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Pointless snowfall speculation

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
davidof, Tig-ness had an epic snowfall last winter, I remember it dumping 1.5metres in the few days before I got there (Dec 12th or something like that) and then as my friends started to leave right at the end of the season we kept getting snow overnight and sun the next day. I remember skiing Piste H on my way to Double M in the morning (on somthing like April 5th) and getting fresh tracks.....on a piste! Then if that wasn't enough I had the same again when I left on May 2nd. Granted it wasn't deep powder but it was still a nice way to end an awesome season.

I'm heading back to Tignes on 13th of Dec but only for a week this year but hopefully it'll be completely covered in snow, nice fluffy snow, everywhere snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Warm and sunny in the Alps at the moment, round here at any rate. Temperatures over 20 most of the day the last few days. Far warmer than this time last year. This year I'm walking in a T shirt. This time last year I was wearing a jacket, wool hat and gloves and there was plenty of frost in sheltered places, even into the afternoon.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w, that sort of comment doesn't cheer me up Sad
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News at Ten: Alpine weather in October has no effect on the weather in Winter...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:

Alpine weather in October has no effect on the weather in Winter...

Absolutely. Being cheered up by snow in early October is just as pointless as being disappointed by warm sunny days in the middle of the month. snowHead
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markP, I think you'll find this thread is the "Pointless snowfall speculation"

On that basis, me lighting candles around an alter containing my skis will ensure a good winter - I assume I am not the only snowHead who does this
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 brian
brian
Guest
markP, actually it probably does, only being able to discern exactly what the effect is among the general chaos is currently (way) beyond us.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
brian, Really? Does it? In October? Not in September then, or maybe August?
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Boris wrote:
markP, I think you'll find this thread is the "Pointless snowfall speculation"

On that basis, me lighting candles around an alter containing my skis will ensure a good winter - I assume I am not the only snowHead who does this


Don't you need to sacrifice a virgin as well?
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My prediction: some snow end of November, then warm until mid-March when it will Hoon it down for the end of the season. Skiing in Jan/Feb largely on artificial snow.
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davidof wrote:
My prediction: some snow end of November, then warm until mid-March when it will Hoon it down for the end of the season. Skiing in Jan/Feb largely on artificial snow.


You can go off people, you know.... wink
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
markP, who knows? Maybe? Again I refer you to the word "Pointless"

It will either snow, or it won't and there is bog all I can do to influence that.

bertie bassett, I'm struggling to find any
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
this season will be cold.. too cold
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Really? Does it? In October? Not in September then, or maybe August?

Yes, but not as much as in November......... the whole thing is inter-connected, but with so much else that in practice it's all pretty pointless. Which is what I meant. Bigger and bigger computers are being thrown at the question, and they are making some progress with long-term forecasting, but for most of us, it's just down to pointless speculation and lighting candles.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Boris wrote:

bertie bassett, I'm struggling to find any


I'm sure you'll find some on natives...but not for much longer than the 1st week of their season I guess...
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 brian
brian
Guest
Looking like an interesting alpine Tuesday night and Wednesday. Of course it's only October so signficant falls will probably be confined to above 2500m but it should then get cold enough for at least a whitening down below 2000.

Should at least make for some pleasant webcam viewing. Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Can someone tell me what the snow will be like in st. anton on the 22nd February 2013 please, as I'm looking to book a trip there.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
bertie bassett, White Toofy Grin
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It was a sunny 15c in Zermatt and Saalbach today.

Another October start to the Alpine season this year is looking highly unlikely.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I tell you what 'pointless snowfall speculation' is. snow-forecast and j2ski.

They periodically promise dumps of about 3 feet to occur next week, and as you approach the date in queston the estimate is revised downwards until you actually get there, when it becomes ~0.

Do they actually just make it up off the top of their heads, for giggles?
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Whitegold,

really?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well -there has been snow on Snowdon /Wales already! A good sign??????????? Does early snow in this country mean anything at all????
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
looks like snow in austria next week Smile A big drop in temps and snow forecast to low altitudes. Will it be a false start to winter?
http://91.121.93.17/pics/MS_1347_ens.png approx ski amade area.Whitegold, still time for an october start.
All pointless as i'm not in the alps at the moment.
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 brian
brian
Guest
I love it when Meteo Suisse start talking all snowy to me ....

De mardi à jeudi : souvent très nuageux avec quelques précipitations, plus fréquentes le long des Alpes. Limite des chutes de neige s'abaissant d'ici mercredi vers 800m, et jeudi jusqu'à basse altitude. Maxima en plaine entre 4 et 9°.

Very Happy
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Quote:

They periodically promise dumps of about 3 feet to occur next week, and as you approach the date in queston the estimate is revised downwards until you actually get there, when it becomes ~0.

Do they actually just make it up off the top of their heads, for giggles?

They also sometimes "promise" (sic) a few centimetres which becomes a whole lot more. Over the last five seasons I would say that snow-forecast has underestimated actual snowfall more often than overestimd it, for my own Alpine location at least, . Weather's like that. Read the thread on how to interpret the wigglies - one of my own resolutions for this coming season is to understand them better. Once you do that you'll be more aware of the limitations, and uses, of forecasts. I've said it before, but I'll say it again..... It would be useful if all forecasters put a "confidence rating" on their forecasts. Some do, and it's very useful. I'd go further and say I'd welcome a forecast which said "Sorry folks, it's all over the place at the moment; if we gave you a forecast for next week then it'd be no better than a guess. So there isn't one."
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pam w, I found that with SnowForecast too, underestimated Serre Che's snowfall on several occasions. Anyway, Metcheck have some black lines on their forecast for this week http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snow_forecast.asp?resortID=37 but I am not getting excited just yet.
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 brian
brian
Guest
Hmmm, the short range NMM is not nearly as enthusiastic about the upcoming snow as GFS (and hence snow-forecast, metcheck et al).

Maybe 20cm at 2000m vs GFS with more like a metre.

Time will tell. Confused
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 brian
brian
Guest
GFS 12z starting to scale down the numbers. Ho and indeed hum. Should make things look nice on the cams later this week though.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Helen Beaumont, that's a healthy number of black lines all the same snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Lou, like I say I am not getting too excited just yet.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
the amount of snow is not too much of an issue at the moment but if it gets really cold - and stays cold (big "if") that'll be a very good thing. It's no good if you get a metre of snow on a warm slope!
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 brian
brian
Guest
pam w, looks likely it will warm back up fairly quickly with the dreaded Foehn most probably arriving by the weekend.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
brian, oh well. It's very unusual to have serious snow which sticks around at the end of Oct/early Nov. That's why it's "pointless", I suppose. snowHead
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It may be pointless speculation but it helps with the pre-ski excitement. So maybe not so pointless. And the webcams will look just lovely Laughing
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bertie bassett wrote:
Can someone tell me what the snow will be like in st. anton on the 22nd February 2013 please, as I'm looking to book a trip there.
it dosent matter, your flight will be cancelled...
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The big question is, surely, whether the snow forecast for this week in Tamworth will be sufficient to ski outside the Snowdome? These questions have to be asked!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
it's all gone a bit quiet on this thread. Any views on the early season?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
tobymory, all white stuff is good stuff but it really is a bit early to think about the season proper yet, I would say
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Temperatures looking to drop with some good snow in the mix. I love the squiggly horizontal line to always be below the straight bottom line. Not the most technical of descriptions but you get the idea.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snow_forecast.asp?resortID=22

I am now getting excited
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