With a mix of sun and cloud there are some great views of the Alps this morning. However, temperatures are going to rise rapidly in the coming days and by Sunday could be 10 to 15C above average.
The ensembles are pretty consistent all the way through to around 25 October. This type of pattern often accompanies the relative predictability of periods of high pressure. From 25 October the uncertainty grows until you've got a spread close to 20C. So a return to cooler temperatures at the end of October certainly remains quite possible (if not necessarily probable).
It's all very exciting...
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 16-10-12 20:20; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
A swing to much colder weather towards the end of the month in the 6z GFS. It'll be interesting to see if it is picked up in the next run.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
A swing to much colder weather towards the end of the month in the 6z GFS. It'll be interesting to see if it is picked up in the next run.
thanks Nozawaonsen, it is interesting but also paintfull to read this thread - can we fast forward to page 12 or 15 please
dear snow gods - please give us lots of snow as of 1st December - 10 cm a day. And specifically for Tignes, please bring 50 cm of frech powder on 12 Jan 2013 and then clear blue sky and now winds for a week. Well, some fresh snow during the nights should be also OK.
The op run is an outlier. The mean, as often is the case at this range, is close to the seasonal average. But taken with the 06z run it's certainly enough to raise an eyebrow. It'll be interesting to see if ECM goes on to build high pressure out over Greenland in the next half an hour.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Well ECM certainly didn't go for the sort of cold the GFS op run went for, but given how much of an outlier it was that would be a little bit of a surprise, but well worth keeping an eye on how the last few days of the month shape up because there is enough in the last few GFS runs to certainly keep up the possibility, albeit just a possibility, of something rather cool.
thanks Nozawaonsen, it is interesting but also paintfull to read this thread - can we fast forward to page 12 or 15 please .
why would you be interested in the weather for 4 November?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Interesting. 18z also goes for a very cold last week of October...
After all it is free
After all it is free
And the 00z GFS goes for a notably cold last week of October too. Particularly for the easternAlps and further north for Scotland too.
Not only that but the op run gets good support from the control too.
Will ECM join in this morning? We will get an idea in 30 minutes...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
To avoid the instability problems of last season isn't a period of intense cold before the snow comes the ideal scenario? Roughly how long would this need to be, just a few days?
From what you're saying this could well be on cards?
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Snow Hound, in terms of intense cold the last few GFS operational runs have been suggesting what would certainly be a period of colder than average weather at the end of October. There is support from the control run and consistency from the last few runs. All that builds confidence.
But. At that range that confidence is being built from a low level as the further out the date the lower the confidence you can have in a particular outcome. Moreover with GFS beyond 192 is run at a lower resolution. As a result it's of more interest for the trend it is showing rather than the detail.
Crucially ECM (which is actually a better model than GFS - that's one for the Old World!) is yet to get on board. And you'd really want to see ECM picking up the scent in the next day or two to really increase confidence. ECM is suggesting a cool down at the end of the month from the very mild temperatures likely this weekend, though not at this stage to the extent GFS is proposing (in part because GFS runs out longer).
Back to the heart of your question, last year in the Alps had a particular set of circumstances. A very warm and dry autumn, especially (in terms of anomaly) November followed by a sudden onset of very heavy snow in December. It was this sharp contrast as much as anything else which caused the increased incidence of snow slides last season with the warmer ground insulated under a blanket of snow. A steady and gradual fall to cold temperatures and a steady and gradual build up of the snow pack would seem the best route to stability to me, but would be interested to know if anyone else has any thoughts?
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
horizon wrote:
mooney058 wrote:
thanks Nozawaonsen, it is interesting but also paintfull to read this thread - can we fast forward to page 12 or 15 please .
why would you be interested in the weather for 4 November?
Will see about that - it is only Nozawaonsen who contributes on substance to this thread (some others as well, be he is THE MAN), but even he would not fill 5-7 pages in a couple of weeks, or would he? if so, even better ... roll on page 25 then
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The 06z GFS run moderates the extent of the colder weather at the end of the month coming closer to where ECM was (so cooling in line with seasonal average for the end of October once we get past this weekend).
But at this range it's as much about how a series of runs looks rather than any one run. Let's see how the the 12z looks.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen,
I think you have it about right. Last year the ground was still warm and the snow did not adhere to it. If it gets so cold the ground freezes rock hard and then it snows you also might fail to get adhesion. Ideal would be the first snow falls and the ground freezing together to give a stable base. That seems logical but I am no expert.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Niño 3.4 index ticks up to +0.45. Neutral for now. Currently looks to be borderline neutral/weak El Niño coming up.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18z, as is it's custom, lights the blue touch paper.
But the authority of 00z is what we need to see.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z, as is it's custom, lights the blue touch paper.
But the authority of 00z is what we need to see.
dear old noz you are a tease
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Big differences between GFS 00z (which sticks to it's guns and takes things very cold from 27 October)...
and ECM 00z (which keeps high pressure in place and much milder weather).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
interesting discussion re last year. I wonder if early season was less stable, but later on after snow had been lying for months and some freeze/thaw it was actually more stable?
Based on my week in Stuben at Easter time
10/11 season - very warm spring meant all the off piste faces around Stuben were essentially stripped bare having slid down to the ground
11/12 season - much more stable by Easter, all the above mentioned faces were very much skiable
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looking good for that first real dump on 6th November.
I'd disagree a bit with that assessment, the impression I got from last season was that because the ground had not frozen properly when the snow did come it never properly bonded to the base layer of snow, so the while the upper layers may have been well bonded, the reduction in friction at the snow/ground interface lead to an increased number of full depth avalanches and glide cracks, some of which went on to form avalanches. It may have been true that skier triggered avalanches were fewer last year because of the well bonded upper layers but I think that there were more spontaneous and unpredictable large avalanches than most years. No real evidence to back any of this up.
A video of a full depth avalanche in France last spring (yes, I know one example does not prove anything but it is a cool video) There was at least one other example last spring of a full size avalanche crossing an open piste somewhere in France.
This evening's output continues to support cooler temperatures as we approach the end of October, certainly compared to the milder weather likely this weekend, but possibly more moderated than some of the recent GFS output. That said there is still a significant spread in the ensembles and hence a fair amount of uncertainty.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
If you look at the ensembles on page 5 you'll see an aggressive swing towards much colder temperatures from around 27 October on the 00z GFS. That's in contrast with the 18z run which cooled things after this weekend, but only to around seasonal averages. So still a lot if uncertainty. Will ECM budge in the next 30 minutes?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
We're forecasting a colder than average period from mid-November to late January, with significant snow at times, particularly in the north and east, but with London also seeing snow," Jim Dale of British Weather Services told Metro. "Minimum temperatures are expected to fall to about -10C in southern England and -18C in parts of Scotland.
What is this - Carry On Forecasting
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hahaha.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Dont't worry it won't start snowing heavily until 6th Nov.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Both ECM and GFS going for a notably cold end to October in the Alps from 27 October (arriving in Scotland a couple of days earlier).
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
In just over a week's time the clocks will go back. Which amongst other things means each model run comes out an hour earlier. So the pub run will be in reach!
Still seeing solid support across the models for a strong cool down across the Alps from around 27 October following the current very mild spell. The cold will hit the UK a couple of days earlier.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Now is an end of oct cold spell too early or tantalisingly close to being base building stuff??
kitenski, of course it all really depends on what happens next. In Austria records have just been set for some of the warmest October weather since records began.
That's almost a degree higher, 17 days later than the previous record.
Temperatures look like collapsing within a week to over 20C lower than that. So a real contrast.
Think back to last October and November and it's certainly possible that the temperatures could quickly swing right back up again. The issue then (and to a lesser extent right now) was a block over Europe which pulled very mild air up from the south. From next weekend it's a block over Greenland which looks like causing cold air to pour down from the Arctic.
If that northern blocking set up shop like last autumn's block it could presage an extended really cold spell.
What does this mean for winter? Well pretty much nothing. Much as the pattern shifted dramatically once we got into December 2011 so too could a blocked cold November suddenly become much milder in December. We'll see...
With the likelihood of quite a noticeably colder than average period at the end of October into early November looking increasingly likely. If we were seeing this in a month or twos time it would really be quite something. All good mind you.
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And 18z continues the pattern with some cold weather compared to average from 27 October.
If 18z verified it would continue cold all through to Bonfire night with snow showers, at times heavy, falling to low levels in the Alps.
Scotland would also see snow on high ground, the cold weather pushing down from 25 October (being late October, for much of the rest of the UK this would be unseasonably cold, but probably not snowy).
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen, what temperatures are we talking about for northern England and Scotland please?
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
if so, even better ... roll on page 25 then 
