 Poster: A snowHead
|
Following a recent comprehensive national survey of every ski TO (with an office in Wigan) and after extensive computation of the results (ie, clicking the “chart” button in Excel), it has been shown that people have waited for longer until booking their holiday for the 2012 season.
Contrary to popular belief, the most popular time to book a ski holiday has, over the past 10 year period, been between March and June. This year the adjusted figures show that even though the volume of booking is roughly the same as in previous years (for which we are eternally grateful  ), most people left it around 3 months later to book their ski trip.
The reasons for the later booking could be:
Worries about the economy
People spending months considering DIY trips then finding out it’s actually more expensive than booking with a TO
Concerns over their personal circumstances – workwise
The worldwide shortage of gaffer tape cancelling many DIY trips
Lots of other reasons
The chart shown displays results, as a percentage of total bookings, adjusted to remove Oct, Nov, Dec and Jan bookings.
Edited 2013 to 2012. ooops 
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 28-09-11 9:44; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Wayne, I hope Bigtipper will be along in a minute to analyse your fundamentals and give us some ratios to consider. You must've been a tad concerned around April time!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
I haven't even thought about 2012 yet! 
PSB this yr is the first time I even *thought* about the next season before 1st September. Interesting plots - not what I would have expected.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
>Worries about the economy
>Concerns over their personal circumstances – workwise
Tick both of those for me. We've just booked for Christmas, which we've done earlier than we did last year - but last year was a last minute decision, this year we've been planning for ages but didn't feel the time was right
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
| Bode Swiller wrote: |
| You must've been a tad concerned around April time! |
Mind you, skiing makes up less than 5% of what we do, so it's not too bad
I can’t give you any personal details but (would you believe it), a lady who brings a group of around 40/50 people every year (for the last 7 seven years) and normally books in March has – after I posted the chart above – just called me on my mobile to try and book again for next year as she called our office and was told it was fully booked in the hotel she always goes to on the dates she wants. I have just made a few calls (as always it’s who you know) and have now offered her another hotel (that’s not on our website) on the dates she wants.
She “always” books in March.
She told me that most of her ski party work in the same company and there had been rumours of layoffs. These rumours have now been found not to be true so she is getting round to sorting out the trip.
[quote="andy"]
ooops, should have said 2012, have edited the post
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
So why did you historically make zero sales in August and September? Sold out capcity by then? I can guess people might be on summer hols in August but September is when they return to work depressed and need prospect of another hol to keep the knife from their wrists?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
fatbob,
It's not zero, but lessthan 5% of total
But, of course, this will skew the results. If we are fully booked then we simply couldn't take booking later in the year so the %'s will always show an eariler booking theme
Would be interested to see if the same trend really is industry-wide this year
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 28-09-11 10:01; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne, That's a pretty dramatic difference. How much is accounted for by the late booking of the '40-50 people every year' lady?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Why remove Oct to Dec? out of interest.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Interestingly, as a small, independent operator, that's completely different from what we see. Other than repeat guests from the previous year who re-book immediately after their trip, we get very few bookings before September.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Is that number of people, or number of bookings, or revenue booked?
It seems to me that someone like me organises a big ski trip, out of necessity I organise it nearly 12 months in advance to get the chalet I want, in the location I want, at the price I want, and then it is booked sometime around the end of Jan for a Dec trip. As a result I tend to also get stonking good prices, because operators like an early booking for a week that is traditionally hard to sell (especially at the last minute if conditions are bad)
If you are looking at revenue here, then I'd expect all the large group bookings to go in between January and June for the next season, and then individuals and small groups, who can wait longer (they don't need an entire chalet or hotel to themselves) fit in around it.
If that's the case, then I'd expect a lot of money to come in early from big groups, and perhaps what you are experiencing is a decline in big group trips, shifting the balance of bookings to later season when smaller groups and individuals book on.
Just a thought, but that's what I'd expect is happening. Or as above, some groups will delay booking for longer due to uncertainty. That I would expect affects the mid-market guys more than anybody, at the bargain basement end it is cheap enough that uncertainty doesn't matter, and at the luxury end of the market they've got enough money that a £1K trip isn't significant for them.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Monium wrote: |
| Is that number of people, or number of bookings, or revenue booked? |
It's just a very basic count of bookings during each month and shown as a % of total booking.
| Monium wrote: |
| at the luxury end of the market they've got enough money that a £1K trip isn't significant for them. |
Yep you may be right there. Our 4* in the center of Madonna di Campiglio sold out with a few weeks of going on sale
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
I've had to disappoint returning guests who waited to September to re-book.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
I wonder how many will not book at all. The number of people I know who used to go has fallen. They all do have kids and many have said that they will not pay high prices in half term and for one reason or another cannot take the kids out of school. The operators still sell their half term places at a heafty mark up but I wonder if they are getting the margin from the other weeks if my experience of people not going is replicated.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
| stevomcd wrote: |
| Interestingly, as a small, independent operator, that's completely different from what we see. |
We send out our main summer brochure in Jan. This is mainly for events like the 3 peaks (and 4 peaks) challenge, multi-activity weekends, etc plus kilimanjaro, inca trail, tibet, everest base camp, etc, etc and we always add a full page advert for the ski trips in this - so this "may" be why the numbers are different.
But
| chrisb wrote: |
| The operators still sell their half term places at a heafty mark up . |
Are you sure. Flights, hotels, etc are all MUCH more costly for the UK half term.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Wayne, I just base my half term assumption when looking at the avilability for those operators we have used in the past. Bit sad looking but I wonder if an offer is somewhere out there, but never seems to materialise. But you are right the prices are much more at half term. Easyjet from NCL to GVA is about £400 return each.
For the kids I would be happy to go Monday to Friday and just have three days on the slopes for them and use Easyjet at £150 each, but you just can't get any accomodation for the mid week in half term
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
It would be interesting to see how oct - dec bookings have been over past few years though.
I organised work trips (usually short break thurs pm to sunday pm) for a few years but numbers dropped so much around 2009 that we cancelled the trip. Cost and uncertainty (10% redundancies at our employer in 2009) killed it. at €1.45/£ it was a good deal. at €1.10 not anymore.
We always used to wait until August/sept (people werent interested in mid summer). Made finding space for 30-odd in a lively and suitable resort "interesting"...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| Wayne wrote: |
| Monium wrote: |
| Is that number of people, or number of bookings, or revenue booked? |
It's just a very basic count of bookings during each month and shown as a % of total booking.
| Monium wrote: |
| at the luxury end of the market they've got enough money that a £1K trip isn't significant for them. |
Yep you may be right there. Our 4* in the center of Madonna di Campiglio sold out with a few weeks of going on sale |
Ah, so a big group booking counts as one, not as 30 people (or 30 x revenue from one booking)?
In which case I can't really explain your numbers, other than to suggest that perhaps there are less groups, and individuals can wait longer and longer to book because there is still availability in August/September.
Then again, that may also be a reflection of how your business is perceived - I know some chalet operators who have booked 50% of their season before April in the previous season. If I want to book with them, I have to ring up way ahead and hope that the week I want isn't popular. For some operators, some resorts, even some particular holidays, I know I can ring up two weeks before we leave and would probably get a room. Plus I might get a bargain, especially if I organise my own travel.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
To add to the "official-ness" of these figures. We usually book Jan/Feb to go away the following Christmas. We didn't book this year's Christmas break until last weekend.
This is down to a few reasons. We usually meet up with another family, and they're keen to get a holiday booked very early. Their circumstances have changed so this year we weren't planning to meet up at the same resort. We're a bit lazy at getting our backsides into gear, so didn't book anything earlier. And we were carrying out some house improvements so didn't want to commit earlier to a holiday just in case.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Traditionally, I have not booked until about October - and often later. The exchange rate is making me feel a bit less enthusiastic for next season - and if I leave it to the last minute perhaps Scotland will have another good season. It'd be nice to keep the £££ being spent in the UK.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hmmm .... interesting.
We on the other hand have seen a shift earlier, which this year was not expected given fairly poor snow last year and a fairly brutal economic outlook. 50% more bookings in August this year than last (although August is a fairly quiet month so it's still not big numbers). Overall just over 20% more people booked to the end of September than last year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I booked in May. That is slightly later than 2010 when I booked in March (for the following year).
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
ctskifam, And you have been press releasing to tell folks too
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ctskifam, all my bookings have been for earlier in the season than usual, I usually gaps in Jan/ early Feb, but have almost nothing until the end of March.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
chrisb, bloomin' too right! After the "challenging" bookings once we got in to last winter I'll bang on about any positives I spot for 2011/12 
Hells Bells, same for a lot of people I think. There is usually a duff week or two in Jan at this stage but the only week of the season that really stands out as weak at the mo is 24th March.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
It's a funny old game, booking ski holidays..
Our group one to St Anton in Feb was only booked on Sept 7th - and it was hard to find something which suited us (near enough to town centre/lifts but not too pricey).
However I've not booked my December holiday yet, and I'll leave it as late as I dare to book for end of March, to see where the best snow is.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ctskifam, that is my experience too, in fact I think it was empty last season too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
I found that post quite informative until i read the word 'Wigan'
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
It might be more interesting to see % occupancy available at each month from January - September for the next season. Or to restrict the bookings to repeat bookings only.
As far as we know there may have been a massive promotion in July, August & September causing lots of extra bookings to be made and skewing the chart.
Are total bookings made to date up or down on this time last year?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
Should I be worrying?... In the five years we have been doing this malarky we have only had one or 2 bookings in the 'peakest' periods indicated by this chart (which looks stupid in its 3d fashion).
We normally receive UK bookings from October to December.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
| flangesax wrote: |
| Should I be worrying |
?
As I said, I think the fact that we send out over 50,000 brochures in Jan each year may have a slight baring on our booking trends.
The main point of the post (apart from having ten mins to spare) was just interest. Booking trends and themes this year (for the our ski product) seem to have moved a few month
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
ctskifam, well you have a good product so you should tell people about your bookings. Glad to see that bookings are going well for you. Glad to see my local experience of people with families not booking any more is not affecting your bookings.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
chrisb, out of interest - and in your experience - is it straightforward economic uncertainty and/or cost that you think is putting families off or are there other factors at play?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
ctskifam, Sorry to stick my oar in, I think that with family holidays being limited to the holidays it is a harder call than when the children are pre school.I am a big fan of your company and am always happy to recommend Skifamille, but even if I can convince the Mrs. Lightning that Christmas in Les Gets is a great idea, and much better than staying in England, we still need to find £4000 once we cover flights , hire and passes. Until the future is a bit brighter it is more than we can afford comfortably. Looking at how busy you are is proof that what you do is working and there are people out there who disagree with me.
We have a summer holiday and weekend breaks which diminish our "winter budget" much to my chagrin.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
People spending months considering DIY trips then finding out it’s actually more expensive than booking with a TO
|
I spend 0.1 nano second considering a TO holiday and then book 3 DIY trips in June/ July for next season when the cheap flights come out from Lufthansa/ Swiss........ its not all about price (even though I believe my trips are cheaper anyway), its about value, and mostly about being in control and doing what you the skier want rather than what the TO believes you want IMO. I have not been on a TO holiday for years, and dont know many that have..............viva t'internet (sorry to all TO's if I've offended anyone, but I get insulted when TO's slash prices the week before I used to go and then was sat next to gloating people around the dinner table telling me what a bargain they got, and also fed up waiting on transfer bus for the Gatwick flight thats 2 hours late, oh sorry its now another 2 hours, and seeing the clock ticking when I've been up since 3am thinking I might be able to ski all day on arrival, only to be sat at the airport at 12 noon listening to excuses). 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wayne, I agree nothing wrong with Wigan, I work there!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
lightningdan, priorites surely - camping in the garden next summer ... kids love it!
I know it's an expensive holiday - fingers crossed the Euro drops around 10 cents over the next 9 months; competiton will ensure that most of that feeds in to chalet holiday prices.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I book last minute for several reasons. Cheaper, choose where the snow is best, Can decide on my budget better, get last minute deals. I have never booked a ski holiday more than 5 weeks in advance and never will do. Its not like there wont be any room left ( unless going in school holidays)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
