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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Drew Carey, at present it looks like there could be some light snowfall between now and then. There is currently no strong signal for anything major for the moment. If there is I will definitely say so!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
@Drew Carey, as a beginner - to be honest - you want flat pistes and blue skies. Everything else is luxury...


Indeed, nice pistes and blue sky would be heaven but part of me really wants it to at the very least have enough snow to get rid of the brown / green sides to pistes!

@nozawaonsen

Cheers, will keep an eye out daily for all the posts and keep doing my daily snow dance to the gods.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Drew, you are not on your own - another beginner here going for the first time to La Plagne, although in 2nd week in Feb and it's a way off but I am sure/hope it will improve.
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My trip starts in les trois vallées from Jan 21 and i'm obviously concerned. I can't help but check the forecasts multiple times a day, as if it's going to impact what happens. It's like a sick disease. I clearly worry too much, as being in such a beautiful place in the world sure beats work; regardless of powder.

I've been in a similiar situation prior to a Japan trip a few years ago. First couple of days were minimal snow then it snowed 2 meters in 5 days and it was on from there. Here's hoping.
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Am I right in thinking 1mm precipitation = 1cm snow? Sorry if this has been asked before.
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@SkiTsar, as a rough rule of thumb yes.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, thanks!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@SkiTsar, this has some interesting background.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/winter-weather/measuring-snow
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I know there is a bit of anxiety about the Southern Alps. As most have said, the coming week is pretty dry except for an occasional light snow shower.

The 13th looks okay for some snow showers for Southern Europe. Possible 5-10cm according to current charts.

Now for the 15-19 Jan Period (I know it's far away, but stay with me)

The EPS Control shows a good low on Southern Italy, circulating snow across most of the Alps including Southern Europe.

Now for NCEP spag, which shows a light deep low on 5640 and latest Control. Not as great as EPS, but potential for Southern Europe snow

And finally CFS, that hints a trough coming across the Alps including the South. This is also potential.

With a bit of model convergence, I am sure many will watch this storm. This can always change though, for the better or the worst.
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Enjoy the snow that has been falling.
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@neslot, I wouldn't let it worry you. I did the same thing over Christmas. We booked a trip to The Arlberg for 12/26 - 1/2. I was taking American friends who'd I'd convinced to ski in Austria after talking it up for years. But instead of fresh powder we got the driest December that region had seen in 25+ years. I worried my head off, practically ruined the Holidays (my wife was furious!) in the run up to our departure and you know what? It was all for not. No, we didn't get snow (that happened the day after we left), but we had a fantastic time. Sun, nice artificial pistes, good food, great apres and endless views of the Alps that sure beat the hell out of my drab office view in NYC.

I'll pray for snow for you, but you'll have a blast regardless. Enjoy!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
About 2 meters of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range in Cali. from the storms that came through beginning of this week. More still to come, plus a bit of a warm up and rain. Heard tell when all is said and done after the next round of storms coming through on the weekend that about 3 meters of snow will have been dumped on the Sierra's.

And of course all that snow+wind+temp swings = http://www.ktvn.com/story/34194245/portion-of-mt-rose-highway-closed-after-avalanche2
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Toadman, the photographs coming from Mammoth show an incredible amour of snow. Surely this is the Californian resorts set up for the winter now? Also very good news for the severe drought the state is currently in. Tahoe should fill up to maximum capacity when the melt and thaw starts which is great news.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Weather is clearing in Austria... Snow is deep... And it is very cold! (-25C at the top of Valluga at the moment according to the telly).

Here's how WRF sees the next five days. As expected the majority of snowfall in this coming period still looks like falling in parts of Austria, though there will be light snow showers elsewhere in parts of France and Italy.



Next Saturday on ECM holds some broader promise.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Jellybeans1000, great post - I know it's far off and clutching on straws (Via Lattea in 2 weeks), so all that taken on board - but thanks for the level of detail!

Ps what on earth (literally) is the "NCEP spag" showing? First time I've seen that (I think)?

Thanks!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Big GFS downgrade on expected ppn for next week and a return to high pressure on the last few runs out in FI. At least ECM is holding up well (ppn and low pressure).

That NCEP spag reminds me of a Dennis Coffey cover
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@Jellybeans1000, hopefully that low will happen, but as is so often the case.......

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away Toofy Grin

But does tie in with the arrival of my SnowGod mate (five or so pages back)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ArlbergMeister wrote:
@neslot, I wouldn't let it worry you. I did the same thing over Christmas. We booked a trip to The Arlberg for 12/26 - 1/2. I was taking American friends who'd I'd convinced to ski in Austria after talking it up for years. But instead of fresh powder we got the driest December that region had seen in 25+ years. I worried my head off, practically ruined the Holidays (my wife was furious!) in the run up to our departure and you know what? It was all for not. No, we didn't get snow (that happened the day after we left), but we had a fantastic time. Sun, nice artificial pistes, good food, great apres and endless views of the Alps that sure beat the hell out of my drab office view in NYC.

I'll pray for snow for you, but you'll have a blast regardless. Enjoy!!


Don't know about NYC - went there this last November - absolutely glorious - was wearing shorts in 20°C in Central Park with the leaves turning. The lake where they take wedding photos is my panorama wallpaper across two screens ...

We left on the 9th - the day after the election - it had started raining. Wonder why...
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@Jellybeans1000, why on earth would you want to show that spag chart on this forum?? I remember seeing these charts on the very rare occasion on weather forecast forums. They might make sense to someone who follows forecasting as a hobby. But do you honestly think the majority of people on this forum will have any idea of what that chart is showing??
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@SkiTsar, this has some interesting background.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/winter-weather/measuring-snow


Thanks that's interesting @nozawaonsen, seems like it's very much dependent on the temperature.
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I've tried to follow this as best I can but it's blooming confusing. Whilst I still try to figure out how to read all these various graphs could one of you fine, knowledgeable lot describe what the Via Lattea area is looking like for the foreseeable?

Heading to Montgenevre at the end of Jan and hoping that the current snow cover they do have will be nicely topped up by then.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Fridge03, nothing in the reliable timeframe unfortunately for that part of the Alps. All to play for of course!
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@nozawaonsen, That's what I'm fearing. Although they do already have a good base and coverage. Just some fresh stuff would be nice!
At least it's chuffin cold there at the moment so the cannons are running.
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neslot wrote:
My trip starts in les trois vallées from Jan 21 and i'm obviously concerned. I can't help but check the forecasts multiple times a day, as if it's going to impact what happens. It's like a sick disease. I clearly worry too much, as being in such a beautiful place in the world sure beats work; regardless of powder.

I've been in a similiar situation prior to a Japan trip a few years ago. First couple of days were minimal snow then it snowed 2 meters in 5 days and it was on from there. Here's hoping.


Neslot, my kids are there right now and are having a great time up high on what is old November snow and man made. Of course if none falls it might get scalped, but we live in hope. I am supposed to be there too but had to cancel the day before. I'm eying the 21st ish like you.

CG
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First real snow in the Vosges, Planche des Belles Filles is opening (some areas previously opened runs on artificial snow)

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Fridge03 wrote:
@nozawaonsen, That's what I'm fearing. Although they do already have a good base and coverage. Just some fresh stuff would be nice!
At least it's chuffin cold there at the moment so the cannons are running.


I'm heading to Serre Chevalier this afternoon and been watching forecasts and webcams like a hawk. Snow conditions generally seem pretty good in this area considering and as you say, the snow cannons are working to keep the pistes topped up. Last year I woke up to lovely fresh snow almost every day, but it was raining and foggy during the day, had a great week still. This year it looks like bright sunshine but hard packed pistes, which should be just as fun. A shame we probably won't be doing any gnarly off-piste (side-piste) skiing, but the sunshine will be nice.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen - any thoughts on snow in Arlerg (ish) - amounts next week seem to be changing all the time - dropping and more sunshine (from a purely selfish level I welcome it)
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Northern French Alps facing drought restrictions. I wonder how acceptable it will be for ski resorts to continue spunking artificial snow into the air when there are restrictions in the valleys? Although the questions may not come up, areas like Avoriaz are said to only have a few weeks reserves left.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
... areas like Avoriaz are said to only have a few weeks reserves left.
Just before New Year the water level in the big reservoir built a few years ago above Arc 2000 was significantly lower than I've ever seen.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

The water level in the big reservoir built a few years ago above Arc 2000 was significantly lower than I've ever seen just before New Year.



I don't know about Les Arcs side, but here in Les Coches the cannons have been running continuously for 5 days now (day and night many of them) - I think just after NY they hit the panic button, when they realised no significant natural snow was likely for a while, and are just opening as much on artificial as they can, using up all the water in the process!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
RobinS wrote:
Quote:

The water level in the big reservoir built a few years ago above Arc 2000 was significantly lower than I've ever seen just before New Year.



I don't know about Les Arcs side, but here in Les Coches the cannons have been running continuously for 5 days now (day and night many of them) - I think just after NY they hit the panic button, when they realised no significant natural snow was likely for a while, and are just opening as much on artificial as they can, using up all the water in the process!


They are probably not wrong, they need to save February at almost any cost.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@davidof, said
Quote:

I wonder how acceptable it will be for ski resorts to continue spunking artificial snow into the air when there are restrictions in the valleys?

I wonder if there are any stats on the correlation between end-of-season meltwater runoff and artificial snowmaking. Could it be that the snowmaking is temporarily moving the reservoirs up onto the side of the hill?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
There appears to be significant downgrades in the snow forecast for all but Austria. Very disappointing. Eager to see the experts on here's input.
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There appears to be significant downgrades in the snow forecast for all but Austria. Very disappointing. Eager to see the experts on here's input.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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There appears to be significant downgrades in the snow forecast for all but Austria. Very disappointing. Eager to see the experts on here's input.
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Ptspeak wrote:
There appears to be significant downgrades in the snow forecast for all but Austria. Very disappointing. Eager to see the experts on here's input.


Even West Austria is now downgraded
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Tuesday - Thursday not looking like a game changer in the French Northern Alps. Maybe 20-30cm in the pre-alps, less in the interior ranges. So similar to this week, a bit more sustained snowfall locally.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
may not be a game changer but at least everything (including the village) looks white in Les Contamines - a morale boost! If they get 20-30cm next week even quite a lot of the off piste will be skiable (needs so little cover there).
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Any snow for the French alps is a game changer!

The usual MF downgrade had just happened regarding the 10th.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Fri 6-01-17 14:27; edited 1 time in total
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@geoffers, the great majority of snow evaporates, rather than swelling the spring watercourses.

I am sitting in the pre-Alpes and 30 cms would see our pistes ( on pasture) open. snowHead
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