Cool dry winter for Northern Europe predicted...

A snowHead

and a warmer wetter winter for Souther Europe including the Alps. Thats the outlook from the Met Office based on their North Atlantic Oscillation model.

This is essentially a representation of the difference in pressure between the Azores and the north Atlantic. Its apparently moving into a negative phase and is expected to do so for a number of years. One of the effects tends to be an incidence of blocking anticyclones bringing cooler drier weather to northern Europe and wetter milder westerlies to south Europe. That may be good news for the higher French resorts but possibly bad news for the southern Alps.

In the UK it can bring very clear but cold northerly winds which is good for the eastern Cairngorms but not really anywhere else. However depending where the blocking system is it can allow in easterly airstreams, which if like last February, can really lay the snow down in the eastern UK. Laughing

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/seasonal/regional/nao/index.html

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it at the moment but it is unusual for the Met office to be suggesting a cooler than average winter. In recent years they've generally been right in pointing towards milder than average winters for northern Europe.

A snowHead

brian

Peter S, thanks for that. The NAO has been due to flip, I think. Hopefully it will now stay negative and we'll get a run of Scottish winters like in the 80s which I think was the last major -ve phase of the NAO.

DB, a -ve NAO tends to lead to "blocked" setups. That is high pressure out in the Atlantic stopping the "normal" run of low pressure systems and hence mainly w'ly and sw'ly winds, over the UK. Such a block occurred in Feb/early March last season, so that should give you some idea of likely patterns.

You need to Login to know who's really who.

I have to admit that the science behind it is meaningless to me but looking at the charts on the site they seem to be predicting a cold winter for northern Europe (anything above Paris, Berlin, Moscow and below the Orkneys/Stockholm) with the rest average. Given last year's drought, an average wet winter would be very good news in the southern European Alps!

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

It has to be said that Southern Europe and Iberia could really do with a long, gentle, wet winter. To be honest I'd rather lose a few weeks skiing in the Alps if there's a chance to replenish some of the aquifers in Southern Europe. In the long term it's more important than skiing. (can't believe I said that) But if I’m reading the history (and this thread) right, the Northern Alps and into Austria could get a mega dump this Winter?

You'll need to Register first of course.

I'm no expert on the weather, but it (the charts) looks to me as though the Alps will have "normal" temperatures. I do hope for Scotland's sake they're right and they have a few really good winters.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

I'm sure that last Autumn there were predicitons (can't recall where, but there were reports in the media) for one of the hardest, coldest winters for many, many years...... erm this is all a bit vague innit Puzzled

Anyway my point is that the winter we had in the UK was not particularly colder than most I remember, so I take most weather forecasts (especially long term) with a pinch of salt Very Happy

They'll be saying that the earth isn't flat next......

After all it is free

Hywel,

Hywel, snowbunny, of course the earth isn't flat. If it wasn't for the pointy bits, what would we ski on?

*Ski* the Net with snowHeads

brian

To be fair, this isn't a long term forecast. It's a prediction that the NAO will be negative.

Then they're saying that *if* the NAO is negative, it tends to favour cooler weather in the UK. This is only a tendency though, you can end up with a blocking high pressure too far East and horrible mild air dragged over Scotland for weeks on end. Sad

Overall, it's an encouraging sign though (for Scotland at least) snowHead

Help!!

Cool dry winter for Northern Europe predicted...

snowHeads Forum Index >>> The Piste