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French alpine property price crisis?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
In the mountains, the beginning of the real estate market crisis

http://abonnes.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2013/03/04/a-la-montagne-debut-de-crise-pour-le-marche-immobilier_1842173_3234.html
Prix au m2 des appartements dans 8 stations.
Quote:

the two notaries Savoie, who noted a price maintenance in Haute-Savoie in the former and even a 1.3% increase in new apartments in 2012 and a slight decrease in Savoie (- 0 9% in the former group - 2.8% in the former individual).

Not really a crisis is it?
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no sympathy here...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
What interests me most is 1) why/if the British have quit Chamonix, and 2) why Val d'Isere prices shot up so much - have the Russians arrived?
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Quote:

Not really a crisis is it?

no, I'd say not. That google translation is pretty meaningless. Laughing The message seems to be that location, location, location, is, as always, the key. If you have the right kind of thing, in the right place, it's still a decent investment. My French apartment has certainly appreciated a great deal more in the last ten years than a similar purchase in the UK would have done. My son bought a flat in Brighton at about the same time we bought the apartment - it was sold last year having done a lot less well than our French place. As we had informally owned half of it, we noticed!! As we had friends who bought an apartment identical to ours at about the same the Brighton one was sold, I can say that with some confidence.
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albinomountainbadger, The Chamonix point is interesting
Quote:
Chamonix where activity had been shaken by the British withdrawal in recent years has stabilized.

Whats all that about then?
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boredsurfin, we generated more revenue from Brits in Chamonix in 2006 with 2 apartments than we ever have since with 3.

The Brits really took the euro strength to heart as far as we can see.

Not helped by two major developers inc MGM flogging off unsold capital as rentals last two seasons at seriously under market prices.
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boredsurfin wrote:
French alpine property price crisis?


boredsurfin wrote:
Not really a crisis is it?


Summarised it for you.
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Comedy Goldsmith, yep Very Happy
Wouldn't want to be an owner in La Plagne or Les Gets Shocked
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Always thought Les Gets was overrated..
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Compared to British property crisis where values have dropped by over 40% in some areas, I'd say it's something of a non-story.
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Headline property prices will lag well behind a drop in sales, as it can take years before vendors drop prices. The major question is: are units being sold?
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boredsurfin, our neighbour works in hotellierie in Les Gets and says the atmosphere of the resort is changing due to so many hotels and PV style residences getting turned into apartments. Not too far of a stretch to imagine that the release of large batches of new properties onto the market is pushing prices down.
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albinomountainbadger, but what's the story, are apts selling or lying vacant? If selling, to who? And who is financing? French buying and french banks financing? They must be in a charmed position so, obviously the gun-to-head extortionate and unfair deal France and Germany concocted to ensure Irish govt was on hook for all losses French and German banks made in ireland (and greece, spain etc for that manner) is keeping things good there. Its a long way for a Russian to buy a property except for uber - rich. Of course, if banks not giving out easy finance and units not moving, a proper crash could be on the way
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
No idea, I'd say a mix of all three. My neighbour works in the hotels that stay hotels/before they get sold so isn't in on the sale side of it after redevlopment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's French people buying them. French culture is very different with regard to holidays, debt/lending and second homes. The proportion of French people with a holiday home is incredible, much higher than the UK, but on the other hand people tend to save a hefty amount before buying. Even for small purchases, credit cards are still in their infancy here. Also the vast majority of French people see no reason to leave France for a ski holiday [recent report in the papers on this] so their money stays here instead of flooding over the borders. No comparison to the massively indebted interest-only and buy-to-let mess in the UK.
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There's an apartment in my block about to be sold for an awful lot more than it was bought for in 2005. A Russian was interested but couldn't get out for a viewing in time, so I think it will be sold to a French family. Currently they are the only other British owners in the residence.
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Quote:

No idea, I'd say a mix of all three. My neighbour works in the hotels that stay hotels/before they get sold so isn't in on the sale side of it after redevlopment, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's French people buying them. French culture is very different with regard to holidays, debt/lending and second homes. The proportion of French people with a holiday home is incredible, much higher than the UK, but on the other hand people tend to save a hefty amount before buying. Even for small purchases, credit cards are still in their infancy here. Also the vast majority of French people see no reason to leave France for a ski holiday [recent report in the papers on this] so their money stays here instead of flooding over the borders. No comparison to the massively indebted interest-only and buy-to-let mess in the UK.


This is so true, a bit off topic, but to demonstrate...

In my business I did consumer shows in the UK (NEC) and France (Paris).

In the same size stand in both places, in 4 days, I'd do 15,000 pounds at the NEC and 28,000 EUR in Paris. 50% of the transactions were credit cards in Paris. At the NEC, customers, mostly 40+ would be going through the 'pound buckets', picking it up and wondering if they should spend that pound...for the love! Couldn't keep those buckets full in Paris.

I'm not familiar with individual debt situation of French consumers, but they certainly don't have an issue with whipping out the plastic and spending money...

Needless to say, after a couple of meager UK shows, I just stopped attending. My personal observation is of the French, if they can finance it, they buy it. Great impulse purchasers, those French.
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queen bodecia wrote:
Compared to British property crisis where values have dropped by over 40% in some areas, I'd say it's something of a non-story.


Only in the areas no one wants to live.


Ignoring London , there are loads of places showing growth.
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HeidiAmsterdam, admit we're off topic but the I have to add that credit cards don't really exist in France, but as their better debit cards carry VISA and Mastercard logos and come in gold/black/platinum varieties it's easy to confuse them for credit cards as known in the UK. The most common form of 'credit card' is actually a deferred debit card where all your transactions just get debited at the end of the month, or the second is a card that lets you choose to pay immediately at the counter or in three instalments. The thousands of pounds credit limits, massive APRs and monthly minimum payments don't seem to exist in France.


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 11-03-13 22:33; edited 1 time in total
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HeidiAmsterdam, i wouldn't liketo over generalise, but our French and Swiss Visa/mastercards are not credit cards but charge cards. You can't maintain debt on them. I don't know about banks other than CA, SocGen and UBS, but I believe that this is more or less the same for every issuer.

So, no, no credit debt at work there I don't think.
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I am currently working on on a project in north Kensington , town houses for 4.5 mill,

It's actually ladshit grove near the kebab shop, but people
Are insane, and think being only 10 minutes in an armoured car from actually cool places is good.
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albinomountainbadger wrote:
boredsurfin, our neighbour works in hotellierie in Les Gets and says the atmosphere of the resort is changing due to so many hotels and PV style residences getting turned into apartments. Not too far of a stretch to imagine that the release of large batches of new properties onto the market is pushing prices down.


Les Gets had a 3-year moratorium on planning permission up until three years ago (waiting for new water supplies and sewage treatment capacity to be completed). The backlog is hitting the market now.
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Prices in Samoens look okay and property seems to be selling (asking price v actual price??). What is clear is that MGM seem to like it a lot. The area behind the ice rink has now been cleared for their next development (last one near Neige et Rock looks nearly finished) and they have official approval boards up at the old Drugeres site.

Dumping them for rental could become an issue but the huge increase in accomodation coupled with zero increase in bars and restaurants etc will have big medium term implications
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Having sold an apartment last year I can say with conifdence that you will get 20-30% less now than you would have expected five years ago. Advertised prices remain high as there is no race to the bottom, since property can be let out hence no crisis and larger properties will perhaps keep their value, but I think demand at the lower end is relatively weak.
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beequin, That is the gist of the article and I think the percieved 'crisis' is despite prices remaining high because of the reasons you put forward actual sales are recording the variations in the table in the OP.
Very Happy
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boredsurfin, I agree, except that I think the 'crisis' started some time ago so a year's figures now may be misleading.
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beequin wrote:
...property can be let out...

It can... but my experience is that the market in Valmorel is a flat as a pancake; this is a very French dominated resort with some Belgians and Dutch thrown in. Last year my appt, a short drive away was a shoe in for seasonaires who don't mindgiving up ski/out for somewhere bigger and cheaper. This year the agent was not confident of any business at all as the in resort punters appts were struggling to get any interest and so some owners were happy to go for safe season income. I was pretty pleased to get 5 weeks occupancy in Feb/Mar at a rate which will just about cover the heating and lighting. The anecdotal evidence from the locals is that there is a distinct lack of confidence around with the French punters who are holding out for rock bottom prices.
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mcspreader, Agreed, overall a good time to buy and a time to work hard for lets and stick it out as an owner, if you can.
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Hells Bells wrote:
There's an apartment in my block about to be sold for an awful lot more than it was bought for in 2005. A Russian was interested but couldn't get out for a viewing in time, so I think it will be sold to a French family. Currently they are the only other British owners in the residence.


Have you written something wrong there Puzzled (French / British)

It is coming up to 10 years since we bought our place, a standard 25m2 shoebox in a block of 120. We were only the 2nd or 3rd British owners in the block, but in the 5 or 6 years that followed probably about another 4 or 5 British have moved in, even up to the time when the market price was about 2.5 times what it was in 2003. Most of these, as ours was, were sales from French people who had bought when the blocks were built in the 1980's.

I think I agree with the theory that the French do not carry the amount of personal, (I think probably the french government is a different story), debt that we do and although advertised prices have dropped back I have seen very few apartments actually change hands because the, generally longstanding, non-mortgaged owners can afford to not to sell because February's rental income will pretty well pay all the maintenance charges and the 2 taxes.

I believe French banks etc. have always had to comply with the rule / law(?) that they must satisfy themselves that someone they lend to will be able to keep up the payments from their available income. I had a friend who fell foul of that rule when he arranged a mortgage with a french bank when in the UK, in the same circumstances, I know he would not have had any problem whatsoever.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
skitow, Yep, I looked at a small French mortgage 8 years or so ago. You had to pove that one third of your income after the proposed mortgage and tax was disposable, I guess nothings changed.
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boredsurfin, Yes, my friend fell at the fence because he lived with his father who owned 2 houses and he lived rent free in one of his fathers houses, his father made it clear that one house would eventually belong to my friend and one to his sister.
He loved skiing and wanted to buy a small bolt-hole in the alps. He got refused several times because the French banks always deducted a, fairly large, nominal amount from his available income to cover his housing costs, making his mortgage unaffordanble under "the rules". Eventually he did get one though, from one of the large french banks but I cannot remember which.
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skitow, sorry, the current owners are the only other Brits apart from us.
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Whilst I'm in no doubt that the euro recession has had an effect on prices, the above figures might be a little skewed due to the changes in French capital gains tax. In summary, those holding a property for less than 30 years and wishing to sell were incentivised to do so before feb 1st 2012. This encouraged an increased supply onto the market, which would have been reflected in the prices.
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boredsurfin wrote:
beequin, That is the gist of the article and I think the percieved 'crisis' is despite prices remaining high because of the reasons you put forward actual sales are recording the variations in the table in the OP.
Very Happy


Notaire's figures are very unreliable but apart from the FNAIM there is no other source of house price data in France. There was talk about compiling a national register but nothing ever came of it. It is not in the government's interest to have too much information in the hands of the plebs. So you are left with these little snippets of data with very little background. They could be based on just a couple of transactions in some resorts. Certainly in areas of the Savoie 50% of buyers were British up to 2009. An estate agent I know says that when the pound drops below 1.20 the trans-manche phone lines go silent.

I doubt the French have much appetite for buying first, let alone second homes at the moment and certainly not in the expensive mountains. The number of 2nd homes is an historic artefact from when properties, even in ski resorts, were cheap, there were big tax breaks for buying and many are also homes that have been left in the countryside by parents and are probably shared by an extended family.
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All things considered, this is a disgraceful piece of journalism (or rehashed press release?) which raises some interesting points and does absolutely nothing to follow up on them.
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Of course a lot of QE money may be finding its way into places like Courchevel and Val d'Isere
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davidof,
I had another, french, friend whose parents had a second home in the alps and a third home in Normandy. Their apartment in Paris was, as I understood it, supplied by / paid for by her fathers employer, EDF. This was about 15 years ago and when I explained to her about the privatisation of the power industry in the UK she said "that will never happen in France".
Is there not some saying about never say never ?
I would say that over half the apartments in our block are still owned by the original buyers in the 80's, which on a family level I think it is a great thing to see grandparents bringing grandchildren on a ski holiday.
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The other thing that might also skew the prices is that the French contracts specify an element for the house and they can also have a second element for furniture and fittings.

These can sometimes be surprisingly high in what seems an attempt to reduce the CGT implications.
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emwmarine wrote:
The other thing that might also skew the prices is that the French contracts specify an element for the house and they can also have a second element for furniture and fittings.

These can sometimes be surprisingly high in what seems an attempt to reduce the CGT implications.


More to reduce Notaires fees and stamp duties. I don't think it can be more than 10% of the purchase price though. The French tax services can also tax you on what they think the price of your property should have been rather than what you claim to have sold it for. This would be based on sales of similar properties.

The CGT holiday offered by the government wasn't that significant, which is probably why there has been no stampede to the doors by second home owners.
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