 Poster: A snowHead
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Just when I thought we had turned the corner, it is getting milder.
Rain in some Austrian resorts and hard pack and rocks in many other European destinations.
Places that I had my eye on, such as Alpe d Huez, do not seem that promising for the next week or so.
Think I may give European late bookings a miss and do a fortnight in the US instead.... unless there is a dramatic turn around
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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European temperatures should start to drop soon, I just looked up the forecast for Wengen and there may be a little light snowfall this coming Thursday, but the following week could be very heavy snowfalls with a possible 2 ft of snow
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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D G Orf,
Where did you get this from...?
It is will just in time for me if true...!!
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Still convincing myself they'll be plenty of snow the next 3 weeks before I head off to Tignes... but things don't look great do they? 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I'm afraid I don't like what I am seeing here in the last (132 hour) map.
I have 2 holidays booked this year. Maybe this will be the last time. Looking at the Ski Cub snow report (open to non-members, I think) if you pick your resort area then go, you could have great snow, but normally good resorts (for this time of the year) could be disappointing. Despite the cost of booking flights late, I am beginning to think it best to keep options totally open until the last minute – unless other circumstances like coping with a large party apply.
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I've been using the NOAA forecasting system which I have found surprisingly accurate up to about 10 days ahead which as any good forecaster will tell you is about as far as you can get an accurate report for, these are the chaps that do the forecasts for NASA and the US military or at least they use the same computer systems which tend to be fairly accurate, they've been very close for the whole season so far, far more so than sow guess or met check for example
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D G Orf, Must admit the NOAA has the resources to be the best. But I can't find a link that gives me Apline weather. Mind pointing me in the right direction?
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Well, I am rooting for this system then...
I normally look at the north Atlantic weather on the East coast of America on the basis that that will all end up over here
within the week...!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Some resorts show freezing point at 3000m in Austria definitely not good lots of people saying next significant snowfall not until after next week end and some say the 18th at the earliest (info from scgb site)
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Nick Zotov, you need the latitude and longitude of the resort you are going to, for instance Wengen is 46.61N 7.92E approximately, then it helps if you are also aware of the current atmospheric pressure as this gives a more accurate temperature prediction. then I just go here
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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D G Orf, Fascinating, thanks.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Multimap is a good source of finding the lat and long.
D G Orf, which option do you select from the first page on the link you gave?
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m00958, start off with the default value though sometimes it's nice to be able to see what direction the wind is expected, only any good if for example you know which direction a fohn (warm) wind is likely to come from for your area, I used Autoroute for LAT and LONG but then I have it on my system, your suggestion of Multimap is also good.
As you get the hang of the software you will find that you can choose custom settings but to do so it's really useful to know the local normal atmospheric pressure as this has a big effect on temperatures etc.
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You know it makes sense.
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D G Orf, this is really interesting stuff, I note that you said earlier that "European temperatures should start to drop soon, I just looked up the forecast for Wengen and there may be a little light snowfall this coming Thursday, but the following week could be very heavy snowfalls with a possible 2 ft of snow"
Can you tell me which charts show you this? What should I select to see these and where the snow could fall?
Mick
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Ok the "European temperatures should start to drop soon" is based on the Wengen forecast as it's roughly in the middle E-W wise of the alps, thus if Wengen gets colder then so will many other resorts
Right now in detail
Go to the first page I linked to and enter the Lat and Long of your favorite location.
Next page choose Meteogram with one of the three GFS options from the drop down, I usually use 0-180 hr and 192 - 384 hr
Next screen choose default with winds up at the top, unless you're sure of what your doing, then near the bottom choose graphic with text and the display size, finally at the bottom you will have to enter a code word, the word is given in a graphic just above the box and it changes every time, it's to prevent automated sytstems using the NOAA weather forecast but it's free to use to the public
The next screen will be the chart and there you go
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Poster: A snowHead
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Ok, well for Saas Fee (I am off in 8 days) it does indicate a little precipitation in the middle of this week, and then more the week after. Also getting far colder than at present. Am I reading this correctly?
Also I have run the GFS charts from net-weather.co.uk and these seem to back this up.
Thanks for the help.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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micksup, sounds about right, looks like you may be experiencing blizzards in Sass Fee, however be aware that in all honesty the forecast for the first week is fairly accurate but beyond that it gets much less so, the thing to do is check every couple of days because even a slight change in wind directio or speed can result in snow falling on the next mountain over but not on you
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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D G Orf, yes understood. Even a little will be most welcome, its been 2 weeks now with clear skies. However the general view is that there is a decent chance for all the Alps to get something better in the w/c 16th Jan.
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D G Orf, got grid refs for La Plagne, followed your intructions, clicked on Meteogram, and got this!
Where did I go wrong?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Jonpim, It's obviously so good it can predict what's going to happen in the bars later on in the day when you've got the beer googles on 
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Dan, couldnt have put it better myself 
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D G Orf. I am very glad you explained it step by step.
My knowledge never got past second form geography and 'winds flow from high to low'.
I clicked on the site initially and thought 'What on earth am I supposed to do I do with all this ?'
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The 132hr chart is showing that the temperature will go down as the large high will bring air down from Scandinavia. Unfortunately it'll be fairly dry air as it'll come down the continent.
All the models are showing some snow for the Alps late this week (though there will be less the further south you go).
There are some good charts for at the wetterzentrale http://129.13.102.67/topkarten/tkavnmgeur.htm select the place and the type. Select "Genf" for Geneva. Again it's all GFS which corase past about ten days and gets more accurate closer in. If you want other GFS charts, and other model output, it's here: http://129.13.102.67/topkarten/fsavneur.html
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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skanky, are you hopefull for the w/c 16 Jan, GFS is looking reasonable at present? Best for Wed and Thurs that week.
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micksup, I'm hopeful and reasonably optimistic, but it's a little too far out at the moment, still. Seeing as everyone expects the high to develop over the UK now, things should at least be cold (for a time).
Basically, after the next couple of lows move through, the second one has an associated cold front that everyone expects to bring something to the western Alps on Wed/Thur (doesn't look like much). After this, there's a rdige of high pressure over the UK which brings some cold air down its eastern flank (hence the cold front), which should keep things chilly for a time. They all pretty much then move the high eastwards over the weekend which warms things slightly. However as the centre of the high is over central Europe, there should be some clear weather and cold(er) nights. After that there's a divergence of views but most of the models expect something to occur next week (e.g. GFS is not expecting a lot of precipitation in Les Arcs, but it is expecting some) - so merely going on the trend, I'm hopeful. It still looking like the better stuff's going to be further NE (though don't take my word for it). Still time for it to change, again.
BTW D G Orf, just had a chance to look at the link on the NOAA site. I hadn't seen those charts before (the ones where you can put in Lat & Long). Very useful, thanks for that.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Anticipated Precipitation is now a lot less, it has virtually halved in the last couople of days however I have no doubts that we will get some
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The 06z run will be out soon. This tends to be the better run as there are more included obs (I think that's the reason).
EDIT: It's out now and that may be the one you looked at, sorry.
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You know it makes sense.
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D G Orf Been following your instructions re NOAA (they're great) but here's the stupid question - how do you know precipitation is snow and not rain?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Well you look at the forecasted temperature and if it says below zero it will be snow, and if it's over +5 it will be rain, the skill comes in guessing wheather it will fall as snow or rain in the 0-+5 C range that just comes with experience
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Poster: A snowHead
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In that case it's looking good 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Any chance of a plain english guess at the weather for the next two weeks.....what i really mean is 'will it snow in france before the 24th jan'.
Thankyou in anticipation.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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ian bloomfield, probably but there might not be very much of it
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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SueS for every 300 metres altitude difference there is a 1 degree temperature change. So if the forecast is for rain in Bourg St Maurice at 700 metres and 2 degrees then it will most likely be snowing in La Rosiere at 1850 metres and -2 degrees and even more likely to be snowing on Mont Valasian at 2,700 metres and -5 degrees.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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An interesting article from Deutsche Welle about the current situation in Germany
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| If the unseasonable weather keeps up, this January will turn out to be the warmest ever in Germany, with temperatures around six degrees higher than normal, according to Riek Schaab of the German Weather Service in Offenbach. |
And some gloomy predictions for the future
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Rising temperatures aren't the only problem, however. Skiers need snow, but precipitation in the month of January -- the height of ski season -- is expected to drop one-fifth by 2035, Seiler told the Stadt Anzeiger. Precipitation is expected to increase by one-third in March and April, however. Then, the snow that does fall will come increasingly in the form of storms, which would increase the likelihood of avalanches.
Should they occur, such climate changes would deal a near-deadly blow to the lower lying resorts, which rely heavily on ski season revenues. |
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what does the seaweed say tonight?
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