 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
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My neighbour left her house around 7am and it had wasn't snowing.
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the Met office was showing severe weather warnings by that time - I noted them in passing as I checked our own. And you are in the midst of several weeks of freakily cold weather. And no, I wouldn't have a flask, but my car (in Hampshire!) has a bag of assorted tatty old hats, scarves, gloves etc, bottled water, muesli bars and chocolate. The food is permanent. Plus some cash. when the kids were small it was called the "Car Emergency" box and they were always asking "is this a 'mergency?" when they wanted chocolate (it usually wasn't). It's partly a habit, having a diabetic husband and having lived quite a long time in places where you expect to have to look after yourself if you have a puncture, or a breakdown and now spending winters in the Alps. When the kids were little the 'Mergency kit included a couple of jars of Heinz slosh. No, I don't live there (though I have in the past and spent the entire winters driving over Eaglesham moor twice a day with the necessary) but no way, in the weather you've been having up there, does it make sense to take a small baby out without a decent stock of food - which at that age means a ready made milk carton and a bottle, a couple of pouches of food and a spoon. Couple of nappies. Not rocket science. No excuses. |
As I said in my post, we were forecast from 3am with heavy snow, I was well aware of that, but it didn't happen. It didn't start until around 7.30am, as I said in my post. You have no idea how often we do get forecast for snow and we never see any of it. I'm sure some people thought this was the same thing.
But by the time it did happen, rush hour was in full swing on a Monday morning when the previous week had been a nightmare. There are horrendous roadworks around this neck of the woods.
I have never seen anything like this in my lifetime up here and I probably never will again, equally never has my 63 year old mother. It will be the same for thousands of others.
A lot of people do carry emergency stuff, I do. Not much good when some people were stuck for 19 hours and some people stuck in their lorries on the M8 at a service station having only moved 7 miles in something like 18 hours and were then subsequently stranded until this morning when the M8 finally opened.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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And things are only getting slowly better. I've just been told there is still hard packed ice on all the carriageways of the Kingston Bridge, right in the centre of Glasgow, surely, in this day, there is some means of clearing that by now?
What concerns me more is the vagueness of the forecast for the next few days. Unfortunately I can't screen grab it and therefore it may change, but have a look at the Met Office website for Strathclyde, the warnings are very brief and the forecasts not much better, all we can surmise is that it is going to be milder for a couple of days. The outlook for Friday to Sunday is so brief it is useless. Presumably with a high of 7c there will be a thaw? Yet the word thaw is not even mentioned. They seem to expect precipitation which they mention as falling as rain, will that make things worse or better? Will it be snow at first or on high ground, will it be freezing rain? No detail at all. As I and others have said Mondays congestion was made worse by the fact that the snow forecast for during the night originally materialised as rain at around 7am. What if the same thing happens tomorrow?
The MetO forecast for up to 30 days actually gives more details than the 3 to 5 day and warns us it will continue to be cold and possibly snowy. If you look at TWO (The Weather Outlook) they are talking of serious, bitter cold from early next week. Why cant the Meto come out with that now and allow people and businesses to plan accordingly
IMHO this is just not enough. The current system is just not working in terms of giving people the correct information to make a decision and have contingency plans in place. Even if they are uncertain they should list the probabilities/possibilities and percentages. I'm sure everyone will be much better prepared in terms of what is in their car, but that is not going to clear the roads if everyone heads out on a wet morning and ends up in a scene from "The Day After Tomorrow"
It is only the 8th of December, this could quite probably happen again any time in the next 3 or 4 months. I just wish our politicians would stop point scoring and deflecting the hard questions and sort it out.
Back on topic, fantastic pictures Shimmy Alcott, I'm very jealous!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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But where are the pictures of you skiing, SA?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Have to say i totally agree with robboj, the forecasts are very vague indeed and not at all helpful. I think this must have something to do with the Met being vcaught out more than once recently and it's not just in one area of the country ot's all over the place. I've been watching their weather warnings over the last while and they're in constant flux and often warnings are changed or only issued at the last minute. However, it's not totally their fault the models have been hard to interpret for snow and extreme events and it's often only possible to get a general idea of what's going on. They have been more accurate in their more general short term forecasts over this last period than many others though so feather in their caps there.
Anyway, great photos there Shimmy Alcott, keep 'em coming 
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I've been kicked off the lap top by the kids - the photos on there. You will all have to be patient 
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| roga wrote: |
| Have to say i totally agree with robboj, the forecasts are very vague indeed and not at all helpful. I think this must have something to do with the Met being vcaught out more than once recently and it's not just in one area of the country ot's all over the place. I've been watching their weather warnings over the last while and they're in constant flux and often warnings are changed or only issued at the last minute. However, it's not totally their fault the models have been hard to interpret for snow and extreme events and it's often only possible to get a general idea of what's going on. They have been more accurate in their more general short term forecasts over this last period than many others though so feather in their caps there. |
I disagree & think they've been pretty good as it goes. Remember that small details like where a front stalls (20 miles either side of the M8 corridor on Monday am would not have made the news) and therefore whether there's 5 or 15 mm of ppn in someone's yard are almost impossible to predict. That makes the differnce between a couple of inches or six inches of snow.
The outlook now is a milder interlude, a little drizzle in the northwest, a thaw of snow and ice at road levels, then becoming mostly dry and cold for a few days. Their outlook beyond the forecast is then unequivocal with a return to cold, mobile conditions i.e. snow.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Monday 13 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 22 Dec 2010:
A mainly dry start to next week is expected, but with the risk of occasional rain, sleet and perhaps hill snow in the east. Into the latter half the first week and into the second week, there is an increasing chance of snow showers in northern and eastern parts of the UK, with some significant accumulations likely. Best of any dry and sunny weather likely towards southern and western parts of the UK, although even here some snow is possible. Winds are likely to be light at first, but will become strong towards the end of the first week, with perhaps a risk of gales in eastern parts. Temperatures will be cold or very cold throughout, with widespread, locally severe, overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches developing in places.
Updated: 1142 on Wed 8 Dec 2010
UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Dec 2010 to Thursday 6 Jan 2011:
For the remainder of December and into the start of the New Year, temperatures look set to remain very cold, well below average for much of the UK, with often widespread frost and the risk of ice. Precipitation amounts are expected to be generally around average for many, with further snowfall a distinct possibility in places. However, western parts of the UK may see more in the way of drier weather. Amounts of sunshine should be around or slightly above average for many.
Updated: 1208 on Wed 8 Dec 2010
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Shimmy Alcott, was that photo at the top of the page taken on the M8 or M74? Difficult to tell
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
As I said in my post, we were forecast from 3am with heavy snow, I was well aware of that, but it didn't happen. It didn't start until around 7.30am, as I said in my post.
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Whatever is the world coming to? Front arrives 4 hours later than forecast, absolutely shocking. String 'em up.
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boabski,
I will post some of those shote - but they are on the other camera. Unfortunately they dont do justice to the scenes we saw - should have run the video recorder setting instead to get the sheer magnitude of the hundreds of abandoned cars we passed.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I will post some of those shote
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don't bother with the shote ones, just show us the goodies.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| pam w wrote: |
Whatever is the world coming to? Front arrives 4 hours later than forecast, absolutely shocking. String 'em up. |
You do have a point Pam, it is almost impossible to forecast.
However IMHO the actual forecast is not the problem. It is whether or not the general public are sufficiently aware of it and even if they are, how they interpret it, or if they even believe it? Do people see the MetO as crying wolf with constant weather warnings these days for anything other than fair weather?
I was aware of the forecast and the warnings, The first thing I did on Monday morning was look out expecting to see another covering of snow that would still be falling. Instead I saw fairly heavy rain.
I know enough about the weather to know it could still turn to snow due to any number of factors and told my wife that she should not drive to work in her RWD car but that I would take her in my 4x4, even though it is only a couple of miles away. By the time I had dropped her off it was snowing and roughly an hour later the first real warnings were sounded.
So, for what its worth, I think that too many people did not know the forecast, and too many of those that did only thought that the blooming weatherman had got it wrong yet again!
Yes they might be stupid, but too many people think like that for it to be all their fault. It is too late for this winter to change the situation with physical resources, but we can change the way the potential problems are communicated.
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Have to say Monday mornings weather was wierd. Expecting snow after a frozen night I looked outside and it appeared that full blown thaw was in process raining hard and water pouring of everything it did not feel cold. ( I had been out late the night before and the temperature was jumping around).
I set off to work in the rain and the snow started but no real problem untill I was turned back because of an accident. The snow just got thicker and thicker and everything seemed to turn to ice and the temperature through the morning just kept dropping. All the side roads round these parts are still pretty ice covered and a lot of cars are still unable to move. Apart from a few years abroad I have lived in Scotland since the late 70's and have never seen anything quite like it.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
As I said in my post, we were forecast from 3am with heavy snow, I was well aware of that, but it didn't happen. It didn't start until around 7.30am, as I said in my post.
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Whatever is the world coming to? Front arrives 4 hours later than forecast, absolutely shocking. String 'em up. |
Whatever. Perhaps quote the rest of what I said and look at my other post properly instead of just taking chunks of it.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I agree that it would be much better if the Met Office put a confidence figure on their reports. I have argued that every now and then over the last 7 years on Snowheads. It's annoying when they forecast in rather definite terms, when the nature of the data prevents their being definite at all. It would be better if they said they hadn't a clue.
Sure, snow is sometimes forecast when it doesn't happen. I am a sailor, and strong winds are sometimes forecast when they don't happen, too. Weather is like that, and they get it in the neck if the snow or the wind arrives and they've not warned people.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Fair points moffatross but I did say they were more accurate than most at short range and I did say it was very difficult to pin down the details at the moment. Fact is that the warnings are often posted at the last minute and change a lot though, not necessarily their fault but it does make it quite difficult to know what's going on.
As for the next few days a brief thaw over the weekend (still I believe below seasonal average) and then back into the freezer with potentially colder and more extreme weather is what I've heard/read!
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brian
brian
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roga, will be well above average for a couple of days but also largely dry so will be snow consolidation rather than disastrous melt. Then probably back to cold later next week. Looking good for the hols. 
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brian, I'm seeing maxes of around 2 degrees Friday into Saturday at the top station at Cairngorm then a slow drop back to below freezing into next week - is 2 degrees well above average or have you seen higher temps predicted?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I did a mega double take today when I saw temps not in the minus on my car display
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| roga wrote: |
| brian, I'm seeing maxes of around 2 degrees Friday into Saturday at the top station at Cairngorm then a slow drop back to below freezing into next week - is 2 degrees well above average or have you seen higher temps predicted? |
roga, I don't think it should be 'well above average' either as the mean December temperature in Coire Cas car park is recorded at 1.7C. But there will be melting/consolidation at all levels for sure in strong winds, a summit temperature of around 2C, Aviemore temperature around 5C and a FL varying from 2,000 to 3,000 metres over a 3 day period before dropping rapidly again.
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brian
brian
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Think the summit temp could get to 4 or 5 if the sun shines on saturday. Would imagine the averageis a good bit below freezing up there in December.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| 36 hours after the snow - the M74 was still covered in snow. Just one lane had been ploughed through by cars (this was not a clear lane - just two narrow rows where tyres had ploughed through to the road surface). THIS WAS 36 HOURS AFTER THE SNOW ON A MOTORWAY OUT OF A MAJOR CITY. Do you honestly think the authorities handled this situation well? |
Going to and from Aberdeen and Aviemore at the end of last week, the difference in the condition of Transerv maintained trunk roads (excellent) to BEAR ones (complete mess) was striking to say the least. The A96 approaching Aberdeen was only one lane on the Dual Carriageway with lumps of old packed snow and just black tracks, while even the council maintained Dual Carriageway on the A944 from Westhill into Aberdeen had four perfect black lanes, despite more snow about it!
Rather than clear the crawler lanes on the A96, BEAR instead went along the road using resources to cover up all the overtaking lane ahead signs, and frankly the manor in which the cleared lane meandered across crawler lanes and in and out of junction stacking lanes was just downright dangerous - this wasn't just in the aftermath of snowfall, but it's been like that for many days, infact probably over a week.
Specifically with the Central Belt situation though one of the really dumb things the authorities have done, is persisting with the obsession of only using pure rock salt on trunk roads. Given that road temperatures have been regularly going below the temperature at which rock salt is ineffective, only sanding the roads is going to aid traction. The Highland Council managed to keep many roads in an easily passable state even in a 2wd car with summer tyres last year without the use of rocksalt, by ploughing down, packing down, then sanding.
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pam w, Shimmy Alcott, now now come on a  disagreement can only be settled in the back room of Boris's bar in the paddling pool filled with rasberry jelly.
p.s. please send photos
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Rather than clear the crawler lanes on the A96, BEAR instead went along the road using resources to cover up all the overtaking lane ahead signs, and frankly the manor in which the cleared lane meandered across crawler lanes and in and out of junction stacking lanes was just downright dangerous - this wasn't just in the aftermath of snowfall, but it's been like that for many days, infact probably over a week.
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It was the same last year - the Gelns of Foundland crawler lane was a joke - basically we were down to two separate single carraigeway roads seperated by a snow bank. The roads around me, which are being maintained by the council and farmers on contract, have been good - the unclassified backroads have been regularly ploughed and left as packed snow. Some which have got a bit too polished have been gritted by the council with grit (not salt) which has improved grip for cars if not the bases of my xc kit.
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You know it makes sense.
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T Bar,
It might be unusual for Scotland, but those are the conditions that have brought London and the SOuth East to a halt quite often.
Cold, tiny amount of snow, warmer, heavy rain washing off the salt, getting colder, perhaps hail, snow which melts, snow wich doens't melt and you're looking at an ice rink under wet snow. The area affected can be small, just the West London, not even the city, or just the M11 part of Essex. Time it to coincice with the rush hour and nobody can get through to deal with the jacknifed lorries.
It made Berkely square impossible to walk on and tricky to drive on in the space of an hour.
I had to get home through it twice heading north. Basically you have a queue of traffic moving at walking pace, that's how long it takes to clear the motorway if there is no actual blockage.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Was up the Glens of Foundland road last night and at least they've ploughed it so there a a single 2 lane road, no big snow nbank in the middle last year. However they seem to be doing road works on the Huntly side so had one lane coned off, but ploughed. Could be interesting when we get more snow.
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Poster: A snowHead
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double post 
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 22-12-10 19:55; edited 2 times in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
Are the BackCorries skiable at Nevis yet?
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Will have a look see and let you know tomorrow.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Fantastic here in Aviemore - great windblown power on most runs (a few a bit hard underneath but hey it's Scotland), very cold (-19 when I got in the car this morning), no wind and bluebird.
Worth getting up here if you can guys - a mate of mine in Portes de Soleil reckons it's way better than over there at the moment!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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was -17 at lunchtime in the sun in the village and didnt get much warmer all day, but significantly warmer on the hill (a balmy -6 in the top carpark, didnt get further than that, just picking up the wife who was out for a ski while i entertained the nipper  ), an inversion has trapped the cold into the Strath, could be stuck for a while!
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FAQ
