Seems something v unstable going on out there. Grand Vallon isn't even that steep
Can you trust avi risk? What really does 3 mean? You see avi risk 3 when things don't seem so bad and weeks seem to go by without a slide, but then 3 could mean 3-and-a-half like right now where everything is clearly unstable but the powers that be are keen to downgrade from 4. It seems there can be a very wide variability in risk 3
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
patricksh, avalanches can happen no matter what the rating is. Personally, I think that anyone who goes off piste at the moment is running a very high risk due to the temperature fluctuations, heavy snow, wind and rain over the last 3 weeks. It's a risk people do take, and unfortunately they pay the consequences. If the reports are true, this guy took all the necessary predations, transceiver, shovel, guide etc, but accidents do happen.
Risk Level 3 - "On many steep slopes the snowpack is only moderately or weakly stable. Avalanches may be triggered on many slopes even if only light loads (eg 1 skier) are applied. On some slopes medium or even fairly large spontaneous avalanches may occur." - European Avalanche Risk Scale
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Risk Level 3 is a high avalanche risk (as offpisteskiing shows), despite there being two even higher risk levels. And I think the most avalanches with casualties happen at this level, possibly because some people underestimate the danger.
Modern thinking is that skiers should move away from the idea of defined levels and read the actual details of each bulletin. Its not so simple that level 2/3 is safe and 4 or 5 is dangerous.
Avalance risk is clearly highly dependent on aspect, altitude and also other factors such as wind / time of day etc. The SAIS 'rose' on the Scottish forecasts captures this information well - but you really need to read the details beyond just a headline number. Though, as mentioned above level 3 = considerable risk.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Haggis_Trap, +1
After all it is free
After all it is free
I would love to uplift a photo of a snow slip at the bottom of the Kitzbuhel streif earlier this week but cannot find any instructions as to how to do it - suffice it to say probably only 100metres higher vertical than finish area - looked like ice on a warmer surface just slipped away.
No doubt somewhere in the snowhead instruction book (not under FAQ) is information as to how to upload a photo for a class 1 technophobe.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
countryman, host it ont he internet somewhere (Snowheads media zone/facebook/flickr/etc), then right click (or mac equivalent), copy image address, and paste here between the tags [img] [/img], but without any spaces.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
espri wrote:
Risk Level 3 is a high avalanche risk (as offpisteskiing shows), despite there being two even higher risk levels. And I think the most avalanches with casualties happen at this level, possibly because some people underestimate the danger.
This is clearly true a lot. When you think about it:
Level 5: lifts closed, access roads may be closed, pedestrians may be banned from certain areas
Level 4: still many lifts and runs maybe closed. Maybe you need your head examined to go off-piste but that's a personal thing
Level 3: now at least pistes are safe. Not every off-piste slope is waiting to avalanche so it can be done. But of course we could be just a hairs breadth below level 4 and the decision to downgrade to 3 made by a fallible human
Thing is:
Level 2: avalanches getting quite unlikely. But of course resort won't want to use it if any way dicey. So therefore level 3 could conceivably range from just a hairs breadth above avalanches possible on risky slopes, to hairs breadth below madness
So as others have pointed out, one has to be very careful with avi risk 3, and it seems like risk described by risk 3 last couple of weeks seem to be different kettle of fish to risk 3 other years?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
As we are talking about France risk 5 is essentially aimed at civil security organisations (highways, mayors office) and doesn't concern skiers other than saying stay at home. So for assessing the avalanche risk for winter sports route planning there are effectively 4 risk levels. Looking at things like that then Risk 3 and 4 are in the upper half of the risk matrix and therefore should be considered very dangerous requiring very careful route planning. At risk 4 you can expect big avalanches that will kill you, perhaps even if you have an airbag. At risk 3 you can expect medium avalanches that will kill you. You have more chance of surviving with an airbag and if completely buried maybe an evens chance of your mates finding you alive if you are wearing a beacon.
The avalanche risk assessment is decided by Meteo France based on observations of the snowpack during the day, where avalanches have occurred, on which slope aspects, angles etc. This information largely comes from piste patrols in ski resorts and some observations by the highways departments, EDF workers maintaining dams and even ski websites. This is combined with a weather model predicting how temperatures, wind etc will evolve over the next 24 hours. It is issued at 16h00 each day during the ski season and covers a mountain range (an area of 100sq km on average). Resorts sometimes issue their own bulletins in variance with the MF bulletin but these have no legal basis. There is a very precise method for evaluating the overall risk.
The major unknown is how the weather will evolve (remember Munter's 3x3: where you combine the avalanche bulletin with your observations on the ground. Bulletin says 20cm of fresh snow but you observe 40cm that should ring alarm bells about your route choice).
Things work slightly differently in Switzerland for various reasons and probably other European countries. The Swiss bulletin sometimes talks about a 3+ risk. North America also has slightly different interpretations on the 5 level scale.
The incident in Val d'Isere is entirely consistent with a risk 3. At the location in question the risk was actually 4 evolving to 3 during the day which should be a red flag in itself.
// edited for grammar
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Sat 22-12-12 11:19; edited 4 times in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
The major unknown is how the weather will evolved (remember Munter's 3x3: where you combine the avalanche bulletin with your observations on the ground. Bulletin says 20cm of fresh snow but you observe 40cm that should ring alarm bells about your route choice).
The incident in Val d'Isere is entirely consistent with a risk 3. At the location in question the risk was actually 4 evolving to 3 during the day which should be a red flag in itself.
...and over the last few days there have been strong winds in Val D'I in directions entirely consistent with loading the Grands Vallons, yesterday around the Solaise & Fornet areas there were also obvious signs of wind effects on the new snow that had fallen overnight, particularly above ~ 2100m
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
davidof, enlightening post, thanks.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
to follow up what Simon said, this photo is from the flanks of Mont Brequin yesterday. You can see the new snow has been sculpted around the rocks and also wind erosion on the surface of the snow with a wind from the right (N) to left (SE) in this case, probably as the wind funnelled over the col de la Vallée Étroite then across the mountain. This led to a lot of cross loading:- sections of deep, slabby snow with shoulders almost bereft of fresh snow.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sat 22-12-12 11:03; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
just goes to show that a little knowledge about avalanches is a dangerous thing..... thanks, davidof.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I wonder if there has been any research done by the authorities on how skiers/boarders respond (if at all) to the warnings and briefings, and how the specific levels and also the changes in levels influence people's views and actual behaviour?
As one or two previous posters have noted, the 1-5 scale can be pretty crude and not nearly describe conditions in particular areas or slopes. Perhaps a level 3 is treated by some people as a lower level risk (despite the considerable risk warning) and a licence to go grab powder without much further thought on their part?
Heresy maybe, counter risk culture and prob impractical for the authorities re insurance etc, but I wonder what would happen if warnings, at least on a numerical scale, were not issued. Would the uncertainty created tend to encourage more people to think about the conditions more and about where it is and isn't most likely safe to go?
I think perhaps many people do not know where to find out the risk level and do not know the flag meanings even if they notice them (which is cruder than risk bulletins, in any case, and I get the impression is just left perpetually at a high level in some places to absolve them of possible blame).
It seems to me that resorts could post the information more obviously and publicise where to look more widely.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Dad's friends was one of the first to the scene. As mentioned in the article the group was being guided, doesn't always mean risk free.
Witnessed a pretty sizable one in Tignes the same day, the guy was pretty happy that it was just his ski that he lost!
As mentioned in the article the group was being guided
Probably not a mountain guide, though: the report just says "a professional from the resort".
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
snowball, I was told it was with a guide but I may be wrong.
After all it is free
After all it is free
It's a shame that the full avi report isn't available in multiple languages plus in a easier to understand graphical format. The French approach on this could be improved.
The Catalan approach would seem to be a good model:
I'd also like to see (and be able to interpret !) the raw snow charts produced from field data. In Chamonix they are posted up in some lift stations.
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Spikyhedgehog wrote:
snowball, I was told it was with a guide but I may be wrong.
As Wayne's Daily Diary (Alpine Experience) from the day says "Unfortunately there was a major avalanche in the Grand Vallon, involving a good friend and mentor, and someone I have incredible respect for, who tragically lost a good friend in the avalanche.", I think it probably was a guided party.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
p.s. which shouldn't come as a surprise, as in one large survey, 30% of people completely buried in an avalanche were acompanied by a guide. Here's the relevant reference:
Brugger H, Etter HJ, Zweifel B, et al. The impact of avalanche rescue devices on survival. Resuscitation 2007;75:476-83
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Wow, this might even have happened whilst I was in Val D'isere. We engaged in some tentative off-piste but stayed close to the slopes and were sensible about it. Very, very hard with some of the gorgeous looking off-piste being so close and tempting, but we stayed sensible and came away clean with no injuries or avalanches If I was going on the 'proper' off-piste I'd want a knowledgeable guide and Avi gear. Pretty crazy conditions over that way ATM with the amount of snow recently, it only stopped snowing for a day whilst we were there.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
patricksh wrote:
Seems something v unstable going on out there. Grand Vallon isn't even that steep
Grand Vallon is exactly the kind of pitch on which avalanches can occur i.e. something like the steepness of a typical red or black piste. One of the mistakes that people can make is to think that a slope such as that will not avalanche.
I was in Tignes at the time. The skier was being lead by a guide from a very well respected Val d'Isere company.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I will add that the conditions that day were absolutely superb and it came as a shock when we heard about the tragedy the following morning.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:
It's a shame that the full avi report isn't available in multiple languages plus in a easier to understand graphical format.
It is (well, not the languages bit, although I may start doing an English version again now that the Christmas madness has calmed down a bit). See here for example:
Quite similar format to the Scottish example posted above.
A line I've been using in training recently - "Would you tell your Mum you were heading out when the avalanche risk was 'considerable' ?"
That's not to say you shouldn't go off-piste at level 3. In fact, I'll happily ride off-piste all day at level 4. It's a question of choosing the appropriate terrain.
Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Mon 31-12-12 0:28; edited 1 time in total
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
stevomcd wrote:
It's a question of choosing the appropriate terrain.
..and of not being complacent, or too cocky
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
red 27, what's your point caller?
I hate all the waffle on here about people going out at level 4 being "idiots" or whatever. Judgement is always required, but a safe day is always possible. Sometimes, sadly, anyone can get it wrong.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Talking about judgement... I made a stupid error in a split second last year and had a lucky escape. The others went down through the trees, I saw a steep line and did not clock the following:
1) Change in steepness.
2) Less trees to act as anchor points.
3) Change in slope to sun orientation.
Is it recommended practice to turn off the avi bag trigger in trees and if so, why is that?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
You don't want the avi bag deploying by accident if the trigger gets caught on a tree!!!
Personally, if I had an ABS, I'd accept the risk of accidental deployment and have the trigger ready to deploy the bag.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Scarpa,
After you checked your trousers for adrenaline, how did you work your way out of there? Judging by what went from under your skis it all looks nasty!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Here is a recent video from Tignes of us taking on the Sashe down to Breviere, Starting at the Eye of the Needle. It was a run I had never done before and was one of my goals this time. As you can see, it had not been pisted yet (does it ever get pisted?), but there were no signs at the start saying that it was closed. There were lots of other people going down the run, so we thought it worth a go.
Before going out to Tignes I had read about the first avi of the season that had claimed a life and had made the decision to not stray from the pistes. However encouraged by the others heading down, and the desire to achieve a goal, we set off. Myself and my ski buddie are confident intermediates who can take on pretty much anything as long as it is pisted, but we are not very experienced off piste.
Looking back now, it was not a great decision to go for it as we struggled in the powder a bit, we did not know the run in its pisted state, we had no off piste kit with us. Sounds so stupid when you hear that. Anyway we made it down, but there was one scary avi moment just after 2 mins in, when two boarders cut above my buddy and set off an avi that went straight past my his legs. Luckily it was not a big slide and he managed to hold.his stance.
I remember getting back on the piste at the end and thinking... how stupid have we just been.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
If I was going on the 'proper' off-piste I'd want a knowledgeable guide and Avi gear. Pretty crazy conditions over that way ATM with the amount of snow recently, it only stopped snowing for a day whilst we were there.