 Poster: A snowHead
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Good grief... have I taught you all nothing over these months! The mega dump will disappear & re-appear several times from now. It's still over a week away and you have to bear in mind that a) precipitation amount is THE hardest thing to get accurate even hours before the event, let alone over a week and b) the GFS is a series of... wigglies... that are representations of computer simulations of about 20 possible scenarios for the weather system. Obviously the closer the prediction, the less chance there is for the variables to make much effect, hence the lines... wigglies... all stay close together. When the prediction is for further away, the variables input have much longer to take effect and the wigglies get spread apart. What you then look for is a consensus. So if all 20 wigglies are not closely bunched AND YET they still all head below the 30-year average, then you know that no matter what variables come up, there is a very high probability of cooler temperatures.
With rain/snowfall, the tiniest fluctuations can have an effect up until the last minute, so it's utterly impossible to predict the amount to fall with ANY level of accuracy, it's purely based on averages and relative temperatures and humidities of clashing weather systems so it's all very, very random...
Still very good set up for cold and snow, temps continue to head downwards into March. This is good news.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There are still lots of bumps on that forecast though. Naked snowdancing not yet required,.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
Good grief... have I taught you all nothing over these months
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precipitation amount is THE hardest thing to get accurate even hours before the event, let alone over a week
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Careful people. If we all get hysterical about forecasts of megadumps, or disappearance of megadumps, a week ahead of time, carled might get so brassed off with repeating himself that he takes his ball home. 
An empirical observation: snow-forecast (which I believe is GFS-based) has significantly under-forecasts snow depths in every snowfall of the season, so far, in our neck of the mountains (which is in what the French call the "préalpes")
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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yep the mega dump has gone
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norris please tell me that your just a bitter man who is not sking early march and that your hidous quote is mearly a wind up 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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shorty,
fraid not old boy - I am off to Tignes tomorrow for 10 days. I am hoping carled is correct "The mega dump will disappear & re-appear several times from now"......
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The 6z run is out. The ensembles (wigglies) aren't yet, but the charts are. It's unbelievable. All the rain/snow has gone and there's a huge shift in the warm air mass I was talking about, it's all now shoved massively eastwards to sit over most of the alpine region. It's dry air too, so it's basically gonna be a hairdryer effect... 
The weather gods are cruel...
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carled, oh sh..........................
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Naked snowdancing now necessary.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Helen Beaumont, video, please. 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, Mega Downer...
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carled, does this mean I should cancel my flight? 
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You know it makes sense.
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BTW keep mean to ask, how do you see the charts as posted a few replies back for Europe per day, ie non wigglies? I note the one posted is for Sunday 2nd March, how, for example, do I see the one for 29th Feb?
Cheers,
greg
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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bah you had to tell 'em, I thought the fishing smiley would have been enough 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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evil very evil
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I know, I got guilty at the thought of snowhead suicides...
Go to www.wetterzentrale.de, click "GFS" top left corner, then in panel top middle, click on "850hPa Temperatur" for temperature panels and "niederschlag" for precipitations. Use +6/-6 pr +12/-12 buttons or just click on the numbered boxes underneath the options panels at the top to go to a particular day. If you're feeling brave, go for the "animator panel" and choose, say, 850hpa and niederschlag, then let it load up and run your mouse up and down the times on the left to see an "animation" of the progression. Can help to show the corellation between warm/cold fronts and rain/snowfall.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Slightly off topic, but has anyone noticed how snow-forecast now gives you the six-day forecast for free, but you have to pay for the nine day forecast? Amused me that they will give out the faintly accurate data for nothing but if you want the really unreliable stuff you have to pay.
Or of course favourite this thread and get it all for free, with the addition of carled's purple prose
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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- still lots of activity for next saturday
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 22-02-08 13:06; edited 1 time in total
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carled, You are a bad man... I was halfway to Bridgend... 
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carled, hehehe, another winner. I just LOVE this thread.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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carled, where in the alps is the above table for, or is all generic? and what height?
just wondering if that precip. is going to fall as rain, slush or snow
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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and what have you done with Brian?
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You know it makes sense.
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46/8 (wiggly chart location from a few posts back) is approx Zermatt. 850hps relates, approximately, to 1500 metres in height terms.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I think this thread has gotten far to frivolous for a serious weather man such as Brian. He'll be delving into his fax charts and comforting himself with a nice hot cup of Horlicks...
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Poster: A snowHead
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ha ha... frivolous... i hadn't noticed! when did that happen? was it the melting snowmen charts or the lycra clad beautilicious babe
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Oi. That's not some random "beautilicious babe", that's Chemmy! Poor thing can't smile anymore since I told her it was all over. She'll recover, given time. Kylie was the same at first.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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the 26th and 28th Feb wigglies seem to be worth keeping an eye on as well as the one's into March
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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kitenski, yep i reckon those could put down a nice "refresher" higher up
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I've decided i hate this thread. I've thought long and hard about it and i've realised it's driving me potty...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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carled, do you have the reverse camera angle for that photo?
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| shoogly wrote: |
| I've decided i hate this thread. I've thought long and hard about it and i've realised it's driving me potty... |
This should be registered as an addiction............
However hard I try not to get too hung up, the first sign of a change for the worse sends me into despair. 3 of the forecasts that I use are now showing hardly any snow between the 29th and the 2nd here in the Pyrenees.
I feel a night of excess wine coming on..................... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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have you seen snowforecast for Wengen this morning. The Megadump is starting to show up. I'm reaching for the tissues 
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Looking hopeful for a breakdown around the end of the month of all this stable weather we've seen over the Alps. I fly out on the 29th, so I'm rather pleased. All this, and pictures of Chemmy - what more could a boy want...?
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FAQ
