 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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^ yip - that is a great article from Bruce Tremper (originally published in march). essential reading.
several tragic incidents in Europe this winter certainly proved that air bags don't make you immortal.
clearly the 97% survival rate quoted by ABS for those that the pulled the trigger was always suspect and arguably immoral. primarily because roughly 9 / 10 people in any avalanche remain on top without an airbag anyway.
Bruce Tremper reckons airbag improves your chances to perhaps about 50% ? That is a little higher than the 30% of buried victims who are located alive with transceiver.... Though clearly avoidance is the best solution.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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That's really interesting. Thanks for posting.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Haggis_Trap, Avoidance and knowledge are the best tools for anyone.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I think the Ski industry wants to create a story where with the right gear and precautions you can make the whole off piste and adventuring thing safe.
IMHO you can't. There is an inherent danger and force that beacons, airbags and spades and precautions can only mitigate to a small degree.
I remember seeing a video on here, of what looked to be a quite well organised and experienced group, where one of the group got half buried in an avalanche. Despite his spade (allowing for dicking around without gloves on) and the fact that the person was only partially buried, located immediately, he had a hell of a job digging him out.
It made you think that if he had been buried completely he would have been a goner.
For me the risks aren't worth it. I'll stick to the pistes.
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| emwmarine wrote: |
I think the Ski industry wants to create a story where with the right gear and precautions you can make the whole off piste and adventuring thing safe.
IMHO you can't. There is an inherent danger and force that beacons, airbags and spades and precautions can only mitigate to a small degree. |
actually, you can mitigate it to a very high degree, but you cannot eliminate it
one of the classic risk reduction techniques for skiing off piste seeks to reduce the risk to something similar to going for a walk in the mountains in summertime. i'm pretty comfortable with that level of risk, but not everyone is
that article with Drew Tabke is a bit strange - not sure I'd rely on it to make a point in any direction!
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| Quote: |
that article with Drew Tabke is a bit strange
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I got the impression they were both slightly stoned. I kind of agree with what I think he was trying to say.
The critical point is that there is risk mitigation, which is an ongoing process. And there is crisis management equipment and you mustn't let your crisis management gear affect your risk mitigation. That's easier said than done.
That said, I think there are bigger heuristic traps than the ones pertaining to gear. While the plural of anecdote is not evidence, I suspect other factors have been present in most of the poodle incidents I have first or second hand knowledge of. I would suggest inaccurate perception of expertise/judgement and over-familiarity with hazardous terrain are bigger issues.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I think Arno has some direct experience with Tabke, but I get his point - which seems to be that people need to be less ambitious about getting after what's out there. However quite ironic given it comes from someone whose career is based on selling the big mountain dream.
Rather than talking about absolutes it seems to me that the better analogy is reducing risk to the level of say a long road bike ride or motorcycling in bad weather.
Is the hierarchy of off-piste radness now?
1 I'm clueless so will go off piste without knowing about risk or equipment and do some JONG moves
2 I'm sufficiently knowledgeable to hire a guide
3 I'm actively interested in edumacation and have bought my own gear to show how serious I am
4 I'm so edumacated I realise the weakest bit of my kit is the bit between the ears
5 In order to be zen about it I reject all safety kit to avoid temptation of making an suboptimal decision
6 Of course if my bros egg me on I'll throw in a bit of 1 into any situation because I'm a pack animal at heart
It's very difficult to talk about conceptually without having different people at different points on the scale face the same terrain and measure reactions from "Hell yeah this is good to go" to "No chance walk away".
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| fatbob wrote: |
| It's very difficult to talk about conceptually without having different people at different points on the scale face the same terrain and measure reactions from "Hell yeah this is good to go" to "No chance walk away". |
And then the "Hell yeah this is good to go" (Avalanche poodle) group will rip the pow and likely as not get away with it 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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AndAnotherThing.., also known as the "I've done 200+ days in the backcountry" qualification by experience. See it's very difficult to write about without coming across as a douche one way or another.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Lets rewrite that statistical argument, see if it reads a little different...
81% of people survive avalanches without a bag, so lets say that only 19% of avalanches are "fatal avalanches"
97% of people who opened an airbag survived, quick maths, 3 % died.... a moment for our fallen mountain friends..... and on we go
16% out of 19% (the number of fatal avalanches) says that an airbag makes you 84% more likely to survive an avalanche that would otherwise have killed you!
Bought one, never used it, still happy I have it...
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| Haggis_Trap wrote: |
| Bruce Tremper reckons airbag improves your chances to perhaps about 50% ? That is a little higher than the 30% of buried victims who are located alive with transceiver.... Though clearly avoidance is the best solution. |
he says 50% of those who would otherwise have died, so I don't think it's using the stats correctly to compare 50% vs 30%. But that's a bit of a pedantic argument - the airbag alone is pretty clearly not responsible for 97% of people deploying them staying alive
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You know it makes sense.
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^ exactly.... I can think of 4 or 5 well publicized incidents from this European winter alone (in cham and verbier) where the victim apparently pulled the airbag trigger and sadly did not survive. It is only now that airbags are widely used in the field that we are getting a proper feel for their effectiveness in different situations.
The simple point Drew Tabke makes is that good decision making is always more important than technology. If you get hit by a big avalanche or end up in a terrain trap then nothing is going to save you.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Haggis_Trap, but he also seems to peddling some risk compensation line along that used by the anti-helmet fraternity. Not a criticism and its a valid point in an environment where having kit and knowing how to use it is the price of admission to be taken seriously by your peers. I used to think the old boy locals you find in every Euro resort who'd tell you they skied off piste unequipped and alone were some sort of throwback but they sort of have a point when they've been watching snow accumulation all season and have no need to get out and compete with the Scandi posse for the biggest lines on the biggest days.
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Poster: A snowHead
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^ Which of the following 2 scenarios at either of end of the scale is safer ?
1) Gentle ski tour, 25-30 degree terrain, spring snow. Skiing alone with no beacon or airbag.
OR
2) Opening a 40 degree couloir on a big powder day. Everyone in group equipped with beacon, ABS and avalung.
Clearly the 2nd option is much more dangerous 
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| compete with the Scandi posse for the biggest lines on the biggest days. |
^ The classic avalanche problem....
You ski a suspect slope that could be unstable in order to get some fresh tracks.
99% of the time you get away with it, have a great run, and believe wrongly that you made a good decision.
This builds up false confidence that you are making good decisions and being safe on the mountain.
However if you do this 10 times over 10 seasons then eventually you get your ass handed to you..... (as I know!)
Of course airbags & beacons are good things to carry - but we should be aware of their limitations.
The decision making is always the most important factor.
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FAQ
