This gives a rough idea of where snowfall is most likely to be focussed across the Alps next weekend. Wet weather is pushing across the Alps from the west meeting cold weather pouring down from the north. Initially where these two elements are going to be mixing the most will be in the east.
Do remember this chart is just based on the latest GFS operational run and like any product produced from that data will be subject to the usual fluctuations.
Ricklovesthepowder, by the end of next week in the north of England overnight possibly dipping below freezing, during the day 5C to 7C, Scotland a few degrees cooler (obviously more so at altitude).
There are -ve pressure anomalies over Greenland for November, December and January. This would tend to suggest +NAO and wetter and stormier, possibly milder weather over the northern Alps with drier weather on the southern side of the Alps. This looks to me to be supported by the precipitation anomalies which tend to suggest drier weather to the south.
In general over the last few months CFS has looked to me to be suggesting a +NAO for the first part of winter with a -NAO looking more possible in the latter part of winter. Worth noting the potential for blocking over Scandinavia in December though which could push cold across from the east.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This chart is interesting. It shows the anticipated temperature anomaly (in this case for a week on Monday) against the seasonal norm.
12z GFS nudges the cold weather a day earlier bringing it in on Friday 26 November along with 20-30cm of snow in the EasternAlps down to relatively low levels (below 1000m at times over the next couple of days. Further snow crossing on Monday.
At present GFS suggests some stormy weather pushing in at the start of November, slightly milder to start with, but by the 03 November you'd be seeing heavier snow pushing across the Alps. Obviously that is a long way out at this stage.
Washington state received about 24 cm of snow in the northern Cascades this weekend. See ya later El Nino...
After all it is free
After all it is free
Am I the only one missing his daily dose of NOZ wisdom and insight? Feel like a bridegrom stood at the alter waiting the future misses to step through the door...
NOZ you deserve down time so not cussing you, just letting you know how much some of us (rightly or wrongly) hang off of this thread.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
After the strong cool down at the end of the week a general sense conditions will return to more seasonal as we start November with the temperatures close to normal for the time of year.
Snowfall to low levels more likely for the easternAlps over the weekend.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
welcome back Noz' hope you've had a good day' missed yah
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen, cooling down fast here in Munich nozawaonsen, and looking good for a beginning of snow at lower levels than the glaciers by the end of the week. I wore gloves today for the first time as I came into work!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quite a switch coming up at the end of the week as cold air plunges down from the Arctic. From a low point on Saturday temperatures will slowly rise to average or above average in early November, before dropping again on 04 November if GFS 00z is to believed.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snowfall this weekend now looking closer to 10-20cm for the EasternAlps.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Thu 25-10-12 8:24; edited 1 time in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The end of October 2011 saw "the biggest October snowstorm ever recorded" for may parts of the US East Coast.
This year it looks possible that Tropical Storm Sandy could also deliver a "powerhouse" of a storm (though it could yet simply head out to sea). Snow looks possible in places, though nothing on the scale of last year with high winds and flooding more likely to be a threat.
In the meantime this morning's GFS shows a pleasing upgrade in snow this weekend as you can see from the chart at the top of the page.
Stepping back you can see how colder than average weather is pushing across Europe from the North West over the coming week, whilst South East Europe and further east in Russia are warmer than normal.
The cold temperatures that will arrive over the weekend will gradually rise over the coming week returning to seasonal average in early November. At present further rain or snow looks possible around 03 November, but there is a great deal of uncertainty and spread in the ensembles about which direction temperatures will go at that point.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
The end of October 2011 saw "the biggest October snowstorm ever recorded" for may parts of the US East Coast.
Thanks for that, very interesting. I was in New York at the time and the snow came down very quickly and very heavy for a while, so I almost didn't make it back to JFK for the flight home. The early snow really caught everyone by surprise and it was a bit chaotic!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
all weather forecasts should be like that! The article you linked to said the storm was well forecast, but that wasn't my impression in the week leading up to it. The snow fell on Saturday morning and as late as the Wednesday morning when I was checking the local TV forecasts there was no mention of snow. By Thursday that had all changed and the forthcoming snowpocalypse was leading the news, but that didn't allow much time for local authorities to get ploughs fitted, power companies to pre-position teams and materials to cope with downed power lines, etc.
nozawaonsen, looking at the changes in that chart, I'd better put the bike in the cellar for winter and get my snow shovelling gear out. They are predicting 25 to 30 cms for my area on that chart. Just glad the car is appropriately suited and booted for winter.
Not looking so good for the Sölden races on Saturday though
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Samerberg Sue wrote:
Not looking so good for the Sölden races on Saturday though
Sue, leave a pint glass on your windowsill overnight, I reckon by morning it will be half empty.
Separately ZAMG is emphasising that quite where and how much snow is tricky to predict given the uncertainty of how the cold polar air will interact with the moist Mediterranean low pressure system. 5 to 15cm down to the valleys is their current suggestion.
06z GFS incidentally suggests a cold and snowy first week of November...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
It’s early season in the mountains of western Canada and people are already riding hard. Rumour has it there’s over a metre of snow in parts of the Columbias and up and down the Coast Range of BC. Hearing tales of folks riding through 40 cm of powder is great fun, but should also be a prompt to start thinking about avalanches...
... Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly nasty as rocks, slash, deadfall, stumps, etc. usually litter the runout zones. Even a small avalanche that pulls you over and/or through an obstacle course like this can be deadly serious...
...In summary remember the old timey words of wisdom, “If there’s enough snow to ride, there’s enough snow to slide.” Be your own forecaster, approach the mountains cautiously and repeat the mantra of the early season; “Go Small!”"
And a collection of research from Asarc: Applied Snow and Avalanche Research, University of Calgary
After all it is free
After all it is free
Here's SLF's update on the snowfall this weekend.
"Onset of winter down to low altitudes
The snow from the most recent period of precipitation in mid-October generally still blankets the ground in high alpine regions as well as on north facing slopes above 2300 to 2600 m...
... During the night of Friday, 26 October, in all regions of Switzerland snowfall is expected to set in. During the course of the day on Saturday the snowfall level will drop down to low altitudes. Between Friday evening and Saturday evening on the northern flank of the Alps and in Grisons, 20 to 40 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated at 2500 m. In the Valais and in Ticino, up to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow is expected. At 1500 m, approximately half these amounts of snowfall are anticipated."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Experts sound alarm on Hurricane Sandy, likely to be worse than 1991 “Perfect Storm”
Temperatures look like falling all through tomorrow in the Alps as snow arrives. By Saturday night the snowline will be around 100m in places with temperatures having plummeted 20C or more.
It's still late October and that cold won't last as temperatures slowly return to seasonal averages and the snow withdraws. But at present it looks like from 03 November they will once again fall with more snow returning to the mountains and possibly dropping further in time for Bonfire night. In general temperatures in the Alps from tomorrow have a colder than average feel to them for the foreseeable briefly rising at the start of the month as a substantial low pressure system over the UK draws up warmer air.
There's a cool little map of the temp change over night tonight and tomorrow morning showing the drop in temp across the French alps (and Switzerland): http://meteo.search.ch/temp
Combine it with this one showing the precipitation predicted over the same period, and you could get quite excited about snow http://meteo.search.ch/prognosis
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snow expected right down to the town here tomorrow afternoon/evening!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Very pleased we got the snow tyres on early...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
under a new name wrote:
Very pleased we got the snow tyres on early...
I didn't take mine off
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
12zGFS drove temperatures cold again from the start of November. It'll be interesting to see what happens on the 18z...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen, Just back from Salzburgerland and although the forecast was of dire temperature drops, it is still surprisingly warm out there.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Samerberg Sue, all the models I've been looking at have temperatures falling in the Alps through tomorrow not today. The cold air is still further north at this stage.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It's a cool 18z this evening with this weekend's snow lasting through till Monday in the easternAlps, before snow showers return on Tuesday in the west. Another band crosses the Alps Friday (02 November) into Sunday morning, before a further one arrives Sunday into Monday (bonfire night).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Pouring with rain in verbier - awaiting the cold air.....
nozawaonsen, now raining here (Alpenvorland at 800m) but not yet cold enough for snow but it is coming as the front moves southwards. Currently 4°C, so it is close!) We have an extreme weather warning to the north of us, but none issued for us in Oberbayern yet!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
About 1 - 2ft of snow due in Switzerland and Austria at higher levels over the next week or so.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Looking at this morning's output.
- temperatures dropping through today and snow falling to low levels by this evening, extending through to Monday in the easternAlps.
- further snow Friday (02 November) then again Sunday and the following Monday (04/05 November).
- after this weekend's cold temperatures rise to seasonal average by next weekend, before dropping below again the week after.
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nozawaonsen, Full blown snow storm here right now! Only at a meagre 800m asl so according to that weather sage, Whitegold I must be delusional
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
A good piece on how ensembles begin to build a picture of the track of a storm, but that it is still far from exact.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
all weather forecasts should be like that! The article you linked to said the storm was well forecast, but that wasn't my impression in the week leading up to it. The snow fell on Saturday morning and as late as the Wednesday morning when I was checking the local TV forecasts there was no mention of snow. By Thursday that had all changed and the forthcoming snowpocalypse was leading the news, but that didn't allow much time for local authorities to get ploughs fitted, power companies to pre-position teams and materials to cope with downed power lines, etc.
