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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Les Contamines on the 17th, bits of the ski area look a lot better. This is the view of the same slope today

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Gaza, make sure it's a pork pie hat
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
12z GFS rolling out. Should have a feel for how it handles the possibility of a pattern shift in a bit under an hour...
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oh you tease.....
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It looks like this huge storm will miss the Pyrenees and hit hard on the Alps. I know it still to far to be sure, but the pattern doesn´t look good for Andorra. Will be skiing Grandvalira and Baqueira-Beret first week of February and I hope things change till there. El niño years are big gambles in terms of weather/snow, especially a huge one like this years El niño.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS rolling out. Should have a feel for how it handles the possibility of a pattern shift in a bit under an hour...


Whoever does skiclub and snow-forecast have 9 days of sun now for Kitzbuhel (from lunchtime today - after earlier showing a change 9 days out) - and little sign of temp change! I am amazed how much of Kitz and Saalbach is still open - too warm for much snow cannon work even. I have read that dry air /low dew point means that even if temp is above zero, there isn't too much melt.
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@buchanan101, they are both just computer generated versions of the GFS op run. As it slides back and forth so do they.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ok, I knew there was an engine behind it, thanks

Snowforecast site is interesting - they say that snow can freeze overnight even when air temps (as indicated - they are a few metres up) are positive and with freezing levels up to 5000m...,
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@buchanan101, yep particularly on dry clear nights.
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buchanan101 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS rolling out. Should have a feel for how it handles the possibility of a pattern shift in a bit under an hour...


Whoever does skiclub and snow-forecast have 9 days of sun now for Kitzbuhel (from lunchtime today - after earlier showing a change 9 days out) - and little sign of temp change! I am amazed how much of Kitz and Saalbach is still open - too warm for much snow cannon work even. I have read that dry air /low dew point means that even if temp is above zero, there isn't too much melt.


My understanding is that air temperature and sun intensity are the major factors in snowmelt. Anything else is a secondary factor (such as heat absortion of the ground; wind speed/temperature etc). But I suspect there are different factors involved with snowmelt of compacted snow on a piste
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at least the forecast currently is "very dry air" I saw somewhere
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
If compacted snow freezes I can imagine it will take a fair bit of energy to melt - after all ice in drinks works because of the energy needed to phase change it, not because of the cooling effect of ice before it melts (330KJ/kg is needed). It's the same energy needed to increase the temperature of the same amount of water or ice by 70°C. (i.e. ice at -10°C does 87% of drink cooling by the melting action not the increase from -10°C to 0°C)

I think dew point has a fair bit to do with how much snow melts after reading up a bit (alongside sun and air temp). Snow machines work better with dry air as well. They can work above freezing if the air is dry enough; and at higher temps again if chemicals used, but Austria (at least) claims not to use these.
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If you think about it, at night, on a mountain you've not got much between the snow and outer space at -273C (if you point an infrared thermometer skywards it will register some seriously low temps). Snow will radiate a huge amount of heat in those conditions. It can refreeze even if the air temperature is +10C. This also means that slopes can be very hard and icy despite the warm temperatures.

The big killer for snow are warm winds: chinook (the snow eater) and foehn. We've not had too much of that this year otherwise the season would be dead, rather than dying. Last year had more snow at the start of the season in the French N.A. but it was destroyed in a weekend by a foehn.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Rain doesn't seem to help either.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Below is a chart with snowmaking temperatures, basically wet bulb temperature is important. For example at Val d'Isere (1800m.) this afternoon the air temperature was 2C but the wet bulb temperature -4C - you can just about make snow at this temperature. At les 7 laux (1350m.) the air temp is currently 8C and wet bulb temp 6C. Boo no snow making at that altitude.

France has a moratorium on snowmax as well as Austria.

http://www.snowathome.com/pdf/wet_bulb_chart_celsius.pdf

The amount of snow that can be produced and the quality is very temperature dependent, basically colder is better so don't get too many hopes up at +2C snow making!

The best snowmakers measure temperature and humidity parameters at each snow canon and adjust the flow of water, valves etc individually as it can vary over a few meters altitude and over time. With basic systems a pisteur will measure the humidity and temperature by hand at the top and bottom of the snow making and hand adjust the canons for an average scenario. (ps the figures I gave are just from the village weather stations and will be different on the slopes).


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 22-12-15 18:04; edited 2 times in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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davidof wrote:
Here is a chart with snowmaking temperatures, basically wet bulb temperature is important. For example at Val d'Isere this afternoon the air temperature was 2C but the wet bulb temperature -4C - you can just about make snow at this temperature. France has a moratorium on snowmax as well as Austria.

http://www.snowathome.com/pdf/wet_bulb_chart_celsius.pdf


Very interesting, thank you. Saalbach claim not to make above -4°C, but I bet they are...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@davidof Thats just tipped me over the edge, now, not only am I looking at snow forecasts, I'm now looking for snow making weather :picard:
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Here you go Buchanan, home snowmaker, wet bulb temperature of -7C, air temperature +2C, near Toulouse:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x10k6j_canon-a-neige-2_creation

the snow wouldn't settle however.

but with a bit of effort:



Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 22-12-15 18:13; edited 1 time in total
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12z GFS keeps the break down in place. Bringing heavy snow to the Alps from 02 Jan.

The Pyerenees would see snow too though the snow line would be high at times.
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*tries not to get excited*
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And if you are American you can do this:

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
or even better, at 200m in the Alsace

http://www.nouvo.ch/2012/02/mon-canon-fait-de-la-neige
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen "heavy snow to the Alps from 02 Jan"

That's transfer day at the end of new New Year week, like last year!
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@stodge, I wouldn't read too much into that at this stage. It's over 10 days out. Still not certain it will happen and the detail (strength, location, snowline) are all too far out to have any confidence in.
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davidof wrote:
or even better, at 200m in the Alsace

http://www.nouvo.ch/2012/02/mon-canon-fait-de-la-neige


Eric, what a guy! Very Happy
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@stodge, similar, last year was on Saturday 27th!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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"OK...Mr Weather God....you've had your fun...I'm getting a bit bored now...it isn't funny anymore....turn the cloud and snow machines on up there in the sky please...please....just do it! For me. I've been a good girl this year....or...or.....or... I'll thcweam and thwceam and thcweam and make myself sick....

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
BwwaaHHHHHHH!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
GFS starting to get support from it's control run, but still no buy in from ECM...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, can't you have a word with ECM...lol
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
https://www.snowathome.com/free_plans.php
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I've always wanted to build a diy snow machine for the garden, apparently it can be done with a re-jigged jetwash lol
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Not so good if your on a water meter! Would be a great little project though!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
1964

http://www.rts.ch/archives/tv/information/continents-sans-visa/3440897-un-hiver-sans-neige.html



Interesting to see some Swiss ski resorts, such as Laax, are now starting to talk openly about closing their lower slopes forever and only running Winter lifts above 2000m in the future.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/winter-vs-summer_poor-snow-forcing-swiss-ski-resorts-rethink/41853556
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Perty wrote:
"OK...Mr Weather God....you've had your fun...I'm getting a bit bored now...it isn't funny anymore....turn the cloud and snow machines on up there in the sky please...please....just do it! For me. I've been a good girl this year....or...or.....or... I'll thcweam and thwceam and thcweam and make myself sick....

Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad
BwwaaHHHHHHH!


Steady on Miss Bott. Threatening the weather gods can make them angry. On the other hand maybe that's what we won't. snowHead
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Er, what exactly are ECM and GFS??

Can't get excited as I don't know what they are... Confused
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Re Whitegold's post: "This is the third Christmas season in a row with little or no snowfall. Tourism bosses are now wondering whether to abandon ski activities on lower slopes so they can concentrate their efforts on making money during the summer months instead. "

I believe thatnit was something like 1933 when Kitzbuhel council decided it was unfair to advertise xmas as winter sports season as it was too early.

Plus ca change ...
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@Whitegold, maybe their longterm plan is to falsely elevate the higher slopes so that we have prosthetic 5,000m mountains snowHead
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
mountainaddict wrote:
what exactly are ECM and GFS??

http://bfy.tw/3PSb
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18Z is a belter snowHead
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Yep 18z has the first fringes of snow arriving on 30 December in the western Alps then snowing through the Alps as a whole pretty much the first week of January.
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