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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@bruisedskier, I really wouldn't be worrying about half term week at this stage?

Firstly any long term forecast needs to be very heavily caveated (regardless of whether it was made some time ago or not). I'm also not sure whether the forecast you are talking about relates to the UK or the Alps? It can be freezing in the Alps and balmy in the UK.

Moreover long term forecasts like CFS are giving you an idea of the background not the detail. It just is not possible to forecast the weather in detail at that range. So back in early December CFS saw the overall pattern for January as being warm, but looking at it a couple of months ago wouldn't help you see the colder period we are about to enter.

Anyway since you ask what it currently shows it as +NAO which would mean a mild and wetter background pattern (which has broadly speaking been what CFS has been showing for this winter for some months).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I believe the two pence coin is a post decimalisation invention.........

The threppenny bit will make a welcome return, in spirit at least, as the new one pound coin this summer. Not before time either as it is thought that 30% of all 'pounds' in circulation currently are forgeries.....
Hence the 'bit' with a bi-metal construction The different metal centre renders it much less easy to copy. Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I think you're right about the tuppenybit @Maersk. Farthing, ha'pence, penny, threepence, sixpence.
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@Noza, thanks for the constructive reply. Like everyone on here I appreciate the discussions regarding the weather forecasts, this being part of the reason for asking you the question in the first place.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Here's some indications from WRF of how the snow will fall over the next few days. WRF is a good short term model, but obviously the detail is more unrelaible as we press on.

There's a lot to come at altitude over the next 24 hours, but temperatures don't start to cool substantially until tomorrow afternoon so it will be rain lower down. Beyond that though there should be a lot of snow to low levels. The western Alps and the Arlberg look like doing particulalry well (though the south will also see some fresh). It will of course mean frequently low visibility, winds looks strong and avalanche risk will rise.

Sunday

1500z bulding in the west

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=21#model

Monday

0600z into the eastern Alps

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=36#model

0900z into the southern Alps

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=39#model

1500z still going strong in the northern Alps

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

Tuesday

0300z Rebuilding in the western Alps and colder by now.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=57#model

0900z Strengthening in western Alps and pushing east

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=63#model

2100z still going in the northern Alps

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=75#model

Wednesday

0300z strengthening again in the west

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=81#model

0600z pushing east

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=84#model

1200z lessening off in the west, still going in the east.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=90#model

1500z still in the east.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=93#model

Thursday

00z pretty much faded out...

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=102#model

So that's that and... whoaahh!... no it's not!

0300z back hard in the west.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=105#model

0600z building in the west.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=108#model

0900z heading south and east.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=111#model
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pam w wrote:
The MF forecast on display in the tourist office says on Tuesday the weather "devient epouvantable" Shocked
My Collins French Dictionary translates "epouvantable" as "appalling, dreadful". But i think this refers to snow-fall. Interesting how there are such different attitudes. Most on this forum (except those trying to travel, of course) will be delighted. Appalling, dreadful for us would be yet more rain.
(La Plagne above 1400m looking just fine, and clearly cold up top (ice fixed to pylons), but Montalbert at 1350m looking rather sad)
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I hope all of this means the Eastern Alps will finally see some descent snowfall. 35cm on the upper slopes for the Skiwelt isn't all that great. Bergfex suggesting >25cm down to the valley in Ellmau by Saturday / Sunday. Any chance of this actually panning out?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
davidof wrote:
Commentators are calling the situation "catastropic" for the region.

The cameras at VdL make for sad viewing. Can't believe the one at the top of Clos de la Balme looking down one of our favourite pistes. I know there's 4 weeks until we're due to arrive and that could/should change everything but I guess this is having a big impact on the wintersports and related businesses.

@davidof, are other outlying areas around Grenoble suffering the same or is the Vercors getting a particularly rough deal weatherwise?
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@Jonpim, I imagine that the "epouvantable" also refers to exceptional wind speeds. Big snow plus big winds are a combo which can close lots of lifts. Even whole resorts. Even in my resort, where avalanche risk is rarely an issue, winds lower than those being forecast have sometimes closed ALL the chairlifts even though the highest is only just over 2000m.
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Looks like quite a wild week at altitude in the western Alps.
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@Peter S, Just look at tignes!! http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Tignes/6day/top
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've just come back from a week skiing in Megeve. Most of the skiing happens between 1200m and 1800m. It snowed every night and almost every day. A lot of fresh powder ON piste. A lot of snow even at resort level. We got lucky since it started snowing the day we arrived following a month drought but we had the time of our lives!

Next trip is Peisey-Vallandry for Easter week. Is it too early to start worrying? It seems worrying worked for me this time around Very Happy Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Doesn't look like the glacier will be open for a while yet Shocked
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
grazzenger wrote:
@davidof, are other outlying areas around Grenoble suffering the same or is the Vercors getting a particularly rough deal weatherwise?

7 Laux is closed, it looks sad at the bottom of the runs today but not so bad above 1600 meters on piste, 1800 meters off. They say they are closed due to high winds but I expect there are not enough skiers as the Pipay access at 1550 meters has snow. Chamrousse is damp and worn but much higher at 1700 meters.

Allevard doesn't look great at the bottom of the runs at 1450 m.



but ok, if somewhat damp, at 1650

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

Whitegold
FreeRider
Posts: 5824

It's steadily turning into one of the worst seasons of all time for the European Alps.

High hopes in Nov.
Tropical in Dec.
Rain in Jan


Is this true.

I am off to Les Gets on the 2nd Feb and all the indications in the next 7-10 days points to the complete opposite of what you say. It looks like there are metres of the stuff coming down and a very cold couple of weeks to make loads of snow so if the second half of jan warms up all will be ok.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
December was tropical yes but unless I'm missing something, January has been pretty good so far with meters of snow falling to pretty low altitudes and more is in the forecast.

mheadbee wrote:
Quote:

Whitegold
FreeRider
Posts: 5824

It's steadily turning into one of the worst seasons of all time for the European Alps.

High hopes in Nov.
Tropical in Dec.
Rain in Jan


Is this true.

I am off to Les Gets on the 2nd Feb and all the indications in the next 7-10 days points to the complete opposite of what you say. It looks like there are metres of the stuff coming down and a very cold couple of weeks to make loads of snow so if the second half of jan warms up all will be ok.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
What is a Nordstau? It's when air pouring down from the north hits a great big obstacle. Like the Alps. The weather piles up. This causes already cool air to rise as it pushes up agianst the mountain and release moisture causing a lot of snow to fall on the northern side of the Alps. If you have a large anticylone (high pressure) over the Azores or UK and a depression (low pressure) over Scandinavia the effect draws large amount of cold air down towards the Alps. Remember air moves clockwise round an anticyclone and anti clockwise round a depression. So the two of them work in concert.

This is the example the Power Guide.de uses from wetter.de and it illustrates it well.



What is a Sudstau? A sudstau has low pressure to the west of the Alps and high pressure to the east of the Alps. It draws a lot of moisture up from the Mediterranean which hits an obstacle. The Alps. The weather piles up and as it rises releases a lot of moisture on the south side of the Alps.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 10-01-16 15:39; edited 4 times in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@zinekar, no, meters of snow have NOT fallen to low altitude. Its been raining heavily as high as 2300m at times and the modest snow which fell a week ago has been hammered. Lets hope that the snow next week gives lower areas there first decent dump.
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zinekar wrote:
January has been pretty good so far with meters of snow falling to pretty low altitudes and more is in the forecast.
Snowline has been up and down a lot of the last few days, with rain to high levels (2200m or so where I am in Les Arcs) as well as snow to the valley floor (700m or so). High resorts have benefitted from the snow, lower resorts have struggled with the rain.
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pam w wrote:
@zinekar, no, meters of snow have NOT fallen to low altitude. Its been raining heavily as high as 2300m at times and the modest snow which fell a week ago has been hammered. Lets hope that the snow next week gives lower areas there first decent dump.

I was in Megeve from 2-7 January and I can assure you that it was snowing heavily at village level every day and every night. it's true that the snow turned into rain the minute we were leaving but that is not reflective of the 5 days I spent there.
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@mheadbee, @zinekar that post does seem to deliberately ignore the fact that the weather is about to change. One might almost think it had been done to be deliberately provocative.

That said in terms of the the snowfall and temperature it has, as Whitegold says, been a very poor start to the season (that doesn't mean people will not necessarily have been having fun out skiing, but that's a seperate issue).

Although there has now been substantial snow to high levels in the western Alps in particular that has also fallen as rain in much of the west up to 2000m and higher in the last few days. Lower down that has stripped away some of the snow that had fallen earlier this week. On the other hand by the middle of this week it looks like it will again have snowed to low levels so things should be looking a lot better for most of the Alps.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
zinekar wrote:
I've just come back from a week skiing in Megeve. Most of the skiing happens between 1200m and 1800m. It snowed every night and almost every day. A lot of fresh powder ON piste. A lot of snow even at resort level. We got lucky since it started snowing the day we arrived following a month drought but we had the time of our lives!



1200m to 1800m is very low for France? That's Kitzbuhel altitudes. Does Megeve generally struggle?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@pam w, I know you're a glass half-full type, but that's the first time I've seen 1m+ of snow referred to as "modest".

Conditions are bad at VERY low altitudes. Anything above 1500m is in great shape.
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Quote:

Remember air moves anti clockwise round an anticyclone and clockwise round a depression. So the two of them work in concert.

Noz - but only in the southern hemisphere wink

T'other way round in the Alps!
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chocksaway wrote:
Quote:

Remember air moves anti clockwise round an anticyclone and clockwise round a depression. So the two of them work in concert.

Noz - but only in the southern hemisphere wink

T'other way round in the Alps!


Yeah I've already corrected that was trying to do too many things at once.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sun 10-01-16 15:58; edited 1 time in total
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zinekar wrote:
pam w wrote:
@zinekar, no, meters of snow have NOT fallen to low altitude. Its been raining heavily as high as 2300m at times and the modest snow which fell a week ago has been hammered. Lets hope that the snow next week gives lower areas there first decent dump.

I was in Megeve from 2-7 January and I can assure you that it was snowing heavily at village level every day and every night. it's true that the snow turned into rain the minute we were leaving but that is not reflective of the 5 days I spent there.


Megeve isn't too bad at the moment. It is currently raining on the Mont d'Arbois but they've got a reasonable amount open. The off piste looks soggy with lots of rain channels but a return to cold weather and 50cm of fresh will see them well set for the February holidays, baring disaster.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
Allevard doesn't look great at the bottom of the runs at 1450 m.
(Sorry, more thread drift) I didn't realise that was an actual ski station. My mother's family hid there during the war. Don't think much skiing was on the cards...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hurtle wrote:
Quote:
Allevard doesn't look great at the bottom of the runs at 1450 m.
(Sorry, more thread drift) I didn't realise that was an actual ski station. My mother's family hid there during the war. Don't think much skiing was on the cards...


The ski club d'Allevard dates from the 1920s but the first lifts were installed in 1955. It is an excellent little area, I prefer it to the 7 Laux (too many pseudo freeraiders) and Chamrousse (too many out of control beginners) but it lacks a bit in mountain restaurants. I'll let the mayor know your mother hid there if you like wink

The actual town is very nice although a bit full of dopeys.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@davidof, no, not my mother, she was in London, but aunt, uncles, grandparents. One of my uncles was a doctor - often paid with food rather than money, I gather.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Hurtle, Now there's a story that needs to be told. Reading about history is one thing, but hearing the personal stories removes any academic detachment.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hurtle wrote:
@davidof, no, not my mother, she was in London, but aunt, uncles, grandparents. One of my uncles was a doctor - often paid with food rather than money, I gather.


If you have any information you can add it here: http://www.ajpn.org/commune-Allevard-38006.html they are looking for information about families that were refugees in the area.

There were a lot of Jewish refugees, amongst others, in the area, fleeing from the German occupation in the north and later from the Vichy regime. The Italian authorities occupying the Isere opposed deportations but after Italy was invaded the Germans took over and things got much tougher. Of note in the link, two families arrested in Allevard, they were sent to Drancy. A French concentration camp administered by the Caisse des Depots where they would have been fleeced of any valuables before being deported to Auschwitz. The Caisse de Depots set up the Compagnie des Alpes.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Hurtle, @davidof, fascinating, and reminds us that those events really aren't that long ago.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

The Caisse de Depots set up the Compagnie des Alpes.


At the risk of having Godwin's law hauled down on my head that explains much and also the on mountain catering around Chamonix... Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 10-01-16 16:55; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

If you have any information you can add it here: http://www.ajpn.org/commune-Allevard-38006.html they are looking for information about families that were refugees in the area.
That makes sober reading. I don't have much info, my cousins whose parents were there would have more, I guess.
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Apologies to those who are desperate for snowy wigglies.
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Can't wait to see what the convo here is like in a few days after snow-hell breaks loose - hold on tight for an exciting ride!
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In terms of geographic location, is La Tania considered to be Weatern Alps?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
With all the wind won't any off piste be horribly destroyed anyway?
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Mick8417 wrote:
In terms of geographic location, is La Tania considered to be Weatern Alps?
Yes.
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Western , even
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