Beyond that there's a bit of a split in the operational runs with GFS wanting to take the second half of the month warmer than average, whilst ECM heads cooler than average.
What's the betting its going to be ......... average then?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
andyrew, well if the way to calculate the most likely outcome was to to average out the ECM op run and the GFS op run then you might be right. It isn't mind you.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
andyrew, well if the way to calculate the most likely outcome was to to average out the ECM op run and the GFS op run then you might be right. It isn't mind you.
So is there any guage as to which one is more likely to win over. Where are the two forecasts generated from? I'm cheering for ECM!!
Looks like more snow, overnight in the Pyrenees and again on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently looks like a calmer period to follow.
I think that the locals are all praying for a calmer period with the start of Les Vacances pretty soon. Just crazy snow depths at all resorts, incredible but dangerous off-piste.
More snow on the ground this morning, pouring it down now and even heavier snow forecast for later this afternoon and on into the night.
looks like schladming on the edge of systems moving from the south and then east, so not too much forecast for here but we'll see.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
RetroBod, ECM is a cross European model. The super computer is based in Reading in the UK and is one of the top 50 super computers in the world. GFS is a US based model. ECM is generally considered the better model (though that certainly doesn't mean it is always right and GFS wrong). GFS makes much more of it's data freely available hence it gets used much more.
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, thanks I remain in awe of your ability to interpret the wiggles. I just like it cool when skiing. Not necessarily Baltic but mid-afternoon slush is not my thing, so to see the GFS tracking slightly cooler in line with the ECM I got a bit excitable.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
nozawaonsen, thanks I remain in awe of your ability to interpret the wiggles. I just like it cool when skiing. Not necessarily Baltic but mid-afternoon slush is not my thing, so to see the GFS tracking slightly cooler in line with the ECM I got a bit excitable.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Looks like more snow at the end of the week to low altitudes in the northern Alps. Not huge, but should freshen things up ahead of the weekend.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Perfecto
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen, we have had 24 hours non-stop down here in Munich, should be epic by the time I get home to my village in the mountains. No sign of it stopping yet either according to the forecasts on TV this morning!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Samerberg Sue, don't know which village you mean but ain't been snowing much around here.
Presumably it's too early to call for PdS, 9-16 March?
I am reading all of this stuff about how great the snow is and starting to worry that having booked a little later this year for a change, I will miss all of the good stuff
I am reading all of this stuff about how great the snow is and starting to worry that having booked a little later this year for a change, I will miss all of the good stuff
some seasons are pretty good all the way through, some pretty bad. Or good first half, poor second half or vice versa. Lap of the weather gods. As I understand it, having a good January and early February doesn't make it any less (or more) likely to have a good mid-March. So don't torture yourself on the basis that there was just one boat this year, and you missed it.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
bruisedskier wrote:
Garethb, got to PYRENEES SNOW REPORT 2012/13
Should put a smile on your face.
I have had a good look at it, I am already itching to be out there - they have pretty much double the snow depth compared to last year. Just interested if the temps will stay reasonably cold and hoping snow gets slightly topped up to make it still perfect when we go! Even been getting myself fit before I go so I can keep up with my son!
After all it is free
After all it is free
pam w wrote:
Quote:
I am reading all of this stuff about how great the snow is and starting to worry that having booked a little later this year for a change, I will miss all of the good stuff
some seasons are pretty good all the way through, some pretty bad. Or good first half, poor second half or vice versa. Lap of the weather gods. As I understand it, having a good January and early February doesn't make it any less (or more) likely to have a good mid-March. So don't torture yourself on the basis that there was just one boat this year, and you missed it.
Thanks. I do this every year and stress right out!
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
An interesting read but the vital info missing is with the increase in backcountry riders has there been an increase in accidents? I'm sure I've read in Europe that the number of avalanche fatalities has remained quite constant but the number of off piste riders had been increasing, Maybe someone can point to the stats I'm sure I've seen before.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
SLF on tomorrow's snow.
"By Friday evening:
northern flank of the Alps, Lower Valais, northern Grisons: 5 to 15 cm
further to the south, less; on the southern flank of the Alps it will be dry"
Looking into FI GFS is keen to pull in a cold easterly. Possibly accompanied by snow in the Pyrenees, though temperatures would be a little milder being further west.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Thanks for all the updates, this is really keeping me going on the lead up to my second week. Hopefully be as good as it was a month ago!
Garethb, yes, indeed more so in the Pyrenees as warm air is pulled up from North Africa. But it's a long way out and I would have no confidence in it's extent or duration. In any case it will only be early March so not that warm in any case.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Garethb, yes, indeed more so in the Pyrenees as warm air is pulled up from North Africa. But it's a long way out and I would have no confidence in it's extent or duration. In any case it will only be early March so not that warm in any case.
Colder by the end of the week, temperatures down to -25C in places overnight.
A bit of a change as we end February and start March with at least for a time the Atlantic taking charge and raising the possibility of milder and more unsettled conditions.
Still plenty to get up to in the snow...
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Very similar pattern this morning with snow into western Austria overnight.
There's still a signal for warmer weather at the start of the month. ECM has high pressure targeting the UK. Though GFS has low pressure pushing across in far FI.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
ECM 00z op run isn't buying a milder start to March at present. GFS op sticking to it's gins, though a number of the runs (including the control) actually go very cold. So whilst the trend ober recent runs is for a spell of milder weather at the start of March there's a lot of uncertainty.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
Just interested if the temps will stay reasonably cold and hoping snow gets slightly topped up to make it still perfect when we go! Even been getting myself fit before I go so I can keep up with my son!
