Overnight it pushes east.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=42#model

Still a fair bit of uncertainty about this weekend. A large number of ensembles supporting some heavy rain/snow but the operational run has backed away a fair amount.

Average 850hpa temperatures are dropping quite quickly at this time of year. Looking at the 30 year mean you can see a fall of between 3C and 5C between now and the middle of November. Next week in the Alps still looks likely to be below that average.

What of ENSO? According to BOM we've just squeaked back into weak El Niño territory at +0.55.

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12z GFS view on snow between now and a week on Thursday.

The generally cooler than average and unsettled conditions allowing snow cover to continue to build across the Alps through the first week of November.

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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

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