 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, indeed, just need it to kick in on the 13th or earlier, not the 15th!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The wigglies for the second half of April are making me groan.
We've been placing bets here that as soon as the lifts shut, it's going to be cold and snowy all through May...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
We've been placing bets here that as soon as the lifts shut, it's going to be cold and snowy all through May...
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I wouldn't be at all surprised. And even it becomes before all the lifts are shut, the lower pistes which have been closed and cleared won't re-open, I bet.
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Hot and sunny. Good BBQ weather. All the way through to next Wednesday...
Then a blast of winter? Based on this morning's output temperatures will fall quickly through Wednesday. And potential for snowfall in the eastern Alps.
By and large it looks like temperatures will then rally once more, though perhaps only briefly as the majority of runs over the last few days have been suggesting a colder and unsettled period from around mid month. This morning's output is less clear cut (hinting that warmer temperatures may only be temporarily kept at bay). But well worth keeping an eye on.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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moffatross, could really do with the Euro high collapsing south, haven't changed my money yet 
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moffatross, that's exactly what I meant, it is looking warm all the way through until you get to next Wenesday. Anyway the chart was pretty clear even if my meaning wasn't.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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moffatross, If it was me and I only had option of single set up then always the off-piste set up. Fat skis can do piste as well, but skinny skis off piste aren't much fun. Also with slushy afternoons a pair of floatier skis is quite good.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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moffatross, like waynos says I think you are much more likely to regret taking the piste skis than the off piste skis. That said haven't been to Ischgl since December so... But I have had great times there in May... Tuesday snow was being favoured by ZAMG too (I wonder if they use DWD?). Of course fresh snow may present some complications in terms of interrupting the spring snow freeze melt cycle and can (the day after) end up being rather stodgy.
Back to your question though, as waynos says wide skis will enjoy slush more... So all in all wide is good! Enjoy Niki's Stadl and Hotel Elizabeth! 
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Thanks nozawaonsen, PHEWW !! I half expected that the Niki's Stadl & Hotel Elizabeth vids I just watched on youtube were going to be NSFW !! 
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You know it makes sense.
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moffatross, I am en route to stuben, in a hotel near mainz bindings mounted on 112mm skis, 98mms unmounted but in the car...keep the faith, next week second half freshies here we come!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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moffatross, have a great time in Austria 
MWIS are predicting snow in Scotland down to 600 metres next week - could resuscitate the season if it happens with only Cairngorm managing to stay open this weekend and into next week.
Fingers crossed on that one and we'll see what the weather brings ... otherwise it may be time for a sneaky last minute Alpine trip for me!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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kitenski, hope it's really good - you might just get that snow......
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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ringingmaster, that's a slightly out of date chart (Sestriere), but you are right it does continue to look unsettled and slightly cooler in the second half of the month.
That said it is not looking quite as cool from 17 April as it was a few days ago. Heavy snow 2000m+ if that verified.
Keep in mind too that there is a tendency for precipitation to be reigned in as it enters hi res (ie 192-).
Around the 21 April has also been looking interesting over last few runs. Interesting to see if the cooler than average temperatures continue to crop up...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I did not know that the charts came in delayed versions. Will update my links!!!
In val T for the week starting 16th. After weeks of hoping for snow, I now find myself hoping for at least some sun.
Will watch with interest.
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Having just come back from the Mountains (Serre Che) after 5 weeks I have to say that forecasts were all over the place - and looking at what's going to happen, attempt to pontificate, analyse the latest runs is total bollox and then try to give a detailed assessment of where it's going to snow is a joke!
One week all the various models had rain / snow for most of the week, we ended up with one day of light rain / snow the rest of the week was wall to wall sunshine.
Another week we were due some light snow which we had, whilst up at Montgenevre they had 25cms.
Each valley has in effect it's micro climate, at each Col the advancing weather system can halt, unless you have a big depression / storm then it's really hard to guess what will happen.
And what do you suggest will happen on South facing slopes where the snow line is around 2200 even on N facing slopes they've been blasting the soft snow?
I was with some friends on Friday (they live at 1750m) and we all agreed that there is bound to be another dump sooner or later and like last year, end of April the snow was so heavy due to warm temps it caused more damage due to the weight of the snow than more normal winter snow.
And if it does snow lower down on the lesser gradient slopes then it will not stay for long.
Hope I'm wrong for those going out - stay high if you can, and I mean well over 3,000ms
Should add a caveat here that I do a fair bit of amateur forecasting here in the UK plus know my snow, so I sort of know what I'm talking about
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That's interesting. Personally I'd suggest you might have come in a bit strong in your first paragraph. For what it's worth in my opinion most of the models I've been watching over the season have been pretty good (remembering of course that beyond seven days the best you will really get is a trend). Clearly a model like GFS is going to struggle with getting any detail for a particular valley. Smaller scale models like WRF are more use closer in certainly with precipitation. I'd still go with the local avalanche report if I wanted day to day forecasts.
Looking at the archives GFS was predicting very warm temperatures in the Alps for the last week of March and first week of April since 12z 18 March, and by and large it held consistent to this throughout the following period. I got pretty much exactly what I expected in the Arlberg based on the models I'd been watching. Hot and sunny.
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| Quote: |
| Looking at the archives GFS was predicting very warm temperatures in the Alps for the last week of March and first week of April since 12z 18 March |
Archives are always good for predicting the weather that has already been.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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OK I know it's tantamount to swearing in this forum but snow-forecast are predicting a nice dump of snow for VT for Fri Night\Sat morning. Do our resident weatherheads see anything to back this up?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The wind swung round to the north on Saturday and it was noticeably colder on Sunday. We'll continue with these northerly winds this week with a dusting of snow maybe on Thursday evening above 1500m.
Most snow over the next week out on the Italian border again, places like Val d'Isere and Bonneval (which still has good snow) will fair better than VT.
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You know it makes sense.
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Archives are always good for predicting the weather that has already been.
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davidof, I'm not too sure what your point is, but all I was attempting to say was that looking back through the archives GFS had been predicting some really warm weather in the Alps for the last week of March and first week of April since 18 March. This was in fact pretty much what happened. Hence it seemed a reasonable validation of the model's performance during that period. 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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It looks increasingly likely that the 2010 / 2011 European Alps season will go down as one of the least snowy of all time 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Here's this evening's WRF for the next day and a half. Some very light snow for much of the Alps. Getting quite a bit stronger over Eastern Switzerland and Austria.
Further out GFS still offering up some options for snow at the end of the week and into the weekend. And still worth keeping an eye on 20/21 April.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| It looks increasingly likely that the 2010 / 2011 European Alps season will go down as one of the least snowy of all time |
At least until 2011/2012.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Snowing nicely in parts of Austria now and looks set to stay cold in the east and around seasonal average in the rest of the Alps for the next few days. Potentially snow on Friday. But sunshine is not far away and it looks likely that things will be warming up for the weekend. Still possible cooler spell on or around 21 April, but it is looking progressively less significant.
It doesn't look like it will be quite as warm as it was last week, but the trend at the moment is for an above average run to the end of April.
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No real change. Warming slightly from end of week. Not as hot as it has been, but still mild.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hmmm... No relief in sight... Running warm the whole way through...
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Quick question to the experts, looking at the link below it looks like precipitation is heading towards the Alps next week, is this typical of an extended forecast? and secondly if I am going to Tignes is this likely to be snow or rain. I realise this is not exact but would like to hear from someone who really understands the charts. Thanks.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=2
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lightningdan, the model you've flagged up there is the control run of the Canadian model GEM.
A number of models are suggesting some sort of disturbance for the French Alps around next Sunday/Monday (and relatively unsettled for much of that week) which could bring rain (snow), but as you can see from the GFS models above there is not strong consensus at present. So I would suggest worth watching, but without great confidence unless the disturbance continues to be shown clearly over the next few days. I must admit I've not been paying too much attention recently, and without getting a sense of what different models have been showing recently (apart from warm) I'd be wary of saying more than that.
In terms of snow level, it's an estimate, but I would suggest around 2400m if that were to verify.
Incidentally on a more general point I can only underline what I've said repeatedly.
- Personally I would take LRFs with a pinch of salt. The further out the more salt I would take. I'm curious to see what they say though, even the very long range experimental ones. Doesn't mean I'd take them seriously though.
- If over several months, they start to show some consistency my curiosity will be peaked.
- If other models start to share that consensus over time I think that is interesting. That doesn't mean I'd take them that seriously and inevitably I would expect the detail to be relatively broad and vague.
- Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.
- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.
- Don't take it that seriously.
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"The end of season skiing situation has turned out not necessarily to our advantage" to rather misquote Emperor Hirohito.
For those heading out to for example Val Thorens next week the outlook continues to be warmer than average with the addition that next week looks quite unsettled with the likelihood of cloud and some rain (snow at altitude and I do mean altitude) through much of the week (Monday in particular, Tuesday and Wednesday look like they could be sunnier). The snowfall level looks like it will be swinging between 2200m to 2800m during the week.
Anyway for those about to ski- I salute you! Head high. Have fun!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Here's a meteogram for Val Thorens (or not far off).
Suggests it may cloud over later today/tonight and bring some rain/snow higher up. Much sunnier Tuesday and Wednesday. Cloudier with possibility of rain/snow towards the end of the week.
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FAQ
I was so excited to see the cross-model agreement for a few earlier than expected freshies this morning. I absolutely love skiing a week of weather contrasts & that's exactly what looks like being delivered next week to the Tyrol. I'm travelling out on Sunday for 6 days skiing Monday to Saturday & due to baggage allowance restrictionc, I've got to choose a set of skis & boots to take. As you know Ischgl, would you gamble on packing the 90 mm tourers & BC kit rather than 80 mm piste bashers yet. 
that's just the kind of reassurance I want to read. 
