 Poster: A snowHead
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im off to saalbach in next hour.......
one week early I think 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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daveqpr, Cancel, don't bother going, think of the CO2 emmissions you will save..... 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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AxsMan
Wetterzentrale or Chemmy ? 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Actually that picture (the first one) should really be on the 'DNA sample' thread. Chemmy can have a sample from me anytime 
OK, time for the Cold baths and meds - nurse!
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Has the GFS crashed with all the snowheads trying to view it, I can only see the Friday 18z runs.....
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| kitenski wrote: |
| Has the GFS crashed with all the snowheads trying to view it, I can only see the Friday 18z runs..... |
Can now see the Sat 18z - how depressing, now staying too warm for the coming week. Backed up by local austrian forecast for schladming, +18 expected today in town, though it's just below freezing in valley right now but +5 at the top. The week ahead cooling a little but still knocking on double figures in town. Lots of precipitation from wed onwards but could be rain for most the mountain.
Somone give us some hope, i'm running out of sunscream.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Depressing news for the Pyrenees also, temperatures remaining high, and the earlier signs of snow around the 1st has totally disappeared. The sad thing is I was really looking forward to trying out my new B3's in the white fluffy stuff which fell in vast quantities this week last year.
Time to think about planning the garden for spring...................
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| Quote: |
running out of sunscream
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Is sunscreaming what you do when it's too warm for snow?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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A wily old man of the mountains that I know said last week that the next heavy snowfall will be around March 1st and sure enough, today snow forecast is promising a decent amount for Saturday March 1st 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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boredsurfin, which would coincide with my next trip  I've been snowed on a lot this season. Hope that continues...
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Hi All,
is the anticpated colder weather and precipitation still on the cards from next weekend onwards?
finding it hard to believe with all of the high temperatures around that it can change so dramatically. Plus I am going to courchevel next Sunday and am not sure i could be that lucky!!
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You know it makes sense.
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mr ted, just looking round on snow-forecast yes, it's going to get cold and snow around the beginning of March. It can change overnight; warm and sunny one day, cold and blizzarding the next. Have faith.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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thanks for the replies. will keep everything crossed and hope the forecasts come true.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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hmmm....not looking quote so good for the weekend all of a sudden! Not a disaster, but the "mega dump" and "big freeze" appear to have evaporated. Oh well, it will be what it will be...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Mega Dump???
5cm's according to the ever optimistic SF , I suppose anything counts after 3 weeks of sunshine.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I don't get it. I truly don't get it. Yes, I realise that some people don't spend a huge amount of time on here but if I was new to a forum or inexperienced at a particular subject, I'd kind of spend a bit of time reading at least a few edited highlights of the thread concerned and try and familiarise myself with the subject at hand before diving in...? Therefore to see, once again, references to Snowforecast (SF) and Metcheck (MC) and the roller-coaster of snow amounts on both those sites mere days after the last time the subject was raised is a little surprising...
Once again... SF and MC use a computerised system whereby the base data (data is plural, in case any grammar nazis are around) are always fed in from the last control run of the weather forecast system of choice (I'm not that interested in what they use, but I'm pretty sure SF uses GFS). This means that if the latest weather run is a warm outlier (i.e. it is a wiggly out on its own at the warm end of the forecast range) then the SF site, guess what? will predict rain instead of snow... it's not a hard concept people. The next run could be one of the colder runs... blimey, now the snow is back! Simply amazing. These runs are done EVERY. SIX. HOURS. It changes a lot. Once again, I don't know how often SF or MC change their "forecasts" but it will all depend on which particular "wiggly" the weather forecasting model chooses as the control run.
SF have improved their prediction model over the past couple of years and do take into account the cooling effect of heavy rain IF the wind is light and therefore it's at least not as bad as it used to be, but ANYTHING that puts an absolute figure on a prediction is begging to be called to account when its wrong, which is 99.9% of the time. How on earth does anyone expect a computerised system to accurately predict, to the cm, how much snow will fall in a given period? If you believe that then you have monkeys in your brain and should be led to a padded cell for your (and my) sanity.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| carled wrote: |
| If you believe that then you have monkeys in your brain and should be led to a padded cell for your (and my) sanity. |
Classic carled!
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Is the green or the blue wiggly used as the control run?
green = Hauptlauf
blue = Kontroll - Lauf
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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oh and SF say:
We use the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather models for our input data. For our purposes these are ideal, not only because they are detailed, reliable and frequently updated, but also, because they are intended for aviation planning. Thus, they contain accurate descriptions of how conditions vary with elevation. This provides the key to how we derive surface temperature over a wide range of altitudes using digital elevation models. When we combine this with preciptiation forecasts, we arrive at snowfall.
Our Snow Forecast Maps are calculated by estimating the temperature on the surface (represented by a 1km digital elevation model) using lapse rates derived from pressure and temperature data. Snowfall is predicted wherever this same model forecasts precipitation falling onto ground that is expected to be below freezing on the basis of its altitude and the lapse rate at that point. The quantity of snow is given by the forecast accumulated precipitation, multiplied by a conservative snow:rain factor (8.0). In some areas, where dry and powdery snow tends to fall, such as central Otago in New Zealand, this factor can sometimes be as great as 12 or more which would lead to an underestimate in snow levels locally and better ski conditions.
Radiometric cooling ? a fix to overestimated temperatures
Several members of the site have commented that in some parts of the World our forecast night time temperatures are higher than actually experienced. The reason for this is that we use "free-air" temps. By interpolating down we treat the ground like it's not there. In reality, at night, snow and dry sand radiate very large amounts of heat energy and so really close to the ground, say a few 10's of m, it can get much colder than the free-air temp, especially when it is clear and wind is light.
So, how to fix it and make our temperature values more realistic?!
Our weather model has a nominal "surface". We have back-calculated this reference
elevation for the whole World and then used our method to predict the temperature on this surface (i.e the free-air temp). We then compare this with the weather model "surface temp" (the temperature at the reference level, corrected for radiometric effects). The difference of modelled surface-temperature MINUS free-air-temp-at-this elevation shows that over the sea there is almost no difference (AS EXPECTED ? since the sea is a great insulator).
Why do weather forecasters seem to have so much trouble forecasting snow?
Snow forecasts are better than they used to be and they continue to improve, but snow forecasting remains one of the more difficult challenges for meteorologists. One reason is that for many of the more intense snows, the heaviest snow amounts fall in surprisingly narrow bands that are on a smaller scale than observing networks and forecast zones. Also, extremely small temperature differences that define the boundary line between rain and snow make night-and-day differences in snow forecasts. This is part of the fun and frustration that makes snow forecasting so interesting.
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kitenski, so.
Is it going to snow at all, in any part of the Alpes, in the (resonably) forseable future?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Mosha Marc wrote: |
kitenski, so.
Is it going to snow at all, in any part of the Alpes, in the (resonably) forseable future? |
yes
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Wonderful
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I've always understood it to be that the green run is the high-res run and this is the one shown in detail in the charts. The blue "kontroll-lauf" is the base-data from which all the other ensembles are derived with minor variations on the parameters. I may be wrong. It does happen on rare occasions.
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You know it makes sense.
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carled, can I just check one thing...the green run kind of appeared relatively recently (can't remember excatly when) and in my experience tends to be quite erratic (massive spikes and troughs sometimes not following the rest of the crowd). You say above that it is the "high res" run - can you explain for a dumb ass like me what that means and why it so often differs massively from the rest of the runs?
Ta from a confused Snowmonkey...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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ajpaul,
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Hmmn - so do I remain optimistic for La Thuile, or should I be walking around with my head in my hands
And should I wear a helmet?
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If your head is in your hands it is too late to wear a helmet.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Thanks Greg, I had read that thread, but in fact hadn't read the latest posts on it. It was actually you that answered my question!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Snowmonkey wrote: |
| Thanks Greg, I had read that thread, but in fact hadn't read the latest posts on it. It was actually you that answered my question! |
I was probably cut n pasting an answer from someone else into the thread!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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so can any of the weather jockeys on here tell me if its going to snow in mayrhoifen next week?
if you could arrange it i would appreciate a massive dump on saturday night followed by another nice dump around tuesday night (but early enough for the piste bashers to groom it) 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nick0861 wrote: |
so can any of the weather jockeys on here tell me if its going to snow in mayrhoifen next week?
if you could arrange it i would appreciate a massive dump on saturday night followed by another nice dump around tuesday night (but early enough for the piste bashers to groom it) |
You *may* see some snow from the precipitation around the weekend, but DEFINITELY only high up. First chance of anything lower down (below 1500m) is Tuesday/Weds as things stand at present.
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Go on then, might as well ask......
What chance Sauze D'Oulx this week/next???? 
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None, there is high precipitation forecast specifically around Sauxe at the end of the week but the current modules showing pressure and temperature data show that anything below 2500m will be rain i'm afraid.
I just made that up.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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tres tres evil.
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FAQ
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